state of play: 07/10/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Gądek: PiS Will Play on Proximity to Trump, Czaputowicz: Will We Pay for Lecturing Americans with Weakened Military Cooperation? Chrzczonowicz: Exam for the Coalition on Abortion on July 12

Łukasz Mężyk

-- POLL FOR WP: A MAJOR SHAKE-UP FOR PiS AND A WEAKER KO: 31.2% of respondents in a United Surveys poll for Wirtualna Polska declared their support for the Civic Coalition. This represents a 3.2 percentage point drop in support compared to the previous survey, conducted in the second half of June. This is the second largest drop in the entire ranking. An even greater shake-up occurred with Law and Justice. In the survey, Jarosław Kaczyński's party was indicated by 27.2% of respondents, a decrease of as much as 6.5 percentage points compared to two weeks prior.
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40791731-nowy-sondaz-mocne-tapniecie-pis-tylko-jedna-partia-ze-wzrostem-poparcia -- IMPROVED SECURITY, IMPROVED HEALTHCARE SYSTEM, AND LIMITED PRICE GROWTH - THESE THREE ISSUES, IN THE CONTEXT OF GOVERNMENT WORK, WERE IDENTIFIED AS PRIORITIES BY CBOS POLL PARTICIPANTS. THE INTRODUCTION OF CIVIL UNIONS CAME LAST - GW:
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,31130034,polacy-radza-tuskowi-czym-powinien-zajac-sie-rzad-jest-sondaz.html -- "WE ARE ENDING THE DISCUSSION, IT'S TIME FOR DECISIONS." TUSK ON ABORTION DECRIMINALIZATION AND CIVIL UNIONS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/07/10 -- COULD IT BE THAT FOR LECTURING AMERICANS, WE WILL PAY WITH THE WEAKENING OF OUR MILITARY COOPERATION? OR PERHAPS THAT IS THE INTENTION - JACEK CZAPUTOWICZ IN RZ: “Prime Minister Tusk misses no opportunity to lecture Americans, also commenting on the US Supreme Court's verdict against Donald Trump: 'Guilt and punishment are determined by law, it doesn't matter if the perpetrator is a president or a minister.' At the same time, he praises President Andrzej Duda's talks with Xi Jinping. Perhaps because, unlike Donald Trump, the leader of China was a champion of law observance? The Polish prime minister's and foreign minister's tweets also resonated widely in the US. After the presidential debate in America, Tusk wrote that the Democrats have a real problem. In turn, Minister Radosław Sikorski compared today's United States to the Roman Empire on the verge of collapse. Could it be that for lecturing Americans, we will pay with the weakening of our military cooperation? Or perhaps that is the intention. The presence of American troops in Poland is, after all, an obstacle to achieving other goals.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40786321-jacek-czaputowicz-dylematy-polityki-bezpieczenstwa-niemcy-czy-usa -- PiS WILL PLAY ON PROXIMITY TO TRUMP - JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “In the event of Trump's victory, PiS and its candidate will be able to argue that thanks to good contacts with Republicans and friendliness towards Trump, they will better ensure the country's security. (...) In the event of a Trump victory, whom PiS strongly supports, the candidate nominated by Nowogrodzka [PiS headquarters] for president will be able to argue that he—the Polish equivalent of Trump—is the guarantor of close relations with the USA under Donald Trump's leadership. After all, Prime Minister Donald Tusk publicly—and it echoed around the world—scolded the Republicans and told them to be ashamed for blocking aid to Ukraine for so long. Similarly, Rafał Trzaskowski, the expected candidate of the Civic Coalition for president, is light-years away from Trump supporters.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/pis-chce-polskiego-trumpa-wydamy-setki-tysiecy-zlotych/g3q01nz -- GAZETA WYBORCZA CONSIDERED PUBLISHING AN ARTICLE BY TOMASZ LIŚ. ADAM MICHNIK WAS SAID TO BE ADVOCATING FOR THE IDEA. HOWEVER, AFTER OBJECTIONS FROM OVER 100 PEOPLE FROM THE EDITORIAL STAFF, IT WAS DECIDED THAT THE TEXT WOULD NOT BE PUBLISHED – THE WIRTUALNEMEDIA.PL PORTAL LEARNED: “However, the idea of publication did not appeal to part of the 'GW' team. According to our unofficial information, over 100 people signed a protest letter against granting editorial space to Tomasz Lis. At Czerska [Gazeta Wyborcza headquarters], they remember the accusations that followed the well-known journalist after his work at Ringier Axel Springer Polska ended. We unofficially hear that Adam Michnik, the formal editor-in-chief of 'Wyborcza,' wanted to publish Lis's text. His deputies and recognizable faces of the editorial staff reportedly persuaded him to change his mind. – We do not comment on the internal affairs of 'Wyborcza' – Roman Imielski, the first deputy editor-in-chief of 'Gazeta Wyborcza,' who operationally manages the editorial office, cut short when asked for a comment by Wirtualnemedia.pl.”
https://www.wirtualnemedia.pl/artykul/gazeta-wyborcza-tomasz-lis-artykul-protest-redakcji-dlaczego -- ABORTION IN THE SEJM. AN EXAM FOR THE RULING COALITION ON JULY 12 - MAGDALENA CHRZCZONOWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “If, however, the proposals of the Civic Coalition and Third Way reach the plenary session, it does not mean they will be adopted. Everything depends on whether the October 15th Coalition agrees on this matter. Part of the PSL MPs will be against the Civic Coalition's proposal – this was the case in April when the proposals went to committee. At that time, the proposals of the Civic Coalition and the Left passed, but likely some PSL MPs voted for them, knowing it was only the first reading. For the Civic Coalition's proposal, as many as 16 people from PSL-TD abstained, and 8 were for rejecting the project. It is enough for these 24 people to vote against the Civic Coalition's proposal. And then it will fail too. What remains for us is the so-called compromise, i.e., the Third Way's proposal, but here MPs from the Left and the Civic Coalition may rebel, considering that since Third Way did not support more liberal projects, they will not support the conservative one. And here, strong political pressure will be necessary, which Prime Minister Tusk would probably have to exert.” -- AND AGAIN – EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON POLITICAL PRESSURE WITHIN THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION - CHRZCZONOWICZ'S CONCLUSION IN OKO.PRESS: “Therefore, we cannot be sure of the outcome of Friday's vote on the law decriminalizing abortion assistance. And again – everything depends on political pressure within the October 15 Coalition.”
https://oko.press/aborcja-w-sejmie-egzamin-dla-rzadzacej-koalicji-juz-12-lipca-depenalizacja-przejdzie -- IN PiS, THEY CITE THE CIVIC PLATFORM AS AN EXAMPLE. THE DISCUSSION ABOUT CHANGING THE NAME IS ONGOING - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “The first serious considerations were to be taken during the spring local elections. The party decided they would be the best test. The idea arose to use the name United Right, already associated with PiS. Especially since signals of unification were already coming to PiS from Zbigniew Ziobro's Sovereign Poland. - It was the most obvious slogan; after eight years, people have become accustomed to the United Right government; it was broad and could accommodate anyone who wanted to cooperate with us in the future - says a PiS MP.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31128228,w-pis-jako-przyklad-podaja-platforme-obywatelska-dyskusja-o.html -- THE CPK MYTH IS LIKE THE SMOLENSK MYTH - MAREK SERAFIN IN GW: “The decision to continue this gigantic investment is a defeat of reason and a triumph of irrational propaganda. (...) A huge promotional fund of the CPK company was used here. As a result of this campaign, the project of the new airport and gigantic railway investments took on a mythical character, comparable to the Smolensk myth. The level of aggression towards critics of the project was similar, for example.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31128622,mit-cpk-jak-mit-smolenski.html -- 32ND ANNIVERSARY OF HANNA SUCHOCKA'S APPOINTMENT AS THE FIRST POLISH WOMAN PRIME MINISTER. -- FORMER PRIME MINISTER ON THE BACKSTAGE OF HER APPOINTMENT AS PRIME MINISTER – WHO GOVERNS US WITH HANNA SUCHOCKA ON WIRTUALNA POLSKA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yL0RSDcQzFQ -- THE POLITICAL 90s IN A NUTSHELL IN INTERIA'S PHOTOS FROM SUCHOCKA'S PREMIERSHIP: https://nowahistoria.interia.pl/historia-na-fotografii/hanna-suchocka-pierwsza-w-polsce-kobieta-premier-zdjecie,iId,1524889,iAId,121830 -- BIRTHDAYS: Aleksandra Dulkiewicz (45), Michał Wilgocki, Władysław Dajczak, Ludwik Kotecki, Killion Munyama, Lucjan Karasiewicz.

Łukasz Mężyk