state of play: 07/27/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Śmiłowicz: Tusk Might Change His Mind on Running for President, Bild: Trump Has No Intention of Favoring Putin

Łukasz Mężyk

-- "A WORLD WITHOUT HEAVEN, NATIONS, RELIGIONS, AND THIS IS THE VISION OF THE PEACE THAT IS MEANT TO EMBRACE EVERYONE. THIS IS THE VISION OF COMMUNISM, UNFORTUNATELY" - PRZEMYSŁAW BABIARZ SAID - GAZETA.PL: "Przemysław Babiarz, a TVP Sport commentator during the Olympic Games in Paris, made a telling comment about the lyrics of John Lennon's song. 'A world without heaven, nations, religions, and this is the vision of the peace that is meant to embrace everyone. This is the vision of communism, unfortunately,' he said. This is, of course, not the first time Babiarz has spoken about Lennon's song in this way. He has expressed similar sentiments since the Olympic Games in Beijing in 2008. Babiarz received praise for his words from, among others, MPs and MEPs from the Law and Justice party. (...) Zbigniew Boniek, former president of the Polish Football Association, also made an interesting comment regarding Babiarz's words. 'No one will beat Babiarz anymore,' Boniek wrote on X, suggesting that he did not like the words of the Polish Television journalist." https://www.sport.pl/igrzyska-olimpijskie/7,154863,31173788,tak-boniek-zareagowal-na-slowa-babiarza-trafil-w-samo-sedno.html -- TO EUROPE'S SURPRISE, THE REPUBLICAN DOES NOT INTEND TO MAKE CONCESSIONS TO THE KREMLIN, BUT TO DEFEND KYIV. HERE ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT POINTS OF TRUMP'S PEACE PLAN - ONET REPUBLISHES BILDS ARTICLE: "As the British newspaper reports, Donald Trump—and with him other Western decision-makers—could first allow Ukraine to use ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles against airfields in Russia. This would likely drastically impede Russian military airstrikes on Ukrainian positions and cities and cause significant damage to the Kremlin's air forces." https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/donald-trump-ma-nowy-plan-pokojowy-dla-ukrainy-zle-wiesci-dla-putina/9q0e2ey -- POLISH CONSERVATIVES ROOTING FOR TRUMP MAY SOON FIND THEMSELVES AS CARP WELCOMING CHRISTMAS. BECAUSE IF WE TRULY SEE A NEW MUNICH AT THE EXPENSE OF UKRAINE WITH TRUMP IN THE LEAD ROLE, THEN THESE SINGERS OF THE MILLIONAIRE'S POLITICS WILL BECOME PRIMARY ACCOMPLICES - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ. -- IN BRUSSELS, THE FACTION OF THE UNIFIED MAINSTREAM PARTIES STILL RULES. MEANWHILE, "OUR TRUMP" IS GOING LIKE A HURRICANE - ZAREMBA AGAIN: "I understand that the Law and Justice circles are looking for someone important and successful on the world map whom they can describe as their ally. The eurosceptic breakthrough in Europe didn't pan out; in Brussels, the faction of the unified mainstream parties still rules. Meanwhile, 'our Trump' is going like a hurricane. He's doing better and better." -- NOTHING IS SAID, BUT THE PIS FLIRTS MAY END WITH SWALLOWING A BITTER PILL - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: "For Poles, the more important question is how much Trump will undermine the current system of international security without offering anything in return. If he participates in carving up Ukraine, he will transform the international order into a jungle, pushing it back by decades. At the same time, it's not at all certain that he will do this. But the flirtations of the Polish right-wing around him may end with Kaczyński's people swallowing more than one bitter pill." https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art40864921-piotr-zaremba-plasy-wokol-donalda-trumpa -- THIS GIVES ME SOME FREEDOM; NO ONE WILL PRESSURE ME TO CONFORM TO THE PARTY LINE. AND I WILL BE ABLE TO DO OTHER THINGS THAT MATTER TO ME. AND THIS DIFFERENCE OF OPINION ARISES BECAUSE TUSK NEVER UNDERSTOOD MIGRATION PROCESSES - JANINA OCHOJSKA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: "If I feel bitterness, it is only because no one called me. Not anyone from Donald Tusk's side, as of course I don't expect him to call, nor from Third Way. They could have said: Ms. Janina, let's give a chance to the younger ones, thank you very much. And so I feel treated dismissively. On the other hand, this gives me some freedom; no one will pressure me to conform to the party line. And I will be able to do other things that matter to me. And this difference of opinion arises because Tusk never understood migration processes – that's my opinion. As President of the European Council, he spoke about migration in such a way that it was unclear what he actually thought." -- I FEEL A BIT DECEIVED BY DONALD TUSK ON THIS MATTER, BECAUSE WHEN HE TALKED ABOUT THE RULE OF LAW, HE GAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT IT ALSO APPLIES TO ACTIONS AT THE BORDER - OCHOJSKA FURTHER ON AT WIELOWIEYSKA: "I feel a bit deceived by Donald Tusk on this matter, because when he spoke about the rule of law, he gave the impression that it also applies to actions at the border. And I am sure that many activists understood it that way. We truly believed that after October 15th, one of the first decisions of the new government would be to withdraw the provision on pushbacks." -- I SAY THIS RELUCTANTLY - I THOUGHT IT LOOKED LIKE RATS FLEEING A SHIP THEY NO LONGER WANT TO SAVE - OCHOJSKA ON MINISTERS IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT: "But when I saw ministers resigning from the responsibilities they undertook and fleeing to the European Parliament, I thought – and I say this reluctantly – that it looked like rats fleeing a ship they no longer want to save." -- GOOD MIGRATION POLICY DOES NOT MEAN WE WILL ACCEPT EVERYONE WILLING TO COME TO POLAND - OCHOJSKA FURTHER ON AT WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: "I see it a bit differently. Good migration policy does not mean that we will accept everyone willing to come to Poland. I want to civilize what is happening at the border now. I don't think that if we pursued an open migration policy, millions of willing individuals would immediately appear." https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31164870,janina-ochojska-na-poczatku-rzadow-donalda-tuska-powstrzymywalam.html -- ONLY A JOINT CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT WILL SAVE THE COALITION? TUSK COULD CHANGE HIS MIND ABOUT RUNNING - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN GAZETA.PL: "Civic Coalition politicians believe that only a joint candidate for president from the entire October 15th Coalition can calm the situation within this coalition, which is increasingly torn by conflicts. Other partners are not saying no, although Third Way sees Szymon Hołownia in this role, whose support is in turn excluded by the Civic Coalition. However, one can hear within this club that if Donald Tusk were the only person with a chance for such joint support, he might change his mind about running in the presidential elections." -- TRZASKOWSKI COULD GET, FOR INSTANCE, THE POSITION OF PRIME MINISTER AS A CONSOLATION, AND HOŁOWNIA WOULD BE CONVINCED BY THE PROSPECT OF SITTING IN THE SPEAKER'S CHAIR UNTIL THE END OF THE TERM - ŚMIŁOWICZ FURTHER ON IN GAZETA.PL: "Even Tusk sometimes changes his mind if it proves politically beneficial. And if he were to run, Rafał Trzaskowski could receive, for example, the position of Prime Minister as a consolation, and Hołownia would be convinced by the prospect of sitting in the Speaker's chair until the end of the term. In turn, the Left, which would have to give up the prospect of Włodzimierz Czarzasty serving as Speaker in the second half of the term, would receive compensation, for example, in the form of more ministries in the government." https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,31177339,tylko-wspolny-kandydat-na-prezydenta-uratuje-koalicje-tusk.html -- REGARDING THE ARREST OF ROMANOWSKI, IT WAS NOT THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE THAT COMPROMISED ITSELF, BUT THE JUDGE - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: "What at first glance appeared to be a prosecutor's disgrace seems to be a judge's disgrace. (...) Judge Agata Pomianowska—vice-chairwoman of the criminal division in the Mokotów district court, a member of the Polish Judges Association Iustitia—had no document confirming Romanowski's immunity (because the letter from Theodoris Rousopoulos, President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe to the Marshal of the Sejm was not an official statement) and yet she did not conduct any analysis as to whether immunity protected him in this situation. And that is her duty. Did she show her helplessness in the face of legal analysis?" -- EVEN IF AN IMPORTANT CHANGE OCCURS, BUT THE ESSENCE REMAINS UNCHANGED, WHAT DO WE GAIN FROM SUCH A CHANGE? - KUBLIK'S CONCLUSION: "Judge Pomianowska failed, lacking the thoroughness essential for every judge. What then about a fair trial? People judge, not institutions. Even if an important change occurs, but the essence remains unchanged, what do we gain from such a change?" https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31173788,w-sprawie-aresztu-dla-romanowskiego-to-nie-prokuratura-sie-skompromitowala.html -- DISCIPLINING WOMEN CONTINUES. THIS IS NOT THE POLAND WE FOUGHT FOR - AGATA ARASZKIEWICZ IN GW: "In Poland, we did not have a sexual revolution that would liberate the possibility of asking questions or promoting more body-friendly thinking. In fact, the entire transformation is a period of a 'slept-through' war for the body, which revolves around the resurgence of religious fundamentalism and the ban on abortion, which is also a form of punishing women for their sexuality." https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31163031,dyscyplinowanie-kobiet-trwa.html -- ONE CANNOT INDEFINITELY HIDE BEHIND CONDUCTING ANALYSES. THIS IS AN OPPORTUNISTIC STANCE, BURYING ONE'S HEAD IN THE SAND - PROF. EWA ŁĘTOWSKA TELLS DOMINIKA SITNICKA IN OKO.PRESS ABOUT PUBLISHING CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL RULINGS: "We have a schizophrenic legal system. But regardless of what we think about the situation in the Constitutional Tribunal, it is still producing something that has all the external attributes of a ruling. The people sitting there are continuously receiving their salaries,' Prof. Ewa Łętowska tells OKO.press. 'Some attach importance to purely formal matters and take the position that despite all reservations, the Constitutional Tribunal is still a constitutional body and such judgments should be published. Another strategy is to refer to rulings of the CJEU, ECtHR judgments, and state clearly that in light of our standards and international obligations, it is not a judicial body, so these rulings should not be published. I would expect those responsible for publishing the judgments to announce their decision. What strategy they adopt, what assessment of the situation they make. One cannot indefinitely hide behind conducting analyses. This is an opportunistic stance, burying one's head in the sand.'" https://oko.press/rzad-od-miesiecy-analizuje-czy-publikowac-wyroki-tk-prof-letowska-to-postawa-oportunistyczna -- AT NOWOGRODZKA STREET, THERE IS A CONVICTION THAT THERE IS NO NEED TO WORRY ABOUT THE FIRST ROUND OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN MID-2025 – WE ARE ALREADY THINKING ABOUT THE SECOND ROUND - JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: "At Nowogrodzka Street, there is a conviction that there is no need to worry about the first round of the presidential elections in mid-2025 – 'We are already thinking about the second round,' says one of our contacts from the PiS camp. This is because support for PiS is not eroding significantly despite losing power and the ongoing process of accountability being initiated by Prime Minister Donald Tusk's government. 'The results of the EP and local government elections have proven that we have stable support. According to our calculations, our candidate will not drop below 26-27% support in the first round, and that guarantees entry into the second,' says a person close to PiS headquarters. To recall: in the EP elections, PiS won over 36% and came second. In local government elections, slightly over 34%." https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/mamy-liste-kandydatow-pis-na-prezydenta-a-na-niej-zaskoczenie/mhzkqcy -- THOSE WHO SHOUT SO LOUDLY TREAT THOSE THEY CLAIM TO DEFEND: WOMEN, GAY COUPLES, AS HOSTAGES IN THEIR GAME. I PROPOSE THAT REGARDING DEPENALIZATION, WE AGREE ON WHAT IS POSSIBLE AND THEN PASS IT - MAREK BOROWSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: "I already hear shouts: 'Why do we need a partial law? If it's going to be like this, it's better to have none!' We hear the same thing regarding the registered partnership law: there is no right to adopt children – so the law can be scrapped. Those who shout so loudly treat those they claim to defend (women, gay couples) as hostages in their political game. They tell them more or less this: they want to improve your fate only partially, they don't want to include all your demands, so let's wait for better times, and for now, let it be as bad as it has been so far. Such reasoning is completely alien to me. Therefore, I propose that regarding depenalization, we agree on what is possible and then pass it." https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2264517,1,aborcja-w-sejmie-co-mozna-zrobic.read -- THERE ARE MANY MORE POLISH WOMEN VOTING FOR PSL, PIS, KONFEDERACJA, AND EVEN THE CENTRIST WING OF KO THAN POLISH WOMEN VOTING FOR THE LEFT. RADICAL ACTIVISTS MUST LEARN TO TALK TO THESE WOMEN - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: "Well, there are incomparably more Polish women voting for PSL, PiS, Konfederacja, and even the centrist or conservative wing of KO, than Polish women voting for the Left today. Do radical leftists think that all these women are so stupid that they don't notice who and what they are voting for? That would be paternalistic and exclusionary, and yet the radical left is supposedly not characterized by either paternalism or exclusionary attitudes." https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-jak-aktywistki-stracily-kontakt-z-kobietami,nId,7723289 -- BIRTHDAYS: Wiesław Władyka, Grzegorz Kajdanowicz, Jacek Tomczak, Stanisław Gorczyca. SUNDAY: Janusz Niemcewicz, Kazimierz Michał Ujazdowski, Piotr Maślak.

Łukasz Mężyk