state of play: 08/10/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Bartkiewicz in Rzeczpospolita: The government could boast of almost nothing, the more it holds PiS accountable, the smaller the coalition partners appear; Zaremba: I hear Tusk will likely block Trzaskowski; Susan Wojcicki is dead

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SUSAN WOJCICKI IS DEAD: -- PEOPLE ARE STILL DYING FROM THE VIRUS AND COMORBIDITIES, AND THERE ARE NO VACCINES. - ONLY IN OCTOBER - PHARMACISTS SAY - KATARZYNA JAROCH IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “The Masovian Voivodeship has the highest number of COVID-19 infections in Poland. This is one-fifth of all infections in the country, which totaled over 560 on Tuesday. People are still dying from the virus and comorbidities, and there are no vaccines. - Only in October - pharmacists say.” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,31210121,nie-ma-szczepionek-na-covid-19-w-warszawie.html -- POLISH MFA UNEXPECTEDLY TIGHTENED GUIDELINES FOR STUDENT VISAS FOR FOREIGNERS. THIS IS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE VISA AFFAIR. – YEARS OF WORK BY UNIVERSITIES AND OTHER INSTITUTIONS AIMED AT INTERNATIONALIZING HIGHER EDUCATION MAY BE WASTED – DR HAB. KATARZYNA GÓRAK-SOSNOWSKA FROM SGH, PRESIDENT OF THE FORUM OF ACADEMIC ADMINISTRATION ASSOCIATION, WORRIES – IN AN INTERVIEW WITH RENATA KIM IN NEWSWEEK. https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/spoleczenstwo/nieoczekiwany-ruch-wizowy-msz-znacznie-utrudni-studentom-przyjazd-do-polski/09v5z3x -- A FEW MORE SUCH CONFERENCES BY TUSK AND THE "NORMAL PEOPLE" WILL START TO GET IRRITATED, JUST LIKE THEY USED TO GET IRRITATED AT BEATA SZYDŁO'S "FOR EIGHT YEARS..." - SAYS AN IMPORTANT PiS POLITICIAN TO AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “A few more such conferences by Tusk and the 'normal people' will start to get irritated, just like they used to get irritated at Beata Szydło's 'for eight years...' - says an important PiS politician. But he admits that the topic of the Justice Fund is still hot in Jarosław Kaczyński's circle.” -- "IT'S OBVIOUS TO ME THAT TUSK WOULD NOT MAKE THAT MISTAKE AGAIN, HOWEVER, PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ'S WORDS STARTED TO LIVE THEIR OWN LIVES, THEY BECAME DANGEROUS FOR THE CIVIC COALITION - BELIEVES A PiS POLITICIAN - FURTHER IN KONDZIŃSKA'S ARTICLE IN GAZETA WYBORCZA. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31217168,pis-reaguje-na-konferencje-tuska-abstrakcyjne-kwoty.html -- DONALD TUSK PROMISED THAT HIS GOVERNMENT WOULD BRING AN END TO ALL INFLATION. IT BROUGHT THE OPPOSITE -- PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “At the same time, this state does not have to last forever; the group of double-thinkers or those already doubting, revealed in this poll, should worry the current authorities. We are dealing with rising prices of electricity, gas, and water. As a writer about politics, but also as an ordinary consumer, I was horrified by my recent bills. Donald Tusk promised that his government would bring an end to all inflation. It brought the opposite. -- PEOPLE WHO TAKE THE TROUBLE TO DELVE A LITTLE DEEPER INTO POLITICS UNDERSTAND THAT VARIOUS SHIELDS, THOSE MYTHICAL SHIELDS, HAVE BEEN LIQUIDATED - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “People who take the trouble to delve a little deeper into politics understand that various shields, those mythical shields, have been liquidated. They were liquidated because the budget could not withstand it. This gives PiS an excellent opportunity to formulate a more general thesis. "When we govern, there is money; when they govern, it immediately starts to run out" - this is an exceptionally effective piece of an indictment.” -- COALITION POLITICIANS EXPLAIN THAT THE BUDGET WAS ON THE EDGE OF ITS CAPACITY. HOWEVER, THEY THEMSELVES INCREASED THE DEFICIT BY OVER 20 BILLION COMPARED TO MORAWIECKI'S GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “Politicians of the new coalition, in turn, explain that the budget was on the verge of collapse. However, they themselves increased the deficit by over 20 billion compared to the Morawiecki government's project – in a desperate attempt to fulfill at least a few promises from that unfortunate 'Tusk's hundred'. It is they, not the masters of handout under the sign of Kaczyński, who are now facing an EU procedure for punishment due to budgetary imbalance.” -- DESPITE SOME UNIFICATION OF THE MEDIA MARKET, NEWS ABOUT ALL OF THIS SPREADS ANYHOW. SO TUSK COMMANDS EVEN LOUDER BEATING ON THE ACCOUNTABILITY DAMS - WRITES ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “Despite some unification of the media market, news about all of this spreads somehow. So Tusk commands even louder beating on the accountability dams, even more fiery attacks on the 'party of thieves and scoundrels.' As long as it lasts at least until the presidential campaign. Taking over the presidency will enable a complete rebuilding and takeover of all institutions still protected today by Andrzej Duda's veto.” -- FINANCES, WHETHER RUINED BY PiS OR FINISHED OFF BY THEMSELVES, WILL CONDEMN THEM TO DRIFTING, TO LACK OF AMBITIOUS GOALS, TO FURTHER FAILURES - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: “However, the authors of media reports about Tusk's candidacy suggest that he would seek protection in the presidency as a potential defense against PiS retaliation if they win the next parliamentary elections. Could it be that the leaders of the Civic Coalition, who are certainly comfortably settled in their positions today, know that it will get even worse? That finances, whether ruined by PiS or finished off by themselves, will condemn them to drifting, to a lack of ambitious goals, to further failures?” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-jak-nie-dotrzymac-i-trwac-recepta-tuska,nId,7754530 -- IF PiS DIDN'T EXIST, TUSK WOULD HAVE TO INVENT IT - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “In the times before TikTok, and even before Facebook, children used to play a game with a folksy name "pomidor" [tomato], in which one had to answer every question using the name of this vegetable. Donald Tusk's Friday conference was a political variation on this game.” -- THE GOVERNMENT COULD BOAST OF ALMOST NOTHING, AND ON THE OTHER HAND, THE MORE THE GOVERNMENT WITH TUSK'S FACE HOLDS PiS ACCOUNTABLE, THE SMALLER THE COALITION PARTNERS SEEM. A TRUE PERPETUUM MOBILE FOR THE PRIME MINISTER - BARTKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “With a conference like Friday's, Tusk reminds Poles who really governs here. The Prime Minister invited ministers who signed an agreement on cooperation in holding PiS accountable to the stage, then sent them back to work like students and spoke to journalists for several dozen minutes himself. To a casual observer, everything is clear – the government is Tusk, Tusk is the government. Without him, no one will hold anyone accountable. And this, in turn, builds up Tusk himself, but also his party, which grows in stature along with its leader, at the expense of the coalition partners. The latter, therefore, on the one hand, must agree to hold PiS accountable, because otherwise – as shown above – the government could boast of almost nothing, and on the other hand, the more the government with Tusk's face holds PiS accountable, the smaller they seem. A true perpetuum mobile for the prime minister.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40946261-artur-bartkiewicz-donald-tusk-rozlicza-jaroslawa-kaczynskiego-gdyby-pis-u-nie-bylo-musialby-go-wymyslic -- TUSK, WITH DISCREET MOVES, IS ARRANGING THE PARTY IN SUCH A WAY AS TO STRIP THE PRESIDENT OF WARSAW OF THE REMAINS OF HIS BASE - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “However, that's not what it's really about. Tusk remembers how in 2021 Trzaskowski was preparing to take power – then over Civic Platform. The first summer Campus Polska Przyszłości, with his planned announcements of the rebuilding of PO, was to be the prelude. Tusk then cut off this threat by returning to domestic politics. Now, with discreet moves, he is arranging the party in such a way as to strip the president of Warsaw of the remains of his base.” -- TUSK IS GETTING OLDER, SO A CHANGE FROM THE DIFFICULT GOVERNMENT WORK TO A MORE SYMBOLIC, ONE MIGHT SAY METAPOLITICAL, ACTIVITY MAY INTEREST HIM - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “This was interpreted as an announcement of seeking a career in European institutions again. The presidency was not considered, remembering Tusk's old dismissive remarks (as early as 2010) about his reluctance to live 'under the chandelier,' which symbolized a lack of real power in the presidential palace. However, the European Union leadership has just been arranged – without him. It was too early to desert the post of head of government after six months. But in another year? Why not? Tusk is getting older, so a change from the difficult government work to a more symbolic, one might say metapolitical, activity may interest him.” -- THIS GOVERNMENT HAS FEW FUNDAMENTAL ACHIEVEMENTS AND FACES REAL TROUBLES AHEAD, BECAUSE AFTER THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE MASTERS OF HANDOUTS FROM PiS, BUT ALSO AFTER ITS OWN RISKY SPENDING, THE EU HAS INITIATED EXCESSIVE DEFICIT PROCEDURES AGAINST POLAND - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “We have rising energy prices hitting the pockets of ordinary Poles. And the failure to fulfill most of the spectacular electoral promises, such as the astronomical increase in the tax-free allowance. Those that they have started to fulfill (reduction of the health contribution) are getting stuck in coalition disputes. This government has few fundamental achievements and faces real troubles ahead, because after the governments of the masters of handout from PiS, but also after its own risky spending, the EU has initiated excessive deficit procedures against Poland.” -- TRZASKOWSKI HAS ONE SERIOUS ADVANTAGE AS A POTENTIAL CANDIDATE. HE IS SOMEWHAT OUTSIDE CURRENT POLITICS, WITH ALL ITS DIRTS, FAILURES, AND OMISSIONS - WRITES PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “Trzaskowski has one serious advantage as a potential candidate. He is somewhat outside current politics, with all its dirt, failures, and omissions. Tusk has indeed noticed that the difference between him and the president of Warsaw in terms of negative electorate size is not that significant. But the campaign will give the right hundreds of opportunities to remind of all the disappointments and unfulfilled hopes. It would be harder to burden Trzaskowski with them. But Tusk, very easily.” -- IF HOŁOWNIA MAINTAINS MINIMAL RATIONALITY TODAY, HE WILL BACK DOWN - CLAIMS ZAREMBA: “If Hołownia maintains minimal rationality today, he will back down. In exchange for what? Probably for remaining in the position of Marshal until the end of the term. This would, of course, be a slap in the face to the Left, which was supposed to get the Marshal's seat for the second half of the term, but its position is systematically weakening. So perhaps it would be possible to win them over with minor concessions.” -- FROM WITHIN THE CIVIC COALITION-CIVIC PLATFORM, I HEAR THAT TUSK WILL LIKELY BLOCK TRZASKOWSKI - ZAREMBA STILL IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “From within the Civic Coalition-Civic Platform, I hear that Tusk will likely block Trzaskowski, but he might still bet on someone who is obedient. Perhaps on Radosław Sikorski, who is eagerly waiting? Or perhaps on a woman?” https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art40939151-piotr-zaremba-palac-prezydencki-kusi-donalda-tuska -- HOŁOWNIA SHOULD GIVE UP THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. BECAUSE HE WILL LOSE EVEN TO BOSAK -- MICHAŁ PŁOCIŃSKI IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “In the latest presidential poll, Szymon Hołownia loses to the leader of Confederation, Krzysztof Bosak. And it is truly difficult to imagine how Hołownia would find himself in a game of sharp polarization, which KO and PiS are preparing for the presidential elections. In many matters, Krzysztof Bosak will be in strong opposition to the PO candidate. And what will the leader of the fallen Third Way do?” -- THANKS TO TUSK'S CANDIDACY, HOŁOWNIA WILL GET A GOOD EXCUSE AND THUS WILL NOT BURY HIS POLITICAL CAREER AFTER A SHAMEFUL DEFEAT BY BOSAK - PŁOCIŃSKI CONTINUES: “if, however, Donald Tusk himself decides to run, then Poland 2050 will be able to support him as the common candidate of the entire ruling coalition. Hołownia will get a good excuse and thus will not bury his political career after a shameful defeat by Krzysztof Bosak.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40944501-michal-plocinski-szymon-holownia-powinien-odpuscic-wybory-prezydenckie-bo-przegra-nawet-z-krzysztofem-bosakiem -- THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION (PKW) MUST, HOWEVER, COLLECT EVIDENCE THAT PiS KNEW ABOUT SUCH BENEFITS - ANNA DĄBROWSKA IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “To challenge PiS's election report, one of the offenses listed in the code can be applied: it concerns the acceptance by the committee of material benefits of a non-pecuniary nature from entities other than those permitted. However, the PKW must collect evidence that PiS knew about such benefits. The commission asked PiS about the Justice Fund, about money for the campaign from the Government Legislation Centre (RCL), about promotion funded by the State Forests. PiS's representative has already declared that he knew nothing.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2266095,1,zagrozona-kasa-pis-kaczynski-tak-poukladal-system-ze-wcale-nie-musi-jej-stracic.read -- FOUR YEARS AGO (on Sunday) SWIATŁANA CIECHANOUSKA FOUND REFUGE IN LITHUANIA. -- ZIEMOWIT SZCZEREK BELIEVES THAT JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI RIDES A SCOOTER AROUND WARSAW: "Well, my colleague Maciek Bochniak, a director, photographed an individual strongly resembling PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński (or Kaczyński himself) riding a scooter in Warsaw today. What do you think?" https://www.facebook.com/ziemowit.szczerek -- BIRTHDAYS: Krzysztof Wyszkowski, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz (43), Jan Cienski. SUNDAY: Bartosz Kownacki, Mateusz Szczurek, Łukasz Kamiński, Andrzej Biernat, Paweł Klimowicz.

Łukasz Mężyk