-- AMONG THE STATES WHERE THE OUTCOME IS UNPREDICTABLE AND WILL BE DECISIVE -- FIRST, WE WILL LEARN ABOUT THE POLL RESULTS FROM GEORGIA -- VOTING CENTERS CLOSE AT 1 AM OUR TIME: Georgia was the site of a very narrow victory for Biden in 2020, and it would be a major blow to Trump if he doesn't succeed this time -- writes The Hill. Siena College for the NYT projected a win for Harris in Georgia, but everything will depend on whether the mobilization of women voters in that state holds.-- NORTH CAROLINA ALSO FINISHES VOTING AROUND 1 AM, POSSIBLY EARLIER -- ESTIMATED PROJECTIONS MAY BE AVAILABLE AS EARLY AS 0:30 AM. Most polls indicate an advantage for Trump, but a Sunday New York Times/Siena College poll gave Harris a 3-point lead. This would be the first victory for a Democrat there since Obama's win in 2008.-- PENNSYLVANIA - THE MOST IMPORTANT BATTLEGROUND STATE ALSO ENDS VOTING AT 1 AM OUR TIME. The race here is completely unpredictable, although it is said that if Trump wins in PA, known as the Keystone State due to its historical role in the formation of the USA, his chances for the presidency will increase to 60%. Among the more respected polls at the end of the race, Emerson College gave Trump a 1-point lead, Atlas Intel gives him a 2-point lead, and Siena College for CNN shows a tie.-- WISCONSIN WILL FINISH VOTING AROUND 2 AM OUR TIME. HARRIS MUST WIN HERE TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE RACE FOR A MAJORITY IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE. WISCONSIN IS ONE OF THE DEMOCRATIC BLUE WALL STATES (along with Michigan and Pennsylvania). No Republican, except for Trump in 2016, has won any of these states in a presidential election since the 1980s. According to The Hill/DDHQ averages, the race here is a complete tie, while Harris leads by about 1 point in both the FiveThirtyEight model and Nate Silver's analysis.-- KAMALA SHOULD WIN IN MICHIGAN, WHERE THE LAST VOTING CENTERS WILL CLOSE AT 2 AM OUR TIME. The latest reliable polls in the state align with an extremely close race. The Emerson College/Nexstar poll gives Harris a 2-point lead, the Atlas Intel poll gives Trump a 2-point lead, and the New York Times/Siena College poll showed them tied.-- ARIZONA - ANOTHER IMPORTANT BATTLEGROUND STATE - FINISHES VOTING AT 4 AM, BUT VOTE COUNTING TAKES SEVERAL DAYS THERE. Trump should win in Arizona if he hopes for victory.-- NEVADA - THE SMALLEST OF THE BATTLEGROUND STATES, FINISHES VOTING AT 5 AM OUR TIME. Trump should win it, although Democrats have a very efficient direct campaign machine there, created by the late, legendary Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. According to averages, Trump leads in NV by a margin of 1.3 points.-- NATE SILVER GIVES A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF KAMALA WINNING: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model-- ATLAS INTEL, WHICH MOST ACCURATELY PREDICTED THE 2020 RESULTS, GIVES ALL DECISIVE BATTLEGROUND STATES TO TRUMP: https://x.com/atlas_intel/status/1853618261441-- IN ELECTORAL VOTES - 270 NEEDED, THE STATE OF PLAY ACCORDING TO KEY ANALYSTS IS AS FOLLOWS:FiveThirtyEight (ABC NEWS)Harris: 270Trump: 268Nate SilverHarris: 271Trump: 267DecisionDeskHQTrump: 275Harris: 263The EconomistHarris: 270Trump: 268Daily MailTrump: 287Harris: 251https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1853674650619744504-- THE STRONGER WE ARE OURSELVES, THE MORE ATTRACTIVE AN ALLY WE WILL BE TO WASHINGTON -- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Poland will always be strong through its alliance with the USA. But the stronger we are ourselves, the more attractive an ally we will be to Washington, regardless of who moves into the White House in January.”https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art41396071-michal-szuldrzynski-polska-musi-byc-silniejsza-bez-wzgledu-na-to-kto-wygra-w-usa-- THE MARKET WANTS TRUMP. HARRIS, REPRESENTING DEMOCRATIC ELITES -- BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “Kamala Harris's strengths are primarily predictability and social calm. The transactional Donald Trump brings hope to the market, but he can also become the black swan of chaos.”https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art41395891-boguslaw-chrabota-rynek-woli-donalda-trumpa-demokratyczne-elity-kamale-harris-- "I AM CLOSE TO THE PSL'S POSITION." CZARNEK ON PARTNERSHIP AND CLOSE PERSON STATUS -- 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/11/05/-- FIVE YEARS AGO, RAFAŁ ACHIEVED A MORAL VICTORY, BUT NOW WE NEED A REAL ONE. SINCE THEN, THE WORLD HAS CHANGED FOR THE WORSE, AND TODAY WE FACE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT CHALLENGES. WE NEED TO CHOOSE THE BEST CANDIDATE FOR THESE CONDITIONS -- RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI ON ONE-T.-- WE NEED A PRESIDENT WHO, INSTEAD OF SQUANDERING POLAND'S AUTHORITY, WILL MULTIPLY IT -- SIKORSKI FURTHER ON SIERAKOWSKI ON ONE-T: “We have statements from Donald Tusk, who is changing the views of the European mainstream, but we don't have the voice of the Polish president. This, in my opinion, is the greatest untapped reserve of the Polish presidency. We need a president who, instead of squandering Poland's authority, will multiply it. There is a saying in Washington that a diplomat can be better or worse than his country. The point is for the president to be at least as good as his country.”-- TIMES HAVE BECOME TRULY DANGEROUS, POLAND COULD BECOME THE INTELLECTUAL CENTER OF THE WEST, WE NEED TO BE A MODEL OF CONSTITUTIONAL ORDER, AN INSPIRATION IN MODERNIZATION IDEAS -- SIKORSKI FURTHER ON SIERAKOWSKI ON ONE-T: “Times have become truly dangerous. Russia has returned to the old ways of Russian and Soviet imperialism. Poland must play an active role in organizing the response of the entire West to this threat. But to do so effectively, it cannot dismantle democracy or the rule of law at home. We must be a model of constitutional order, an inspiration in modernization and defense ideas. In the absence of good ideas for the future in other European countries, Poland could become the intellectual center of the West.”-- SOMEONE AFRAID OF HOW THE INTERNET WILL REACT, OR SOMEONE UNSURE OF THEIR WORDS, WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SET THE TONE OF DEBATE -- SIKORSKI ON SIERAKOWSKI'S QUESTION ABOUT HIS UNGUARDED LANGUAGE: “Tens of millions of people have seen my two speeches at the UN Security Council. Someone who is afraid of how the internet will react, or someone who is unsure of their words, will not be able to set the tone of debate. And that's what politics is all about. It's about getting others to see the world through our eyes.”-- SIKORSKI TELLS SIERAKOWSKI ABOUT RECEIVING THE PRIME MINISTER FOR WEEKLY AUDIENCES: “I don't think it's the president's role to set the personnel policy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Ministry of National Defense. Because ministers have executive power and know who they want to work with. The president, however, has his role. If he received the prime minister for an audience once a week, he would be informed.”-- TRUMP'S PEOPLE PERCEIVE POLAND AS A CONSERVATIVE AND HISTORICALLY ANTI-COMMUNIST COUNTRY, SO WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR GREATER INFLUENCE THAN SOME WEST EUROPEAN POLITICIANS -- SIKORSKI FURTHER TELLS SIERAKOWSKI: “If Trump wins, we will see if we can influence his stance on Ukraine and Poland. Trump's people perceive Poland as a conservative and historically anti-communist country, so we have a chance for greater influence than some politicians from Western Europe and greater than our economic potential.”-- I RECENTLY TOLD THE AMERICAN SIDE THAT POLITICIANS FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE BARRICADE SHOULD BE INVITED TO ITS OPENING -- SIKORSKI ON THE OPENING OF THE ANTI-MISSILE BASE IN REDZIKOWO: “And of course, no one from our side was invited to the ceremony to commence work. Nevertheless, I recently told the American side that politicians from both sides of the barricade, all who contributed to its creation, should be invited to its opening.”https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/radoslaw-sikorski-mowi-o-tym-co-by-zrobil-jako-prezydent-wskazuje-na-antoniego/rckvm28,79cfc278-- I HAVE AN INTUITION THAT SIKORSKI, NOT TRZASKOWSKI, HAS A GREATER CHANCE IN THE SECOND ROUND TO BROADEN THE ELECTORATE TOWARDS THE CENTER-RIGHT -- CONVINCES MP JOANNA KLUZIK-ROSTKOWSKA -- IN THE ARTICLE BY IWONA SZPALA AND AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW.-- MANY COLLEAGUES FROM PO TOLD HER THEY THINK THE SAME BUT DON'T WANT TO SAY IT PUBLICLY -- FURTHER STATES KLUZIK-ROSTKOWSKA: “She adds that when she declared herself a supporter of Sikorski, many colleagues from PO told her they thought the same but didn't want to say it publicly, because ultimately, a narrow circle within PO will decide who will run for president.”-- THE PEASANTS STARTED TALKING ABOUT A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT CONCEPT: SOME BELIEVE THERE CAN BE NO QUESTION OF UNCONDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR A POLITICIAN WHO REACHES THE SECOND ROUND -- FURTHER SZPALA AND KUBLIK IN GW: “Within the party itself, the Peasants started talking about a slightly different concept: some believe there can be no question of unconditional support for a politician who reaches the second round. And if that politician is Rafał Trzaskowski, they will reconsider, because a better scenario is one where PO decides to field Sikorski after all.”https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31438662,trzaskowski-czy-sikorski-zagladamy-do-sondazy-i-pytamy-ekspertow.html-- PSL IS CLOSER TO SUPPORTING THE DECRIMINALIZATION OF ABORTION ASSISTANCE. "WE WERE STRONGLY CRITICIZED, AND THAT SPARKED REFLECTION IN US" -- ARTUR BRZOZOWSKI IN GW: "Wyborcza" has learned unofficially that there is a preliminary agreement among coalition party leaders not to reject the bill after the first reading but to refer it for further work in committee. It is known that representatives of PiS and Konfederacja will oppose it.”https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,31437505,psl-moze-poprzec-projekt-dekryminalizacji-pomocy-przy-aborcji.html-- CZARNEK IS NOT IDLING: HE IS STARTING A TOUR OF POLAND -- AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK AND DOMINIKA SITNICKA IN OKO.PRESS: “While the faction of Mateusz Morawiecki is doing everything to block this nomination, Przemysław Czarnek is not idling. Last Tuesday, the former Minister of Education began a tour of Poland. He will also be another PiS politician to visit the United States. Over the weekend, PiS MEP Dominik Tarczyński was at a Donald Trump rally. Mateusz Morawiecki is also sending reports from the USA. Karol Nawrocki was photographed with a Trump banner. Czarnek will be slightly late - he will arrive across the ocean only after the elections.”-- TRUMP WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR CZARNEK -- AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK: “If Donald Trump were to become President of the United States again, it would be a very important argument for Przemysław Czarnek's candidacy. Because in some aspects, he is a kind of Polish Donald Trump. He has that unvarnished language, he goes over the edge, he is not afraid to say something that is generally not said” – says Szczęśniak.”https://oko.press/jesli-trump-wygra-pomoze-przemyslawowi-czarnkowi-- BIRTHDAYS: Piotr Wierzbicki (89), Marek Dietl, Marcin Bosacki, Grażyna Kulczyk, Elżbieta Płonka.