state of play: 10/12/2024

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Stankiewicz: Tusk is skeptical, fears the presidential election; Gądek: The party leader considers Duda a moral and political bankrupt

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 80 DAYS UNTIL THE END OF THE YEAR! -- WE HAVE PREPARED IT IN WRITING, I WILL PRESENT THE GOVERNMENT STRATEGY 'REGAIN CONTROL, ENSURE SECURITY'. I WILL PRESENT IT NOW, AT 15:00, AT THE GOVERNMENT SESSION, SO THAT IT BECOMES THE GOVERNMENT STRATEGY - TUSK AT THE KO CONVENTION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/10/12/ -- TUSK USED THE BREXIT SLOGAN - TAKE BACK CONTROL. -- FAKT ON THE COVER, VERY UNPLEASANTLY: 74 SHORT OF 100 CONCRETE PROMISES. https://www.egazety.pl/rasp/e-wydanie-fakt.html -- ON THE GW COVER, A PHOTOSHOPPED IMAGE OF A HUGE DONALD TUSK WITH A SWARM OF SMALLER COALITION PARTNERS AND A TINY ZANDBERG. https://www.egazety.pl/agora/e-wydanie-gazeta-wyborcza.html -- A YEAR WITHOUT KACZYŃSKI IN POWER IS STILL THE MOST IMPORTANT ACHIEVEMENT OF THE CURRENTLY RULING COALITION, BUT FOR THE "UNDECIDED" IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO MOBILIZE THEM IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “A year without Kaczyński in power is still the most important achievement of the currently ruling coalition. For the hard and soft electorate of liberal Poland, this is still enough. For the hard electorate of PiS, it's still a pretext for mobilization. However, for the "undecided," a year without Kaczyński in power is not enough for them to mobilize in the 2025 presidential election. Not to mention the parliamentary elections in three years.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-rok-koalicji-to-glownie-rok-bez-kaczynskiego-u-wladzy,nId,7834296 -- TUSK IS SKEPTICAL. HE FEARS THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN NEWSWEEK: “So why is Tusk skeptical? Surveys commissioned by the Prime Minister's entourage show that supporters of the current government are disgruntled by unfulfilled promises, the lack of effective accountability for PiS, and quarrels within the coalition.” -- THE PARTY LEADER HAS AN ASTONISHING WEAKNESS FOR GANGSTERS. BUT IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE ANYTHING THAT WOULD BLOCK A PIS CANDIDATE FROM REACHING THE SECOND ROUND - CLAIMS STANKIEWICZ IN NEWSWEEK: “Tusk and the KO campaign staff assume that Kaczyński will opt for the President of the Institute of National Remembrance, Karol Nawrocki. It promises a deep dive into his biography, searching for connections with dubious circles – because the party leader has an astonishing weakness for gangsters. But it is hard to imagine anything that would block a PiS candidate from reaching the second round. And the second round is a completely new situation – extreme polarization plus voter flows from those eliminated in the first round.” -- TUSK WANTS TO AVOID THE IMPRESSION THAT HE WANTS TO STARVE THE OPPOSITION WITH EASTERN CUSTOM - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES IN ONE INTERVIEW: “But now the Prime Minister is no longer so decisive. He wants to avoid the impression that he wants to starve the opposition with Eastern custom, and that's how it will look from the perspective of Brussels, and above all, Washington.” -- TUSK'S CANDIDACY - AS I HEAR - IS OUT OF THE QUESTION - CLAIMS STANKIEWICZ: https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/tusk-straszy-przegrana-boi-sie-o-wybory-prezydenckie-kulisy/d0hpejw -- THE PIŚ LEADERSHIP HAS ABSORBED WARSAW. OVER THESE EIGHT YEARS, WE HAVE BECOME A PARTY OF RETIRED CONSERVATIVE LEMMINGS - EXCLAIMS A NEWSWEEK SOURCE - JACEK GĄDEK: “– The PiS leadership has absorbed Warsaw. Over these eight years, we have become a party of retired conservative lemmings. Lemmings just more conservative than those from Wilanów. People in the party feel this division: between the Warsaw elite, who know best, and those in the provinces – laments a Newsweek source from that formation.” -- THE PARTY LEADER CONSIDERS ANDRZEJ DUDA A MORAL AND POLITICAL BANKRUPT – HE DOESN'T SAY IT PUBLICLY, BUT HE DOES PRIVATELY - CONTINUES GĄDEK. -- JAROSŁAW THOUGHT THAT SINCE HE HIMSELF DIDN'T RAISE A PARTY YOUTH, HE WOULD TAKE THOSE FROM SP, BECAUSE THEY ARE GOOD AT SOCIAL MEDIA – ADDS GĄDEK'S SOURCE IN NEWSWEEK: “Confederation is taking our young right-wing voters – claims a source from PiS. Even Sovereign Poland, merging with PiS, was a better magnet for young wolves. – Jarosław thought that since he himself didn't raise a party youth, he would take those from SP, because they are good at social media – adds our source.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/kaczynski-ma-dzis-jeden-fetysz-to-jest-jak-pulapka/jnxtckz -- AFTER THIS PROMOTION, CZARNEK WILL BECOME THE THIRD, AND ACCORDING TO SOME, EVEN THE SECOND PERSON IN THE PARTY - SEBASTIAN BIAŁACH IN ONE INTERVIEW: “At the explicit request of the PiS leader, Przemysław Czarnek will enter the central party structures. After this promotion, the former Minister of Education will become the third, and according to some, even the second person in the party. - Przemek will be second only to God, meaning Jarosław Kaczyński. He wants to build the party in his own image – says one of the important politicians of Law and Justice to us in the Sejm when asked about the changes that will soon take place in the party.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/pierwszy-po-bogu-przemyslaw-czarnek-znacznie-awansuje-w-strukturach-pis/f6s1czl,79cfc278 -- IN A BESIEGED FORTRESS, INTERNAL REFORMS USUALLY DON'T GO WELL - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “In a situation where PiS is the subject of constant persecution and prosecutorial accusations, can one think about any reform of the party, about its real, not just symbolic, rejuvenation, about changing the language? In a besieged fortress, internal reforms usually go poorly. It's even harder to have unrestrained discussions.” -- FOR ME, IT'S MORE LIKE A "DEMOCRATURA" - AUTHORITIES ELECTED IN FREE ELECTIONS BREAK THE LAW AND STANDARDS - WRITES ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “One can understand that in his last interview for "Sieci" he described Donald Tusk's current system of governance as a nascent dictatorship. For me, it's more like a 'democratura' – authorities elected in free elections break the law and standards. But when the party leader got caught up in announcing changes after his potential victory, he entangled himself in contradictions.” -- IN A COURT-LIKE PARTY, RISK IS NOT WELL REGARDED - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “Sometimes it's worth taking a risk. But in a court-like party, such a risk is not well regarded. And in a court-like party that is turning into a besieged fortress, it's doubly difficult to take risks.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-przed-kongresem-czy-pis-owi-pozostalo-tylko-zwieranie-szereg,nId,7833871 -- SO FAR, MORAWIECKI SEEMS TO BE TESTING THE THIN RED LINES DEFINING THE BOUNDARIES OF WHAT IS PERMISSIBLE IN PiS - GLOWACKI CONTINUES IN OKO: “However, there is a lack of any decisive evidence that Morawiecki actually intends to embark on a separate path of development for his political career and fight either for the takeover of PiS or for building his own formation on the right. So far, Morawiecki seems to be testing the thin red lines defining the boundaries of what is permissible and what is not in PiS, rather than breaking them. His behavior at the PiS congress is therefore worth careful observation – because it will tell us a lot about the relationship between one of the most important PiS politicians and the party leader and his entourage.” -- THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THE CHOICE HAS ALREADY BEEN MADE - GLOWACKI IN OKO ON HOW TO READ KACZYŃSKI'S SPEECH: “If someone from the presidential list stands on the congress arena next to the party leader, is mentioned by name in his speech, or gets the chance to give their own speech, it could be a sign that the choice has already been made.” https://oko.press/co-nam-powie-o-partii-kaczynskiego-jej-sobotni-kongres -- ON OCTOBER 15, NOT A CHANGE, BUT AN EXCHANGE TOOK PLACE. BUT YOU WON'T PUT THESE DREAMS TO SLEEP ANYMORE - DOMINIKA LASOTA, ACTIVIST OF THE EAST INITIATIVE AND THE INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENT FRIDAYS FOR FUTURE WRITES IN RZ: “After the election high, the patriarchal political system hit us again, but our militancy, our ability to urge the older men, our demands and our readiness to fight for them – they are still within us. They can clearly overthrow systems, as confirmed by President Kaczyński himself, admitting that perhaps their attack on women was a mistake. So perhaps the time has come to remember our dreams and start building something new?” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art41281111-dominika-lasota-15-pazdziernika-nastapila-nie-zmiana-a-zamiana-ale-tych-marzen-juz-nie-uspicie -- KOSINIAK IS TRYING TO MAINTAIN A MINIMUM OF CONTINUITY - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “sometimes defended half-heartedly, but recently more often attacked by his predecessor Mariusz Błaszczak, especially for delaying military equipment transactions, he is trying to maintain a minimum of continuity. Kukła is under the protective umbrella of President Andrzej Duda, who would also have to agree to his replacement. Kosiniak-Kamysz has a not-so-bad relationship with the Presidential Palace. This should be enough for the Chief of Staff not to feel threatened.” -- ZAREMBA ON ANDRZEJCZAK AND THE INCREASING PRESENCE OF MILITARY PERSONNEL IN THE DEBATE - CONTINUES IN RZ: “Viewers surprisingly got to know the general as a distinguished gentleman, using impeccable Polish, an erudite well-versed in various issues. This led to rumors that Andrzejczak is preparing to announce his candidacy for president in the 2025 election.” https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art41275301-czy-general-kukula-zapowiada-wojskowych-w-polityce-czekamy-na-polskiego-petra-pavele -- ON SUNDAY, IT WILL BE 5 YEARS SINCE THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS THAT GAVE PIS ITS SECOND TERM. -- BIRTHDAYS: Andrzej Sliwka, Piotr Legutko, Cezary Olejniczak, Robert Wardzała. SUNDAY: Stanisław Rakoczy, Paweł Bejda, Mirosław Kochalski, Piotr Gursztyn.

Łukasz Mężyk