state of play: 08/05/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Fact: High Bills Loom, Poll: Fighting Inflation Top Priority, Abortion Access and Civil Unions Low on List

Łukasz Mężyk

-- "VERY DIFFICULT THIS YEAR". BEREK ON CHANGES TO HEALTH CONTRIBUTION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/08/05/ -- AS MANY AS 51.4% OF RESPONDENTS IN A POLL FOR "DZIENNIK GAZETA PRAWNA" AND RMF RADIO BELIEVE THAT THE MAIN PRIORITY FOR DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT (PICTURED) SHOULD BE COMBATING RISING PRICES, WITH ACCESS TO ABORTION AND THE INTRODUCTION OF CIVIL UNIONS LOW ON THE PRIORITY LIST: "Next on the list of priorities were: - strengthening state security (28.4%), - improving healthcare (25.7%), - building CPK (23.4%), - building a nuclear power plant (23.2%). Further down the priority list were issues such as judicial reform (16.5%), holding the previous government accountable (16.4%), facilitating access to abortion (13.4%), expanding access to affordable housing (9.6%), and introducing civil unions (6.4%). The smallest number of respondents indicated that the government should focus on restricting alcohol sales (1.1%)." https://oko.press/na-zywo/na-zywo-relacja/wysokie-koszty-zycia-glownym-problemem-sondaz -- THIS WILL BE A BLOW TO POLES' POCKETS. THE GOVERNMENT IS NO LONGER HIDING IT. ALARMING BILLS - JUSTYNA WĘCEK IN FAKT: "Currently, Polish families are exempt from it, but from 2027, when filling up with fuel, heating homes, or even turning on the hot water tap, gigantic amounts will be added. We must prepare for even several thousand zlotys to disappear from our wallets in a year. (...) Experts have calculated how expenses might change. We will all pay more – for cooking, using hot water, heating. For an average Polish family, the additional cost of ETS2 for gas heating will amount to PLN 6,338 between 2027–2030, and over PLN 24,000 between 2027–2035. Those who heat their homes with coal from 2027 to 2030 will spend an additional PLN 10,000 on fuel. (...) Heating water will also become more expensive. Bills for hot water from the tap between 2027-2030 could jump by as much as PLN 500." https://www.fakt.pl/pieniadze/rzad-ostrzega-przed-rachunkami-i-juz-szuka-pieniadze-na-doplaty-dla-polakow/j41ls1b -- PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYEES ARE UPSET WITH THE TUSK GOVERNMENT OVER FICTITIOUS 20% RAISES - KASIA BIELECKA AND MARIA KORCZ IN GW: "Despite the disruptions, the government managed to secure a 20% raise for public sector employees. The problem is that it was decided to calculate them from salaries as of the last day of 2023. Those who earned the minimum wage before the raises found themselves back at minimum wage after the raises." https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,159911,31156597,budzetowka.html -- WIDOW'S PENSION – SUCH A SUCCESS IS A FAILURE - KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: "The coalition partners of the Left can stand and rub their hands together, watching how beautifully the Left falls into a trap it dug for itself. (...) After all, why bother with amendments when the project is populist, not universal, but only for two million people, and those already privileged. Moreover, it is based on a completely non-leftist approach to justice, where the focus should be on loss, not inequality." https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/renta-wdowia-taki-sukces-lewicy-to-porazka/ -- A CRISIS WILL COME IN THE AUTUMN, POLES WILL THEN FEEL THE EFFECT OF RISING PRICES FOR ENERGY AND HEATING; THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR US – SAYS ONE OF KACZYŃSKI'S ADVISORS – QUOTED BY AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: "- A crisis will come in the autumn, Poles will then feel the effect of rising prices for energy and heating; this is an opportunity for us – says one of Kaczyński's advisors. He refers to the July CBOS research on the deteriorating ratings of Donald Tusk's government. "In July, we noted a significant deterioration in assessments of the government. Generally, negative opinions prevail in all dimensions. However, it seems that a certain credit of trust towards Donald Tusk's cabinet still remains, as the smallest advantage of critical opinions over acceptance votes is observed in the strictly political dimension – overall support for the government" – the research firm wrote in its July communiqué." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31197190,pis-szuka-kandydata-na-prezydenta-ma-byc-przystojny-i-z-czysta.html -- THIS IS NOT YET WAR, A COALITION BREAKUP IS FAR OFF, BUT THE PSL LEADERSHIP HAS CLEARLY SHARPENED ITS TONE AND SOMETHING HAS CHANGED IN RELATIONS WITH TUSK - KRYSTYNA NASZKOWSKA IN NEWSWEEK: "This is not yet war, a coalition breakup is far off, but the PSL leadership has clearly sharpened its tone and something has changed in relations with Tusk's party and the prime minister himself. It began with the vote in mid-July on the decriminalization bill regarding the non-punishability of individuals assisting in abortions up to the 12th week. The bill failed, although as many as 14 PiS MPs did not vote. It failed because PSL MPs voted against it. Indeed, the Peasants' Party warned that there was no discipline among them on worldview matters and a significant group would not support decriminalization, but the prime minister was surprised by the voting results, as it was unofficially said that the Peasants would abstain." -- IF THE COALITION WERE TO BREAK UP, WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO US? - WORRIES A PEASANT FROM THE WARMIA-MAZURY VOIVODESHIP FURTHER IN NASZKOWSKA'S TEXT IN NEWSWEEK: "– I don't know what the leader has in mind, that he started playing so aggressively with Tusk. I hope he doesn't miscalculate, most people in my area are worried – fears a Peasant from the Warmia-Masury Voivodeship. – Few people question Kosiniak's leadership, but if the coalition were to break up, what would happen to us? Trzecia Droga (Third Way) is weakening, and the belief that by flexing our muscles we will increase our electorate with PiS orphans is a delusion. We won't attract anyone, but some people might become discouraged with us." https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/kosiniak-wykonuje-nerwowe-ruchy-to-sie-moze-skonczyc-wyjsciem-z-rzadu/x4e1x6p,452ad802 -- AFTER THE HOLIDAYS, IT WILL BECOME CLEAR HOW PLATFORMA (CIVIC COALITION) WILL PROCEED WITH CHOOSING A CANDIDATE. MEDIA PRESSURE WILL INCREASE, SO THE QUESTION IS WHO WILL BREAK FIRST - PROF. ANTONI DUDEK IN AN INTERVIEW WITH FAKT: "- After the holidays, it will become clear how Platforma will proceed with choosing a candidate. Media pressure will increase, so the question is who will break first. Certainly, the most important factor for the presidential campaign will be which of the two main players officially announces their candidate first – assesses Dudek. He notes that "PiS will do everything to make KO do it before November 11th." – This is a symbolic date for him. He would make a decision before it and announce it at some convention on November 11th. That would be an ideal solution for him – states the well-known political scientist. He emphasizes that Kaczyński is preparing for two scenarios. The first is KO nominating Rafał Trzaskowski. The second, Donald Tusk's participation in the elections." https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/taka-taktyke-ma-miec-kaczynski-chodzi-o-wybory-prezydenckie/dxdrby4 -- DO YOU KNOW WHERE ROMAN CARES ABOUT THAT?! PLATFORMA IS GIVING HIM FINES SO THEY DON'T HURT. AS LONG AS HE CONTINUES TO CHASE PIS - A PERSON FROM GIERTYCH'S CIRCLE IN JACEK GĄDKE'S TEXT IN NEWSWEEK: "Giertych doesn't have to fear executions. After talks with the "manager" and his soldiers, he can indeed leave happy. He is allowed more than others, he even has a license for disobedience regarding abortion, which has so far cost him a 600 PLN fine in the KO club, a meaningless position for his deputy, and formal suspension. A person from Giertych's circle laughs loudly: – Do you know where Roman cares about that?! Platforma is giving him fines so they don't hurt. As long as he continues to chase PiS." -- EITHER WE WILL DESTROY PIS AND THEY WILL RETURN TO POWER - EXPLAINS ONE OF THE TOP PO POLITICIANS IN GĄDKA'S ARTICLE: "Tusk and Giertych share a fundamental element: the desire to definitively defeat PiS. – Either we will destroy PiS so that they can never return to power, or we won't destroy PiS and they will return to power, and then even an unconscious Roman will be put in jail – explains one of the top PO politicians." https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/roman-sie-wsciekl-dlaczego-tusk-ma-slabosc-do-giertycha-kulisy/81xrt7y -- "SARA'S PERSPECTIVE" IS A CONTROVERSIAL PROJECT BY PARENTS. THE GIRL – MARKETED AS AN ICON OF FREEDOM OF SPEECH AND CHILDREN'S RIGHTS – IS HERSELF DEPRIVED OF THESE RIGHTS - ANNA GOLUS IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: ""In Sara's case, regardless of her father's motives, something should be done about it, rather than focusing on what Mr. Kaczyński said" – stated psychologist Dr. Aleksandra Piotrowska in a statement to the portal zdrowie.pap.pl. Her words, however, were cut out of the article by Beata Igielska titled "Little Journalist. What About the Child's Well-being?" which had already been published on the PAP website. A fragment of the statement by speech therapist Dr. Danuta Emiluta-Rozyi, which served as the punchline of the text, was also removed. The expert spoke about the therapy of children with problems diagnosed in Sara (and publicly disclosed by her parents): "[...] Verbal experiences in a new environment are therefore important, so that the child knows that they can communicate verbally in different situations. But so much so that the child goes to conduct conversations in the Sejm? I would have doubts about that. Aren't we exposing them to difficult situations in this way?". The last three sentences were cut out." https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/perspektywa-sary-jak-rodzice-wykreowali-10-letnia-corke-na-dziennikarke-sejmowa-187854 -- BIRTHDAYS: Genowefa Tokarska, Ireneusz Zyska, Wojciech Brochwicz.

Łukasz Mężyk