state of play: 08/08/2024

POLITICAL GAME: IBRIS CEO: Disappointment with the government is growing so fast that early elections could become attractive; Kublik: Poland left a loophole for Putin and Lukashenka

Łukasz Mężyk

-- DEVELOPER CUTTING DOWN TREES IN A PROTECTED AREA, STATE POWERLESS - AS GW REPORTS: “Police intervened on the plot at Ogórkowa Street several times last week, accompanied by foresters. The first thing they saw was a sign dug up from the ground, indicating that the area is part of the Natura 2000 nature protection network. The sign was not in the ground but standing nearby.” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,31209692,wycinaja-chroniony-las-blisko-wisly-lesnicy-wezwali-policje.html -- POLAND LEFT A LOOPHOLE FOR PUTIN AND LUKASHENKA - ANDRZEJ KUBLIK IN GW: “In its statement, the Ministry of Finance stated that restrictions were introduced, but cars with Belarusian license plates were not banned from entering Poland. As the ministry headed by Minister Andrzej Domański stated: ‘The possibility of vehicles entering Poland driven by the owner, or in which the owner is present, is permitted, provided that these vehicles are not used for transporting goods for commercial purposes or otherwise used for purposes violating the introduced restrictions.’ What is the justification for this decision? We have not received an answer from the Ministry of Finance since last week.” https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,177151,31209880,polska-zostawila-furtke-dla-putina-i-lukaszenki-nie-chce-nekac.html -- PETRU: I CANNOT IMAGINE VOTING ON THE 2025 BUDGET WITHOUT A REDUCTION IN HEALTH INSURANCE CONTRIBUTIONS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/08/08 -- DISAPPOINTMENT WITH THE GOVERNMENT IS GROWING SO FAST THAT EARLY ELECTIONS COULD BECOME AN ATTRACTIVE SCENARIO - MARCIN DUMA, HEAD OF RESEARCH CENTERS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “Let's look at public opinion polls. Both the qualitative IBRiS and quantitative CBOS studies show a clear deterioration of social moods. This shouldn't happen so quickly after a change of power. It is evident that the coalition, with its legislative capabilities, is not meeting social expectations. This translates into disappointment with its governance. And this situation will only worsen. Poland is no exception here; we are observing a similar acceleration of the political cycle in many other democracies. Recently, studies were published in Great Britain showing that within less than a month of winning the election, instead of a victory bonus, the approval rating for the new Prime Minister Starmer fell by 9 percentage points – even though his government hadn't really had a chance to make any decisions yet.” -- WHEN WE ASK POLES WHAT THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS TO SOLVE ARE, THEY SAY: INFLATION, RISING COST OF LIVING – IN SHORT: MONEY - DUMA CONTINUES IN NEWSWEEK: “In my opinion, the key to the coalition's victory was what Donald Tusk said on September 9th in Tarnów, presenting Civic Platform's 100 concrete actions for the first 100 days of government: 'the day after winning the election, we will begin implementing the 100 concrete actions for the first 100 days. Poles will have more in their pockets, it will be cheaper in Polish stores, and life will be better in every Polish home.' This is the promise Poles voted for. This is also evident in today's polls. When we ask Poles what the most important problems to solve are, they say: inflation, rising cost of living – in short: money. PiS was unable to fulfill these aspirations; at the turn of 2021 and 2022, it was close, but after Russia's aggression against Ukraine, inflation defeated it. Poles began to look for another guarantor of the promise of prosperity and found it in the person of Tusk, supported by the Left and the Third Way.” -- BASED ON CURRENT POLLS, PIS COULD TRY TO IMPROVE ITS RESULT BY APPROXIMATELY 2 PERCENTAGE POINTS. AS A RESULT, THE ELECTIONS WOULD NOT PRODUCE A PARLIAMENT CAPABLE OF CHANGING ANYTHING REGARDING ABORTION - DUMA CONTINUES WITH MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “If the results were as the July polls indicate, the Left and Civic Coalition could count on 196 to 210 seats, meaning that despite rearrangements within the democratic camp, there would still be no chance of outvoting the liberalization of abortion or partnership unions in a progressive formula. However, the dynamics of the election campaign could lead to a different outcome than it currently appears. Confederation could also strengthen in the new Sejm, and PiS, given its current ratings, could try to improve its result by approximately 2 percentage points. As a result, the elections would not produce a Sejm capable of changing anything regarding abortion or partnership unions.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/kaczynski-bedzie-musial-przetestowac-dwa-warianty-odwrocenie-sojuszy/sj046b5 -- TUSK WILL NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENT OF POLAND; LATER, POSSIBLY A CAREER IN FOREIGN STRUCTURES - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Donald Tusk will not run for president of Poland. There are many reasons for this. The fact that he doesn't want to is the most important one. If the leader of Civic Platform still considers a career after being the head of the Polish government, it would be a career in foreign structures.” -- PIS HAS THE PROBLEM. PIS HAS TO PUT OUT FIRES WITHIN ITS OWN RANKS - BORYS BUDKA IN CONVERSATION WITH MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “I am in favor of not rushing. It's a matter of choosing the right political moment. We all know when the elections are. It's PiS that has the problem. It's PiS that has to put out fires within its own ranks, it has an excess of candidates. In PiS, everyone sees themselves as a candidate.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40931181-jacek-nizinkiewicz-prezydentura-tuska-oznaczalaby-powrot-pis-do-wladzy-i-koniec-po -- WE WILL SHOW THAT WE ARE DOING SOMETHING, BUT WE WILL NOT ALLOW DUDA TO BUILD ON VETOES OR SEND LAWS TO A PSEUDO-TRIBUNAL - IMPORTANT GOVERNMENT COALITION POLITICIAN - AT PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ'S IN GAZETA.PL: “Therefore, within the ruling coalition, an idea has emerged on how to deal with Duda's stance. It is a proposal that in the Senate, for all disputed laws, precise amendments will be voted on, but these amendments will not be put to a vote in the Sejm. Only when the president changes next year, the Senate's amendments will be immediately voted on in the Sejm and sent to the new president. Such conduct is in accordance with the law, as the Sejm has no deadline by which it must consider Senate amendments.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,31211520,rzad-ma-pomysl-jak-rozegrac-prezydenta-nie-pozwolimy-budowac.html -- ARTISTS APPEAL TO THE PRESIDENT WITH ONE HAND TO SIGN THE ROYALTIES LAW, AND WITH THE OTHER: KATARZYNA GROCHOLA ON ANDRZEJ DUDA. "A YEAR IS NOT A LIFE SENTENCE!": “Katarzyna Grochola said in a new recording on Instagram: - There are only 365 days left until the end of Andrzej Duda's term. A year is not a life sentence! Regards – she concluded with a smile. 'I'm looking forward to it. I'm counting down too,' 'Oh, 365 days too long,' 'Oh! You've made my day, and even my week!' – some internet users supported her.” https://www.plotek.pl/plotek/7,154063,31210961,katarzyna-grochola-o-koncu-kadencji-andrzeja-dudy-w-komentarzach.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Bishop Alfons Nossol (92), Jarosław Sroka, Piotr Cieśliński.

Łukasz Mężyk