state of play: 06/29/2024

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Kublik: In a good series, viewers don't have to guess what the screenwriters are up to. And in Tusk's series, they increasingly have to. Pers: At the beginning of PiS's rule, when the Constitutional Tribunal scandal broke, they said th

Łukasz Mężyk

-- EIGHTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE DEATH OF JANINA PARADOWSKA. -- IN A GOOD SERIES, VIEWERS DON'T HAVE TO GUESS WHAT THE SCREENWRITERS ARE UP TO. AND IN TUSK'S SERIES, THEY INCREASINGLY HAVE TO - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “In our times, the unadulterated truth doesn't sell itself. And it doesn't defend itself. Especially in politics. Today, politicians are not expected to provide objective facts, but parables about what facts – or perhaps most importantly – these politicians mean in our daily lives. Tusk's government doesn't have that. Its own truth. And its own parable. Emotions count, which is why told facts count. Damn well-told facts.” -- THE PRIME MINISTER, ALTHOUGH HE HANDLES STORIES EXCELLENTLY AND HAS INTUITION AND ENERGY, CANNOT SIMULTANEOUSLY BE HEAD OF GOVERNMENT, GOVERNMENT SPOKESPERSON, THE SUPERGROUP COALITION OF OCTOBER 15, AND REPRESENTATIVE OF ALL HIS MINISTERS - KUBLIK CONTINUES IN GW: “PiS dictates. Recently, the government lost the case regarding the shooting at the Belarusian border. And it lost doubly. It allowed itself to be dictated a narrative about wronged soldiers and quickly reacted with new regulations giving – as commentators aptly dubbed them – a "license to kill in peacetime". Which it abandoned even sooner. Why didn't it say how it really was from the beginning? Because the government is Tusk. And the Prime Minister, although he handles stories excellently and has intuition and energy, cannot simultaneously be head of government, government spokesperson, the supergroup Coalition of October 15, and representative of all his ministers.” -- SHE MAY BECOME A SYMBOL OF HER MINISTRY. JUST AS THE NOBEL LAUREATE TOKARCZUK'S "I DIDN'T FINISH" BECAME A SYMBOL OF THE INTELLECTUAL GLINSKI'S MINISTRY - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK CONTINUES IN GW: “Another slip-up was Barbara Nowacka's words about "some Rymkiewicz". As if she wanted to convey to everyone that she doesn't know who Rymkiewicz is, because she knows he's nobody. To this company, she added "Mr. Dukaj" – that is, the most outstanding, most, perhaps even more, internationally known Polish writer. The Lem of the 21st century. This dismissive "some" and deprecating "Mr." harm Nowacka and the cabinet she sits in. She may become a symbol of her ministry. Just as the Nobel laureate Tokarczuk's "I didn't finish" became a symbol of the intellectual Gliński's ministry.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31092455,w-dobrym-serialu-widz-nie-musi-sie-domyslac-o-co-chodzi-scenarzystom.html -- AT THE BEGINNING OF PIŚ'S RULE, WHEN THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL AFFAIR BROKE OUT, PEOPLE SAID THE SAME THING. THAT PIŚ HAD WORN ITSELF OUT AND WAS ON THE VERGE OF COLLAPSE - ANALYST DANIEL PERS IN CONVERSATION WITH MACIEJ BĄK IN ONE-T: “Nothing like that happened, PO maintained its result, so the lever was shifted in 2007, and it didn't wear out for four years. And at this moment, a similar cycle is beginning. Meanwhile, now the entire commentary-journalistic-analytical scene lives with a question mark, on the principle of whether PiS is returning to power? And yet, only half a year of this government has passed, so wondering what would happen if elections were held next Sunday is absurd. Let me remind you that at the beginning of PiS's rule, when the Constitutional Tribunal affair broke out, the same was said. That PiS had worn itself out and was on the verge of collapse. And nothing like that happened for the next few years.” -- GENERALLY, TRZECIA DROGA HAS A CENTRIST ELECTORATE. THERE IS NO SPACE THERE TO FIGHT WITH PIŚ FOR THE MYTHICAL CONSERVATIVE ELECTORATE - PERS CONTINUES WITH BĄK IN ONE-T: “I laugh that PSL is the only party that could have gone to the elections in 2023 with a huge turnout saying that civil partnerships are okay for them, only to land at 7 percent after the European elections and start protecting its conservative electorate. This is some kind of paranoia. With PSL, there is no real conservative electorate. Even in the local elections, where the regional assembly result was good, it was decided by increased support in cities, for which Polska 2050 was mainly responsible. Generally, Trzecia Droga has a centrist electorate. There is no space there to fight with PiS for the mythical conservative electorate.” -- I WISH PSL GOOD LUCK IN REALIZING THIS DREAM, SEEING HOW MUCH PIŚ HAS TAKEN OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE - PERS TELLS BĄK: “The worst thing for PSL is that it has two wings operating within it. One is the "good old PSL," which dreams of a course to rebuild the party in the villages and capture the mythical conservative electorate. I wish them luck in realizing this dream, seeing how much PiS has taken over the countryside.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/psl-chce-lowic-mityczny-konserwatywny-elektorat-zycze-powodzenia/8t7lk9g,452ad802 -- CONSTRUCTION OF THE AIRPORT IN BARANÓW. A RESIDENT ON THE RULING COALITION'S POLITICIANS: THEY DECEIVED PEOPLE - GAZETA.PL: “Just before last year's parliamentary elections, politicians from PSL and Polska 2050 expressed their opposition to the construction of the airport in Baranów. At a press conference, where a banner with the slogan "stop CPK" was displayed, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and Dariusz Klimczak, the current Minister of Infrastructure, among others, spoke. One resident stated that the politicians of the current ruling coalition "curried favor when they needed votes." - They simply deceived people. They are stepping into PiS's shoes, without even wiping off the mud that has already stuck to them,” he said.” https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,151003,31096109,mieszkancy-baranowa-oburzeni-decyzja-tuska-ws-cpk-mam-zlamana.html -- WILL PAULINA MATYSIAK BE THE NEW MONIKA PAWŁOWSKA OF PiS? - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Jarosław Kaczyński is the beneficiary of the social movement "Yes to Development!". Paulina Matysiak has just shown that PiS has coalition potential and can attract coalition partners even from distant circles. Propagandistically, this is a significant move, even if it's just one Matysiak. PiS can now say that it is opening up to various environments and is ready to cooperate with anyone, as the deputy from the left demonstrates. And it will be difficult to deny this narrative. Matysiak has also harmed the Left, which already has many problems and is recording terrible poll results. The Razem party only reacted to Matysiak's move after the initiative was announced, which also shows how communication on the left looks.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40728591-jacek-nizinkiewicz-czy-paulina-matysiak-bedzie-nowa-monika-pawlowska-pis -- ROMEO AND JULIET FROM BARANÓW. THIS OUTBURST PUSHED MATYSIAK AND HORAŁA TOGETHER - DARIUSZ ĆWIKLAK IN ONE-T: “And what about Romeo and Juliet from Baranów? Deputy Matysiak is establishing the social movement "Yes to Development!" with Deputy Horała, allegedly behind her party's back. This political suicide ended with suspension in the party and the prospect of a party court, which should ask: "Why, according to colleague Paulina, is fighting for the interests of her constituents more effective in an association with an opposition politician than, for example, in the position of deputy minister in her own government?” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/romeo-i-julia-z-baranowa-to-pchnelo-ku-sobie-matysiak-i-horale/tk4shtq,452ad802 -- PAULINA MATYSIAK? TO THE PYRE, A PIŚ WITCH. A LESSON IN TOLERANCE FROM THE LEFT-LIBERAL SIDE - PIOTR GURSZTYN ON WPOLITYCE: “Isn't it strange that the right-wing deputy Horała is praised by his peers for his openness, while the left-wing deputy Matysiak is vilified by her own environment? This is not strange and not a coincidence. In terms of freedom, the right and the lib-left are two completely different worlds. The festival of condemning Deputy Paulina Matysiak is in full swing. Everyone who could from the left or Civic Coalition has already thundered at her. It seems no one has broken ranks, and everyone has condemned the young politician for the thought crime that is the announcement of collaboration with a PiS deputy. Attacking Matysiak is a common, collective duty.” -- CAN YOU POINT TO ANY WORDS PROHIBITED ON THE RIGHT? - GURSZTYN CONTINUES: “Liberals think in hierarchical schemes, leftists in sectarian dogmas, and the right is much more curious about the world in comparison and thus more open. This does not mean they are less stable in their views. Quite the opposite – knowing other worldviews and the pressure from them usually strengthens one's own convictions. This was evident during the previous "regime" when TV station viewership research was published. It turned out that liberal viewers only watch their own content, i.e., TVN. While right-wingers used remotes and watched the news on all stations. As is known, this did not cause them to abandon their views. Besides the uproar over Deputy Matysiak, we now also have an "affair" because someone from Konfederacja used the old Polish word Murzyn (Negro). Here's another point: can you point to any words that are prohibited on the right?” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/697074-pola-matysiak-na-stos-pis-owska-czarownice -- CZARZASTY DOES NOT WANT TO OFFEND ANYTHING THAT WOULD QUESTION HIS RIGHT TO OCCUPY THE POSITION OF MARSHAL OF THE SEJM. THIS IS PROBABLY A SENSIBLE STRATEGY, BECAUSE HIS MARSHALSHIP WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANTLY BROADER POLITICAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE LEFT - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “The meekness of the leadership, criticized by activists of the Razem party, is a sensible choice in the current situation. Włodzimierz Czarzasty probably does not want to offend anything that would question his right to occupy the position of Marshal of the Sejm. This is probably a sensible strategy, because his marshalship will create significantly broader political opportunities for the Left. Everything indicates that the work on the civil partnership bill, which Minister Katarzyna Kotula is working on, will soon be finalized. Even if, due to PSL's stance, the law will not have the expected character, its adoption will be the first success for the Left in this government.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/rzad-nie-zrealizowal-dotad-zadnych-postulatow-lewicy-czy-grozi-rozpadem-koalicji-czy-partia-razem -- THE THREAT OF AN IMMINENT SPLIT IN THE PARTY, AN EXCESS OF POOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES, MORAWIECKI'S REBELLION, AND THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE INCREASINGLY BOLDLY REACHING FOR PIŚ PEOPLE. TRULY, I'M STARTING TO SYMPATHIZE WITH JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN ONE-T. -- THE PARTY, HOWEVER, SEES THAT KACZYŃSKI IS WEAKER AND MORAWIECKI IS STRONGER. MORE AND MORE DEPUTIES ARE STARTING TO ORIENT THEMSELVES TOWARDS THE FORMER PRIME MINISTER, INCLUDING — ATTENTION! — SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF ZBIGNIEW ZIOBRO'S SUWERENNA POLSKA - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES IN ONE-T: “People from the liberal faction, whose informal leader is Mateusz Morawiecki, are also in opposition to the party leader. In the European elections, the former prime minister outmaneuvered the leader, getting his people into Brussels, which eliminated Kaczyński's chosen ones who occupied the top spots on the PiS lists. The leader is furious – he publicly declares that he will not give Morawiecki a nomination for president. This is not just rhetoric, because informally – in circles of power where PiS still has influence – such an order is also being disseminated. The party, however, sees that Kaczyński is weaker and Morawiecki is stronger. More and more deputies are starting to orient themselves towards the former prime minister, including – attention! – some of the remnants of Zbigniew Ziobro's Suwerenna Polska, who for years waged a deadly battle with Morawiecki for Kaczyński's succession.” -- THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE THE MOST SERIOUS SPLIT IN PIŚ SINCE THE PARTY'S FOUNDATION. NO, NOT BECAUSE NO ONE LIKE MORAWIECKI HAS REBELLED BEFORE – BECAUSE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SUCH REBELLIONS. THE MOMENT MATTERS - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “Of course, such a start for Morawiecki would mean a split in PiS incomparably more serious than Ardanowski's rebellion. It would probably be the most serious split in PiS since the party's foundation. No, not because no one like Morawiecki has rebelled before – because there have been several such rebellions. The moment matters. And the moment is exceptionally difficult for PiS – Kaczyński is 75 years old, has lost power, and has no great chance of regaining it, because even if he won the elections, no one wants to govern with him.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/bunt-w-pis-prezes-na-oczach-partii-staje-sie-politycznym-impotentem/gelmq3m,452ad802 -- REGARDING THE MUSEUM OF THE SECOND WORLD WAR, KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ IS STEPPING INTO PIŚ'S SHOES. BUT WHY DOES TUSK NEED THOSE SHOES? - MIROSŁAW MACIOROWSKI IN GW: “The comments and announcements from Kosiniak-Kamysz and Tusk are astonishing and outrageous. In the case of the PSL leader, it is somewhat understandable, because the European elections showed meager support for the peasant coalition with Hołownia. Today, Trzecia Droga would have trouble crossing the eight percent electoral threshold. Kosiniak-Kamysz is desperately looking for a way to change the trend. However, it is difficult to understand why Tusk does not want to clearly and unequivocally support the Museum's management.” -- WILL THE CIVIC COALITION, TOGETHER WITH KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ, AND FOLLOWING KACZYŃSKI'S EXAMPLE, ALSO ENGAGE IN THE "PROPER CONSTRUCTION" OF THE MUSEUM - MACIOROWSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “Will the Civic Coalition, together with Kosiniak-Kamysz, and following Kaczyński's example, also engage in the "proper construction" of the Museum in the name of "strengthening the cohesion of our community"? Have the words about freedom, autonomy of science, and culture, spoken at the highest volume during the election campaign, ceased to apply?” -- BY STEPPING INTO PIŚ'S SHOES, THEY ARE IMITATING ITS METHODS OF TRAMPLING ON FREEDOM OF SCIENCE AND MANIPULATING PEOPLE'S MINDS - MACIOROWSKI'S CONCLUSION IN GW: “Even if the current conflict around the Museum does not end similarly, I am already starting to fear that Kosiniak-Kamysz and Tusk have considered the "history segment" as political gold. That by stepping into PiS's shoes, they are imitating its methods of trampling on freedom of science and manipulating people's minds.” https://wyborcza.pl/alehistoria/7,121681,31100814,w-sprawie-muzeum-ii-wojny-swiatowej-kosiniak-kamysz-wchodzi.html -- THE TUSK GOVERNMENT TOLERATES, JUST AS THE MORAWIECKI GOVERNMENT TOLERATED, THAT THE BORDER GUARD "DOES NOT HEAR" SUCH REQUESTS. ONLY BECAUSE OF THIS CAN PUSHBACKS EVEN OCCUR - KLAUS BACHMANN IN GW: “The Tusk government tolerates, just as the Morawiecki government tolerated, that the Border Guard "does not hear" such requests. Only because of this can pushbacks even occur. The same applies to the buffer zone: whoever is in it is on Polish territory, is subject to Polish law, and can apply for protection. One could come to terms with this, since it is in line with the will of those surveyed in opinion polls and tolerated by EU institutions, for whom this continuity between the new and old Polish governments did not prevent the unfreezing of payments – if it were effective.” -- THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO REGAIN CONTROL OVER IMMIGRATION, BUT AT THE SAME TIME DESTROYS THE NATIONAL PARK, BORDER TOURISM, AND DEMORALIZES THE ARMY AND BORDER GUARDS - BACHMANN CONTINUES IN GW: “Border guards ensure safety, but as a result of their actions, instead of lost families, armed toughs with knives appear at the border. Activists want to help refugees, but they attract smugglers from the German criminal world. The government wants to regain control over immigration, but at the same time destroys the national park, border tourism, and demoralizes the army and border guards. If an empathetic migration policy is to be effective, it must even consider the interests of smugglers, North African warlords, and German clans profiting from transporting migrants from Białowieża to Berlin. Today, we pretend that we can eliminate smugglers completely, through restrictions, fencing off Europe from the rest of the world, increasingly harsh laws, and opening "legal immigration routes.” -- EVEN IF WE SIMPLY OPENED THE BORDER WITH BELARUS AND ACCEPTED EVERYONE THAT LUKASHENKO AND PUTIN ARE SENDING US, NO CRISIS, NEITHER HUMANITARIAN NOR CULTURAL, WOULD ARISE FROM THIS. NOBODY WOULD EVEN NOTICE IT - BACHMANN WRITES IN GW: “In Poland, almost a million foreigners work legally based on work permits, an uncounted number of EU citizens who do not need any work permits, and over a million Ukrainians who have the right to work legally based on an EU directive. This shows the scale of the problem in our backyard – minuscule compared to countries more attractive to migrants. Even if we simply opened the border with Belarus and accepted everyone that Lukashenko and Putin are sending us, no crisis, humanitarian or cultural, would arise from this. Nobody would even notice it.” -- THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT IS DOING THIS FOR THE SAME REASON AS THE PREVIOUS ONE: IT IS CREATING A SPECTACLE TO SHOW THAT IT IS IN CONTROL OF THE SITUATION AND IS APPLYING METHODS THAT ARE MOST POPULAR - BACHMANN CONTINUES: “However, the "migration pressure," as the Border Guard calls it in its communiqués, is almost zero, so there is no substantive reason to push people back into the forest and behind the wall. The current government is doing this for the same reason as the previous one: it is creating a spectacle to show that it is in control of the situation and is applying methods that are most popular among those surveyed.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31085321,efekt-zapory-i-pushbackow-szlak-bialoruski-wybiera-coraz-mniej.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Piotr Mucharski, Katarzyna Matusik-Lipiec, Martyna Majchrzak, Piotr Wójcik. SUNDAY: Paweł Szrot, Czesław Śleziak, Mirosława Kątna, Agnieszka Jucewicz, Adam Andruszkiewicz.

Łukasz Mężyk