state of play: 07/01/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Sikorski on Presidential Candidates, Gawkowski's Alleged Ambitions for Civic Coalition, and Matysiak's Suspension Harming the Left's Independence

Łukasz Mężyk

-- TUSK: RZESZÓW WAS AMONG THE PLACES WHERE THE ABW DELEGATION WAS UNJUSTIFIABLY REMOVED - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/07/01 -- UNLIKE THE OPPOSITION, WE HAVE SEVERAL GOOD CANDIDATES FOR THIS POSITION - RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI IN AN INTERVIEW WITH JACEK PAWLICKI FOR NEWSWEEK: "I have already been a Marshal. Marshal of the Sejm of the Republic of Poland. As a child, I wanted to be a field marshal, but I probably won't become one anymore. It is true that the commander-in-chief of the armed forces should have experience in foreign policy and defense, have extensive international contacts, and should at least distinguish a battalion from a brigade. Unlike the opposition, we have several good candidates for this position." -- RUSSIA IS HIRING SABOTEURS WHO ARE ATTEMPTING OR CARRYING OUT ACTS OF TERROR AND SABOTAGE THROUGHOUT THE NORTH ATLANTIC ALLIANCE TERRITORY, INCLUDING POLAND - SIKORSKI CONTINUES IN NEWSWEEK: "Russia is already attacking. We are in a hybrid war, which means attacks not only in cyberspace or the informational sphere, but in the real, kinetic sphere. Russia is hiring saboteurs who are attempting or carrying out acts of terror and sabotage throughout the North Atlantic Alliance territory, including Poland." -- WE MUST PROTECT THE BORDERS, BUT THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE CONSIDER THEM ZOOPHILES OR THAT WE WILL SHOCK THEM WITH THEIR SKIN COLOR. AS A GOVERNMENT, WE ARE SIMPLY FULFILLING OUR CONSTITUTIONAL DUTIES TO PROTECT THE BORDER - SIKORSKI CONTINUES IN NEWSWEEK: "Some of them, for example, the one who fatally wounded our soldier, are of course ordinary bandits, but at the same time, among them are also people who simply want a better life. We must protect the borders, but this does not mean we consider them zoophiles or that we will shock them with their skin color. As a government, we are simply fulfilling our constitutional duties to protect the borders of Poland, the European Union, and the Schengen Area. We are trying to do this humanely, not by inciting hatred." -- THERE IS NO SUCH HUMAN RIGHT AS THE LEFT CLAIMS. IF IT EXISTED, THERE WOULD BE NO VISAS, NO PASSPORTS, NO BORDER CROSSINGS, ETC. AND IF THEY EXIST, IT IS FOR A REASON - SIKORSKI CONTINUES: "I am not afraid of such a discussion, because I believe that a debate about migration, stripped of its racist dimension, is necessary for Poland. It should not be avoided, as some representatives of the left do, implying that everyone has the right to live in any country they please. Well, there is no such human right. If it existed, there would be no visas, no passports, no border crossings, etc. And if they exist, it is for a reason. Critics of Western governments should answer the question of whether we are truly capable of accepting a billion people from North Africa and the Middle East who would prefer to live here rather than there, and for obvious reasons. For time immemorial, people have moved where there are better living conditions." https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/sikorski-rosja-nam-grozi-zachod-zmarnowal-duzo-czasu-tylko-u-nas/88cqrtx -- BEFORE THE 2019 ELECTIONS, PIS CHAIRMAN JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI ASKED ZBIGNIEW ZIOBRO TO "IMMEDIATELY PROHIBIT SOLIDARNA POLSKA CANDIDATES FROM USING THE JUSTICE FUND IN THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN" - WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW. -- THE PIS GOVERNMENT TOLERATED, OR EVEN AGREED TO, THE ZIOBRO GROUP TREATING THE FUND AS PARTY CASH - CZUCHNOWSKI CONTINUES: "From the materials gathered by Team No. 2, it appears that the PiS government tolerated, or even agreed to, the Ziobro group treating the Fund as party cash. At the same time, from Kaczyński's letter, it is evident that the PiS chairman and his associates were aware of the associated risks." -- IN 2021 AND 2022, THE HEAD OF GOVERNMENT SUMMONED ZIOBRO THREE TIMES TO PROVIDE EXPLANATIONS - CLAIMS CZUCHNOWSKI: "It remains a secret why Ziobro did not comply with Kaczyński's demands, and money continued to be drawn from the Fund. Ziobro also did not respond to letters sent to him by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. In 2021 and 2022, the head of government summoned Ziobro three times to provide explanations." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31103819,tajny-list-kaczynskiego-co-prezes-pis-wiedzial-o-funduszu.html -- THE SMALL COALITION PARTNERS ARE NOW FOCUSED SOLELY ON FIGHTING FOR SURVIVAL, WHICH PORTENDS A TERM FULL OF TURBULENCE AND CONFLICTS - RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: "The weakening of the 'little ones' already has its own momentum. Falling support increasingly influences internal calculations and planned strategies. It favors divisive actions, although these are currently only nascent, mostly without serious consequences. It provokes spectacular actions, though not necessarily agreed upon with coalition partners. This has almost always ended in the anarchization of the entire political system in the past. Will Prime Minister Donald Tusk, strengthened after the recent elections, find a way to keep the coalition in check?" -- TUSK IS PROBABLY NOT SO WORRIED BY THE WEAKNESS OF HIS PARTNER, AS HIS POWER IS GROWING. ALTHOUGH IN THE LONG RUN IT SHOULD BE, BECAUSE THE DROPS IN THIRD WAY'S RATINGS ARE NOT ACCOMPANIED BY EQUIVALENT INCREASES IN CIVIC COALITION'S RATINGS - KALUKIN CONTINUES IN POLITYKA: "Tusk is probably not so worried by the weakness of his partner, as his power is growing. Although in the long run it should be, because the drops in Third Way's ratings are not accompanied by equivalent increases in Civic Coalition's ratings. Some part of the voters always drifts away, loses interest in politics, and some have also fled to Konfederacja. Thus, the balance is unfavorable for the entire October 15 coalition. Above all, however, there is no indication that Tusk is deliberately weakening Third Way now. He simply hasn't thrown it another lifebuoy." -- IT IS WORTH MAKING AN EFFORT, CONDUCTING A SUCCESSFUL CAMPAIGN, AND FIGHTING FOR SEVERAL PERCENT OF VOTES, WHICH SHOULD HALT THE DECOMPOSITION PROCESSES WITHIN HIS FORMATION. WITH SUCH CAPITAL, HE WOULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER - WRITES KALUKIN: "It is no wonder that Hołownia, despite understandable objections – as heard in the corridors – is still leaning more towards running. After all, even with diminishing chances of winning the big palace, it is worth making an effort, conducting a successful campaign, and fighting for a dozen or so percent of votes, which should halt the decomposition processes within his formation. With such capital, he would once again become a significant player who celebrates transferring support and reaps benefits from it." -- BIEJAT IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE, AND IT IS SHE WHO IS SETTING THE TONE FOR THE ENTIRE ENVIRONMENT TODAY. AS A POTENTIAL CANDIDATE FOR THE LEFT IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, SHE MAY HAVE A PERSONAL MOTIVATION TO REMAIN IN THE MAINSTREAM - WRITES KALUKIN: "The speeches of the most recognizable politician of Razem have, however, fueled media speculation about a possible split. However, these seem to be greatly exaggerated, as his leadership partner Magdalena Biejat is not going anywhere, and it is she who is setting the tone for the entire environment today. As a potential candidate for the Left in the presidential elections, she may have a personal motivation to remain in the mainstream, although an overall diagnosis likely stands behind it as well. Simply put, in Polish realities, the 'naughty' left advocated by Zandberg is, in the foreseeable future, condemned to the role of an extra-parliamentary bench." -- SOME EVEN SUGGEST THAT GAWKOWSKI DREAMS OF AN INVITATION TO THE CIVIC COALITION - UKALUKINA CONTINUES: "It is better, therefore, to focus on maintaining the electorate that still remains with the Left and accepts its secondary position in the coalition. Vice-Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Affairs Krzysztof Gawkowski is primarily associated with such an attitude, although he is increasingly accused within his home club of excessive conciliation, and often even of subservient attention to Prime Minister Tusk in public appearances. Some even suggest that Gawkowski dreams of an invitation to the Civic Coalition, which, incidentally, is not an exotic notion within the left-wing club." https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2261133,1,wstrzasy-drzenia-i-pomruki-w-koalicji-mali-sa-skrajnie-wycienczeni-walcza-o-przetrwanie.read -- PAULINA MATYSIAK'S SUSPENSION FOR SEEKING AGREEMENT IS THE WORST THOUGHT CRIME - ROCH ZYGMUNT IN RP: "This is not serious, but also dangerous for the Left itself, which – if it had ambitions to strengthen itself as an independent entity – should be a rotational coalition capable of cooperating with both PO and – yes, yes – with PiS. Perhaps point by point, ad hoc, but still. After all, both major parties have their left-leaning flanks, which the groupings of Włodzimierz Czarzasty, Robert Biedroń, and – above all – Adrian Zandberg could support." https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40730341-roch-zygmunt-paulina-matysiak-zawieszona-bo-szukanie-porozumienia-to-najgorsza-myslozbrodnia -- MATYSIAK AND HORAŁA DO NOT UNDERSTAND THAT DEVELOPMENT IS MORE THAN POURING CONCRETE - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: "State investments of the kind of PRL's grand socialist constructions are not needed by Poland, but by politicians like Paulina Matysiak and Marcin Horała, who can promote themselves through them. (...) Let politicians set themselves the goal of halving the average waiting time for a legally binding court decision in commercial court, introducing several Polish universities into the top one hundred best universities in the world, increasing cancer survival rates by half, extending the average lifespan of Poles to the EU average. Let us recall – a man in Poland lives on average 74.8 years, in the European Union 78.9 years. Perhaps the Horała and Matysiak movement will take up something like this?" https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31103819,matysiak-i-horala-nie-rozumieja-ze-rozwoj-to-cos-wiecej-niz.html -- DISPUTES ARE INTENSIFYING IN THE EU, AND IN THE SHORT TERM, POLAND IS BECOMING AN IMPORTANT PLAYER IN THE FACE OF THE WEAKNESS OF FRENCH AND GERMAN LEADERSHIP, BUT IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ENSURE OUR SECURITY IN THE COMING STORM - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RP: "In the short term, this increases Poland's role. Not only in negotiations concerning the appointment of the highest positions in the EU, but also in other matters, Donald Tusk is starting to push other leaders off the podium. Also in foreign and security matters in the context of the war, Poland's voice counts more and more – thanks to its unique geopolitical situation, but also thanks to the charisma of Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski. But in the long run, we need both American military support for NATO, a strong NATO, a strong and united Europe, which will be ready to face the increasingly aggressive policy of the Kremlin. Poland's leadership is needed, but it is not enough to ensure our security in the storm that seems to be approaching." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40742321-michal-szuldrzynski-przegrana-bidena-wybory-we-francji-awantura-na-szczycie-ue-co-to-znaczy-dla-bezpieczenstwa-polski -- FOR NOW, DONALD TUSK HAS MANAGED TO PARTIALLY REMOVE THE CPK ISSUE FROM THE LIST OF DISPUTES. AND IT WAS A THREAT TO HIM. IT MADE PIS A PARTY OF AMBITIOUS MODERNIZATION OF POLAND AND MOBILIZED AT LEAST PART OF THE COMPLETELY NON-PIS MIDDLE CLASS AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: "For now, Tusk has managed to partially remove the CPK issue from the list of disputes. And it was a threat to him. It made PiS a party of ambitious modernization of Poland and mobilized at least part of the completely non-PiS middle class against the government. The Polish king Sigismund Augustus was called a 'procrastinator' in the 16th century because he skillfully postponed definitive decisions 'until tomorrow'. It is possible that Tusk will also deserve such a nickname." -- BUT NOW THE AUDITS HAVE SUDDENLY BECOME UNNECESSARY. TUSK'S POLITICAL INTEREST WAS ENOUGH - WRITES ZAREMBA: "A large hub is to be built in Baranów, as planned by PiS, but only after the expansion of airports in Warsaw and Modlin. The opposition sees this program as a reason for delay and a threat to the main investment. The previous government promised to open CPK for use in 2028. The new one points to 2032. Incidentally, the first half-year was wasted masterfully. The new government's plenipotentiary, Maciej Lasek, was unable to conduct an audit. But now the audits have suddenly become unnecessary. Tusk's political interest was enough." -- THE CIVIC COALITION LEADER BELIEVED (OR STILL BELIEVES?) THAT THE SOLE, OR AT LEAST THE MAIN, MANDATE FOR HIM TO EXERCISE POWER IS TO ORGANIZE A PERMANENT CAMPAIGN OF PUNISHING PIS POLITICIANS - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN INTERIA: "The leader of the Civic Coalition believed (or still believes?) that the sole, or at least the main, mandate for him to exercise power is to organize a permanent campaign of punishment (retribution) against PiS politicians. Therefore, he could consider all ambitious projects a waste of time and money. In a moment of sincerity, he described Kaczyński's stubbornness regarding CPK as a 'romantic pipe dream.' He saw himself as a 'realist.'" https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-trojskok-tuska-gra-na-czas-czy-cos-wiecej,nId,7612167 -- MORAWIECKI IS GROWING STRONGER, KACZYŃSKI WEAKER. WILL THERE BE A SPLIT? - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ AND BEATA LUBECKA IN A PODCAST: "According to the program hosts, Morawiecki can temporarily accept this, wait for the defeat of the PiS candidate, and then strike. But he could also run as an independent candidate, which would be a declaration of war on Kaczyński and would split the PiS electorate. - Especially since there are voices from PiS about how election campaigns are financed illegally. There would be people who would invest in Morawiecki - says Stankiewicz. This is a scenario that could cause a political storm. Beata Lubecka adds that a good result for Morawiecki could become the beginning of a new political force on the Polish right. Especially since the former prime minister could receive support from politicians of the isolated Sovereign Poland." https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/morawiecki-rosnie-w-sile-kaczynski-slabnie-dojdzie-do-rozlamu/ze2mkqx -- BIRTHDAYS: Michał Seweryński, Krzysztof Szubert, Szymon Ziółkowski.

Łukasz Mężyk