state of play: 08/19/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Nizinkiewicz: Coalition partners agree on supporting a common candidate at the right moment; Pollster for SE: Confederation voters support Morawiecki

Łukasz Mężyk

-- “THE COALITION MUST SHOW ITS EFFECTIVENESS.” ZGORZELSKI ON THE NEW POLITICAL SEASON - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/08/19 -- CONFEDERATION VOTERS WOULD MOST PREFER TO VOTE FOR MORAWIECKI – ACCORDING TO A POLLSTER INSTITUTE SURVEY - FOR SE: Over a quarter of decided voters (28.62%) indicated that from this selection, they would most prefer to vote for former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Only the Marshal of the Sejm, leader of Poland 2050 Szymon Hołownia (19.66%), also achieved a double-digit result in the poll. Former Minister of National Defense Mariusz Błaszczak from PiS (8.05%) also made it to the podium. Further down the rankings were: Mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski from Civic Platform (8.01%), MEP and former candidate for Mayor of Warsaw for PiS Tobiasz Bocheński (6.75%), former Prime Minister, current MEP for PiS Beata Szydło (5.82%), current Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski from Civic Platform (5.15%), and President of the Institute of National Remembrance Karol Nawrocki (1.77%). https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/wyborcy-konfederacji-stawiaja-na-morawieckiego-kto-jeszcze-moze-liczyc-na-ich-poparcie-aa-PhPV-HjZE-rPaL.html -- THIRD WAY AND THE LEFT ARE PRELIMINARILY AGREED IN THE CIVIC COALITION ON SUPPORTING A COMMON CANDIDATE AT THE RIGHT MOMENT, WHO WILL BE TRZASKOWSKI - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Both formations are preliminarily agreed in the Civic Coalition on supporting a common candidate at the right moment, who will be Rafał Trzaskowski. Neither group can afford an expensive campaign, let alone a spectacular defeat. The only question is, at what point will the candidates of the Third Way and the Left withdraw from the field, and what loyalty program can they expect from Tusk in return for supporting the Civic Coalition candidate.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40983691-nizinkiewicz-donald-tusk-podejmujac-decyzje-zaszachowal-pis-i-koalicjantow -- AFTER EIGHT YEARS, WE ONCE AGAIN HAVE A TRUE SUMMER RECESS IN POLAND. IT IS A GRAND RETURN OF THE SOCIAL ANIMAL, WHICH IN THE FIRST TERM OF THE PIS GOVERNMENT WAS LISTED AS AN ENDANGERED SPECIES, AND IN THE SECOND, IT SEEMED, FINALLY BECAME EXTINCT, FATALLY HIT BY THE METEORITE OF PERMANENT POLITICAL HEIGHTENING - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS. -- IT IS A MATTER OF THE SIMPLEST CHOICE OF PRIORITIES THAT WE KNOW FROM OUR DAILY LIVES: NOT EVERYTHING WE CAN AFFORD NEEDS TO BE BOUGHT IMMEDIATELY - DANIELEWSKI ON THE GAMES: “Firstly, can we afford these games? Yes, no one should have any doubts about that. As the examples of competitions in London, Rio, Tokyo, and Paris show, the cost of organizing such an event should not exceed annual expenditures on 800+, meaning we should close within 70 billion zlotys with a surplus. This is not an amount that will blow up the Polish budget all at once, especially since some (rather smaller) part of this money will be recouped. Secondly, it is a matter of the simplest choice of priorities that we know from our daily lives: not everything we can afford needs to be bought immediately.” -- IT IS NOT EXCLUDED THAT IN LESS THAN A YEAR, WE WILL SEE TWO NAMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONFEDERATION ON THE ELECTION BALLOT: MENTZEN AND BRAUN - CONTINUES DANIELEWSKI IN OKO: “Strictly speaking, such a decision was announced by Krzysztof Bosak's National Movement and Mentzen's New Hope. The third component of the far-right formation, namely Grzegorz Braun's group, remains skeptical about this candidacy.” -- HE HAS VERY LITTLE IN COMMON WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL IMAGE - CONTINUES DANIELEWSKI IN OKO ABOUT MENTZEN: “Mentzen may have image problems: a somewhat arrogant, self-confident young politician, drinking beer at meetings with voters, might be a good idea for a story about the leader of a new political force. But he has very little in common with the presidential image.” https://oko.press/wielki-powrot-sezonu-ogorkowego-igrzyska-tuska-kandydatura-mentzena -- DIDUSZKO'S DEFEAT IS THE FINAL PROOF THAT BIEDROŃ HAS HANDED THE PARTY OVER TO CZARZASTY - I HEAR IN NEW LEFT - WITOLD MROZEK IN GW: “Diduszko's defeat is the final proof that Robert [Biedroń] has handed the party over to Czarzasty,” I hear in New Left, among people sympathetic to the would-be minister. These words are spoken with concern for the future of the formation. Especially since the Spring faction, after sending Scheuring-Wielgus and Krzysztof Śmiszek to the European Parliament, has only five MPs in the 26-member parliamentary club of the Left (SLD faction – 13, Party Together – 8, including Paulina Matysiak, who is suspended from the party). https://wyborcza.pl/7,75410,31232337,ona-scigala-ksiezy-pedofilow-on-to-czlowiek-czarzastego-co.html -- THERE IS GREAT TENSION, INCLUDING IN THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “The National Election Commission will reject PiS's financial report. There is no doubt,” we heard from a person close to the commission. This would mean that the National Election Commission would consider the illegal campaign of PiS to have been “valued” at over PLN 387,000. PiS's loss would be 16 times more than the “valuation”. Another source tempers expectations: “There is enormous tension in the National Election Commission and the National Electoral Bureau.” -- ONLY IF THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION DETERMINES THAT THE ILLEGAL BENEFITS HAD A VALUE OF PLN 5,719,000 WOULD PIS LOSE PLN 91.5 MILLION, WHICH IS THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT THE STATE CAN TAKE FROM IT - PIOTR PACEWICZ ON A POSSIBLE DECISION BY THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION: “Only if the National Election Commission determines that the illegal benefits had a value of PLN 5,719,000 would PiS lose PLN 91.5 million, which is the maximum amount the state can take from it. Under the Electoral Code, the penalty is limited to 75% of the subsidy and grant, meaning PiS, even in such an improbable case, would receive a total of approximately PLN 30.5 million between 2024-2027.” -- PACEWICZ ON THE MON PICNICS: “If the costs of 57 picnics (out of 67) were recognized as a concealed campaign cost for PiS, it can be estimated that their value could have been around PLN 1.5 million. This would be a so-called game changer in the settlement of PiS's election expenses, as it would mean that the value of the contested “election benefits” from NCL, NASK, and the MON picnics would reach approximately PLN 2 million. For PiS, this would mean a loss of PLN 32 million.” https://oko.press/oszustwo-wyborcze-x-16-taka-kara-wisi-nad-pis-dzis-narada-pkw-jest-duze-napiecie-takze-w-kbw -- BIRTHDAYS: Maciej Łopiński, Dariusz Prosiecki, Marzanna Zielińska, Stefan Pastuszewski, Mieczysław Augustyn, Dawid Wildstein, Grzegorz Wszołek.

Łukasz Mężyk