state of play: 08/19/2024
STATE OF PLAY: Nizinkiewicz: Coalition partners agree on supporting a common candidate at the right moment; Pollster for SE: Confederation voters support Morawiecki
-- “THE COALITION MUST SHOW ITS EFFECTIVENESS.” ZGORZELSKI ON THE NEW POLITICAL SEASON - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/08/19
-- CONFEDERATION VOTERS WOULD MOST PREFER TO VOTE FOR MORAWIECKI – ACCORDING TO A POLLSTER INSTITUTE SURVEY - FOR SE: Over a quarter of decided voters (28.62%) indicated that from this selection, they would most prefer to vote for former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Only the Marshal of the Sejm, leader of Poland 2050 Szymon Hołownia (19.66%), also achieved a double-digit result in the poll. Former Minister of National Defense Mariusz Błaszczak from PiS (8.05%) also made it to the podium. Further down the rankings were: Mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski from Civic Platform (8.01%), MEP and former candidate for Mayor of Warsaw for PiS Tobiasz Bocheński (6.75%), former Prime Minister, current MEP for PiS Beata Szydło (5.82%), current Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski from Civic Platform (5.15%), and President of the Institute of National Remembrance Karol Nawrocki (1.77%).
https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/wyborcy-konfederacji-stawiaja-na-morawieckiego-kto-jeszcze-moze-liczyc-na-ich-poparcie-aa-PhPV-HjZE-rPaL.html
-- THIRD WAY AND THE LEFT ARE PRELIMINARILY AGREED IN THE CIVIC COALITION ON SUPPORTING A COMMON CANDIDATE AT THE RIGHT MOMENT, WHO WILL BE TRZASKOWSKI - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Both formations are preliminarily agreed in the Civic Coalition on supporting a common candidate at the right moment, who will be Rafał Trzaskowski. Neither group can afford an expensive campaign, let alone a spectacular defeat. The only question is, at what point will the candidates of the Third Way and the Left withdraw from the field, and what loyalty program can they expect from Tusk in return for supporting the Civic Coalition candidate.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40983691-nizinkiewicz-donald-tusk-podejmujac-decyzje-zaszachowal-pis-i-koalicjantow
-- AFTER EIGHT YEARS, WE ONCE AGAIN HAVE A TRUE SUMMER RECESS IN POLAND. IT IS A GRAND RETURN OF THE SOCIAL ANIMAL, WHICH IN THE FIRST TERM OF THE PIS GOVERNMENT WAS LISTED AS AN ENDANGERED SPECIES, AND IN THE SECOND, IT SEEMED, FINALLY BECAME EXTINCT, FATALLY HIT BY THE METEORITE OF PERMANENT POLITICAL HEIGHTENING - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS.
-- IT IS A MATTER OF THE SIMPLEST CHOICE OF PRIORITIES THAT WE KNOW FROM OUR DAILY LIVES: NOT EVERYTHING WE CAN AFFORD NEEDS TO BE BOUGHT IMMEDIATELY - DANIELEWSKI ON THE GAMES: “Firstly, can we afford these games? Yes, no one should have any doubts about that. As the examples of competitions in London, Rio, Tokyo, and Paris show, the cost of organizing such an event should not exceed annual expenditures on 800+, meaning we should close within 70 billion zlotys with a surplus. This is not an amount that will blow up the Polish budget all at once, especially since some (rather smaller) part of this money will be recouped. Secondly, it is a matter of the simplest choice of priorities that we know from our daily lives: not everything we can afford needs to be bought immediately.”
-- IT IS NOT EXCLUDED THAT IN LESS THAN A YEAR, WE WILL SEE TWO NAMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONFEDERATION ON THE ELECTION BALLOT: MENTZEN AND BRAUN - CONTINUES DANIELEWSKI IN OKO: “Strictly speaking, such a decision was announced by Krzysztof Bosak's National Movement and Mentzen's New Hope. The third component of the far-right formation, namely Grzegorz Braun's group, remains skeptical about this candidacy.”
-- HE HAS VERY LITTLE IN COMMON WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL IMAGE - CONTINUES DANIELEWSKI IN OKO ABOUT MENTZEN: “Mentzen may have image problems: a somewhat arrogant, self-confident young politician, drinking beer at meetings with voters, might be a good idea for a story about the leader of a new political force. But he has very little in common with the presidential image.”
https://oko.press/wielki-powrot-sezonu-ogorkowego-igrzyska-tuska-kandydatura-mentzena
-- DIDUSZKO'S DEFEAT IS THE FINAL PROOF THAT BIEDROŃ HAS HANDED THE PARTY OVER TO CZARZASTY - I HEAR IN NEW LEFT - WITOLD MROZEK IN GW: “Diduszko's defeat is the final proof that Robert [Biedroń] has handed the party over to Czarzasty,” I hear in New Left, among people sympathetic to the would-be minister. These words are spoken with concern for the future of the formation. Especially since the Spring faction, after sending Scheuring-Wielgus and Krzysztof Śmiszek to the European Parliament, has only five MPs in the 26-member parliamentary club of the Left (SLD faction – 13, Party Together – 8, including Paulina Matysiak, who is suspended from the party).
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75410,31232337,ona-scigala-ksiezy-pedofilow-on-to-czlowiek-czarzastego-co.html
-- THERE IS GREAT TENSION, INCLUDING IN THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “The National Election Commission will reject PiS's financial report. There is no doubt,” we heard from a person close to the commission. This would mean that the National Election Commission would consider the illegal campaign of PiS to have been “valued” at over PLN 387,000. PiS's loss would be 16 times more than the “valuation”. Another source tempers expectations: “There is enormous tension in the National Election Commission and the National Electoral Bureau.”
-- ONLY IF THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION DETERMINES THAT THE ILLEGAL BENEFITS HAD A VALUE OF PLN 5,719,000 WOULD PIS LOSE PLN 91.5 MILLION, WHICH IS THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT THE STATE CAN TAKE FROM IT - PIOTR PACEWICZ ON A POSSIBLE DECISION BY THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION: “Only if the National Election Commission determines that the illegal benefits had a value of PLN 5,719,000 would PiS lose PLN 91.5 million, which is the maximum amount the state can take from it.
Under the Electoral Code, the penalty is limited to 75% of the subsidy and grant, meaning PiS, even in such an improbable case, would receive a total of approximately PLN 30.5 million between 2024-2027.”
-- PACEWICZ ON THE MON PICNICS: “If the costs of 57 picnics (out of 67) were recognized as a concealed campaign cost for PiS, it can be estimated that their value could have been around PLN 1.5 million. This would be a so-called game changer in the settlement of PiS's election expenses, as it would mean that the value of the contested “election benefits” from NCL, NASK, and the MON picnics would reach approximately PLN 2 million. For PiS, this would mean a loss of PLN 32 million.”
https://oko.press/oszustwo-wyborcze-x-16-taka-kara-wisi-nad-pis-dzis-narada-pkw-jest-duze-napiecie-takze-w-kbw
-- BIRTHDAYS: Maciej Łopiński, Dariusz Prosiecki, Marzanna Zielińska, Stefan Pastuszewski, Mieczysław Augustyn, Dawid Wildstein, Grzegorz Wszołek.
live
12 hours
12 hours
„It was awesome.” — Morawiecki asked about his meeting in Dębica
12 hours
„That old communist shouldn't be Marshal of the Sejm.” — Morawiecki on Czarzasty
12 hours
„They Don't Bother Me At All." Morawiecki on "Attacks” — from within the United Right Camp
12 hours
„I Want to Address All Local Government Officials.” — Morawiecki on a New Program
12 hours
„An Absolutely Shameless Letter from Communist Apparatchiks.” — Morawiecki on Siwiec's Letter Regarding National Security Bureau Topics
12 hours
„Let's Demand This Questionnaire Be Filled Out.” — Morawiecki on Czarzasty's Security Survey
16 hours
„It's Worth Knowing Who We're Dealing With.” — Prime Minister Poses with Anne Applebaum's Book
18 hours
Czarzasty: I Have Access to All the Most Secret Information
18 hours
Sikorski's Sejm Address Postponed. Czarzasty Announces New Date
state of play
STATE OF PLAY: Tusk Needs a New Program, an Exit from the Grey, and a Renewed Contract with Voters; Doda's Ordeal in the TVP Studio
state of play
yesterday
STATE OF PLAY: Braun's Crown - Destination: China and Russia; Skrzydłowska-Kalukin: The Far-Right is Not a Margin; Stanley: Take Euroskepticism's Concerns Seriously
state of play
02/03/2026
Gruszczyński: Morawiecki and Sikorski's Positions Similar Within Their Parties, Żukowska's Strong Entrance to the Political Season, Szczęśniak: Will Pełczyńska Programmatically Threaten the Left? WM: InPost Triumphs in Dispute with Allegro
state of play
02/02/2026
Polish Political Landscape: Hołownia's Allies, Kaczynski's Health, Electoral Shifts, and Societal Divisions
state of play
01/31/2026
POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: RZ: 18 Maternity Wards Closed in Four Weeks of the New Year, Skrzydlewska: Konfederacja No Longer Terrifying, Braun Makes it Part of the Mainstream
state of play
01/30/2026
STATE OF PLAY: Nawrocki Aims to Lead Presidency in Opposition to Warsaw Media and Daily Agendas, Res Futura: Krakow Referendum Enters the Radar
state of play
01/29/2026