-- SIKORSKI AND MASTALEREK ENTER THE PRESIDENCY RACE: 'EVERY POLITICIAN THINKS ABOUT IT'. SIKORSKI ON RUNNING FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, MASTALEREK: I AM BEING URGED TO RUN FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/06/03 -- TRZASKOWSKI VS. MORAWIECKI: 29 TO 26 - UNITED SURVEYS POLL FOR WP: “Rafał Trzaskowski would win the first round with the support of 29.2% of respondents. Former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki would take second place, with 25.6% of respondents casting their vote for him today. In third place, more than 15 percentage points behind the other two, would be Szymon Hołownia, who could count on 10.2% of the votes.” -- DOROTA GAWRYLUK SLIGHTLY BEHIND HOŁOWNIA, WITH 8.2% SUPPORT. https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/sondaz-prezydencki-wp-gawryluk-moze-sporo-namieszac-7033440419015424a – THE MIDDLE CLASS IS STARTING TO FEEL PUSHED OUT OF THE WORLD THEY ONCE LIVED IN – SAYS PROF. ANDRZEJ LEDER IN NEWSWEEK (Dawid Karpiuk): “More and more social groups will feel anger. Eventually, those whose growing inequalities push them down the social ladder, who feel left behind, will desire revenge. Hitler – to return to his biography – saw what was happening to the poorer part of the then-middle class. In his notes, he wrote about the fundamental difference between a townsman and a worker. A worker is reconciled with his situation. A petty bourgeois fears becoming a worker. This fear practically begs to be politically exploited. In the preface to 'The Study of Tyranny,' I try to show how insightful a diagnostician this terrible man was. What he did as a politician was monstrous, but his political intuition, his understanding of mass politics, demonstrated remarkable insight. Today, there is no shortage of politicians who – although they may keep their democratic opponents awake at night – perfectly sense the emotions of large social groups. One can despise Trump, but he is also an insightful man. He knows what to do to gain mass support. And what taboos to break in order to do so.” -- PIS REPRESENTS THAT PROVINCIAL PART OF THE MIDDLE CLASS, SKILLFULLY FORMING AN ALLIANCE WITH THE POPULACE – LEDER CONTINUES IN NEWSWEEK: “In Poland, there are two basic ones: the urban middle class, which does not want to be recognized as provincial or peripheral, and aspires to the global world. And the second, let's call it provincial, which does not particularly want to aspire to proverbial New York-ness, does not want to compete with the world. It would rather fit into the traditional Polish cultural pattern, in essence, the Sarmatian pattern. The current political conflict in Poland is a conflict between these groups. PiS represents this provincial part of the middle class, skillfully forming an alliance with the populace.” -- IN A SENSE, THE PiS GOVERNANCE WAS SOMETHING LIKE THAT FOR THE URBAN MIDDLE CLASS AND NOT ACCIDENTALLY CAUSED GREAT MOBILIZATION IN OCTOBER 2023 – LEDER CONTINUES: “In a sense, PiS governance was something like that for the urban middle class, and not accidentally caused a great mobilization in October 2023. But that's not enough. It needs to be a series of events that will make large segments of society realize that a lack of political engagement, or at least taking a stance, can cost us dearly. This is not just a Polish problem. The process we are talking about concerns many Western societies. The threat from Putin turned out to be a considerable shock with very specific political consequences in European democracies.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/spoleczenstwo/gniew-klasy-sredniej-ekspert-utrzymanie-statusu-kosztuje-coraz-wiecej/7rwk25w -- AFERA-RESISTANT ELECTORATE. STRONG POLARIZATION CHANGES THE RULES OF THE GAME IN POLITICS - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “Just as a court verdict on Trump will not affect the election results in the USA, similarly, further revealed scandals involving people connected with PiS will not affect the party's standings. Crimes must be accounted for, but politicians will not do it. That is a task for the prosecutor's office and the courts.” -- TO WIN ELECTIONS, YOU MUST SHOW YOU CAN GOVERN BETTER THAN PIS. CRIMES MUST BE ACCOUNTED FOR, BUT THIS WILL NOT BE DONE BY POLITICIANS CONSTANTLY SHOUTING ON TELEVISION OR INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEES - GADOMSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “Just as a court verdict on Trump will not affect the election results in the USA, similarly, further revealed scandals involving people connected with PiS will not affect the party's standings. If the democratic opposition politicians hope that further revelations will finally knock out PiS, they are mistaken. To win elections, you must show that you can govern better than PiS. Crimes must be accounted for, but this will not be done by politicians constantly shouting on television or investigative committees. This can be done by the prosecutor's office and the courts, which have been and are inefficient, sometimes fearful, and often politicized. Reforming the justice system is one of the tasks of the ruling coalition. There are dozens of such tasks. The results of future elections will depend on their execution.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31021948,aferoodporny-elektorat-silna-polaryzacja-zmienia-reguly-gry.html -- SO FAR, HOWEVER, THE FUND FOR THE PROTECTION OF WITNESSES DOES NOT SEEM TO BE DOOMING PIS. WHICH DOES NOT MEAN IT WON'T DOOM SOVEREIGN POLAND - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “A week before the European elections, the tapes could be a problem for PiS. But they don't have to be. The party is waiting for further recordings and public reaction. If this is not reflected in party polls, PiS will downplay the scandal. Unless tapes of a much heavier caliber appear, followed by prosecutorial charges. For now, however, it doesn't seem that the Fund for the Protection of Witnesses is dooming PiS. Which does not mean it won't doom Sovereign Poland. Without Zbigniew Ziobro, who has health problems, the formation lacks a strong leader who would fight for it and its members.” -- KACZYŃSKI HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO VASSALIZE SOVEREIGN POLAND AND CUT OFF ITS MOST COMPROMISED MEMBERS - NIZINKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “Jarosław Kaczyński has an opportunity to vassalize Sovereign Poland and distance himself from its most compromised members. Zbigniew Ziobro, who attacked Mateusz Morawiecki, is in a desperate political situation. If PiS loses its subsidy because of the Ziobro group, someone will have to bear the consequences. Especially if Kaczyński cannot announce a tenth consecutive victory on June 9th.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40532741-jacek-nizinkiewicz-przez-fundusz-sprawiedliwosci-pis-czeka-wewnetrzna-wojna -- ZIOBRO MAY END HIS POLITICAL LIFE AS THE LEADER OF AN ORGANIZED CRIME GROUP - RENATA GROCHAL IN NEWSWEEK: “There is a certain irony in the fact that Zbigniew Ziobro, who was fascinated by Eliot Ness, the legendary American agent who put Al Capone behind bars, from childhood, may end his political life as the leader of an organized crime group.” -- WAS PRIDE, GREED, AND EXCESSIVE DRAWING FROM THE STATE COFFERS THE UNDOING OF ONE OF THE MOST AMBITIOUS POLITICIANS ON THE POLISH RIGHT? - GROCHAL CONTINUES: “What went wrong, Mr. Zbyszek? Was it pride, greed, and excessive drawing from the state coffers that led to the downfall of one of the most ambitious politicians on the Polish right? Or perhaps Jarosław Kaczyński pushed Ziobro to raid the Fund for the Protection of Witnesses because he didn't share money from party subsidies with his coalition partners? Since 2016, it has been no secret in PiS that Ziobro's people were draining the Fund for the Protection of Witnesses, turning it into a party piggy bank for Solidarna Polska, and later Suwerenna Polska. There was a silent consent to this.” -- THE ZIOBRO GROUP'S TROUBLES DO NOT GREATLY CONCERN PIS COALITION PARTNERS - GROCHAL WRITES: “The Ziobro group's troubles do not greatly concern PiS coalition partners. There's even a joke circulating in the party that it's now clear why Ziobro changed the name of Solidarna Polska to Suwerenna Polska. Because solidarity ended with the loss of power, and now sovereign responsibility for the scams has begun, with the principle of 'every man for himself' prevailing. It seems that Jarosław Kaczyński has already written Ziobro off. When journalists pointed out to the party leader that he was Ziobro's godfather, he nervously assured them that he was 'no father,' and certainly not Ziobro's godfather. After all, the party leader dreamed of being a retired savior of the nation, not the godfather of a political mafia.” https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/ziobro-chcial-byc-jak-amerykanski-agent-co-poszlo-nie-tak-panie-zbyszku/zsy1k4k -- WE SHOULD OPPOSE THE DEEPENING OF THIS INJUSTICE BY ACCEPTING DONALD TUSK'S WORDS THAT THE EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD FUNCTION WITHIN THE CURRENT TREATY FRAMEWORK. LAW AND JUSTICE IS MOST FAITHFUL TO THIS POSITION - JACEK CZAPUTOWICZ IN RZ: “In this situation, we must acknowledge Radosław Sikorski's message that the European Union system is unjust and inconsistent with the principles applicable in federations, such as the German federation. However, this is not an extraordinary situation; the UN system is also considered unjust by many, as France and Great Britain occupy permanent seats on the Security Council, not, for example, Germany, India, or Japan. Despite these shortcomings, both the UN and the European Union serve to realize the interests of the international community and Poland. We should oppose the deepening of this injustice by accepting Donald Tusk's words that the European Union should function within the current treaty framework. Law and Justice is most faithful to this position. We will see if this is reflected in the European Parliament elections.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40530781-jacek-czaputowicz-czy-wybory-do-parlamentu-europejskiego-moga-zalagodzic-kryzys-legitymacji-unii -- BIRTHDAYS: Jolanta Kwaśniewska (69), Łukasz Szumowski (52), Krystian Jarubas, Katarzyna Włodkowska.