state of play: 06/19/2024
STATE OF PLAY: Janicki on Breakthroughs and the End of the Duopoly, Chrzczonowicz on Ipsos Abortion Study: "The Rulers Have a Problem"
-- HIS OPTIMISM WAS UNWAVERING, AND HIS INSIGHTS WERE UNMATCHED. POLISH JOURNALISM HAS SUFFERED A GIGANTIC LOSS TODAY. ŁUKASZ LIPIŃSKI DIED AT THE AGE OF 51 - BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI IN GW.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31071043,zmarl-lukasz-lipinski-wybitny-dziennikarz-wicenaczelny-polityki.html
-- A GOOD AND WISE MAN. WE CANNOT COME TO TERMS WITH ŁUKASZ'S PASSING. OUR THOUGHTS ARE WITH HIS NEAREST AND DEAREST - THE EDITORIAL TEAM OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA BID FAREWELL TO ŁUKASZ LIPIŃSKI.
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2260323,1,zmarl-lukasz-lipinski-zastepca-redaktora-naczelnego-polityki-szef-politykapl-nasz-przyjaciel.read
-- I AM GRATEFUL TO ŁUKASZ FOR HIS GENEROSITY, PATIENCE, AND THE TIME OF HIS LIFE THAT HE GRACIOUSLY BESTOWED UPON ME - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “I am certainly not the only one. I am also grateful to Łukasz for the art of dignified dying that he shared with us. For reminding us of the meaning of our mundane work in the face of what can no longer be prevented. That is a lot, Łukasz, a lot. Take care, wherever you are now.”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/06/19/odszedl-od-nas-lukasz-lipinski-dziennikarz/
***
-- TUSK: RUSSIA DOESN'T NEED TO ORGANIZE ANYTHING IN POLAND. THERE IS PIS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/06/19/
-- JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY BELIEVES IT IS NOT WITHOUT A CHANCE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Jarosław Kaczyński's party believes it is not without a chance in the presidential elections. Riding the wave of enthusiasm after October 15th, many opinions emerged that the outcome of the 2025 elections was predetermined, and the PiS candidate might not even make it to the second round. This was and still is a completely mistaken belief. The results of the local and European elections showed that we are once again heading towards a situation where supporters of liberal democracy and its contesters are almost equal halves of the entire Polish electorate. And presidential elections are a special kind: one needs to win over vast numbers of supporters – not 5, but over 10 million, and the winner, even by a narrow margin, takes all.”
-- COMMENTATORS WILL ANNOUNCE FURTHER BREAKTHROUGHS IN POLISH POLITICS, THE HUNDREDTH END OF THE DUOPOLY, A GENERATIONAL CHANGE, AND EVERYTHING ELSE. THEY WILL BOARD ANOTHER BUS FULL OF DONUTS, AND EMOTIONALLY REPORT THAT THE CANDIDATE IS SHAKING HANDS AND GIVING HOPE. AND IT'S ROUGHLY ABOUT THE SAME JOURNALISTS AS ALWAYS, BECAUSE THEY ASTOUNDINGLY DO NOT ACCUMULATE EXPERIENCE, REMAINING JUNIORS OF JOURNALISM - CONTINUES THE FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “As usual in presidential elections, many contenders will appear first, there will be plenty of excitement, confetti, and an 'American-style campaign.' Some voters will be delighted by 'new faces,' commentators will announce further breakthroughs in Polish politics, the hundredth end of the duopoly, a generational change, and everything else. They will board another bus full of donuts, and emotionally report that the candidate is shaking hands and giving hope. And it's roughly about the same journalists as always, because they astoundingly do not accumulate experience, remaining juniors of journalism. And eventually, there will be a clash between two candidates, embodying the 'war of tribes' that people are supposedly tired of, 'polarized' to the extreme, probably from the hated PO-PiS bloc. Because the presidential elections will be the culmination of the struggle for the same thing: East or West? – which the voters themselves understand best.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2260191,1,bomba-w-gore.read?src=mt
-- PO'S LEADERSHIP WOULD HAVE TO RISK A LOT TO SUPPORT THE HEAD OF DIPLOMACY INSTEAD OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE CAPITAL - PROF. ANTONI DUDEK IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The European elections, in which well over 70 percent of all participants voted for candidates from the PO-PiS duopoly combined, seem to indicate that representatives of both these parties will meet in the second round of next year's presidential elections. Rafał Trzaskowski's candidacy has not yet been officially announced, and rumors of Donald Tusk and Radosław Sikorski running are circulating repeatedly. However, Tusk publicly declared in May that he had no such plans, while Sikorski suggested something different, but – looking at the survey results – the PO leadership would have to risk a lot by supporting the head of diplomacy instead of the president of the capital.”
-- TO REACH THE SECOND ROUND, THIS PiS NOVICE WILL HAVE TO DEFEAT THE CONFEDERATION CANDIDATE. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT IS KRZYSZTOF BOSAK OR SŁAWOMIR MENTZEN, I HAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT IT WILL NOT BE SO SIMPLE - CONTINUES PROF. DUDEK: “However, repeating the scenario from 2015 seems much more difficult. Firstly, for demographic reasons: young Poles, as the last three elections have clearly shown, are exceptionally reluctant to vote for PiS. Secondly, after ten years of a PiS president, many wavering voters will prefer to see someone of a different political orientation in the presidential palace. Thirdly, and finally, to reach the second round, this PiS novice will have to defeat the Confederation candidate. Regardless of whether it is Krzysztof Bosak or Sławomir Mentzen, I have the impression that it will not be so simple.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2260197,1,prezydencka-ruletka.read
-- PIS CHAIRMAN JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI IS KNOCKING DOWN HIS OWN PAWNS - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “Chairman Jarosław Kaczyński has already set up the game boards for the 'President of the Republic of Poland' race. For now, however, he is limited to eliminating pawns: Beata Szydło, Mateusz Morawiecki, or Marek Magierowski.”
-- AFTER EIGHT YEARS OF PiS RULE, IT IS DIFFICULT TO GATHER 50 PERCENT PLUS 1 PERCENT OF VOTES FOR THE VISION OF THE WORLD PROMOTED FROM NOWOGRODZKA STREET. EVEN MORE SO BECAUSE THE CONFEDERATION CANDIDATE WILL STAND BEHIND HIM - CONTINUES DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “So, the 'Andrzej Duda bis' project remains: young, but experienced, available, obedient. There are at least several such gentlemen in the party, so the chairman has a choice: Tobiasz Bocheński, Waldemar Buda, or one of the young and dynamic local government officials – city presidents. Could such a sequel to Andrzej Duda's hit victory succeed? It would be very difficult; after eight years of PiS rule, it is hard to gather 50 percent plus 1 percent of votes for the vision of the world promoted from Nowogrodzka Street. Especially since the Confederation candidate – Sławomir Mentzen or Krzysztof Bosak – will stand behind him, and the effect of a perfectly fitting suit might spoil things for PiS.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40655351-zuzanna-dabrowska-prezes-pis-jaroslaw-kaczynski-zbija-wlasne-pionki
-- AND HOW DOES THE INTELLIGENT MAN FROM WROCŁAW SEE IT, THE SON OF THE HERO OF FIGHTING SOLIDARITY, PERSECUTED BY THE COMMUNIST REGIME, KORNEL MORAWIECKI? DOES THE SPOT RELEASED BY HIS OWN PARTY EVOKE ANY FEELINGS IN HIM? - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “No. There is no consent for that. This spot, like other attacks on immigrants, is nothing more than conscious xenophobia. It's trading in hatred towards other people. What's more, building social attitudes and one's own agency in politics on it. The worst version of populism. Disgusting, obvious to all decent people. I am not the only one who sees it this way. And how does the intelligent man from Wrocław see it, the son of the hero of Fighting Solidarity, persecuted by the communist regime, Kornel Morawiecki? Does the spot released by his own party evoke any feelings in him? And what kind?”
-- WHO IS MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI IN THE END? IS HE A SHARP ANALYST OF THE EUROPEAN AND POLISH ECONOMY, AWARE THAT DUE TO DEMOGRAPHIC COLLAPSE, WE CANNOT DO WITHOUT LABOR IMPORTS FROM OUTSIDE EUROPE? OR IS HE A FEEBLE BUREAUCRAT VOUCHING FOR HIS PARTY'S PROMOTION OF RACISM AND XENOPHOBIA? - CONTINUES CHRABOTA IN RZ: “Who is Mateusz Morawiecki in the end? Is he a sharp analyst of the European and Polish economy, aware that due to demographic collapse, we cannot do without labor imports from outside Europe? Or is he a feeble bureaucrat vouching for his party's promotion of racism and xenophobia? How can one combine the two? How can one reconcile intellectual aspirations with tolerance for political savagery? I don't know. I don't understand. I don't accept it. I know that politics is mud. But does one have to enjoy wading in it up to their knees? Mr. Mateusz Morawiecki. Who are you, and who are you pretending to be? Please decide.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40654461-boguslaw-chrabota-co-pan-mysli-o-spocie-pis-panie-morawiecki
-- ACTUALLY, THE ELECTORAL MOBILIZATION OF THE YOUNGEST IN 2023 WAS DRIVEN BY SPECIFIC EXPECTATIONS, NOT JUST THE DESIRE TO CHANGE THE PARTY IN POWER. THE COALITION HAS NOT YET FULFILLED THESE EXPECTATIONS - MAGDALENA CHRZCZONOWICZ ON THE IPSOS SURVEY FOR OKO PRESS REGARDING ABORTION: “As expected, the youngest respondents are the most disappointed – the 18-29 age group. And significantly more so than the general population, by as much as 51 percent. The disappointment decreases with age. This could be a signal that the electoral mobilization of the youngest in 2023 was indeed driven by specific expectations, not just the desire to change the party in power. The coalition has not yet fulfilled these expectations.”
-- WOMEN UP TO THE AGE OF 40 ARE EVEN MORE DISAPPOINTED - CONTINUES CHRZCZONOWICZ ON THE IPSOS SURVEY FOR OKO PRESS: “Women up to the age of 40 are even more disappointed. In the group of women aged 18-39, as many as 57 percent chose the first answer. This confirms that young women are the most progressive. Progressive, but also most interested in changing the law – an almost total ban on abortion is a huge threat precisely to them.”
-- THIS MEANS THE RULERS HAVE A PROBLEM - CONTINUES CHRZCZONOWICZ IN OKO PRESS: “We also calculated what percentage of voters from the entire October 15th Coalition (KO, TD, Lewica) chose the first answer, i.e., disappointment – that's as much as 44 percent. The second answer (The coalition is working as it should, as conditions do not allow for more) – 37 percent. And this means that the rulers have a problem.”
https://oko.press/koalicja-15-pazdziernika-naprawde-rozczarowala-w-kwestii-aborcji-sprawdzilismy-sondaz-ipsos
-- THERE WILL BE NO OTHER GOVERNMENT, THERE WILL BE NO OTHER SEJM. THE EMOTIONS ARE OVER, THANK YOU VERY MUCH - SZYMON HOŁOWNIA IN A CONVERSATION WITH MICHAŁ WODZIŃSKI, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF FAKT: “Cooperation, discussions, and co-operation are returning. If the coalition leaders do not meet every week and agree on what needs to be done, nothing will get done. We have 3.5 years to work. This Sejm was elected on October 15th. There will be no other government, there will be no other Sejm. The emotions are over, thank you very much. It is clear who achieved what result, and now we have to go and do the work.”
-- IN MY OPINION, FLAWED - HOŁOWNIA ON TRZASKOWSKI'S IDEA REGARDING CROSSES: “In my opinion, flawed. I have a very simple policy in my own house. I don't take crosses down from the walls, but I also don't hang them on the walls. If someone cares about expressing something this way or having a symbol important to their values close to them, it doesn't bother me.”
-- FOR THESE FEW MONTHS, I WILL HAVE TO LISTEN TO MYSELF TO SEE IF THIS IS INDEED THE MISSION I WOULD LIKE TO PURSUE, WHICH, INCIDENTALLY, I HAVE ALREADY PURSUED ONCE - CONTINUES HOŁOWNIA IN FAKT: “First, whether I will run for president or not. I will make a decision on this matter in the autumn. For these few months, I will have to listen to myself to see if this is indeed the mission I would like to pursue, which, incidentally, I have already pursued once. Second, one must answer the question of Poland's condition. Because I have a feeling that life will write very different scenarios. Both in terms of the international situation, security, the economy, and the challenges that will lie ahead. Decisions must be made when the time for decisions comes, and one must be in shape for the competition, not a year before the competition. Exactly for the Olympics, one needs to be in peak form. The elections are next year.”
-- I FEAR THAT ANOTHER PRESIDENT FROM CIVIC PLATFORM, SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH A PRIME MINISTER FROM CIVIC PLATFORM, MEANS THEN PERHAPS THE NEXT PRESIDENT AND PRIME MINISTER FROM PIS - SAYS HOŁOWNIA TO WODZIŃSKI IN FAKT: “If I were to run there as a Third Way candidate, it would require very serious consideration. I have already seen many things on the Polish political scene, and I fear that another president from Civic Platform, simultaneously with a prime minister from Civic Platform, means then perhaps the next president and prime minister from PiS, who will not be from our democratic camp.”
-- I AM NEITHER PETRU, NOR KUKIZ, NOR PALIKOT. I HAVE MY OWN PATH AND I FOLLOW IT CONSISTENTLY, AND MANY PEOPLE RECOGNIZE THAT IT MAKES SENSE - CONTINUES HOŁOWNIA WITH WODZIŃSKI: “I am neither Petru, nor Kukiz, nor Palikot. I have my own path and I follow it consistently, and many people recognize that it makes sense. Today I support Donald Tusk in the good things he is doing for Poland, but I am sure that in a setup where there is only PiS or Civic Platform, a significant portion of Poles will not find themselves. They will not go to the polls, and we will not have the legitimacy of democracy, and consequently stable governments, which we desperately need today.”
https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/pierwszy-wywiad-holowni-po-eurowyborach-tego-nie-moze-przebolec-masakra/cmhcg68
-- BIRTHDAYS: Zygmunt Frankiewicz.
live
41 min
33 min
Kierwiński: Interior Ministry and Government Protection Bureau Had No Information About Threats from Any SOP Officer
62 min
„Even the last few dozen hours show that things weren’t going well there.” — Kierwiński on the SOP Audit
68 min
„I couldn't dismiss him because it requires the president's consent, and that wasn't given.” — Kierwiński on the suspension of the Head of the State Protection Service
71 min
„There is no institution elected by more people in free elections than the Sejm.” — Siwiec Responds to Cenckiewicz
75 min
Siwiec: If Czarzasty Didn't Want to Be Vetted, Where Did the Unambiguous and Swift Statement from the Services' Spokesperson Come From?
92 min
Why Didn't Czarzasty Submit His Security Clearance in 2023? Siwiec: He Wasn't the Most Diligent Member of the Special Services Committee, He Was More Concerned with His Party
92 min
„The Matter Has a Political Character.” — Leśkiewicz on Andruszkiewicz
99 min
Leśkiewicz: Siwiec's Letter is Full of Errors. Did Nawrocki Work at the Grand Hotel at 15?
2 hours
Cenckiewicz's Doubts Deserve Government Explanation, Says Siwiec on SAFE Program
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