state of play: 06/05/2024

STATE OF PLAY: PiS Not Defeated by a Single Blow – It Was Counted Out But Got Back Up; Enthusiasm from October 15th Has Dissipated; Civic Platform's Hits Are Now Ripe

Łukasz Mężyk

-- KAMIŃSKI: THIRD WAY WANTS A WEAK PiS. SOME PREFER A STRONG PiS BECAUSE POLARIZATION HELPS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/06/05/ -- JUNE 4TH IS A HOLIDAY ONLY FOR THE OLDER GENERATION. AND YOU HAVE BROUGHT THIS UPON YOURSELVES - MICHAŁ PŁOCIŃSKI IN RZ: “Let’s start with how long ago this was, because unfortunately, I don't think you realize. 35 years. If we went back 35 years from 1989, Stalinism would still reign in the country, and Władysław Gomułka would still be in prison. Were these distant times for your generation? Well, for us, June 4, 1989, is the same. For these 35 years, you've constantly dug up old disputes, argued about the Round Table, Magdalenka, and various arrangements with the secret police, and incessantly cultivated personal grievances.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40550191-michal-plocinski-4-czerwca-to-swieto-tylko-starszego-pokolenia-i-sami-do-tego-doprowadziliscie -- PiS WAS NOT DEFEATED BY A SINGLE BLOW. IT WAS COUNTED OUT, BUT IT GOT BACK UP - MARIUSZ JANICKI AND JERZY BACZYŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “If, after so many revealed scandals, United Right wins again, with Ziobro’s people on the lists, it would be a signal that this formation not only remains in the game, is perfectly resistant to scandals and even documented accusations, but can very quickly return to power and exact revenge, which it has announced many times. (...) PiS was not defeated by a single blow on October 15th, it is already clearly visible; it was counted out, but it got back up: the game is not over.” -- THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE DEFEAT FOR DONALD TUSK'S FORMATION WILL INFLUENCE MOODS AND THE SOCIAL PERCEPTION OF POLITICAL REALITIES - CONTINUED BY JANICKI AND BACZYŃSKI: “The third consecutive defeat for Donald Tusk’s formation will influence moods and the social perception of political realities. Half a year of new government has passed, a natural time for evaluations, summaries, and more general reflections on the balance of power on the public stage. If, after so many revealed scandals, United Right wins again, with Ziobro’s people on the lists, it would be a signal that this formation not only remains in the game, is perfectly resistant to scandals and even documented accusations, but can very quickly return to power and exact revenge, which it has announced many times.” -- POLAND CAN ONCE AGAIN SEND A SIGNAL THAT POPULISTS CAN BE STOPPED, AND THE UNION DOES NOT HAVE TO FALL APART - CONTINUED BY THE EDITORS OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “How other European nations will vote, it's hard to say, and we have no influence over it. But Poland can once again send a signal that populists can be stopped, and the Union does not have to fall apart. We wrote that local elections were supposed to be the culmination of the democratic 'October revolution.' In April, this was not entirely achieved: PiS won percentage-wise in regional assemblies. Now there is a second opportunity to 'complete' this. To put the dot – in this case, a European star – on the i.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2258393,1,o-co-te-wybory-pis-nie-polegl-od-jednego-ciosu-byl-liczony-ale-wstal.read?src=mt -- THE RALLY AT CASTLE SQUARE WAS REMINISCENT OF A GREATEST HITS CONCERT BY CIVIC PLATFORM IN THIS AND THE PREVIOUS CAMPAIGN - WITOLD GŁOWACKI IN OKO.PRESS: “‘I like melodies that I've heard before,’ engineer Mamoń said in Piwowski's ‘Rejs.’ This well-known show business law certainly applies to the Civic Platform’s campaign team as well. Tusk's rally was staged entirely according to a schema that we know well from the campaign before the October 15th elections. A very good and effective schema in that campaign, but nine months after those elections, it is already noticeably quite stale.” -- IF DONALD TUSK'S MAGIC STILL WORKS (AND ABOUT 25 THOUSAND PEOPLE AT A RALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SEEMS TO SUGGEST SO), THEN THE STRATEGY THAT CAN BRING CIVIC PLATFORM SUCCESS IS THE CONCLUSION BY GŁOWACKI IN OKO. https://oko.press/wiec-tuska-na-placu-zamkowym -- TUSK'S SPEECH SHOWS THAT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR CIVIC PLATFORM IS MOBILIZATION - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s speech shows that the biggest challenge for Civic Platform in the European Parliament elections is mobilization. This is where the controversial comparison of the importance of these elections to Russia's capture of Kharkiv comes from.” -- THE ENTHUSIASM FROM OCTOBER 15TH HAS DISSIPATED SOMEWHERE. BOTH AMONG POLITICIANS AND VOTERS - CONTINUED BY SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Roughly 30,000 people who came at Tusk's invitation on Tuesday shows the disproportion between current mobilization and that from last autumn. The enthusiasm from October 15th has dissipated somewhere. Both on the side of politicians and on the side of voters. That is why Donald Tusk was looking for various ways to mobilize the electorate. He rightly said that security is key now. But rhetorical exaggeration weakens his message.” -- WOULD DONALD TUSK SAY THESE WORDS TO THE UKRAINIANS? THAT CIVIC PLATFORM'S VICTORY OVER LAW AND JUSTICE IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE FALL OF KHARKOV? - WRITES SZUŁDRZYŃSKI: “Would Donald Tusk repeat these words to the Ukrainians? That Civic Platform's victory over Law and Justice is more important than the fall of Kharkiv? That the fate of the second Ukrainian city is less important than PO sending as many or two more MEPs to the European Parliament than PiS, because so much depends on the election results on June 9th in Poland?” -- THE ABUSE OF ARGUMENTS ABOUT THE EASTERN THREAT RATHER LEADS TO THE BELITTLING OF THE RISK FROM RUSSIA THAN TO BUILDING NATIONAL CONSENSUS - CONTINUED BY SZUŁDRZYŃSKI: “Donald Tusk has every right to mobilize his voters to participate in the June 9th elections. Their result is important. However, the abuse of arguments about the eastern threat rather leads to the belittling of the risk from Russia than to building national consensus and resilience to threats from the East. https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40554681-michal-szuldrzynski-donald-tusk-na-placu-zamkowym-4-czerwca-mobilizacja-ponad-wszystko -- HE BEGAN AN OFFENSIVE OF SMILES, AND NOW HE THREATENS LIKE PiS - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “In 2023, Donald Tusk, by organizing the June 4th march, began an offensive of smiles, which he contrasted with PiS, which went into the October 15th elections threatening with the former prime minister, his party, and Germany. Today, Donald Tusk is also threatening.” -- NOT EVEN A YEAR HAS PASSED SINCE DECLARATIONS WERE MADE THAT POLISH POLITICS COULD BE DIFFERENT, ONLY TO FIND OUT THAT PERHAPS NOT FOR NOW - CONTINUED BY BARTKIEWICZ: “What was striking in Tusk's speech was that in this final stretch of the campaign, fear of PiS seems to be the most important lure for voters, perhaps even more than fear of Russia (incidentally, these two fears merge). Not even a year has passed since declarations were made that Polish politics could be different, only to find out that perhaps not for now. https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40552571-artur-bartkiewicz-jak-odczytywac-slowa-donalda-tuska-zwyciestwo-platformie-obywatelskiej-ma-dac-strach -- DONALD TUSK'S RALLY ON JUNE 4TH, OR TWO STICKS WITHOUT A CARROT - MICHAŁ WOJTCZUK IN GW: “It was a stick. And as a counterweight, he presented – no, not a carrot at all, but another stick – the moral decay of the United Right camp. 'I looked through PiS's lists for the EP again today: these are wanted posters!' the prime minister insisted, referring to the scandals involving politicians from the previous ruling camp that continue to be revealed.” -- TUSK REALIZES THAT HIS GOVERNMENT IS INCREASINGLY ANNOYING WITH UNFULFILLED PROMISES WEEK BY WEEK - CONTINUED BY WOJTCZUK IN GW: “Tusk also showed once again that he has a sense of public mood. He is well aware that his government is increasingly annoying with unfulfilled promises from election campaigns week by week. The leader of Civic Platform tried to defuse this bomb by reaching for the 'good Tsar, bad boyars' schema.” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,31031407,wiec-4-czerwca-czyli-dwa-kije-bez-marchewki.html -- ACCORDING TO AN INTERNAL POLL OBTAINED BY "WPROST," MARCIN KIERWIŃSKI, THE LEADER OF THE CIVIC PLATFORM'S WARSAW LIST, MAY HAVE TROUBLE GETTING INTO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT - RZ: “Bad news for Marcin Kierwiński might be the poll held by Civic Platform regarding electoral preferences in Warsaw. The list leader can only count on a third-place result, which doesn't guarantee him a seat in the European Parliament. Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, running from second place, is expected to garner significantly more support than Kierwiński. Meanwhile, Michał Szczerba, fifth on the list, is second in terms of results.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40549941-nieoficjalnie-duze-zaskoczenie-na-warszawskiej-liscie-lider-listy-nie-dostanie-sie-do-europarlamentu -- PEOPLE'S EMOTIONS HAVE SUBSIDED. THEY THINK THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS ARE EVEN LESS IMPORTANT. MOREOVER, NO ELECTION CAMPAIGN IS VISIBLE IN RYCHLIKI - FRAGMENT OF ANNA DOBIEGŁA'S REPORT IN GW: “- Hardly anyone votes here. The mayor was elected with only 993 votes, and there were 2915 eligible voters. So, do the math. People's emotions have subsided. They think the European Parliament elections are even less important. Moreover, no election campaign is visible in Rychliki. In previous elections, there were many posters hanging here, but now... You see for yourself, there's nothing – Filip looks around the area.” -- I FEEL DECEIVED. BECAUSE SOMETHING HAS CHANGED DUE TO THESE ELECTIONS, OR WILL SOMETHING CHANGE? NO - CONTINUED IN DOBIEGŁA'S REPORT IN GW: “- I won't help you, because I'm not going to vote – he says in passing. – I feel deceived. Because something has changed due to these elections, or will something change? No. That's exactly why I try not to go to the polls anymore.” https://elblag.wyborcza.pl/elblag/7,180071,31025728,piec-lat-temu-w-rychlikach-glosowalo-730-osob-na-inne-wybory.html -- IS SOVEREIGN POLAND GOING DOWN? - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “It is quite interesting that we have three parliamentary investigation committees – concerning the visa scandal, postal voting, and Pegasus – but the greatest attention is focused on the Justice Fund and Sovereign Poland. The committees have not caused significant damage to PiS so far. Meanwhile, Zbigniew Ziobro's party has decided to sink itself. Not only did it create a system of managing money that looks suspicious at first glance, but an informant from a trusted circle also appeared in the matter. It will be interesting to see if more people speak up now.” -- MEANWHILE, PiS IS AT AN IMPASSE. IT CANNOT OPENLY DEFEND SOVEREIGN POLAND BECAUSE THE MATTER IS RISKY AND THE COALITION PARTNER IS PROBLEMATIC - CONTINUED BY SAWCZUK: “Meanwhile, PiS is at an impasse. It cannot openly defend Sovereign Poland because the matter is risky and the coalition partner is problematic – therefore, it is not entirely worthwhile to stick your neck out. It would be more convenient to wash one's hands of it, except that it then turns out that PiS tolerated a serious scandal in its own government for years. Because Jarosław Kaczyński's party cannot credibly claim that it had no idea about the goings-on in the Justice Fund. It's damned if you do, damned if you don't!” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/06/03/sawczuk-w-poniedzialek-suwerenna-polska-idzie-na-dno/ -- LUDWIK DORN WOULD BE TURNING 70 TODAY. -- BIRTHDAYS: Jacek Protasiewicz, Czesław Sobierajski, Leszek Dobrzyński, Artur Zasada.

Łukasz Mężyk