-- 34 TRZASKOWSKI, 22 NAWROCKI, 10 HOŁOWNIA, 9 MENZEN, 8 DZIEMIANOWICZ, 4 MATYSIK - RZ POLL. https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41296671-nowy-sondaz-dla-rzeczpospolitej-jest-jeden-faworyt-wyborow-prezydenckich -- Wednesday's political agenda: Duda's address in the Sejm, Tusk at EFNI, Lewica on migration solutions, PiS press conference with Morawiecki, Nowacka in Szczawno-Zdrój https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/10/16/   -- THE VENICE COMMISSION'S OPINION MAY SUBSIDIARILY WEAKEN THE RADICAL ACCOUNTABILITY TREND PROMOTED BY JUDICIAL ACTIVISTS - TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: “I don't think the Venice Commission's opinion will be a turning point in Donald Tusk's and Minister Adam Bodnar's policy towards the courts. But it may subsidiarily weaken the radical accountability trend promoted by activists from judicial organizations.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art41297951-tomasz-pietryga-komisja-wenecka-czyli-wyzsza-madrzejsza-instancja -- POLITICS REMAINS STUPID, ALTHOUGH IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BECOME WISER AFTER OCTOBER 15TH. WE HOPE THAT IF IT DIDN'T HAPPEN AFTER THAT OCTOBER, MAYBE IT WILL AFTER THIS ONE? IF NOT AFTER THAT ONE, THEN PERHAPS AT LEAST AFTER OURS? - JERZY BACZYŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2274483,1,zduraczenie.read -- ONE YEAR AFTER THE ELECTION. PIS LEADS THE RANKING - INTERIA QUOTES AN IBRIS POLL FOR WYDARZENIA POLSATU: “The most votes went to Law and Justice, which was indicated by 31.3 percent of respondents. The Civic Coalition took second place with 30.7 percent. Confederation closed the podium with 9.8 percent support. Third Way found itself just outside the podium, gaining 9.3 percent of the votes. Respondents gave the weakest support to Lewica, which took fifth place with 7.3 percent of the votes. According to the IBRiS poll for "Wydarzenia" Polsatu, 11.5 percent of respondents could not indicate their political favorite.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-nowy-sondaz-na-rocznice-wyborow-tak-glosowaliby-polacy,nId,7836089 -- TODAY THE POPULISTS WOULD WIN, A HUGE SCALE OF ELECTORAL DEMOBILIZATION - ONE OF THE CONCLUSIONS OF THE NEW REPORT BY PRZEMYSŁAW SADURA AND SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA (ALSO PUBLISHED IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA): “Record voter turnout of almost 75 percent would drop by more than a third within a year, which best illustrates the scale of electoral demobilization we are dealing with. (...) This clearly indicates which electorate would stay home this time: precisely those who decided the outcome of the October elections. These are: young people, young and middle-aged women, residents, and especially female residents of large cities, supporters of democratic parties, counting on the fulfillment of election promises, including those regarding women's rights. It is not surprising that in such a situation, the election results would be diametrically different from the outcome of the 2023 vote.” -- PIS 30, KO 28, KONF 15, LEWICA 8, 3D 7 - CATI POLL CONDUCTED BY IPSOS BETWEEN SEPTEMBER 10-18 FOR SIERAKOWSKI AND SADURA. -- THE DISINTEGRATION OF THE THIRD WAY - CONTINUES SIERAKOWSKI AND SADURA: “is nothing more than the gradual absorption by the Civic Coalition of the electorates of coalition partners, i.e., Lewica and Poland 2050 (but not PSL anymore). If only PiS and KO remain on the political scene, it is possible that the attractiveness of Confederation will increase even further, as it can already potentially draw voters from various directions.” -- CONFEDERATION ON THE WAY TO 20 PERCENT SUPPORT - STILL IN THE REPORT BY SADURA AND SIERAKOWSKI: “The social reach of Confederation is almost as high as PiS, but significantly fewer people, only 17 percent of respondents, consider this party the most important, while as many as 26 percent are open to voting for it.” -- IDENTITY CRISIS WITH THE GOVERNMENT - SIERAKOWSKI AND SADURA WRITE FURTHER IN THE REPORT: “However, even among the allies of the Civic Coalition, in the electorate of Third Way and Nowa Lewica, there is no shortage of critical or reserved assessments of the government's actions. In both these groups, the percentage of people who consider the government to be "theirs" only in certain situations outweighs the percentage of people identifying with the current cabinet. Among KO voters, naturally, assessments indicating support prevail, but even here, every third voter (35 percent) has doubts on this matter. (...) Voters of KO's coalition partners identify with the government to a small or medium extent, and they rate its actions on a school scale of 1-6 as a "poor C." They are very critical.” -- TRZASKOWSKI ON THE HIGHWAY TO THE PRESIDENCY - CLAIM SADURA AND SIERAKOWSKI: “For voters outside the hard PiS electorate, a candidate generationally closer to someone like Kacper Płażyński would be better, but would the older electorate of the party itself accept him? Another serious competitor for Trzaskowski, alongside the "PiS candidate" (as long as he remains anonymous), would be Krzysztof Bosak. In both these scenarios, Trzaskowski's opponents could count on over 40 percent of the votes and would lose to the potential KO candidate by only a few percentage points.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/ukryty-kryzys-wladzy-nowy-raport-sierakowskiego-i-sadury/ -- ONE YEAR AFTER THE ELECTION, WE HAVE A PLATFORM GOVERNMENT FOR PLATFORM VOTERS. AND NO ONE ELSE - GRZEGORZ SROCZYŃSKI IN GAZETA.PL: “By engaging in anti-PiS radicalism, the government has not found time to address any other needs. The PO electorate is ecstatic, while the rest are increasingly confused and discouraged. One might even get the impression that for this government, everything that is not aggressively "platformer-like" is an enemy.” -- IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY - ON THE FIRST ANNIVERSARY OF THE "DEMOCRATIC UPRISING," IN WHICH "POLES SHOWED THEIR LOVE FOR FREEDOM" - PIS AND CONFEDERATION WOULD PROBABLY FORM A GOVERNMENT, BECAUSE THE GOVERNMENT'S TIME WAS SPENT ON STUPID FIGHTS WITH PIS, CONSTANT VERBAL RADICALIZATION - CONTINUES SROCZYŃSKI IN GAZETA.PL: “Perhaps I'll put it more clearly: if elections were held today – on the first anniversary of the "democratic uprising," in which "Poles showed their love for freedom" – PiS and Confederation would probably form a government (they would even have 250 seats). What went wrong? Why hasn't Tusk's government attracted anyone new? Probably because it didn't even try. It directed all its attention to serving its own radical electorate (mainly Platform supporters) and keeping them excited. The government's time was spent on stupid fights with PiS, constant verbal radicalization, beating the drum of accountability, and tales of what we would do to them (PiS members) very soon, but at the same time, there are almost no real achievements in repairing the state to be seen.” -- EXPERTS ALSO DON'T REALLY KNOW WHAT THIS GOVERNMENT INTENDS TO DO IN THE LONGER TERM THAN THE NEXT MEDIA BATTLE WITH PIS - STILL SROCZYŃSKI IN GAZETA.PL: “If, dear ordinary citizen, you think you don't know about these long-term plans because perhaps you're not interested enough, you don't have time to delve into them, then I must correct you. Experts, non-governmental organizations, and specialist journalists who follow specific topics also don't really know what this government intends to do in the longer term than the next media battle with PiS.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,31382719,rok-od-wyborow-mamy-rzad-platformy-dla-wyborcow-platformy-i.html -- SADURA ON THE OCTOBER 15 GENERATION: THERE IS NO SUCH THING. TODAY THESE PEOPLE WOULD NOT GO TO THE ELECTIONS - IN AN INTERVIEW WITH DANIEL DROB IN GAZETA.PL: “Today, these people would not go to the polls. Young people get disappointed quickly. The protests after the Constitutional Tribunal's ruling were an incredible phenomenon, but when it turned out six months later that nothing came of the demonstrations, moods began to decline. This energy was revived just before the 2023 elections. People wanted to demonstrate that they had enough of the old guard in power, and women demanded their rights and agency.” -- TUSK IS LIKE A TSAR, THIS IS HUMILIATING FOR PARTNERS - SADURA CONTINUES WITH DROB IN GAZETA.PL: “Tusk is like a tsar. He constantly emphasizes his individual decision-making. He publicly scolds ministers, orders them to implement certain solutions. This is humiliating for partners.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,31379464,sadura-o-pokoleniu-15-pazdziernika-nie-ma-czegos-takiego-dzisiaj.html -- AT THE CIVIC COALITION CONVENTION, DONALD TUSK SPOKE LIKE KACZYŃSKI AND LIKE THOSE LEADERS, WITH TRUMP AT THE HEAD - MAGDALENA ŚRODA IN GW: “At the Civic Coalition convention, Donald Tusk spoke like Kaczyński and like those leaders, with Trump at the head, who, to strengthen their power, employ Bauman's policy of 'securitization,' i.e., providing 'security' by previously frightening citizens with various enemies. Kaczyński invented his own and – as we remember – they were "gender," LGBT, as well as germs and parasites carried by refugees, dangerous to the national body.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31383028,tusk-i-jego-polska-obyczajowosc.html -- EVERYONE, REGARDLESS OF WHO THEY ARE – AND THEY MAY OFTEN BE CRIMINALS FROM SYRIA TRAINED BY BELARUSIAN SERVICES FOR AGGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR – WILL REMAIN ON OUR TERRITORY - PRIME MINISTER DONALD TUSK IN A CONVERSATION WITH BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI IN GW: “Everyone, regardless of who they are – and they may often be criminals from Syria trained by Belarusian services for aggressive behavior – will remain on our territory. Regardless of whether they have the right to asylum or not. I am deliberately using such strong terms because, together with the services of other NATO countries, we are increasingly precisely defining the elements of this Moscow and Minsk strategy regarding its use as a weapon against the European Union, especially against Poland.” -- THE FUTURE OF EUROPE AND POLAND WILL BE DECIDED IN THIS ARENA. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER RIGHT-WING POPULISTS WILL PROVIDE IT, OR LIBERAL DEMOCRACY - CLAIMS TUSK TO WIELIŃSKI: “Because security, respect for rules, and law enforcement are the fundamental needs of a citizen. The future of Europe and Poland will be decided in this arena. The only question is whether right-wing populists will provide it, or liberal democracy. We have read hundreds of articles stating that during a pandemic, crisis, or war, democracy must lose to authoritarianism. But many years ago, I ingrained in myself that it doesn't have to be that way. Democrats – both in domestic and foreign policy – cannot be helpless, powerless, incapable of action and confrontation.” -- IF I HAVE LOST THE SYMPATHY OF CERTAIN PEOPLE, I AM PAYING THE PRICE THAT NEEDS TO BE PAID - SAYS TUSK TO WIELIŃSKI WHEN ASKED ABOUT HOLLAND, AMONG OTHERS: “It was my duty, even if it is unacceptable to people more sensitive to human suffering. The state is power, and when there is no other option, we must use it to protect the borders. If I have lost the sympathy of certain people, I am paying the price that needs to be paid.” -- I WILL ALSO URGE EUROPE TO RETURN, REGARDLESS OF THE ELECTION RESULTS IN THE STATES, TO A SERIOUS CONVERSATION ABOUT A FREE TRADE AREA - SAYS TUSK TO WIELIŃSKI: “I will also urge Europe to return, regardless of the election results in the United States, to a serious conversation about a free trade area. America consists of millions of people who understand how many good deals can be made with Europe. And that neither they nor we truly have any other, better partner. So there is nothing to fear here, we just need to do everything to develop the strongest possible ties, regardless of the election results.” -- WHO WILL BE HIM? - THE PERSON WHO SPOKE AT OUR LAST CONVENTION - TUSK ON WIELIŃSKI'S QUESTION ABOUT THE CIVIC COALITION'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: “ - And when will we know the Civic Coalition's presidential candidate? - On Saturday, December 7th. Who will be him? - The person who spoke at our last convention.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31386822,donald-tusk.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Maciej Wąsik, Michał Kuczmierowski, Tomasz Cimoszewicz, Jerzy Kwieciński, Jarosław Katulski, Zbigniew Dziewulski.