state of play: 11/04/2024

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Szułdrzyński: Harris Missed Tusk's Lesson, Michalski: Tusk Symbolizes an Opening to Political Realism, Gursztyn: More Indicators Point to Nawrocki Than Czarnek

Łukasz Mężyk

-- "WE ARE NOT MAKING PIS'S MISTAKES, POLAND HAS BOTH FIELDS COVERED." SIKORSKI ON THE US ELECTIONS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/11/04/ -- SUBSIDIZING BILLS FROM THE STATE BUDGET DOES NOT ULTIMATELY SOLVE THE PROBLEM; IT WAS UNDER OUR PREDECESSORS THAT WHOLESALE ENERGY PRICES ROSE BY OVER 300 PERCENT. PAULINA HENNIG-KLOSKA IN CONVERSATION WITH IRENEUSZ SUDAK IN GW: “Every discussion about energy prices ends with an attack on the government, claiming that the government is exposing people to high bills. We want to care for citizens, but we also know that it must be done thoughtfully, using tools that meet people's needs and market realities. That is why we believe that help should go to those who need it most. It was under our predecessors that wholesale energy prices rose by over 300 percent. Subsidizing bills from the state budget does not ultimately solve the problem.” -- WILL PRICES FOR HOUSEHOLDS IN 2025 BE FROZEN? TO SOME EXTENT, YES - HENNIG KLOSKA IN RESPONSE TO SUDAK IN GW: “Money for this purpose has been partially secured in the budget, so to some extent, yes. We are observing the market situation, which is very dynamic. The scale and form of aid will depend on this.” https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,179190,31432815,ministra-klimatu-mrozenie-cen-energii-musi-byc-stopniowo-wygaszane.html -- WHAT KAMALA HARRIS FAILED TO GRASP IN TIME, WHILE DONALD TUSK UNDERSTOOD IN POLAND - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RP: “The main division of the West is becoming the dispute between liberal elites and masses needing strong identities. Donald Tusk has been trying for a year not to let Jarosław Kaczyński categorize him into the first group. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, allowed Donald Trump to do so.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41389081-michal-szuldrzynski-czego-w-pore-nie-zrozumiala-kamala-harris-a-zrozumial-w-polsce-donald-tusk -- "NON-BINARY IDENTITY" IS MERELY A PSYCHOSIS; POLITICALLY SERVICING PSYCHOSIS IS DECADENCE. PERHAPS THE GREATEST AND MOST DANGEROUS DECADENCE OF THE LIBERAL WEST TODAY, WHICH ALL ITS ENEMIES SO EASILY EXPLOIT - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “Liberalism, much like liberal conservatism, understood and accommodated social change. It shielded this change from radicalism, which always brings violence. Homosexuality is an identity, an eternal identity, one could say 'natural,' which should be protected by law in one way or another. 'Non-binary identity' is merely a psychosis (unlike queer, which was always cool because it was never an ideological pseudo-identity). Nostalgia for communism, for the 'wonderful global South,' for all worlds that never were, are not, and never will be, is also a psychosis. And if they existed and exist somewhere, they have always been and are worse than the liberal West. Politically servicing psychosis is decadence. Perhaps the greatest and most dangerous decadence of the liberal West today, which all its enemies so easily exploit.” -- MASS MIGRATION – WITHOUT ANY CRITERIA, WITHOUT A PLAN FOR ASSIMILATION – WILL DESTROY THE LIBERAL WEST – MICHALSKI FURTHER IN INTERIA: “Mass migration – without any criteria, without a plan for assimilation – will destroy the liberal West. To such an extent that in a generation or two, people wanting to escape the hell of the 'global South' will have nowhere to flee.” -- TUSK AS A CENTRIST SYMBOLIZES THE "MAINSTREAM'S" OPENING TO POLITICAL REALISM - MICHALSKI FURTHER IN INTERIA: “The only ally of the liberal center can be the liberal, Christian democratic, moderately conservative right. Tusk has understood this, but currently in a very specific way. He himself positions himself today in the center and center-right. He himself symbolizes the 'mainstream's' opening to political realism. He is not looking for (yet? may he start!) partners on the moderate right (within the coalition, outside the coalition). His political method still remains that of a radical soloist.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-jak-skrajna-prawica-i-skrajna-lewica-wspolnie-zabijaja-liber,nId,7848072 -- THE NEW TEAM DECIDED THAT PUBLIC TELEVISION WILL REMAIN IN A CIVIL WAR - ESTERA FLIEGER IN RP: “Why, if not to keep viewers in a sense of constant threat from 'the others' and to solidify divisions, does a program devoted to an event from seven years ago, interpreted in a specific way, serve? Where is this supposed to lead? And wasn't it supposed to be different?” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41388921-estera-flieger-skandaliczna-rozmowa-w-pytaniu-dnia-dokad-zmierza-nowa-tvp -- IF POLAND HAD THE INSTITUTION OF VICE PRESIDENT, CZARNEK WOULD BE PERFECT FOR THAT ROLE, ALONGSIDE A LESS KNOWN, AND THUS LESS NEGATIVELY PERCEIVED, PIS CANDIDATE - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RP: “From PiS's perspective, it would be best to field both a politician like Nawrocki and a politician like Czarnek in the presidential election – if Poland had the institution of vice president, Czarnek would be perfectly suited for that role, alongside a less known, and therefore less negatively perceived, PiS candidate. But Poland does not have a vice president, so PiS will have to take a risk one way or another. And the stakes are very high. That is why PiS is delaying the decision.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41388751-artur-bartkiewicz-miedzy-przemyslawem-czarnkiem-a-karolem-nawrockim-na-czym-polega-prezydencki-dylemat-pis -- THE ORDINARY PIO PEOPLE DESIRE SOMETHING ELSE – A PROMISE THAT WILL ADDITIONALLY BE FULFILLED - PIOTR GURSZTYN IN TYGODNIK SIECI: “The ordinary PiS people desire something else – a promise, which will additionally be fulfilled. First, the promise of victory. But for them, this is only a stage, a necessary condition for fulfilling the main promise. And that is the desire to build a strong, secure, and just state. A solidarity or even solidaristic one. Hence the support for ambitious investment plans, hence the acceptance of generous social policy, hence, finally, all manifestations of attachment to the Polish Army and other uniformed services.” -- THEY TALK TOO MUCH ABOUT THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT AND TOO LITTLE ABOUT THEMSELVES - GURSZTYN FURTHER: “A large part of the leading PiS politicians have entered a phase of dwelling on daily affairs. This is generally natural, as it stems from the role of being in opposition, meaning the duty to constantly review the government. Furthermore, the achievements from the period of the right-wing government are being attacked or even destroyed. It is difficult for them to remain silent. However, according to many of their voters, they are losing proportion. They talk too much about the current government and too little about themselves.” -- NAWROCKI IS A BETTER CANDIDATE FOR THE SECOND ROUND, BUT LESS SCRUTINIZED THAN CZARNEK - GURSZTYN FURTHER: “The second round is a time when the motivation of voting 'against,' voting for the 'lesser evil,' rather than voting for someone one likes, plays a significant role. This is also an argument against Czarnek. In this light, Nawrocki appears as an almost ideal candidate. But this is only because we know much more about Czarnek, and little about Nawrocki. The problem with him is that his biography has not been as thoroughly scrutinized as Czarnek's.” -- NAWROCKI'S AGE IS AN ADVANTAGE - GURSZTYN FURTHER: “Nawrocki's age is an advantage. He was born in 1983, and add to that his active passion for sports, which gives him even more vigor. In the eyes of public opinion, especially fickle voters who switch their votes every election, youth equals freshness. In the sense of a positive distinction from the world of politics, which many Poles consider dirty and bad. Czarnek is a few years older, born in 1977. This is not a difference that has any significant importance. With one exception. If Civic Platform fields Rafał Trzaskowski – born in 1972 – Czarnek is almost his contemporary, and only Nawrocki can present himself as a representative of the younger generation.” https://wpolityce.pl/tygodniksieci/711736-kto-kandydatem-pis-na-prezydenta -- THE UNITED SURVEYS POLL FOR WP SHOWS A LARGE LEAD FOR TRZASKOWSKI AND SIKORSKI IN HYPOTHETICAL SECOND ROUNDS AND SUPPORT FOR THE PIS CANDIDATE FROM CONFEDERATION VOTERS: “If there were a clash between Nawrocki and Trzaskowski in a potential second round, the mayor of the capital would win, with 55.8% of respondents in the poll pointing to him. The head of the Institute of National Remembrance, in turn, gained 37.6% support. The study emphasized that PiS and Confederation voters are in agreement – 94% of them would support the PiS candidate, while 91% of surveyed supporters of the ruling coalition would vote for Trzaskowski. In the Nawrocki – Sikorski comparison, the winner of the hypothetical second round would again be the Civic Coalition candidate. 54.1% of respondents indicated the Minister of Foreign Affairs, while the PiS candidate received 38.3%. Again, among PiS and Confederation supporters, Nawrocki received considerable support of around 93%. 94% of those sympathetic to the ruling camp would cast their vote for Radosław Sikorski.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/wybory/prezydenckie/news-kto-wygralby-druga-ture-wyborow-najnowszy-sondaz-prezydencki,nId,7848767 -- 21 YEARS AGO, President Kwaśniewski refused to appear before a parliamentary investigation committee examining the Rywin scandal. -- REFUSING TO APPEAR BEFORE THE RYWIN COMMITTEE, KWAŚNIEWSKI SAID: "I can appear, sing, and dance, but what for?" -- 10 YEARS AGO, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz became the leader of the Polish People's Party (PSL). -- BIRTHDAYS: Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz (turns 72), Tadeusz Fiszbach (89), Wojciech Czuchnowski, Sławomir Sierakowski, Jadwiga Zakrzewska, Katarzyna Pawlak-Mucha.

Łukasz Mężyk