state of play: 06/13/2024

STATE OF PLAY: A Peasant at Naszkowska's: Maybe Pawlak Should Return? Ipsos for Oko: Only Half of Third Way and Left Voters Satisfied with Tusk's Government, Skrzydłowska: Smiling Poland Could Have the Face of Mentzen Gazing Over a Pint of Beer

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SIX MONTHS OF TUSK'S GOVERNMENT. Today marks 6 months since December 13th. -- POGROMIST SENTIMENTS TOWARDS MIGRANTS AT THE BORDER - PROF. WOJCIECH SADURSKI IN GW: “Previously marginal para-fascist opinions are entering the mainstream, and the topic of discussion is not 'whether' but 'how' to shoot refugees. 'No harm comes to those who want it' – we increasingly hear about the suffering and death of people on the road. The foreign bandit who murdered a Polish soldier becomes emblematic of all refugees 'storming' the Polish border. Their desperate attempt to escape war and hunger becomes 'aggression,' and the situation is now universally defined as 'war.' What has happened to us?” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31054118,jak-uchodzcy-stali-sie-nachodzcami-czyli-nastroje-pogromowe.html -- NOW THE CONGRESS, WHICH WAS SCHEDULED FOR NEXT YEAR, MUST BE ACCELERATED AND A NEW PRESIDENT ELECTED. PERHAPS WŁADEK PAWLAK WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER? - A PEASANT FROM MAZOVIA CITED BY KRYSTYNA NASZKOWSKA IN GW: “– People are really furious! – says an activist from Mazovia to me. – The leadership will have to be held accountable, not just the president, but also his court, which completely isolated him from the grassroots. Kosiniak is a decent president and well-liked, but ultimately it's his fault that we performed so poorly. We warned that we should part ways with Hołownia, but he didn't listen. Now the congress, which was scheduled for next year, must be accelerated and a new president elected. Whom? – I ask. – Maybe Władek Pawlak would have been better? – We'll see, but we here in Mazovia think Pawlak would be good. He's wise, an experienced politician, he knows what's good for us and what harms the PSL. The situation is dangerous because more and more people are disillusioned with the Party. We have to save ourselves, because if we go to parliament together again, it might turn out that we won't cross the 8% threshold.” -- UNDOUBTEDLY, THE ELECTIONS WEAKENED BOTH KOSINIAK AND HOŁOWNIA. THEY SHOWED THAT THE EMPEROR MAY NOT BE NAKED, BUT HE IS CERTAINLY SCANTILY CLAD - NASZKOWSKA FURTHER IN GW: “It is obvious that without the MPs of the Third Way, Tusk's government would not exist. Tusk, Kosiniak, and Hołownia all know this. Therefore, at the government level, little is likely to change. However, the elections undoubtedly weakened both Kosiniak and Hołownia. They showed that the emperor may not be naked, but he is certainly scantily clad.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31055698,to-wszystko-przez-wladka-i-jego-upor-by-nie-isc-z-po-rozgoryczenie.html -- TUSK PROMISED TO END THE POLISH-POLISH WAR THE DAY AFTER THE ELECTIONS. BUT HIS POSTS ON X SHOW SOMETHING ENTIRELY DIFFERENT - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Donald Tusk and his activity on X – national community or national polarization? Prime Minister Tusk promised to end the Polish-Polish war the day after the elections. But his posts on X show something entirely different. What is the balance of national reconciliation six months after the government's inauguration?” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40612501-michal-szuldrzynski-donald-tusk-i-jego-aktywnosc-na-x-narodowa-wspolnota-czy-narodowa-polaryzacja -- ONLY HALF OF THE THIRD WAY AND LEFT VOTERS ARE SATISFIED WITH TUSK'S GOVERNMENT - IPSOS FOR OKO.PRESS DESCRIBES MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI: “Donald Tusk's government is increasingly becoming a cabinet of Civic Coalition and its voters, and less and less a government of the remaining two parties forming the parliamentary majority. Only KO voters feel satisfaction with the government's actions in a vast majority; for the Third Way, less than half of respondents feel the same, and for the Left, only slightly more than half.” -- THE PRIME MINISTER IS BEING PORTRAYED BY HIS ENTOURAGE AS A PERSON WHO EFFECTIVELY GOVERNS THE PARTY AND THE STATE SINGLE-HANDEDLY - DANIELEWSKI FURTHER IN OKO: “The Prime Minister is being portrayed by his entourage as a person who, in practice, governs the party and the state single-handedly. He leads the fight against populism throughout the European Union, fights against Russia, Belarus, PiS, thieves, migrants, and last but not least, against coalition partners who, unfortunately, are not as perfect as he is.” -- EITHER THEY WILL SHOW THEIR VOTERS THAT THEY CAN ALSO IMPLEMENT THEIR OWN POLICIES AND DEMANDS IN GOVERNMENT, OR MARGINALIZATION AWAITS THEM IN THE LONG TERM - WRITES DANIELEWSKI: “The conclusion from these numbers for both smaller coalition partners is banal: either they will show their voters that they can also implement their own policies and demands in government, or marginalization and further drops in polls await them in the long term. Some of their voters will simply switch their vote to KO, following the principle that has worked very well in politics and was formulated long ago in a detergent commercial: if there's no difference, why pay more. Others will abstain from voting.” -- GOOD MOODS AMONG PiS AND CONFEDERATION VOTERS - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI WRITES FURTHER ABOUT THE IPSOS SURVEY IN OKO: “The sentiments of voters from both opposition parties are quite similar. Although more Confederation voters (85%) express satisfaction with their elected officials' actions than PiS voters (75%), in the group of Jarosław Kaczyński's party supporters, 42% of respondents feel full satisfaction with Law and Justice's actions, while for the Confederation, this figure is only 28%.” https://oko.press/sondaz-klopot-w-koalicji-wyborcy-trzeciej-drogi-i-lewicy-rozczarowani -- A RUMOR BEGAN CIRCULATING IN THE CORRIDORS SEVERAL DAYS AGO THAT DONALD TUSK HIMSELF MIGHT JOIN THE RACE FOR THE POSITION OF EC PRESIDENT - KAMIL DZIUBKA IN ONET: “The Prime Minister is starting a game for important positions for Poland in Brussels. According to Onet's information, even the position of Vice-President of the European Commission for our country is being considered. Interestingly, a rumor began circulating in the corridors a few days ago that Donald Tusk himself might join the race for the position of EC President, but our sources close to him categorically deny this. It is also unknown whether Radosław Sikorski will compete for a position in the commission, as there is increasingly loud talk in the ruling camp about his presidential ambitions.” -- AS WE HEAR, THE OPTION OF SOME FORM OF PRIMARY ELECTIONS IS NOT RULED OUT AT THE MOMENT - DZIUBKA FURTHER IN ONET: “As we hear, the option of some form of primary elections is not ruled out at the moment. Should Sikorski decide to pursue his presidential ambitions and give up the fight for a seat in the European Commission, the question remains about other candidates for the EC.” -- AND HERE THE NAME OF PIOTR SERAFIN APPEARS - DZIUBKA FURTHER IN ONET: “And here the name of Piotr Serafin appears, who served as head of the cabinet of the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, from 2014-2019. Previously, from 2012-2014, he held the position of Secretary of State for European Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and from 1999 to 2010 he worked at the Office of the Committee for European Integration.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/donald-tusk-rozpoczyna-wielka-unijna-gre-w-tle-sensacyjny-scenariusz/rjwss0p,79cfc278 -- ZANDBERG: I WILL NO LONGER BITE MY TONGUE FOR THE GOOD OF THE COALITION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/06/13 -- I SAW TUSK'S EMOTION AND HIS DELIGHT AT THE VICTORY UP CLOSE. AS IT TURNED OUT TODAY, A VERY SMALL, NOT TO SAY—NEGLIGIBLE ONE. I WONDER HOW LONG THEY WILL CELEBRATE, AND WHEN THEY WILL START WORRYING ABOUT THE DECLINING SUPPORT AMONG THE YOUNG - BART STASZEWSKI IN A CONVERSATION WITH DAWID DUDKO IN ONET: “Today I feel very pissed off. As you remember, Dawid, I've been working as a documentarian the whole time. I was with a camera at the Coalition's election night event and saw Tusk's emotion and his delight at the victory up close. As it turned out today, a very small, not to say—negligible one. I wonder how long they will celebrate, and when they will start worrying about the declining support among the young.” -- LEFT-WING POLITICIANS ARE DECIDING TO GO TO BRUSSELS WHEN THE MOST IMPORTANT DEMANDS THEY RAN ON HAVE NOT ONLY NOT BEEN REALIZED, BUT HAVE NOT EVEN REACHED THE PODIUM - STASZEWSKI FURTHER WITH DUDKO: “Why didn't many openly gay people run on the Left's lists, but on Civic Coalition's? Maybe they fled because this ship is sinking. Another matter is that Left-wing politicians are deciding to go to Brussels when the most important demands they ran on have not only not been realized, but have not even reached the parliamentary podium.” https://www.onet.pl/kultura/onetkultura/bart-staszewski-moze-po-tych-wyborach-trzeba-znowu-wyjsc-na-ulice-wywiad/jn0r7qv,681c1dfa -- THE GAME FOR PARTNERSHIP UNIONS. SCHRÖDINGER'S AGREEMENT, A LITANY OF PROMISES, AND MISSED OPPORTUNITIES - ANTON AMBROZIAK IN OKO.PRESS: “Today, PSL politicians, who are not in favor of partnership unions, do not have the punitive hand of voters over them. And although the Third Way received a yellow card in the European elections, it is difficult to determine whether this is related to blocking equality projects and disappointment with the conservative course on the rights of women and LGBT people. Perhaps it fits into broader socio-political processes: the exhaustion of the Hołownia and Kosiniak-Kamysz project formula, a decline in voter mobilization, and the gradual absorption of smaller coalition partners by Tusk's grouping.” -- PERHAPS THIS IS THE LAST SEASON OF PARADING IN WHICH THEY CAN COUNT ON MODEST APPLAUSE - AMBROZIAK FURTHER IN OKO: “We in Poland are left with an infertile discussion about partnership unions, which few believe in and which (almost) no one will be happy about. And Left-wing politicians travel to equality marches, promising the LGBT+ community that in a few moments, their rights will be at least partially respected in Poland. And perhaps this is the last season of parading in which they can count on modest applause.” https://oko.press/gra-o-zwiazki-partnerskie-litania-obietnic-niewykorzystane-szanse -- TUSK ALSO BENEFITS FROM A WEAK LEFT. AND THUS, THE ANGER OF LEFT-WING VOTERS HOLDING THEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF EQUALITY IN POLAND - KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “However, Tusk also benefits from a weak Left. And thus, the anger of Left-wing voters holding them responsible for the lack of equality in Poland. If he were truly determined, he would have settled the partnership union bill with the coalition partners. After all, one could count how many PSL members would have to get stuck in an elevator during the vote for the bill to pass. Arguments for counting correctly would certainly be found. The bill could also be put to a vote, even if it were to fail – it would be a declaration of will. However, Tusk is clearly not determined. The party that has such an electorate, namely the Left, must therefore contend with the disappointment of the electorate for whom equality is one of the most important issues. It does not cease its efforts, but lacking support, it still 'almost finalizes' its work.” -- POLAND DOES NOT HAVE THE CLIMATE ONE MIGHT EXPECT, HEARING THE FIERY SPEECHES DURING LAST YEAR'S JUNE 4TH OR MILLION HEARTS MARCHES. POLAND IS NOT SMILING - SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN FURTHER IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Poland does not have the climate one might expect, hearing the fiery speeches during last year's June 4th or Million Hearts marches. Poland is not smiling. This is partly explained by the circumstances of 'pre-war times,' but it does not justify everything. Because the main motivation of politicians is the next elections, and they subordinate their priorities to them. And equality and many other social issues, as it turns out, contrary to earlier announcements, are not among them.” -- DISILLUSIONMENT AND DISAPPOINTMENT WITH THE MAIN FORCES CAUSE PEOPLE TO WITHDRAW OR TURN TO OUTSIDERS. SUCH AS CONFEDERATION - CONCLUSION BY SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KL: “Disillusionment and disappointment with the main forces cause people to withdraw or turn to outsiders. Such as Confederation, which, unlike the Left, achieved success in the recent elections. Of course, it is not predetermined that this is a lasting success, and certainly not that the electoral proportions for parliament would look like this. However, it is a sign that citizens are tempted by offers from outside the disappointing mainstream. And Confederation also promises freedom, although it understands it differently than the Left, KO, or the Third Way.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/06/13/skrzydlowska-kalukin-rownosc-nie-jest-wewnetrzna-sprawa-lewicy/ -- LEFTISTS MORE CONVINCINGLY DEFEND THE LIBERAL ECONOMIC PROPOSALS OF COALITION PARTNERS THAN THEIR OWN, AS IF THE LEFTIST ONES WERE MERELY STUCK ON THEM AND THEY HAD TO TALK ABOUT THEM OUT OF OBLIGATION - PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Leftists more convincingly defend the liberal economic proposals of their coalition partners than their own, as if the leftist ones were merely attached to them and they had to talk about them out of obligation. When discussing pro-social slogans, they often sound like they are reciting a poem in Polish class. 'Well, you learned that very nicely, Areczek, congratulations, a strong C.' This is partly why Confederation is winning against the Left. The 'Konfiarze' spout almost unbelievable nonsense, but they are convinced of it, these are their proposals, they believe in them, you can see it. They are not ashamed of them, and even compromising gaffes do not spoil their good mood.” -- POLISH LEFTISTS STEM FROM LIBERAL CIRCLES. LIBERALS ARE THEIR NATURAL ENVIRONMENT, BOTH SOCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL - WÓJCIK FURTHER IN KRYTYKA: “Polish leftists stem from liberal circles. Liberals are their natural environment, both social and professional. They are regularly surrounded by liberals, so they speak their language and adapt their message to a level acceptable to them. Left-wing commentators appear in friendly liberal media, Left-wing politicians cooperate closely with liberal politicians, and the engaged electorate of the Left constantly encounters liberals at work. Few people like to feel rejected by the majority or be labeled a weirdo/outsider, so they meekly pacify themselves. They deliberately blunt parts of their own political narrative to fit into the dominant liberal canon.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/dlaczego-lewica-sie-wstydzi/ -- THE LEFT IS LOSING ITS BASTIONS - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “The Left is losing its bastions. On Sunday, the most astonishing thing was what happened in the Silesian Voivodeship. In October, it gave the Left two senators and four MPs. In the Sosnowiec constituency, it had the best result in the country, 21.6%. In Silesia, it has its presidential cities: Częstochowa, Będzin, Dąbrowa Górnicza. In pre-election calculations, it seemed that Silesia, after Warsaw and Greater Poland, would be the third sure district – with the understanding that within the coalition's division of seats on the lists, it fell to Razem (the Left).” -- IT IS POSSIBLE TO RISK THE THESIS THAT JOINT GOVERNMENT WITH CIVIC COALITION AND THE LACK OF MAJOR SUCCESSES IN PROMOTING THEIR OWN DEMANDS ARE A PROBLEM FOR THE LEFT - MAJMUREK FURTHER IN KP: “Given the overall result of the Left, one can risk the thesis that joint government with Civic Coalition and the lack of major successes in promoting their own demands are a problem for the Left. But the results also do not show that Razem can count on any electoral bonus for the decision not to enter the government and position themselves as its reviewer.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/anatomia-kleski-dlaczego-lewica-zostala-zdemolowana-w-eurowyborach/ -- MINISTER MARCIN MASTALEREK (MMM?) REVEALED THAT HE IS CONFLICT-FREE: “– I am a conflict-free person, everyone knows me, I try to cooperate with everyone – assured the presidential minister.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/zapowiedz-zmian-w-kancelarii-prezydenta-moge-powiedziec-tylko-tyle/x6567q7,79cfc278 -- 22 YEARS AGO, Law and Justice was registered. -- 20 YEARS AGO, the first elections to the European Parliament were held in Poland, won by Civic Platform. -- 10 YEARS AGO, the wiretapping scandal broke out. Recordings were made from July 2013 to June 2014 in several Warsaw restaurants, and among the dozens of people wiretapped were incumbent and former ministers, businessmen, and presidents of the NBP and NIK. -- BIRTHDAYS: Janusz Lewandowski, Antoni Szymański, Andrzej Morozowski (turns 67).

Łukasz Mężyk