-- SAWICKI: I SEE A POSSIBILITY THAT KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ COULD BECOME PRIME MINISTER - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/06/14/ -- VOTERS OF KO AND PIS REMAIN VERY STRONGLY IN SUPPORT OF UKRAINE - WITOLD GŁOWACKI ON IPSOS SURVEY FOR OKO.PRESS: “The first thing that catches the eye is the fact that the opinions of Law and Justice (PiS) and Civic Coalition (KO) voters regarding Western support for Ukraine are very similar – completely contrary to the main axis of polarization on the Polish political scene. Both electorates continue to unequivocally (PiS – 77 percent, KO – 74 percent) support unconditional aid to Ukraine. However, in both groups, there has been a slight increase in the percentage of people (from 6 to 12 percent in PiS, and from 11 to 15 percent in KO) who believe it is time for a peace agreement, even one unfavorable to Ukraine. In both electorates, the percentage of people with no clear opinion on this matter has also slightly increased. While in 2022 it was 3 percent each, now it is 10 percent in the KO electorate and 11 percent in the PiS electorate.” -- WE OBSERVE A SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER WEAKENING OF SUPPORT FOR UNCONDITIONAL SUPPORT OF UKRAINE AMONG VOTERS OF THE TWO SMALLER FORMATIONS OF THE RULING COALITION - GŁOWACKI FURTHER IN OKO: “While in 2022 as many as 86 percent of Left voters and 85 percent of Poland 2050 voters and 80 percent of PSL voters (Third Way did not yet exist) supported unconditional aid to Ukraine, today only 65 percent of Left voters and 58 percent of Third Way voters hold the same opinion. This represents a drop of over 20 percentage points – which is certainly significant.” https://oko.press/wyborcy-ko-i-pis-nadal-bardzo-mocno-za-wspieraniem-ukrainy-ale-widac-zmiany-sondaz -- IF VON DER LEYEN'S CANDIDACY FALLS THROUGH, RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI OR EVEN DONALD TUSK, WHO HAS A REPUTATION IN EUROPE AS SOMEONE WHO SAVED LIBERAL DEMOCRACY, COULD RE-ENTER THE GAME - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “If the German woman's candidacy is vetoed, the whole game can be reset. And then, for example, the position of High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy for Sikorski would be possible. The proposal for Tusk himself to take the position of President of the European Commission, the most prestigious position in the Union, could also be revived. His Civic Coalition's victory in the European elections in Poland, the best percentage result among those achieved in the EU by mainstream parties, and his reputation as the one who saved liberal democracy in Poland and the entire Union give him a strong mandate to fight for the highest stakes.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40621691-michal-szuldrzynski-tusk-i-sikorski-w-grze-o-najwyzsze-stanowiska-w-ue-jesli-ktos-wywroci-stolik -- LET THEM FIGHT OVER THE ROTATING SEJM MARSHAL. THE 'AWS-IZATION' OF TUSK'S COALITION IS SELF-INFLICTED - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “The Third Way is already quarreling internally, and a split between PSL and Poland 2050 may occur. Joanna Mucha, among others, is speaking about this publicly. This serves no purpose and doesn't advance either formation, it only strengthens PiS, which gains confirmation of the infighting within the ruling camp. The Left is also making threats, with Robert Biedroń announcing a meeting of the October 15th coalition leaders regarding new priorities. And Adrian Zandberg announces he will no longer bite his tongue for the sake of the coalition. This is exactly what PiS wants. Let them also fight over the rotating Sejm Marshal. The 'AWS-ization' of Tusk's coalition is self-inflicted.” -- KO GAINED THANKS TO THIRD WAY VOTES, AND PARTIALLY THE LEFT AS WELL. CANNIBALIZING ONE'S OWN VOTERS AND WEAKENING PARTNERS IS NOT A GOOD TACTIC - NIZINKIEWICZ FURTHER IN RZ: “KO gained thanks to Third Way votes, and partially the Left as well. Cannibalizing one's own voters and weakening partners is not a good tactic. Third Way was supposed to gain new voters, and partially win back voters from KO and PiS. It seems they have forgotten this. Every election has its own rules. Applying current support levels and mandate distribution to parliamentary elections is psychological media terror that junior partners of KO are succumbing to. When negative messaging starts to overshadow evidence of cooperation and effectiveness, the October 15th coalition will not last long together.” -- TUSK'S PARTY CANNOT GOVERN ALONE - NIZINKIEWICZ'S CONCLUSION: “Mutual feuds will bleed the coalition dry before 2027. Despite KO's victory, the election result should be a warning signal for Tusk's government. His party cannot govern alone.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40621531-podzialy-w-trzeciej-drodze-i-na-lewicy-nowa-taktyka-pis-ma-zmobilizowac-wyborcow -- KO IS ALSO A HOSTAGE TO THE SMALLER PARTIES BECAUSE IT CANNOT GOVERN WITHOUT THEM. IN THIS STANDOFF, MINOR PARTNERS, AWARE OF THEIR DECLINING POLLS, MAY START TO PLAY MORE DECISIVELY FOR THEMSELVES - MAŁGORZATA GAŁCZYŃSKA IN ONEWET: “However, it is obvious that KO is also a hostage to the smaller parties, because it cannot govern without them. In this standoff, minor partners, aware of their declining poll numbers, may start to play more decisively for themselves, paying less attention to the interests of the government they are part of. An example of such a tactic, not the first one for that matter, was seen on Thursday in the Sejm, where there was a sharp difference of opinion between TD and KO on one side, and the Left on the other, concerning shopping Sundays. TD wants their reintroduction – twice a month, for higher wages – and KO supports the idea. The Left says a firm 'no,' arguing that its vital interest is to care for the welfare of employees.” https://onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/idzie-sprawdzian-dla-koalicji-rzadzacej-pis-moze-hukiem-wrocic-do-wladzy/v8mwpe3,79cfc278 -- SZYDŁO IS OUT OF THE GAME - SE QUOTES PIS POLITICIANS: “– Political science and sociological research are underway to identify a candidate. Depending on the situation and circumstances, various individuals are being considered. Specialists are working on this. We will announce the candidate in late autumn or early winter – informs a former Minister of Education. From another politician in the PiS leadership, we hear that initial conclusions can be drawn from the European Parliament elections. – Beata Szydło has essentially fallen out of the running after achieving a result almost twice as poor as five years ago. On the other hand, Tobiasz Bocheński and Waldemar Buda showed themselves in an excellent light – says our source.” https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/prezes-szuka-kandydata-na-prezydenta-aa-48Gf-GbGk-k6CJ.html -- SHARP DISPUTE IN PIS. BEATA SZYDŁO HAS STOOD UP TO JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI - KAMILA BARANOWSKA AND JAKUB SZCZEPAŃSKI IN INTERIA: “Jarosław Kaczyński wants MP Łukasz Kmita to become the Marshal of the Małopolska Voivodeship. He believes that his election is being blocked by Beata Szydło's people. A strong exchange of words between the party leader and the former prime minister reportedly took place recently on this matter. (...) The problem is that the PiS leader is taking the situation very personally. In fact, he sees the problem as a rebellion against his own decisions. – This is precisely the position he conveyed to Beata Szydło. He allegedly said that he expects the matter to be definitively resolved on Monday and that she will handle it – reports our source from Nowogrodzka Street. According to Interia's information, Jarosław Kaczyński took the matter so seriously that he decided to have a one-on-one conversation with Beata Szydło.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/tylko-w-interii/news-ostry-spor-w-pis-beata-szydlo-postawila-sie-jaroslawowi-kacz,nId,7572337 -- DEMOCRATIC PARTIES ARE INCREASINGLY RELYING ON THE VOTES OF GENERATIONS THAT ARE PASSING AWAY - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GW: “After the European elections, emotions are mixed. PO triumphs. PiS holds strong. Minor coalition partners are weakening. Konfederacja is growing. Voter turnout is falling. Young democrats are choosing abstention. Democratic parties are increasingly feeding on the votes of generations that are passing away.” -- WE DID NOT IMAGINE SOCIETY'S REACTION TO THE PROCESS OF DEMOCRATIZATION LIKE THIS, WHEN LAST OCTOBER YOUNG PEOPLE VOTED MASSIVELY FOR THE FIRST TIME AND STOOD IN QUEUES LATE AT NIGHT – ŻAKOWSKI FURTHER IN GW: “We did not imagine society’s reaction to the process of democratization like this, when last October young people voted massively for the first time and stood in queues late at night. Where have they gone with their enthusiasm and determination? And why was their presence so dramatically absent this time, not only at the polling stations but also at Tusk's pre-election rally, even though a year ago they showed up in quite large numbers at the March of a Million Hearts?” -- DEMOCRATS CARELESSLY MADE ELECTION PROMISES AS IF THEY HAD MAGIC WANDS IN THEIR BACKPACKS – ŻAKOWSKI WRITES FURTHER IN GW: “Of course, young people are more attached to election promises, and democrats have managed to deliver few of them, apart from the most important one, which was to remove PiS from power. Everyone sees the difficulties the coalition is struggling with. But no one can be surprised by them. After all, it was known that PiS had booby-trapped the state. And democrats carelessly made election promises as if they had magic wands in their backpacks, or as if Duda, Manowska, Przyłębska, etc., did not exist. Those less experienced by life and politics experience such disappointments more strongly and are quicker to lose trust when someone lets them down.” -- POLITICS WITHOUT DREAMS WILL LEAD FEW TO THE POLLS – ŻAKOWSKI'S CONCLUSION: “Meanwhile, Tusk gets a rash at the word 'vision,' and most democrats stiffen and sweat profusely when the topic becomes anything beyond day-to-day management, defending the status quo, or settling scores. Retirees might be satisfied with such a penny-pinching approach. But it repels the young. Politics without dreams will lead few to the polls. If you want them to follow you – learn to dream and share your dreams.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31053779,upadek-lewicy-powinien-martwic-liberalow.html -- THE LEFT FALLING BELOW THE ELECTION THRESHOLD MEANS THE RETURN OF JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI TO POWER. THIS TIME IN COALITION WITH KONFEDERACJA – ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW: “I don't know, however, if a change of leaders is necessary. Czarzasty is widely praised among MPs, he maintains good relations with all coalition partners, and he unites the left-wing family. Perhaps he should announce two decisions: that one of the Left's female parliamentarians, such as Wanda Nowicka, a dedicated activist for women's rights, will become the Sejm Marshal after Szymon Hołownia, and then nominate a strong female candidate for President of Poland. One thing is certain: without a strong Left, which will be part of the Polish parliament, it is impossible to build a democratic rule of law state. The Left falling below the election threshold means the return of Jarosław Kaczyński to power. This time in coalition with Konfederacja.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31053779,upadek-lewicy-powinien-martwic-liberalow.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Jarosław Obremski, Katarzyna Ramotowska, Karol Gac, Joanna Augustynowska.