state of play: 07/16/2024

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Szułdrzyński: The current coalition's personnel decisions, rather than increasing our state's role, resemble a sandbox squabble; Przyborska: The chance of the PSL-PiS candidate occupying the presidency is growing.

Łukasz Mężyk

-- "ABORTION ON DEMAND WOULD BE UNACCEPTABLE". The Commissioner for Civil Rights on the Constitutional Tribunal's rulings - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/07/16 -- THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT COALITION'S PERSONNEL DECISIONS, RATHER THAN INCREASING OUR STATE'S ROLE, RESEMBLE A SANDBOX SQUABBLE - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Compared to the Ministers of Foreign Affairs in PiS governments, Sikorski is an absolute diplomatic star. This makes it even more surprising that the personnel decisions of the current government coalition, rather than increasing our state's role, resemble a sandbox squabble, which neither builds the credibility of Civic Platform nor respect for the Polish state.” -- ARE WE TO BELIEVE THAT NEITHER THE AMERICANS NOR THE BRITISH CHECKED HIM? ACCUSING HIM TODAY OF WHO KNOWS WHAT SIMPLY ENDANGERS THE DIGNITY OF THE POLISH STATE - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI FURTHER ON SZATKOWSKI: “Recently, one of the NATO ambassadors in Warsaw, in a conversation with me, expressed surprise at what the government was doing. – They have the right to change ambassadors. But undermining his loyalty to the state makes Polish services look ridiculous – he said. And he pointed out that Szatkowski's CV includes studies at a British intelligence school and a US naval academy. – Are we to believe that neither the Americans nor the British checked him? Accusing him today of who knows what simply endangers the dignity of the Polish state.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40814451-michal-szuldrzynski-wojna-o-ambasadorow-szkodzi-wszystkim -- THERE IS NO COALITION - KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “There is no coalition. PSL voted together with PiS and Konfederacja. Third Way probably doesn't exist anymore either. There have been sparks between the coalition partners for a long time, but the legal-human rights issues seem to be a breakthrough, which are important for the MPs of Poland 2050, as shown by the debate on the amendment decriminalizing the unlawful use of weapons at the border, and the vote on abortion, where 30 MPs from Poland 2050 voted for decriminalization, while as many as 24 from PSL voted against) and the stance on registered partnerships – PSL is unwavering on the issue of adoption by same-sex couples. As it turns out, PSL got on Poland 2050, rode to the Sejm, and is now clearly becoming independent.” -- THE CHANCE OF THE PRESIDENCY BEING OCCUPIED BY A PSL-PIS CANDIDATE IS GROWING - PRZYBORSKA FURTHER: “The unmasked PSL can freely accept the leftovers of PiS to form a coalition with Beata Szydło's or Mastalerka's conservative party. We must hurry, because with the disintegration of the October 15 Coalition, the chance of the presidency being occupied by a PSL-PiS candidate is growing. Well done, democrats! It was worth it. It was really worth playing anti-PiS and anti-conservative, weakening the Left and thus the entire coalition.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/sejm-odebral-immunitet-marcin-romanowski-mariusz-blaszczak/ -- AS A RESULT OF DEFEAT, THE IMPRESSION MAY GROW, TRANSFORMING INTO A MORE LASTING MYTH, THAT THE CURRENT AUTHORITIES ARE UNABLE TO DO TOO MUCH - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “In a sense, Friday's vote had little significance. If President Duda announced a veto, the law would not come into force anyway, at least until the presidential elections in 2025. However, the vote was significant for emotional reasons – the government parties promised rapid improvement in the area of women's rights during the election campaign; however, instead, further disappointments are coming. The coalition also lost an opportunity to demonstrate effectiveness in a symbolic matter. Meanwhile, as a result of the defeat, the impression may grow, transforming into a more lasting myth, that the current authorities are unable to do too much. It would be in the coalition's interest to break this impression.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/07/15/sawczuk-prawa-kobiet-jako-symbol/ -- THE MEMORY OF KACZYŃSKI'S LAST GOVERNMENTS IS FRESHER THAN THE MEMORY OF HIS FIRST GOVERNMENTS FROM 2006-2007 WAS IN 2015. ALL OF THIS MEANS THAT THE "NEW DUDA" WILL HAVE TROUBLES - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: "The New Duda" will face younger and politically stronger opponents. Moreover, the October 15 Coalition has its governing problems, but it cannot be said to be completely worn out yet. Also, the memory of Kaczyński's last governments is fresher than the memory of his first governments from 2006-2007 was in 2015. All of this means that the "New Duda" will have troubles. However, again, Kaczyński's goal is not the presidency, but the party and the government. Even the defeat of his next "golden boy" in the second round of the presidential elections, but with a good result, would give him a moment's respite as PiS leader. It would build a counterbalance to Morawiecki and any other contender. And the victory of such a candidate would be salvation for Kaczyński. Also in the perspective of the next parliamentary elections. The next PiS president would prevent Tusk from governing”. -- WHAT I AM WRITING HERE AND WHAT DONALD TUSK KNOWS ABOUT SIKORSKI - THAT HE IS NOT A BRUTUS TYPE - MICHALSKI FURTHER IN INTERIA: “Sikorski would have remained in PiS until today if it weren't for Lech Kaczyński's obsession with him. Jarosław Kaczyński did not share this obsession; he knew about Sikorski what I am writing here and what Donald Tusk knows about Sikorski – that he is not a Brutus type. Even if he sometimes tells a joke about his boss, he will never stab him in the back”. -- WITH COMPLETELY INFORMAL GOVERNANCE, WE WILL BE AN EVEN MORE EURASIAN COUNTRY, AND THE EU ANCHOR CAN ALWAYS BREAK OFF - MICHALSKI ON THE PROSPECT OF TUSK'S PRESIDENCY: “Poland governed informally by a strong leader is a return to the Sanation era, when the Marshal had his prime ministers and even his president. We are a somewhat Eurasian country, happily anchored in the EU. With completely informal governance, we will be an even more Eurasian country, and the EU anchor can always break off. With Tusk, I fear this somewhat less (although one can only have full trust in their cat, not in a politician, even one they voted for themselves). But after Tusk, anyone can take over his informal power.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-prezydentura-jako-narzedzie-nie-jako-cel,nId,7648199 -- GOVERNANCE IS DRIVEN BY RIGHT-LEFT BLACKMAIL OF "EXTREME SOLUTIONS," AND THE COWARDICE OF THE LIBERAL CENTER IS SYMPTOMATIC - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “If someone asks why the liberal center, or more broadly liberal democracy, is experiencing a crisis today, why the West is faltering under the onslaught of populist extremes, why the far-left and far-right are seducing voters uncertain of tomorrow – it is because mainstream elites have stopped understanding their role, are opportunistic, terrified, and above all, submissive to various forms of blackmail. The right blackmails them with populism and moral rigorism, the left with political correctness and new puritanism. And both are overcome with brazenness.” -- THE INABILITY OF POLISH ELITES TO SEEK COMPROMISES IN IMPORTANT SOCIAL MATTERS, THE INFANTILIZATION OF MEDIA-POLITICAL LIFE - SZUBARTOWICZ FURTHER: “After the failed vote on the decriminalization of abortion, one can be tempted to reflect that Poland is heading in a similar direction. The inability of Polish elites to seek compromises in important social matters, right-wing and left-wing blackmail of "extreme solutions," the cowardice of the liberal center, the infantilization of media-political life, the questioning of the legal order and the state by the right, the capriciousness of the democratic sovereign who changes their mind after every failed vote, the inability of progressives and conservatives to respect each other – all of this makes Putin's hybrid war lose its meaning. Its goal – chaos and powerlessness – has been self-generated by the political elites of the West, with a large contribution from new-type autocrats who have devastated the social contract. And democrats afraid of their own shadow, who have lost their own language and ideas.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-w-strone-barbarzynstwa,nId,7653149 -- BIRTHDAYS: Lech Sołtys, Danuta Grabowska.

Łukasz Mężyk