state of play: 08/13/2024
STATE OF PLAY: Janicki on Polityka Poll: While 49% of Respondents Favor Some Form of Decriminalization, 51% Are Indifferent or Opposed
-- PRIMARY ELECTIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE RIGHT-WING OR MENTZEN'S SUPPORT. BOSAK ON THE SELECTION OF THE CONFEDERATION CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/08/13/
-- THIS IS ANOTHER MATTER THAT CASTS A SHADOW OVER POLISH MEDIA. THEY ARE PROVING TO BE NAIVE, AND JOURNALISTS, WHO PRACTICE A PROFESSION OF PUBLIC TRUST, DO NOT CHECK WHO THEY ARE VISITING - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ ON ANNA GIELEWSKA'S TEXT IN FRONTSTORY: “This is also another matter that casts a shadow over Polish media. They are proving to be naive, and journalists, who practice a profession of public trust, do not check who they are visiting and with whom they are forming friendships. What information and data did the GRU spy obtain from representatives of Polish media by 'charging' their phones and computers? Perhaps we will find out soon. The matter will certainly be played out politically and will harm Poland. Another case confirming that Russia is already here.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40955461-jacek-nizinkiewicz-szpieg-pablo-gonzalez-i-polska-dziennikarka-a-ty-u-kogo-ladujesz-telefon
-- ALTHOUGH 49% OF RESPONDENTS FAVOR SOME FORM OF DECRIMINALIZATION, 51% ARE INDIFFERENT OR OPPOSED TO THIS SOLUTION -- MARIUSZ JANICKI DESCRIBES OPINIA24 RESEARCH FOR TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “38% of study participants stated that the abolition of criminal liability for aiding and abetting should apply to all persons assisting a woman, and 11% believe it should apply only to close relatives. At the same time, 26% believe that there should be no decriminalization at all; and 25% have no opinion on this matter. It is therefore evident that while 49% of respondents favor some form of decriminalization, 51% are indifferent or opposed to this solution. As with many other political and social issues, a deep division is visible here. Interestingly, respondents' gender does not influence their views on this matter, although one might think there should be more supporters of such a life-saving solution.”
-- IN SOCIETY, THE PERCENTAGE OF SUPPORTERS OF LIBERALIZING ABORTION REGULATIONS IS HIGHER THAN IN THE SEJM CHAMBER, ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT ACHIEVE AN ABSOLUTE MAJORITY, AND 41% DO NOT WANT UNCONDITIONAL ABORTION - CONTINUES THE FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “45% of those surveyed agree to terminating a pregnancy up to the 12th week without additional conditions, for 27% a return to the situation before the Constitutional Tribunal's ruling from 2020 was sufficient, and 14% would want even stricter abortion regulations, up to a complete ban; 14% have no opinion. It is again apparent that in society, the percentage of supporters of liberalizing abortion regulations is higher than in the Sejm chamber, although it does not achieve an absolute majority, and 41% do not want unconditional abortion.”
-- THE PROGRESSIVE SOCIAL OPTION IS ON THE OFFENSIVE, OFTEN HAS AN ADVANTAGE IN POLLS, BUT STILL LACKS AN ABSOLUTE, UNDISPUTED MAJORITY THAT EVERYONE MUST ACCEPT AS A GIVEN - WRITES MARIUSZ JANICKI FURTHER: “One can say that our poll presents society halfway between clear acceptance of progressive solutions and the conservatism ingrained over years. Much indicates that the critical mass has not been unequivocally crossed here, although the turning point seems close. The progressive social option is on the offensive, often has an advantage in polls, but still lacks an absolute, undisputed majority that everyone must accept as a given. This is likely the reason for such emotions and tensions; both sides are trying to resolve this dispute somehow, to settle it, to impose a narrative and an agenda, but this is very difficult in this situation. Politicians seem too cautious in several cases, considering the real views of their voters, but in others, they quite accurately sense the doubts and hesitations of their electorate. They fear overly far-reaching solutions so as not to be met with the retort from their previous supporters that 'not that much.' ”
-- IT IS OF SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL VALUE WHEN THE ENTIRE RULING ANTI-PIS COALITION TRAVELS TOGETHER, EVEN IF COALITION PARTIES OCCASIONALLY PRETEND OTHERWISE. THE REALITY IS THAT THEY WILL EITHER WIN TOGETHER OR LOSE TOGETHER - MARIUSZ JANICKI'S CONCLUSION IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The results of our poll show that despite various nuances and hesitations, voters of the October coalition rather favor social changes, or at least do not oppose them. And a passed, agreed-upon project would demonstrate the cohesion and effectiveness of the ruling camp, some sensibly negotiated goal, in a situation where there are not many of them. It is of significant political value when the entire ruling anti-PiS coalition travels together, even if coalition parties occasionally pretend otherwise. The reality is that they will either win together or lose together.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2266791,1,nowy-sondaz-polityki-zadalismy-polkom-i-polakom-same-drazliwe-pytania.read
-- BEATA SZYDŁO IS FALLING, AND HER IMPORTANCE IN PIS IS DIMINISHING BEFORE OUR EYES. ONLY AGGRESSIVE PLAY FOR HER OWN INTEREST CAN SAVE HER FROM RUIN - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “Important: she has always overestimated her capabilities, and this very fact might prompt her to make completely 'irresponsible' moves. What kind? Well, she has to play aggressively: since she is forming a faction within the party, she might decide to form it outside the party. Can she do it? Definitely. Especially if someone convinces her that this is the only way she can save face and remain on the main stage. I wouldn't be surprised if such prompters are already at work.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40955861-boguslaw-chrabota-beata-szydlo-gra-o-zycie
-- THE NEW LEFT TODAY LACKS A CLEAR NARRATIVE EXPLAINING TO ITS SUPPORTERS WHY IT IS ACTUALLY IN THE GOVERNMENT AND WHAT IT PLANS TO ACHIEVE THROUGH PARTICIPATION IN POWER - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “The New Left today lacks a clear narrative explaining to its supporters why it is actually in the government and what it plans to achieve through participation in power. Last October, this answer seemed quite obvious: The Left is entering the government to remove PiS from power and prevent Poland from sliding further towards a hybrid 'democratatorship,' pushing us to the sidelines of the European Union and posing an increasing threat to the rights of groups like the LGBT+ community or women.”
-- ANOTHER BENEFIT FOR SENIORS HAS MATERIALIZED – IT IS HARD TO BE SURPRISED IF THIS SITUATION CREATES THE CONVICTION AMONG YOUNGER POLES THAT THE POLISH WELFARE STATE IS UNFAIRLY TILTED TOWARDS THE ELDERLY - CONTINUES MAJMUREK IN KP: “The social housing program, however, has not materialized so far; instead, another benefit for seniors has materialized – it is hard to be surprised if this situation creates the conviction among younger Poles that the Polish welfare state is unfairly tilted towards the elderly and disregards the needs of those entering adult life, on whom the future of society depends. In the long term, it would not be good for the Left to be associated with this perceived unfairness – delivering the widow's pension without realizing any major promises important to younger voters may unfortunately perpetuate such an association.”
-- WHEN CAN ONE THREATEN TO LEAVE THE COALITION TABLE, OR EVEN ACTUALLY LEAVE IT? - STILL MAJMUREK: “Finally, one must also face the question: when can one threaten to leave the coalition table, or even actually leave it? Today, such a move would probably still be incomprehensible to the majority of the Left's electorate, except for its most ideologically distinct and overrepresented part in social media. However, presidential elections won by a coalition candidate – which, as much indicates, is a more likely scenario – as well as time, will change the political dynamics, and the Left should prepare for it.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/pytania-na-ktore-lewica-musi-sobie-odpowiedziec-przez-wakacje-najwazniejsze-brzmi-po-co-w-ogole-jest-w-rzadzie/
-- THE LIBERAL CENTER HAS BEEN SLEEPING – CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “Throughout Europe, the liberal center (especially its center-right wing, i.e., various parties belonging to the European People's Party, here Donald Tusk) is trying to take over these issues, to take them away from the far-right. It has a credibility problem. Indeed, it has been asleep on both issues. Often – as in the case of mass immigration – 'whistleblowers' from the far-right pointed this out earlier and are now collecting the deserved bonus.”
-- THE LIBERAL CENTER MUST PAY THE PRICE FOR SLEEPING THROUGH MANY CHALLENGES WHICH WERE POINTED OUT BY PEOPLE WHO, PUSHED OUT OF THE CENTER, ULTIMATELY BECAME PART OF THE FAR-RIGHT PACKAGE – CONTINUES MICHALSKI: “The liberal center must pay (and is currently paying) the price for sleeping through many challenges that were highlighted by people who, pushed out of the center, ultimately became part of the far-right package. Although they didn't have to, if the liberals had listened to them earlier and not allowed them to be 'canceled' by their left-wing pseudo-allies.”
-- THE MOST RADICAL VERSION OF THE CULTURAL LEFT IS INTOLERANT OF THE LIBERAL WEST AS A "COLONIAL POWER" AND TOLERANT OF IRAN, WHERE QUEER PEOPLE ARE TORTURED AND MURDERED – CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “Are we, in turn, hostages of a left-wing package, where alongside the emancipation and freedom of women come platitudinous, and sometimes downright foolish slogans, such as: 'caliphate is the solution' (I personally saw this slogan dominating a rally of university leftists in Hamburg) or 'queer against Islamophobia'? Where the most radical version of the cultural left is intolerant of the liberal West as a 'colonial power,' yet tolerant of Iran, where queer people are tortured and murdered, and the 'caliphate is the solution,' only the 'ultimate' solution to issues of freedom or diversity?”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-zlo-prawicowych-i-lewicowych-ideologicznych-pakietow,nId,7754231
-- BIRTHDAYS: Bronisław Korfanty, Ryszard Czarny, Maciej H. Grabowski, Beata Maciejewska, Magda Sakowska.
live
12 hours
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„Let's Demand This Questionnaire Be Filled Out.” — Morawiecki on Czarzasty's Security Survey
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„It's Worth Knowing Who We're Dealing With.” — Prime Minister Poses with Anne Applebaum's Book
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Czarzasty: I Have Access to All the Most Secret Information
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Sikorski's Sejm Address Postponed. Czarzasty Announces New Date
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yesterday
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