state of play: 10/25/2024

POLITICAL GAME: Majmurek: The Most Constant Feature of This Presidency is Fleeting Enthusiasm, Fedorowicz from the Analytical Collective in RZ: Anti-Trzaskowski Campaign Raging Online

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THEY MADE PURGES. MINISTER MACIEJ GDULA ANNOUNCED AN AUDIT THAT DID NOT AND DOES NOT EXIST - SZYMON JADCZAK ON WP.PL: "It could be interesting," wrote Deputy Minister of Science Maciej Gdula in September, announcing the results of an audit at IDEAS NCBR. He did so after a storm erupted at the company over personnel changes, leading many world-class scientists to sever ties. Indeed, it is interesting. The audit Gdula announced does not exist. https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/zrobili-czystki-minister-maciej-gdula-zapowiadal-audyt-ktory-nie-istnial-i-nie-istnieje-7085047019993696a -- UNSTEADY POLSKA 2050. THIS IS HOW SZYMON HOŁOWNIA'S PARTY IS FALLING APART. "WE ACHIEVED PRACTICALLY NOTHING" - MONIKA WALUŚ ON ONEZET: "Resignation of the head of structures in Pomerania, reckonings in Lower Silesia, and bitterness in Lesser Poland - a year after the electoral euphoria, Szymon Hołownia's Polska 2050 is shaking at its foundations, and its activists are handing in their party cards. The first wave of departures occurred right after the local elections. Now, the reason for the resignation of subsequent members is different. 'I guess we can call it the liquidation of internal opposition,' a Lesser Poland activist tells Onet. The party's general secretary speaks of a 'cleansing stage.' https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/polska-2050-w-potrzasku-tak-sypia-sie-struktury-partii/8mrbppl,79cfc278 -- "WE NEED A MORE COMPOSED PERSON." NITRAS ON TRZASKOWSKI AS A "BETTER" CIVIC PLATFORM CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/10/25/ -- MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES ARE DELAYING THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES. SENTIMENTS ONLINE ARE CONSTANTLY CHANGING, INTERNATIONAL EVENTS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE ELECTIONS, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, WHO BECOMES PRESIDENT OF THE USA - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ. -- AT PRESENT, A MASSIVE PRESIDENTIAL PRE-CAMPAIGN IS UNDERWAY ON THE POLISH INTERNET, WHERE TRZASKOWSKI MAY BE BRANDED AS AN UN ELECTABLE CANDIDATE. ACCORDING TO THE EXPERT, THE PRE-CAMPAIGN IS ARTIFICIALLY INFLATED - FURTHER SZUŁDRZYŃSKI: "As Michał Fedorowicz of the European Analytical Collective Res Futura stated in the Wednesday podcast 'Rzecz w tym,' a massive presidential pre-campaign is currently underway on the Polish internet, during which Trzaskowski may be branded as an unelectable candidate – just as happened with Bronisław Komorowski in 2015. According to the expert, the pre-campaign is artificially inflated, as it's hard to believe that hundreds of thousands of real users are expressing sympathy for some candidates or antipathy towards others every day." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41346741-michal-szuldrzynski-trzaskowski-czy-sikorski-nawrocki-czy-czarnek-czego-nie-wiemy-pol-roku-przed-wyborami -- EVERYTHING SEEMS TAILORED FOR SIKORSKI - CLAIMS DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ IN NEWSWEEK, "EVERYTHING WILL BE DECIDED AFTER PIS ANNOUNCES ITS CANDIDATE. THEN WE WILL CONDUCT FOCUS GROUPS AND THOROUGHLY EXAMINE THE SECOND ROUND," A CIVIC PLATFORM POLITICIAN TELLS DŁUGOSZ: "The same survey – conducted in the summer, meaning before the informal start of the campaign and during reduced political activity after the local and European elections – indicates that the topics that are extremely important to voters are: security, immigration and border protection, energy security, the war in Ukraine, and the rule of law. Additionally, healthcare and the cost of living. Everything seems tailored for Sikorski. 'Everything will be decided after PiS announces its candidate. Then we will conduct focus groups and thoroughly examine the second round. Whoever has the greatest chances will become the candidate. There will be no other criteria,' assure PO politicians." https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/sentymentow-nie-bedzie-tusk-postawi-na-pewnego-zawodnika/7jwvd38,452ad802 -- IN SHORT: THERE IS CHAOS IN PIS AND NO GOOD CHOICE - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: "Kaczyński said at one of his press conferences: 'If there were no draws, perhaps a decision would have already been made. In short: we have many good candidates.' The truth is different. In short: there is chaos in PiS and no good choice." -- SAKIEWICZ THEREFORE CONSIDERS HIMSELF ALMOST EQUAL TO KACZYŃSKI AND DEMANDS TO BE TREATED WITH APPROPRIATE ATTENTION AND HIS ADVICE HEEDED. HE WILL TRY TO USE THE PRIMARIES TO PROMOTE HIS CANDIDATE - FURTHER WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: "Sakiewicz therefore considers himself almost equal to Kaczyński and demands to be treated with appropriate attention and for his advice to be listened to. But this is not happening; Sakiewicz's ego (and the fact that someone else has appeared who distributes important privileges, in this case, access to the airwaves, and thus to the electorate's consciousness) irritates him, so Sakiewicz will try to use the primaries to promote a candidate who will later look after the interests of Republika." -- MORAWIECKI MAY TAKE HIS TOYS AND MOVE TO ANOTHER YARD - FURTHER WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: "If Morawiecki is blocked and Czarnek wins the primaries, he will aspire to dominate the party. Then Morawiecki may take his toys and move to another yard." -- BUT IT MAY ALSO BE A GAME FOR INTERNAL USE, BECAUSE MORAWIECKI KNOWS WHAT HAPPENED TO THE BREAKAWAYS - FURTHER WIELOWIEYSKA: "Or perhaps Morawiecki's threats are just a game for internal use, and then everything will go back to normal? Because the former prime minister knows the history of previous rebellions in PiS, which ended either with the marginalization of the dissenters or their return with penance and ashes sprinkled on their heads. And he knows that by making his own move – although he has advantages, such as numerous people indebted to him – he is taking a significant risk." https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31407445,przyszly-prezydent-ma-zadbac-o-jego-interesy-prawybory-w-pis.html -- IF I RECEIVED SUCH A PROPOSAL, I COULD NOT SAY "NO" - KAROL NAWROCKI IN A CONVERSATION WITH PAWEŁ FIGURSKI AND PATRYK SŁOWIK ON WP: "We are talking about the most important position in the state. If I received such a proposal, I could not say 'no.' And it's not a matter of my ambitions, but of responsibility for Poland. The need to fight for Poland." -- TRZASKOWSKI ORDERS THE REMOVAL OF CROSSES IN WARSAW'S MUNICIPAL OFFICES. I AM SORRY, BUT SOMEONE LIKE THAT SHOULD NOT BE PRESIDENT - FURTHER NAWROCKI TO SŁOWIK AND FIGURSKI ON WP: "Rafał Trzaskowski is not a politician suitable to be president of Poland. I am connected to Christian values; Poland also has Christian foundations. And Trzaskowski orders the removal of crosses in the offices of the Polish capital. I am sorry, but someone like that should not be president." -- FOR SEVERAL MONTHS I HAVE BEEN HEARING THAT THINGS WERE BAD WHEN LAW AND JUSTICE WAS IN POWER, BUT I DON'T SEE A PLAN FOR MY HOMELAND. THERE IS SIMPLY NO SUCH PLAN - NAWROCKI TELLS SŁOWIK AND FIGURSKI ON WP: "For several months, I've been hearing that things were bad when Law and Justice was in power, but I don't see a plan for my homeland. There simply is no such plan. One must fight when one sees what is happening regarding the rule of law, around the national prosecutor, how the politics of memory is not functioning. There is only crude, media-driven harassment of PiS, but that is not what our homeland truly needs." -- I HAVE A COMPLETELY CLEAN RECORD, I DON'T MAKE A HABIT OF ASKING PEOPLE I MEET IF THEY FACE CRIMINAL LIABILITY - FURTHER NAWROCKI ON WP: "I trained boxing, it's no secret. And indeed, when entering the ring for sparring, I never asked my sparring partners if they had a clean criminal record. I considered it insignificant in the context of training. I think what's important is that I have a completely clean record. I have never been arrested, I haven't been in prison, I have no convictions, nor have any been expunged. I am a free man who has met many people throughout his life. From priests, presidents, professors, to those with whom I trained boxing. I don't make a habit of asking people I meet if they face criminal liability." https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/niekandydat-nawrocki-szef-ipn-trzaskowski-nie-jest-politykiem-nadajacym-sie-na-prezydenta-polski-7085175952673440a -- DUDA COULD TAKE A RISK AND TRY TO BUILD SOMETHING OF HIS OWN AROUND A CANDIDATE INDEPENDENT OF PIS, SUPPORTED BY HIM, BUT THE BLAME FOR THE RIGHT'S DEFEAT WOULD FALL ON HIM - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: "After leaving the Presidential Palace, the president will enter the fight for leadership on this side of the political scene as a private citizen, without his own party, institutional backing, or money. He could take a risk and try to build something of his own around a candidate independent of PiS, supported by him, in next year's presidential elections. However, if such a move ended with the victory of the Civic Platform candidate, the blame would fall on Duda, and it could be the end of his dreams of achieving anything after his presidency." -- THE MOST CONSTANT FEATURE OF THIS PRESIDENCY IS FLEETING ENTHUSIASM - FURTHER MAJMUREK: "After short periods when it seemed the president was engaging in the fight for real political agency, Andrzej Duda always returned to his old ways. The most constant feature of this presidency is, after all, the president's fleeting enthusiasm, his lack of determination to achieve long-term goals." -- DUDA MAY MOBILIZE OFTEN DISAPPOINTED, OR AT LEAST DISCOURAGED, VOTERS OF THE COALITION - FURTHER MAJMUREK IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: "The greatest paradox of Duda's presidency may turn out to be that by aggressively defending the changes in the justice system from 2015-23, the president will mobilize often today disappointed, or at least discouraged, voters of the October 15 coalition, to flock to the polls in the second round." https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2275509,1,andrzej-duda-ostatni-etap-w-sluzbie-twardej-opcji-pis-widzi-siebie-jako-nastepce-krolow.read -- 9 YEARS AGO PIS WON THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS... -- BIRTHDAYS: Krzysztof Piesiewicz, Romuald Szeremietiew, Stanisław Kalemba, Maria Naimska, Małgorzata Niemczyk.

Łukasz Mężyk