state of play: 05/25/2024
POLITICAL GAME STATE: Zaremba: A Streak of Brawls is a Recipe for Permanently Engaging Poles' Attention, Wielowieyska: A Narrow Circle is in Shock When Duda Utters This Sentence
-- SATURDAY POLITICAL AGENDA: HOŁOWNIA ON POLAND'S DEVELOPMENT PLAN, DUDA IN STARY SĄCZ, KACZYŃSKI IN KOZIELICE, SIKORSKI WITH HALICKI, MORAWIECKI ON TOUR: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/05/25/
-- AFTER EIGHT YEARS OF HUMILIATION FROM NOWOGRODZKA, DUDA EXPECTS SOMEONE TO ASK FOR HIS OPINION, CONSIDER HIS POINT OF VIEW - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “After eight years of humiliation from Nowogrodzka, Duda expects someone to ask for his opinion, to consider his point of view. And sometimes he sends such a signal to the October 15 Coalition: I just want you to consult something with me. At the same time, the president fears Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has extensive experience in politics and is a tough competitor. He doesn't want to be constantly outplayed by Tusk. The head of his chancellery, Marcin Mastalerek, is supposed to help Duda in this game. The structure of the relationship between the president and the prime minister looks like this: first, Duda agrees to something or enters into dialogue to reach some compromise, then someone from PiS tells him that he is submissive and Tusk has outplayed him. And then the president, often on Mastalerek's advice, changes front and digs in his heels. This was the case with the negotiations regarding ambassadors.”
-- IT IS HARD TO EVEN COMMENT ON SUCH AN OPINION: PEOPLE LISTENING TO THIS WERE IN SHOCK - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “Sometimes, however, he falls into a combative or slightly hysterical mood, and according to my information, in a wider group, he can utter a sentence whose meaning is as follows: 'Cohabitation (implying with Tusk) ended with the death of Lech Kaczyński, I am still alive.' It is hard to even comment on such an opinion: people listening to this were in shock.”
-- IS IT WORTH TAKING A STEP FORWARD EVEN AGAINST PART OF THE INTELLECTUAL BACKING OF KO? - WIELOWIEYSKA WRITES IN GW: “It is known that every time she made any compromise with the PiS camp, she lost in the polls. But what will happen after the European elections? Is it worth taking a step forward even against part of the intellectual backing of KO? Is it better to withdraw and postpone the renewal of the National Council of the Judiciary for a year, until the presidential elections? Especially since it is not certain whether Duda would sign this bill after the Senate amendments are introduced.”
-- MAŁGORZATA PAPROCKA WILL ENCOURAGE DUD A TO SIGN THE BILL, MASTALEREK THE OPPOSITE - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “In the October 15 Coalition, there is a conviction that Małgorzata Paprocka would rather encourage Duda to sign the bill, and Mastalerek the opposite. If this is the case, although Paprocka's recent statements do not indicate this, it is obvious that Mastalerek has a greater influence on the president. Before making a decision, he is the last to leave Duda's office, and it has always been said about the president that he makes decisions under the influence of his last interlocutor.”
-- DUDA'S VETO WOULD ALSO INDICATE THAT HIS WORDS ABOUT READINESS FOR COMPROMISE AND ESCAPING THE TRAP OF PARTY INTERESTS ARE WORTH LITTLE - WIELOWIEYSKA WRITES IN GW: “And if Duda signs the bill, the situation of ordinary neo-judges will be better in case international tribunals have to rule on this matter again. After the creation of the new National Council of the Judiciary, the cleanup and restoration of constitutional rules will begin, and thus radical sentiments among legal judges may weaken, conflicts in courts will subside, which is what neo-judges desire. The absence of a new National Council of the Judiciary will fuel conflicts, and many people in the judiciary do not want this. Duda's veto would also indicate that his words about readiness for compromise and escaping the trap of party interests are worth little.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30994068,duda-dziala-pod-wplywem-chwilowych-emocji-czasem-osoby-sluchajace.html
-- THE PRESIDENT OF WARSAW HAS JUST INDICATED HIS POTENTIAL SUCCESSOR, RENATA KAZNOWSKA - MICHAŁ WOJTCZUK IN GW: “The title of first deputy is not ceremonial. After the recent amendment to the municipal self-government act, it is no longer a commissioner appointed by the prime minister, but the first deputy mayor who takes over the management of the city hall if the city mayor resigns his mandate before the end of his term. And this is more probable today than a few days ago - on Thursday, May 23, Donald Tusk announced that he would not run for President of the Republic of Poland and indicated that Rafał Trzaskowski should run for this office. If he were to win, Kaznowska would govern Warsaw until extraordinary elections.”
https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,30994435,po-trzaskowskim-kaznowska-kim-jest-najbardziej-wplywowa-osoba.html
-- ONE CANNOT DENY THE LEADER OF KO PERFECTION IN OPERATIONS OF APPROACHING, IRRITATING, INCITING, AND PROVOKING. THIS IS PROBABLY HIS MAIN SKILL AS A POLITICIAN - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “One can ponder endlessly whether Tusk will actually find these 10 billion for defense (distributed over 10 years, by the way), or if it is just an election ploy. After all, the main leitmotif of the campaign for the European Parliament on the Civic Coalition's side is the 'war awakening.' On the other hand, one cannot deny the KO leader perfection in operations of approaching, irritating, inciting, and provoking. This is probably his main skill as a politician.”
-- BUT WHAT IF, BY SOME MIRACLE, ANOTHER CANDIDATE FROM THE RIGHT WON THE PRESIDENCY THIS YEAR? - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “The leaders of the new coalition can naturally console themselves that it is only for a year, until the end of Andrzej Duda's term. But what if, by some miracle, another candidate from the right won the presidency in a year? This would lead to a permanent stalemate, compromising Poland's international activity for many years.”
-- THE TRIBUNAL HAS EFFECTIVELY CEASED TO EXIST - ZAREMBA WRITES FURTHER: “The tribunal has effectively ceased to exist. But even if it cannot be dismissed, and the new coalition takes it over only as the terms of successive judges expire, the opposition will then have every basis not to recognize it. We have become a country where what is legal and what is not is decided by the executive, sometimes the legislative power. This means that the law becomes a complete fiction, and this is happening precisely at a time when the European Commission considers Poland a "rule of law" country.”
-- PIS ALSO MADE HUGE MISTAKES HERE, BUT THE NEW COALITION HAS LONG SURPASSED THEM. TUSK DOES ALL THIS SOLELY IN THE NAME OF PERCEIVING POLITICS AS A PERMANENT BRAWL - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: “PiS also made huge mistakes here, but the new coalition has long surpassed them. Tusk does all this solely in the name of perceiving politics as a permanent brawl. There is no other political goal today. Even if he was guided by something else once... This streak of brawls is meant to be the coalition's dowry for next year's presidential campaign, even though it will not be Andrzej Duda who will be the competitor of the candidate or candidates of the new coalition. But it is also a recipe for permanently engaging Poles' attention. There are, of course, other tools: the fight over abortion or hunting for Russian agents within the ranks of the right. There are even those that benefit Poland, with the protection of the eastern border at the forefront. However, personal squabbles are the easiest tool to use.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-gra-w-zbijaka-czyli-jak-najlatwiej-upokorzyc-prezydenta,nId,7531013
-- THE SPOT RHYMES WITH THIS. WE HAVE NOTHING TO BOAST ABOUT BEFORE THE ELECTIONS - A PO MEMBER SPREADS HIS HANDS. – THE TURNOUT IS EXPECTED TO BE POOR, AND THESE ARE REALLY IMPORTANT ELECTIONS - AT MICHAŁ TOMASIK'S ON THE TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: “– The spot rhymes with this. We have nothing to boast about before the elections – a PO member spreads his hands. – The turnout is expected to be poor, and these are really important elections. Intensifying polarization might pay off for PO in the EP elections – mobilize a tired electorate – but presidential elections are already on the horizon, where one also needs to reach out to the center. To the question of whether intensifying polarization can be called grasping at straws, we hear: – It's short-sighted action, because it works now, but I agree that in the long run it can be harmful. The boss acts here and now, and then we'll see.”
-- THE BOSS WON'T TAKE HIS FOOT OFF THE PEDAL – SOMEONE ASSOCIATED WITH PO TELLS “POLITYKA” - CONTINUES AT TOMASIK'S ON THE POLITYKA PORTAL: “– The boss won't take his foot off the pedal – someone associated with PO tells “Polityka.” This means that until June 9, the course will continue to be escalated. The question is whether the prime minister's leg will hold up, or if we can expect a change of doors.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2257519,1,tusk-mocno-zaostrza-kurs-przed-wyborami-do-pe-kierownik-nogi-z-drzwi-nie-wyjmie.read
-- KIERWIŃSKI, GAZING WITH A THREATENING LOOK AT PiS DEPUTIES AND SAYING "AGENTS OF INFLUENCE ARE IN THIS CHAMBER," REMINDS TOO MUCH OF MACIEREWICZ OR KACZYŃSKI (WHO HAVE NUMEROUS SIMILAR PERFORMANCES TO THEIR CREDIT) FOR THIS TO PLEASE ME IN ANY WAY - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “Jarosław Stróżyk is currently the head of one of the most important Polish services, the Military Counterintelligence Service. Perhaps, therefore, he should focus on ensuring the anti-espionage activities of his subordinates, rather than engaging in PR activities of the new commission? After all, neither Donald Tusk nor Tomasz Siemoniak are hindering him in effectively searching for Russian or Belarusian agents. Also, the outgoing head of the Ministry of Interior and Administration, Marcin Kierwiński, gazing with a threatening look at PiS deputies and saying 'agents of influence are in this chamber,' reminds too much of Macierewicz or Kaczyński (who have numerous similar performances to their credit) for this to please me in any way. I therefore choose one vision of Polish politics against another, not one PR against another. Because both PRs are equally fatal.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-bruksela-czy-budapeszt,nId,7531151
-- SO THERE ARE QUITE A FEW LESSONS FROM THE WORK OF THE INVESTIGATIVE COMMISSION. PERHAPS IT WAS WORTH THAT 100 MILLION? - AGNIESZKA JĘDRZEJCZYK IN OKO.PRESS: “It was a sequence of events, one led to another. The conviction that the goodwill of the rulers and their sacrifice for the nation justify everything, has successively destroyed the foundations of the state. Meanwhile, modern societies in extraordinary situations do not have to limit themselves to the intellectual horizons of the leader of the current ruling majority. The same applies to companies, organizations, and local government communities. They can all build solutions quickly, but through debate. As indeed confirmed in 2024, when the government hastily adopted regulations on aid for Ukraine. For a moment, it opened itself up to remarks from the opposition and civil society. And it turned out that it was possible. So there are quite a few lessons from the work of the investigative commission. Perhaps it was worth that 100 million?”
https://oko.press/lekcja-z-wyborow-kopertowych
-- THE TALENT POOL WAS SMALL. WE WERE MEDIOCRELY PREPARED FOR THE ROUND TABLE TALKS - RYSZARD BUGAJ IN CONVERSATION WITH ELIZA OLCZYK IN RZ: “All personnel decisions were made by Geremek, probably in agreement with Mazowiecki, and with Lech Wałęsa. You know, the talent pool was small. We were mediocrely prepared for the Round Table talks. I remember Geremek calling me about a week before the start of the Round Table talks and asking: 'Do you have everything written down regarding economic matters?' We hadn't agreed that I should write anything, but I sat down and scribbled something. Our liberals were not enthusiastic.”
-- THE THINKING WAS AS FOLLOWS: 'TO HELL WITH THE ECONOMY, BUT WE MUST SHOW HERE THAT WE PUSHED THROUGH OUR AGENDA' - BUGAJ TELLS OLCZYK: “About the mechanism of wage indexation due to inflation. This, incidentally, continued in the Sejm of the 10th term, because even though almost everyone had already received an inflation compensation, Solidarity demanded a second compensation. And it was granted. I remember that in connection with this bill, demanded by Solidarity, Karol Modzelewski, Jacek Kuroń, and I went to a meeting of the National Commission in Gdańsk. It was obvious that for political reasons, Wałęsa absolutely did not want to agree to there not being a second indexation. The thinking was as follows: 'to hell with the economy, but we must show here that we pushed through our agenda.'”
-- ON PRIVATIZATION, BALCEROWICZ WAS NOT A PROPONENT OF THE UNIVERSAL PRIVATIZATION THAT LEWANDOWSKI LATER PUSHED THROUGH, IN MY OPINION WITH CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES FOR THE ENTERPRISES PRIVATIZED UNDER THIS PROGRAM - BUGAJ CONTINUES TO OLCZYK: “And this work completely consumed me. I had a very complicated situation because on one hand there was Leszek Balcerowicz, and I thought he couldn't lose – if he did, we would lose with him. On the other hand, I didn't like some of his ideas. Although I must admit that on the issue of privatization, Balcerowicz was not a proponent of the universal privatization that Lewandowski later pushed through, in my opinion with catastrophic consequences for the enterprises privatized under this program. Most of these plants went bankrupt. Moreover, this program facilitated the further enrichment of the nomenclature. 514 medium-sized enterprises fell into the hands of speculators and the nomenclature. I cannot understand why Janusz Lewandowski was so insistent on this. The overwhelming majority of share certificates were sold for the value of one family dinner. And it was obvious from the beginning that this would happen.”
-- BUGAJ ON OLCZYK'S QUESTION ABOUT BETRAYAL IN MAGDALENKA: “No, no, where from, that's just a waste of time. One can, however, wonder if we should have gone down the path of such a rather close alliance with the PZPR. Lech Wałęsa and the Kaczyński brothers prevented this to some extent by deciding on political acceleration. But then…”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art40436181-ryszard-bugaj-okragly-stol-trzeba-przyjac-do-wiadomosci
-- IT IS DIFFICULT TO ENCOURAGE WOMEN TO SHOW THEMSELVES, TO TREAT THEMSELVES AS EQUAL TO MEN. AND ON THE OTHER HAND, I KNOW THAT IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF SELF-AWARENESS AND SELF-BELIEF - OLGA LEONOWICZ, ENTREPRENEUR AND PARTNER OF MARK BRZEZINSKI, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO POLAND, IN CONVERSATION WITH PATRYCJA MACIEJEWICZ IN GW: “On the one hand, I observe how difficult it is to encourage women to show themselves, to treat themselves as equal to men. And on the other hand, I know that it is only a matter of self-awareness and self-belief. Women in the US are like from another reality. I have many examples of this. Marek and I welcome all guests at the door at the embassy, we want to get to know them. There is a huge difference between how Polish women and how American women greet each other. Polish women do it with great uncertainty, with a feeling as if they are here by chance or by some luck. Instead of entering upright, confident, shaking hands firmly, saying 'Good morning, my name is Maria Kowalska, I work at the University of Warsaw,' they are quiet, shy, have a light handshake, often do not introduce themselves by first and last name. And for us, it is always very valuable information where someone works, because we can introduce such a person to someone else, and simply good networking can result from it.”
https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,177151,30991077,olga-leonowicz-jest-potezna-roznica-miedzy-tym-jak-witaja.html
-- 15TH ANNIVERSARY OF RADIO WNET.
-- 10 YEARS AGO, elections to the European Parliament were held. The last ones won by Platforma Obywatelska, PO: 32.13% to PiS 31.78%.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Halina Rozpondek, Aldona Młyńczak. SUNDAY: Krzysztof Warlikowski (turning 62), Andrzej Milczanowski, Teresa Liszcz, Leon Kieres, Julia Pitera, Janusz Śniadek, Łukasz Schreiber (37).
live
4 hours
4 hours
Pełczyńska-Nałęcz: Apparently, the President Believes Keeping Dogs on a Chain is Okay
4 hours
Pełczyńska-Nałęcz: The President is Trying to Usurp Power That Systemically Doesn't Belong to Him
4 hours
Nawrocki Declares End of Post-Communism. Pełczyńska-Nałęcz: Absolute Distortion of Reality
9 hours
Kosiniak-Kamysz Announces Patriot System Readiness
10 hours
„Largely Safe Now.” — Tusk on the Current Version of the Mercosur Agreement
10 hours
Visit to Budapest? Tusk: I told Orbán that as long as he protects politicians sought by us...
10 hours
"Irony of History": Tusk on Nawrocki's Decision Regarding the Round Table
10 hours
„We Have a Way to Neutralize the President's Boycott Attempts.” — Tusk on Constitutional Tribunal Changes
10 hours
„No and That's Final.” — Tusk Firmly on Government and Presidential Roles Regarding G20 and Foreign Policy
state of play
THE STATE OF PLAY: Prof. Nowak: The dream scenario - Tusk versus Braun and their allies, Prof. Marciniak: Braun is the only one consolidating the anti-system electorate. And that's the whole secret of his rise
state of play
yesterday
POLITICAL STANDING: PiS Gains in OGB Polls and Braun Nearly Overtakes Confederation, Morawiecki Seeks a Broad Right-Wing Tent à la Reagan, GW Warns of Resuming Tree Logging
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12/16/2025
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12/15/2025
POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Szubartowicz: Coalition Carried by Inertia, but Given a Second Life; Zaremba: The Slow Twilight of the Kaczyński Era
state of play
12/13/2025
STATE OF PLAY: Kalukin: Perhaps the goal is for Braun to keep growing, as this mainly weakens PiS; Chwedoruk: In 2027, Tusk will nominate someone other than himself for Prime Minister
state of play
12/12/2025