-- PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ: IF THESE WERE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, PIS AND KONFEDERACJA WOULD FORM A GOVERNMENT - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/06/12/ -- PYRRHIC VICTORY FOR DONALD TUSK. SUCH A RESULT COULD BE THE END OF HIS GOVERNMENT - MICHAŁ ROGALSKI ON ONET: “We've calculated the official results of the European Parliament elections. Such a result in the case of Sejm elections would mean a revolution. It would be the end of the current ruling coalition. However, this is pure mathematics. Both votes have different significance, enjoy completely different turnout, and voter mobilization. Nevertheless, this is a significant warning signal.” -- LEWICA WOULDN'T EVEN FORM A PARLIAMENTARY CLUB - ROGALSKI CONTINUES ON ONET: “According to calculations, if these were parliamentary elections, not European ones, Law and Justice could count on 204 seats in the Sejm, and Civic Coalition on 196. Konfederacja would almost triple its representation to 52 MPs. Lewica wouldn't even form a parliamentary club with only eight seats. Third Way, running as a coalition with a result of 6.91 percent, wouldn't cross the 8 percent electoral threshold, ending up with nothing. (...) Applying a preferential tariff for the purpose of analysis, if we were to remove the 8 percent electoral threshold for Third Way from the calculation, the situation would still be a stalemate. Compared to the first scenario, the coalition of PSL and Poland 2050 would have 15 MPs, taking 10 from KO and 5 from PiS. This is still 50 parliamentarians fewer than after the elections on October 15th. Lewica and Konfederacja would retain their positions from the first scenario: 8 and 52 seats.” -- NIPPING AT THE HEELS OF COALITION PARTNERS CAN BE RISKY, AND IN THE CURRENT POLITICAL LANDSCAPE, WITHOUT AT LEAST ONE STRONG ALLY ON THE LEFT, HE WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO FORM A GOVERNMENT - ROGALSKI CONTINUES: “Nevertheless, this is a huge warning signal for the ruling coalition, including for Donald Tusk himself. It shows that nipping at the heels of coalition partners can be risky, and in the current political landscape, without at least one strong ally on the left, he wouldn't be able to form a government.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/pyrrusowe-zwyciestwo-donalda-tuska-to-moglby-byc-koncem-jego-rzadow/68y86nz,79cfc278 -- IF THIS LEVEL OF SUPPORT, AS SEEN IN THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS, WERE TRANSLATED TO THE DIVISION OF SEATS IN THE SEJM, THE DEMOCRATS WOULD SUFFER A HEAVY DEFEAT - ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI IN GW: “However, if this level of support, as seen in the European elections, were translated to the division of seats in the Sejm, the democrats would suffer a heavy defeat. Civic Coalition would get 186 seats (which is indeed 29 more than on October 15, 2023), but Third Way only 21 (44 fewer), and Lewica only 11 (15 fewer) – which would give a total of 218 seats (30 fewer than 8 months ago).” -- THE FACT THAT PIS HAS FINALLY LOST SHOULD NOT BLIND US TO HOW MUCH SUPPORT POPULIST AND ANTI-EUROPEAN GROUPS HAVE IN POLAND - MACHOWSKI CONTINUES: “The fact that PiS has finally lost should not blind us to how much support populist and anti-European groups have in Poland. Let's compare the election results in Poland and Germany in this regard. In Poland, 48.2 percent of voters cast their ballots for the anti-European PiS (it was PiS MP Krystyna Pawłowicz who called the EU flag a rag) and Konfederacja (it is newly elected MEP Grzegorz Braun who calls the EU a 'Euro-collective farm'); in Germany, the far-right AfD received just under 16 percent. In Poland, democratic pro-European parties were supported by a little over 50 percent of voters; in Germany, CDU/CSU, Social Democrats, Greens, and FDP together received 61 percent. In this regard, only Hungary is worse – there, Fidesz and the far-right Our Homeland Movement together had the support of over 51 percent of Hungarians.” -- THE WORRYING TREND IS ALL TOO VISIBLE - MACHOWSKI STATES IN GW: “Of course, the European elections have their specifics – with low turnout, those whose voters are least demobilized gain in percentage terms (this is an example of Konfederacja). But the worrying trend is all too visible.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31050590,pyrrusowe-zwyciestwo-koalicji-obywatelskiej-analiza-wynikow.html -- KONFEDERACJA IS A WOMAN. HER NAME IS ANNA BRYLKA AND SHE HAS POLITICAL TALENT LIKE GOLD. UNFORTUNATELY - NATALIA WALOCH IN GW: “All these victories are most clearly focused on the person of the newly elected MEP Anna Bryłka, a young, conservative, and Eurosceptic politician, who has kicked open the door to politics, defeating more experienced and better-known party colleagues. (...) But anyone who thinks Bryłka is a simple country girl is mistaken. The politician has managed to achieve an excellent fusion of the image of a 'girl next door' with an academic education and substantive knowledge.” https://www.wysokieobcasy.pl/wysokie-obcasy/7,53662,31051400,konfederacja-jest-kobieta-nazywa-sie-anna-brylka-i-ma-polityczny.html -- THE ONLY GOOD NEWS FROM THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS IS THE DEFEAT OF THIRD WAY, THE MAIN FORCE HINDERING DEMOCRATIZATION AMONG THE RULING DEMOCRATS - MAREK BEYLIN IN GW: “Perhaps now, after their electoral defeat, the leaders of this formation will realize that their discriminatory conservatism, sharper than the stance of their voters, led to it. Perhaps now the bankrupt Third Way, on the verge of collapse, will become more humble towards demands for equal rights? -- THE GOVERNMENT HAS ADOPTED THE PIS POLICY OF VIOLENCE TOWARDS REFUGEES AND STOPPED THERE. IT HAS NOT EVEN BEGUN TO CREATE THE FRAMEWORK FOR MIGRATION POLICY - BEYLIN CONTINUES IN GW: “Imagination and empathy are also lacking regarding the Polish-Belarusian border. The government has adopted the PiS policy of violence towards refugees and stopped there. It has not even begun to create the framework for a migration policy, as if it believed that when one doesn't know what to do, it's best to use force and illegality. This is a dramatic manifestation of a state's weakness, which, as it turns out, is incapable of building long-term political solutions.” -- THE DEMOCRATIC CAMP IS LOSING DUE TO ITS TIMIDITY - BEYLIN'S CONCLUSION: “But democracy does not have to be timid; in Poland, too, it is capable of telling a story about a better order and having ideas on how to deal with threats. Our ruling democrats simply need to lift their heads, look at the world more broadly, and see masses of existing and potential allies. They need to offer them a bold vision of a possible future and listen to what they have to say. Then democracy, still shaky and threatened in the future, could become more robust.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31050779,wynik-eurowyborow-wskazuje-ze-slabnie-poparcie-dla-lekliwej.html -- SE POLL SHOWS RELUCTANCE FOR TUSK TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT: “In a poll conducted by the Pollster Research Institute for 'SE,' Poles were asked whether Donald Tusk should run in the presidential elections. Almost half of the respondents – 48 percent – do not want the current prime minister to run for president. 37 percent of respondents think differently.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-zle-wiesci-dla-donalda-tuska-prawie-polowa-polakow-jest-na-n,nId,7569821 -- IN NEXT YEAR'S ELECTIONS, TWO POWERFUL BLOCS WILL FACE EACH OTHER – THE NATIONAL-CONSERVATIVE AND THE PROGRESSIVE-LIBERAL - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The European Parliament elections – the last attempt before next year's race for the Presidential Palace – contrary to expectations, did not bring a resolution as to the direction politics might take. On the last Sunday, 50.27 percent of the votes were cast for the parties of the October 15th coalition. Meanwhile, for the right-wing parties, which have a completely different vision of Poland's future in the EU and stand in a similar place regarding cultural disputes, i.e., PiS and Konfederacja, 48.24 percent of votes were cast. This means we can assume that in next year's elections, two powerful blocs will face each other – the national-conservative and the progressive-liberal.” -- IF TRZASKOWSKI BECOMES THE CANDIDATE OF THE PROGRESSIVE CAMP AND IMPLEMENTS HIS AGENDA FROM THE CAPITAL (REMOVING CROSSES FROM OFFICES), A SPLIT MAY OCCUR REGARDING THE SUPPORT OF THE OCTOBER 15TH COALITION VOTERS - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “If the mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, becomes the candidate of the progressive camp and implements his agenda from the capital (removing crosses from offices), a split may occur regarding the support of the October 15th coalition voters. It is worth recalling that an IBRIS poll from a few days ago showed that 56 percent of Poles critically assess this decision, with barely a third of respondents approving. The majority of PSL voters and some Third Way voters do not want an ideological war.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40604721-michal-szuldrzynski-szykuje-sie-starcie-gigantow-w-wyborach-prezydenckich-nowy-sondaz-zaskakuje -- MORAWIECKI, SIEWIERA, GAWRYLUK INDICATED BY THE RIGHT, TRZASKOWSKI BY SUPPORTERS OF THE COALITION - RZ POLL: “Jacek Siewiera and Dorota Gawryluk are, alongside Mateusz Morawiecki, on the podium of candidates from the broad right-wing spectrum whom voters would most gladly see on the presidential election lists. On the government's side, Rafał Trzaskowski clearly wins, also indicated by Lewica voters and nearly half of the Third Way electorate.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40603751-sondaz-rzeczpospolitej-ruszyla-gra-o-palac-prezydencki-kto-powinien-byc-kandydatem-na-prezydenta -- TUSK WILL FEEL ENCOURAGED NOT ONLY TO DEVOUR COMPETITION WITHIN HIS OWN CAMP BUT ALSO TO INTENSIFY THE WAVE OF REPRESSION AGAINST THE OPPOSITION - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “His frenzied reaction to the scandal involving the treatment of soldiers on the border, those calls for further purges, were a harbinger of more violent days to come. The waves of anti-PiS repression, which even prevented some PiS candidates from conducting a normal campaign, cast a long shadow over this campaign. Now Tusk will believe this course pays off. The already frenzied anti-PiS tirades, in the style of Putin, will be intensified. Lawlessness, frightening people, using the prosecutor's office and prisons for political purposes, could reach alarming proportions. The pro-Polish camp must find much mutual solidarity within itself.” -- SOCIALLY, THE RIGHT HAS A MAJORITY, AND LEFTISTS ARE INFLUENTIAL, WEALTHY, AND LOUD BUT REPRESENT A MARGIN OF SOCIETY - CLAIMS MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Socially, the right has a majority, and leftists are influential, wealthy, and loud but represent a margin of society! If the Sunday result (although I know this is a methodologically questionable assumption) were translated into parliamentary elections, Law and Justice together with Konfederacja could form a stable government. They could, but would they form one? -- I AM AMAZED AT HOW MANY DECENT PEOPLE WITH GOODWILL LIVE IN ILLUSIONS ABOUT KONFEDERACJA - KARNOWSKI WRITES: “I am amazed at how many decent people with goodwill live in illusions about Konfederacja. They don't see that they are in no hurry to gain power, they don't want to take any responsibility for the country. They stand aside, review, lecture, flirt with the Third Polish Republic camp all the time, and tell fairy tales that they would put everything in order in no time. So far, they haven't put anything in order.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/694911-piec-najwazniejszych-wnioskow-po-wynikach-wyborow -- THE INTRODUCTION OF A BUFFER ZONE WILL LEAD TO FURTHER HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS - CHAIRPERSON OF THE HELSIKI FOUNDATION FOR HUMAN RIGHTS, HELENA PRZYWARA IN GW: “Without questioning the authorities' good intentions, I fear that the protesting social organizations are right. The introduction of a buffer zone at the border will lead to further human rights violations and, unfortunately, will deepen the humanitarian crisis that has been ongoing for 3 years. She stated: - And we must remember that even if people on the road have been used by our enemies for actions against us, it does not mean they have ceased to be human, nor does it absolve us from being human and from fulfilling the obligations Poland has undertaken.” https://bialystok.wyborcza.pl/bialystok/7,35241,31052735,tour-de-konstytucja-w-podlaskiem.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Grzegorz Sroczyński, Krystyna Sibińska, Witold Koziński, Marcin Makowski.