state of play: 10/21/2024
POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Populism's Enduring Strength in 2024 Contrasted with Communism's Decline in 1989, Dehnel on the Frustrations of Life in Germany, and the Curious Lack of Polls in the USA
-- POLITICO ON THE DE FACTO ABSENCE OF NEW POLLS IN THE USA: “That’s because there aren’t really any new polls — or at least many credible ones. And that makes it difficult to get a handle on how close the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is. It’s a striking lack of data with a week and a half to go until Election Day.”
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/20/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/polls-trump-harris-00184538
-- NATE SILVER LISTS 24 REASONS TRUMP COULD WIN, INCLUDING A TRUST CRISIS IN MEDIA FAVORING DEMOCRATS: “Trust in the media continues to fall to catastrophic levels. You can debate how much blame to assign between long-term conservative efforts to discredit the media, declining institutional trust, and various journalistic excesses and hypocrisies. But even legitimate criticism of Trump has trouble cutting through to the mass public. For instance, Trump’s conviction for a series of felonies barely moved the needle.”
https://www.natesilver.net/p/24-reasons-that-trump-could-win
-- THE PARTNERSHIP LAW WEAKENS THE SECURITY OF WOMEN WHO WANT TO HAVE A SECOND AND SUBSEQUENT CHILDREN - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The partnership law proposed by the government, while legally defining same-sex relationships on one hand, weakens the security of women who wish to have a second and subsequent children on the other. (...) The state should introduce solutions that strengthen the mother's position in the family, not encourage marriage in a 'light' version with a new law.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art41321201-michal-szuldrzynski-zwiazki-partnerskie-triumf-indywidualizmu-nad-przyszlosciowym-mysleniem-o-wspolnocie
-- THE EFFECT IS VERY BAD. A SIGNAL WAS SENT TO THE WORLD THAT EUROPE, DESPITE FACING UNPRECEDENTED CRISES, IS STILL DIVIDED INTO BETTER AND WORSE PARTS - BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI IN GW: “The effect is very bad. A signal was sent to the world that Europe, despite facing unprecedented crises, is still divided into better and worse parts. And that the old West wants to decide on matters that directly concern the new EU and NATO countries, over their heads. It seemed that the Russian invasion of Ukraine had caused a break from this paternalistic thinking. Has it?”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,31399839,wizyta-bidena-w-berlinie-uwage-przykuwa-zdjecie-na-ktorym.html
-- THIS SPECTACLE OF SCHOLZ IN BERLIN WAS VERY REMINISCENT OF ANDERSEN'S FAIRY TALE OF THE EMPEROR'S NEW CLOTHES - MAREK CICHOCKI IN RZ: “The future of Germany's relations with America may soon look quite bleak. The mutual fascination in Berlin's relations with Moscow has vanished irretrievably. Restoring trust in Germany in Europe will be difficult. That is why this spectacle of Scholz in Berlin was very reminiscent of Andersen's fairy tale of the Emperor's new clothes.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art41320711-marek-a-cichocki-nowe-szaty-berlina
-- “THE COMMENTS ARE UNEQUIVOCAL, POLAND WAS MISSING FROM THIS TABLE.” SZŁAPKA ON FRIDAY'S MEETING ON UKRAINE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/10/21
-- UNLIKE COMMUNISM IN 1989, POPULISM IN 2024 IS NOT AN EXHAUSTED AND COMPROMISED IDEOLOGY. QUITE THE CONTRARY: ITS IDEOLOGICAL FOUNDATIONS ARE BEING EXPANDED AND ARE DOING EXTREMELY WELL - KAROLINA WIGURA AND JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Unlike communism in 1989, populism in 2024 is not an exhausted and compromised ideology. Quite the contrary: its ideological foundations are currently being expanded and are doing extremely well. Just a few years ago, populism resembled a media strategy more than a consolidated worldview and political proposition. Today, things are different. Anti-Westernism, anti-immigration, anti-elitism – these are all elements of a new populist ideology (whether it's 'thin' or 'thick,' as experts debate). A living ideology that generates political programs, like the American 'Project 2025' – and remains convincing to many voters in Poland and abroad.”
-- THE GOVERNMENT'S TREATMENT OF ACADEMIA, CULTURE, AND INTELLECTUALS IS ALARMINGLY REMINISCENT OF THE PLATFORMA OBYWATELSKA GOVERNMENT'S CONDUCT BETWEEN 2007-2015 - WIGURA AND KUISZ FURTHER IN KL: “Tusk himself often speaks in an interesting way, but it is difficult to expect that such solo performances will be enough. Furthermore, the government's treatment of people in academia, culture, and intellectuals is alarmingly reminiscent, unfortunately, of the conduct of the Civic Platform government from 2007-2015.”
-- THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN IN 2027, CERTAINLY NOT ON THIS SCALE - KUISZ AND WIGURA'S CONCLUSION IN KL: “The 2023 elections were won by the current ruling coalition through mobilization against eight years of PiS rule. This will not happen again in 2027, certainly not on this scale. The goal of the current government was not solely to tidy up after populists, but to tangibly strengthen state institutions, stabilize liberal democracy in uncertain times, and fundamentally improve the living conditions of Poles. This is what the coalition government of Tusk will be judged on.”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/10/15/co-do-licha-dzieje-sie-w-polsce-z-okazji-rocznicy-wyborow-15-pazdziernika-2023/
-- CLOSE DOWN "800+". TIME FOR NEW PROGRAMS - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “We should say goodbye to the '800+' program, the illusion that a handful of silver coins can convince Poles to have children. This program is pure politics, buying votes. A superficial measure that prevents more rational social policy.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41321171-boguslaw-chrabota-zamknac-800-czas-na-nowe-programy
-- JACEK GĄDEK ON ZIOBRO'S NEXT SURGERY - WRITES IN NEWSWEEK: “The former minister is scheduled to travel to Belgium in November for another procedure – it is to be an expansion of an artificially formed esophagus. Compared to the main operation he has already undergone, this one is not very risky.”
-- GĄDEK QUOTES COALITION POLITICIANS ON ZIOBRO'S CONDUCT: “– Ziobro overplayed his hand by publishing drastic photos from his surgery. He is functioning relatively normally now. He's no longer playing the card of his illness – says a person close to the commission. Another expresses himself even more sharply: – Ziobro has crossed the line of grotesque. He publishes photos from his surgery months ago, and at the same time is seen shopping normally.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/pogon-za-zbigniewem-ziobra-i-spolka-jego-ludzie-boja-sie-aresztu/958b883
-- HA, HA, JACEK DEHNEL ON GERMANY'S BACKWARDNESS - IN AN INTERVIEW WITH JACEK TOMCZUK IN NEWSWEEK: “At first, our problems with Berlin were few: technological backwardness, terrible internet, inability to pay with a card in many places, trouble opening an account (an official kicked us out of the bank because we asked in broken German if we could open an account in English), but at least we were protected from bureaucracy by being on a scholarship. The difficulties only started later.”
-- IT IS ALSO EXHAUSTING TO CONSTANTLY DEAL WITH PASSIVE-AGGRESSIVE PEOPLE WHO COMPLAIN ABOUT EVERYTHING, CONSTANT MICROAGGRESSIONS - DEHNEL FURTHER WITH TOMCZUK IN NEWSWEEK: “It is also exhausting to constantly deal with passive-aggressive people who have complaints about everything. The problem can be lending a token for a museum wardrobe, leaving an disproportionate umbrella, every such issue escalates to the rank of a rights violation. And this happens several times a day, constant microaggressions.”
-- I DON'T KNOW, PERHAPS IT IS TRADITIONAL PRUSSIAN RUDENESS. THEY CAN ADD IT TO THE LIST OF INTANGIBLE CULTURAL HERITAGE OF UNESCO - SAYS DEHNEL TO TOMCZUK IN NEWSWEEK: “I've heard such stories; they haven't happened to me personally. I speak in broken German, but people in service here are often rude regardless of the language spoken. I've been told it's a kind of 'local charm.' I don't know, perhaps it's traditional Prussian rudeness. They can put it on the UNESCO list of intangible cultural heritage, but even then I prefer to be treated politely. Besides, we encounter this elsewhere too – these are behaviors from Bareja's films, which have practically died out in Poland.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/spoleczenstwo/jacek-dehnel-rezygnuje-z-berlina-slyszac-polszczyzne-robia-jakies-dzikie-miny/tkdwx26
-- 17 YEARS AGO, PLATFORMA WON EARLY ELECTIONS.
-- 14 YEARS OF PIOTR DUDA AT THE HEAD OF SOLIDARNOŚĆ.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Jacek Nizinkiewicz, Marcin Ociepa.
live
9 hours
8 hours
„It was awesome.” — Morawiecki asked about his meeting in Dębica
9 hours
„That old communist shouldn't be Marshal of the Sejm.” — Morawiecki on Czarzasty
9 hours
„They Don't Bother Me At All." Morawiecki on "Attacks” — from within the United Right Camp
9 hours
„I Want to Address All Local Government Officials.” — Morawiecki on a New Program
9 hours
„An Absolutely Shameless Letter from Communist Apparatchiks.” — Morawiecki on Siwiec's Letter Regarding National Security Bureau Topics
9 hours
„Let's Demand This Questionnaire Be Filled Out.” — Morawiecki on Czarzasty's Security Survey
13 hours
„It's Worth Knowing Who We're Dealing With.” — Prime Minister Poses with Anne Applebaum's Book
15 hours
Czarzasty: I Have Access to All the Most Secret Information
15 hours
Sikorski's Sejm Address Postponed. Czarzasty Announces New Date
state of play
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