state of play: 05/16/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Prof. Dudek on Pro-Russian Accusations: People Have Grown Indifferent; Stanowski on PO's Ad: Still Endless, Maybe Someone Will Get Hurt

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THE PRESIDENT TURNS 52 TODAY. -- RUSSIA'S BIGGEST SUCCESS IN POLAND IS PIS - PO'S AD WITH SKULLS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/05/16/ -- AND SO IT GOES TO HELL (MAYBE SOMEONE WILL GET HURT) - KRZYSZTOF STANOWSKI ON PO'S AD: https://x.com/K_Stanowski/status/1791016893119119484 -- A TERRIBLE AD. SOMEONE IN PO HAS GONE MAD - MACIEJ BĄK FROM RADIO ZET: A few people are asking why, when commenting on PO's terrible ad, I'm skipping an assessment of PiS's ad today. So, I'll give my assessment: PiS's ad is in the same poor, irresponsible, divisive tone as PO's. My congratulations to Tusk for reaching the same level as Morawiecki, was that the goal? https://x.com/MaciejBk1/status/1790996721331315177 -- IT'S NOT ABOUT COLLABORATION, BUT MENTAL CONNECTIONS BETWEEN PIS AND PUTIN'S RUSSIA - JERZY BACZYŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “This is where Tusk wants to draw the front line of this campaign. Kaczyński today identifies Brussels/Berlin, not Moscow, as the main threat to Poles' freedom; like Orbán, he is an ideological Putinist, an enemy of Western liberal democracy; he cultivates dangerous illusions of a sovereign 'Fortress Poland,' between East and West, in fact entrusting national security to Putin's mercy. The choice on June 9 is therefore simple: East or West. It is known that the European elections are dramatically threatened by low turnout; a simple, clear division, stimulating voters' fears and emotions is the only chance to mobilize them, and thus achieve victory or defeat. But even if this is a game, it is one with real, very high stakes.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2255973,1,nie-o-agenturalne-a-o-mentalne-zwiazki-pis-z-putinowska-rosja-chodzi.read -- ALL OF THIS GIVES THE IMPRESSION OF A RATHER POOR GAME. JUGGLING ACCUSATIONS FOR WHICH THERE ARE NO DOCUMENTS - PROF. ANTONI DUDEK IN RZ: “The average voter isn't interested in this. It's becoming increasingly barren, and I'm curious how long voters will tolerate this barrage of accusations without evidence. PiS has been talking about a reset policy from times long past. Meanwhile, Tusk says that certain actions were blocked, and we'll find out what they were when the commission publishes its report. It hasn't even started working yet. All of this gives the impression of a rather poor game. Juggling accusations for which there are no documents.” -- WHEN YOU REPEAT THE SAME ACCUSATIONS OVER AND OVER AGAIN, AND DON'T PRESENT CREDIBLE EVIDENCE, AFTER SOME TIME THESE ACCUSATIONS FADE AND THEIR IMPACT BECOMES NEGLIGIBLE - PROF. DUDEK CONTINUES IN RZ: “People have already grown indifferent to it. If politicians permanently accuse each other of being agents, and don't present any evidence, people will add it to the canon of accusations of theft. However, some evidence needs to be presented, and the case taken to court. Let the court decide if someone stole something, and it's similar with this. When you present the same accusations repeatedly, and don't present credible evidence, after some time these accusations fade, and their impact becomes negligible. Right now, it's about convincing the convinced.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40361391-ko-czy-pis-kto-jest-bardziej-prorosyjski-prof-antoni-dudek-polacy-juz-zobojetnieli -- PANIC AND SPYMANIA ARE TO THE KREMLIN'S ADVANTAGE, RUSSIAN SABOTAGE OPERATIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. BUT PUTIN'S SERVICES TARGET OUR PEACE ABOVE ALL - AGATA KAŹMIERSKA AND WOJCIECH BRZEZIŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Even the speculation itself about whether Russians were involved in the fires must be very pleasing to the Kremlin. Because regardless of whether that was actually the case or not, it strengthens the image of Russian services as very dangerous. This causes mistrust in state institutions and hinders their functioning, fuels divisions, and breaks unity. Panic, spy mania, and the exchange of accusations – all of this fits perfectly with Moscow's goals. It disturbs our peace. And that is one of the important – if not the most important – elements of the hybrid war being waged against us.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/pozary-w-polsce-dlaczego-panika-i-szpiegomania-sa-na-reke-kremlowi-187107 -- 29 TRZASKOWSKI, 26 MORAWIECKI - WP PRESIDENTIAL POLL: As many as 29.6 percent of respondents stated that they would cast their vote for the Civic Coalition candidate Rafał Trzaskowski. Mateusz Morawiecki would also make it to the second round. The former Prime Minister, the Law and Justice candidate, could count on 25.5 percent of the votes. https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30975861,kto-na-prezydenta-za-dude-wiadomo-jak-zaglosuja-polacy-wyborcy.html -- THE PRIME MINISTER TOLD THE PRESIDENT THAT ADAM BODNAR'S TALKS WITH THE HEAD OF STATE WERE A MISTAKE - KAMIL DZIUBKA ON ONET: “– The Prime Minister told the President that Adam Bodnar's talks with the head of state were a mistake – we hear from the Presidential Palace. – These were not negotiations, and besides, we will certainly not agree to such a format of talks. There is no question of bargaining. We will not give in on this issue so that the President concedes on another, and vice versa. Anyone who thinks it could look like that is mistaken – says an important official from the Prime Minister's circle.” -- IF ANDRZEJ DUDA HAD NOT SIGNED THIS LAW, AND THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION HAD LIFTED THE ARTICLE 7 PROCEDURE AGAINST POLAND, IT WOULD HAVE BEEN A FATAL SIGNAL BEFORE THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS - DZIUBKA FURTHER QUOTES AN INFORMANT: “Another explanation for the postponement of work on the changes is circulating in the corridors. Even before the European elections, the European Commission is to conclude the rule of law protection procedure initiated against Poland under Article 7 of the Treaty of Lisbon due to the judicial changes made by PiS. This was announced by the head of the EC, Ursula von der Leyen, during her visit to Poland a week ago. This is associated with the fear of a potential presidential veto. – If Andrzej Duda had not signed this law, and the European Commission had lifted the Article 7 procedure against Poland, it would have been a fatal signal before the European elections – we hear from our informant.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/kluczowa-reforma-pod-znakiem-zapytania-zgrzyt-na-linii-tusk-bodnar/gkgmgvj,79cfc278 -- CPK IS AN OPPORTUNITY, NOT JUST A RISK. A POLEMIC WITH GADOMSKI - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GW: “Gadomski is angry that CPK is to be 'Polish' (which PiS likes) and state-owned (which the left supposedly likes). This sounds reasonable but is nonsensical. Because CPK is a state-private undertaking with significant investment contributions from, among others, the Vinci Airports consortium and IFM Global Infrastructure Fund – two global airport powerhouses. IFM has 17 in its portfolio, and Vinci manages 70 airports in 13 countries, from London Gatwick, Lisbon, and Atlanta in Georgia to Osaka in Japan and Santiago in Chile. If such specialized giants are willing to invest in CPK, it means Gadomski doesn't need to worry about the economic feasibility of the undertaking.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30975755,cpk-to-szansa-a-nie-tylko-ryzyko-polemika-z-gadomskim.html -- NOW SOMEONE HAS SHOT AT THE KING. INTO THE SYSTEM? - JERZY HASZCZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The subjugation of the judiciary to him continues, as does the attack on the media and non-governmental organizations. Fico is the entire system. Fico is the king of Slovakia. Against his own will, Fico also appeared as the head of the corruption system that Ján Kuciak wrote about. The investigative journalist was killed by an assassin's bullets in 2018. And now someone has shot at the king. Into the system? – we don't know that. An assassination attempt on a politician, especially such an influential one, regardless of the assassin's motives, must have political consequences. Not only in Slovakia.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40362221-jerzy-haszczynski-zamach-na-roberta-fice-upiorna-symbolika-po-zabojstwie-jana-kuciaka -- BIRTHDAYS: Andrzej Duda, Krystyna Zachwatowicz, Krzysztof Brejza, Michał Ł. Kamiński.

Łukasz Mężyk