state of play: 08/29/2024
POLITICAL GAME: Burnetko on Tusk's 'Mistake of the Year' and Janicki on PiS Benefiting from Every Crack in the Divide
-- MARCINIAK: WE WERE FLOODED WITH LETTERS, EVERY MINISTRY, MP, OR MEP FELT OBLIGED TO SEND US WRITTEN COMMUNICATIONS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/08/29
-- TUSK NEVER HAD A PROBLEM ADMITTING MISTAKES. BUT THIS ONE WILL COST HIM DEARLY - DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ ON NEWSWEEK PORTAL: “They say straight out, 'this is a slap in the face for us.' The most loyal fans of the government and the ruling party are equally frustrated, perhaps slowly losing track of what the Prime Minister is trying to achieve. And thirdly, it's an image-damaging mistake that will be truly difficult to recover from. After all, are we dealing with seasoned politicians or novices who can be handed any document to sign?”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/ten-blad-donalda-tuska-bedzie-sporo-kosztowac-premier-wkurzyl-wszystkich/
-- CALM DOWN, IT'S JUST A MISTAKE. TUSK HASN'T CALLED OFF THE JUDICIAL REVOLUTION AFTER ALL - TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: “The only consolation for this mistake is that even if Tusk hadn't counter-signed, there would still have been another, alternative scenario that would have led to the selection of a new president of the Civil Chamber of the Supreme Court.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art41035231-tomasz-pietryga-spokojnie-to-tylko-blad-tusk-nie-odwolal-jednak-rewolucji-w-sadach
-- FOR A MOMENT, IT SEEMED THAT AFTER YEARS OF POLISH-POLISH WAR WITH KNIVES, WE HAD REACHED A POINT WHERE WE WERE STARTING TO PRACTICE OLD, BORING POLITICS AGAIN, RELYING ON NEGOTIATIONS - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “For a moment, it seemed that after years of Polish-Polish war with knives, pitchforks, and scythes held aloft, we had reached a point where we were again practicing old, boring politics, based on negotiations and compromises between actors from different sides of the political scene. But no, please do not adjust your sets. It was a mistake.”
-- FORTUNATELY, EVERYTHING HAS RETURNED TO NORMAL. CALM DOWN, IT'S JUST A MISTAKE. WE CAN CONTINUE TO FIGHT EACH OTHER WITH PITCHFORKS - Bartkiewicz's conclusion.
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41035361-artur-bartkiewicz-blad-donalda-tuska-czyli-inaczej-byc-nie-moglo
-- TUSK'S MISTAKE OF THE YEAR. IT COULD BE COSTLY - KRZYSZTOF BURNETKO ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: “If this is an element of a political arrangement with the president, it is a game that is unprofitable in every respect. If, on the other hand, as the prime minister explains, it is a clerk's error, it is proof of the mediocrity of Donald Tusk's entourage. (...) In the balance sheet of the democratic government, the decision regarding the neo-judge could prove to be a mistake with the furthest-reaching consequences – and what's more, it burdens the prime minister himself. The problem is also that the list of blunders is becoming alarming.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2268733,1,neosedzia-szefem-w-sadzie-najwyzszym-czyli-blad-roku-tuska-moze-byc-kosztowny.read?src=mt
-- AN ANNOUNCEMENT OF DEFENSIVE ENDURANCE, 'ADMINISTRATION,' BUT WITHOUT CREATING AMBITIOUS POLITICS. ALSO AS A GUARANTEE OF ONLY ONE TERM, WITHOUT A VISION FOR THE NEXT, THUS CONSIDERING THE RETURN OF PiS TO POWER, WHICH WOULD DEPRIVE LAST YEAR'S BREAKTHROUGH OF ITS DEEPER MEANING - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Prime Minister Tusk’s barely concealed helplessness made a strong impression when he said – first in front of his chancellery and recently during Campus – that little could be done about abortion because the PSL (Polish People's Party) cannot be convinced. And although recently Minister Sikorski assured that 'the coalition will certainly last until the end of the term,' it did not sound reassuring. This was interpreted, perhaps by overinterpreting these words, as an announcement of defensive endurance, 'administration,' but without creating ambitious politics. Also as a guarantee of only one term, without a vision for the next, thus considering the return of PiS to power, which would deprive last year's breakthrough of its deeper meaning. There is a fear that although Civic Platform still narrowly leads PiS in the polls, it is no longer growing and is slowly being caught up by Kaczyński's party.”
-- PiS HAS SENSED THIS BETTER MEDIA CLIMATE FOR THEMSELVES. IN KACZYŃSKI'S CIRCLES, THERE IS EVEN SOME SURPRISE AT HOW POORLY THE NEW GOVERNMENT IS DOING - CONTINUES THE FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “PiS has sensed this better media climate for itself, as well as the weaknesses of the ruling camp stemming from the divisions and ambitions of its leaders. In Kaczyński's circles, there is even some surprise at how poorly the new government is doing. Hence, for example, such a revitalization in the matter of finding a presidential candidate, because the leadership from Nowogrodzka believes that they can win the elections, which seemed improbable just a few months ago.”
-- EVERY LEAK IN THE MAIN DIVIDE IS PRICELESS FOR PiS - MARIUSZ JANICKI WRITES FURTHER IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Every leak in the main divide is priceless for PiS, and here it is happening with the applause of a significant portion of commentators, touched by the new, 'future-oriented' trends. Amidst all this, the fact that, regardless of whether we are talking about the young or old generation, the Central Communication Port, or even the power plant, we still have the same systemic dispute about the standards of liberal democracy, about the independence of courts, media, institutions, and tribunals, fades away.”
-- PiS MAY BENEFIT FROM THE FEELING THAT TUSK'S GOVERNMENT WILL END QUICKLY AND THERE WILL BE A GREAT REVENGE ON ALL THOSE WHO HELPED HIM - JANICKI CLAIMS: “If the narrative advantage of PiS solidifies, and there are signals of this, certain psychological processes may occur that will be difficult for Civic Platform and the entire coalition to reverse. Kaczyński's party achieved political successes also because it seemed that it would rule forever, so entire social groups aligned themselves with it. Today, it may benefit from the feeling that Tusk's government will end quickly and there will be a great revenge on all those who helped him.”
-- IT IS ALREADY EVIDENT THAT MANY JOURNALISTS AND COMMENTATORS CANNOT WAIT TO PRAISE THE FUTURE PiS CANDIDATE, TO SAY WHAT A BRILLIANT PROPOSAL IT IS, HOW IT BREAKS DIVIDES - MARIUSZ JANICKI CONTINUES: “A new political stage will fully arrive with the presentation of PiS's presidential contender, because Trzaskowski's candidacy as a representative of the ruling coalition is treated as obvious, and therefore less interesting. It is already evident that many journalists and commentators cannot wait to praise the future PiS candidate, to say what a brilliant proposal it is, how it breaks divides, how young and handsome he is, with a great campaign.”
-- THE SAME JOURNALISTS WHO PRAISED HIM BEFORE WILL GET ON THE BUS WITH THE CANDIDATE, MARVEL AT THE CONVENTIONS, DESCRIBE HIS FRESHNESS, NATURALNESS, AND GIVE HIM FREE PROMOTION - Mariusz Janicki further writes.
-- CIVIC PLATFORM MUST BE CAREFUL NOT TO BE LATE WITH THEIR CANDIDATE, IF SOME OF THE 'NON-PiS' MEDIA MANAGE TO WHIP UP THE CAMPAIGN OF THE PiS CANDIDATE AND ANNOUNCE AGAIN THAT HE IS 'SHAKING HANDS AND GIVING HOPE,' THEN THERE MAY BE NOTHING LEFT TO COLLECT - Mariusz Janicki again.
-- IN THE COMING POLITICAL SEASON, THE MARGIN FOR ERROR FOR THE RULING PARTY IS SHRINKING. IF THEY LOSE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, THEY MAY HAVE TO START PACKING UP - Janicki's conclusion.
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2268461,1,jest-dobrze-czy-zle-pis-snuje-opowiesc-o-gnijacej-wladzy-tuska-wyczul-moment-grozba-wisi-w-powietrzu.read
-- THE CURRENT COALITION WON A MAJORITY IN THE OCTOBER 15 ELECTIONS SOLELY BECAUSE IT HAD A VERY DIVERSIFIED OFFER - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The current coalition won a majority in the October 15 elections solely because it had a very diversified offer. There was something for left-wing voters, as well as for liberal voters from large urban centers, and even people with more conservative views could find candidates on the lists they could vote for.”
-- THE FIGHT OF KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ AND THE ENTIRE PSL TO MAINTAIN THEIR IDENTITY, FOR CLARITY, IS A FIGHT TO MAINTAIN THE MAJORITY FOR THE CURRENT COALITION - CONTINUES SZUŁDRZYŃSKI.
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art41034311-michal-szuldrzynski-campus-polska-i-tresowanie-kosiniaka-kamysza
-- COULD PiS HAVE A PRESIDENT AGAIN IN A YEAR? DANIEL PERS: I DON'T SEE SUCH A CHANCE TODAY - ELECTION ANALYST IN CONVERSATION WITH JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “Daniel Pers: I don't see such a chance today. If the pendulum in politics swings in one direction, it needs time to swing back. This shift occurred on October 15, and we found ourselves in a new reality.”
-- PROVIDED THAT NEITHER OF THEM LOSES DRAMATICALLY IN THE SECOND ROUND, BUT FOR EXAMPLE WITH A SCORE OF 47 PERCENT - PERS ASKED BY MAJMUREK ABOUT THE AWS SCENARIO IN THE CASE OF PiS: “If the palace does not field its candidate, PiS does not lose resources, and the candidate achieves a decent result in the first round, for example, 32 percent – which is quite probable, then no. Then we again have a second round: the PiS candidate – the PO candidate, the attention of the entire public opinion focuses on these two formations, which strengthens both of them. Provided that neither of them loses dramatically in the second round, but for example, with a result of 47 percent.”
-- IF THE RESULT IN THE SECOND ROUND IS CLEARLY WEAKER, VOICES ATTACKING KACZYŃSKI FOR CHOOSING A CANDIDATE WHO DID NOT MANAGE WILL EMERGE - PERS TELLS MAJMUREK: “If the result in the second round is clearly weaker, then voices attacking Kaczyński for choosing a candidate who did not succeed will emerge. Activists will consider that the leader has again made a similar mistake, like banking on Jacek Kurski in the European elections. That was truly a fly in the ointment for the party. Opinions will strengthen that the leader's political instinct is no longer what it used to be. And then an interesting game will begin around 'United Right'.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/rozbicie-dzielnicowe-w-pis-sytuacja-stala-sie-toksyczna-analiza/lqw7tb7
-- EWA WANAT WOULD BE CELEBRATING HER 62ND BIRTHDAY TODAY.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Marzena Machałek, Arkadiusz Wiśniewski, Jakub Stefaniak, Paweł Bryłowski, Artur Ostrowski.
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