state of play: 05/06/2024
STATE OF PLAY: KO and PiS Neck-and-Neck with 19 Seats Each, Jałoszewski on Oko.press: Investments Are About Normal Development, Not Disputes with PiS, NBP Releases Euro Spot, Gadomski: PO Should Not Fear Euro Discussion
-- WE WANT THE BEST POSSIBLE RELATIONS WITH AMERICA, REGARDLESS OF WHO GOVERNS HERE, AND WE WILL NOT REPEAT THE MISTAKES OF OUR PREDECESSORS BY BETTING EVERYTHING ON ONE HORSE - SAID SIKORSKI DURING A BRIEFING FOR POLISH MEDIA AT THE KENNEDY CENTER: “- We want the best possible relations with America, regardless of who governs here, and we will not repeat the mistakes of our predecessors by betting everything on one horse,” said Sikorski during a briefing for Polish media at the Kennedy Center in Washington, where he participated in the FT Weekend Festival conference. Sikorski’s words referred to his Saturday (May 4) meeting with former National Security Advisor to Vice President Pence, General Keith Kellogg, who belongs to the America First Policy Institute think tank. The General is considered a close advisor to Donald Trump on foreign policy matters.”
https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/sikorski-powiedzial-co-sie-stanie-jesli-wygra-trump-nie-popelnimy-bledu-poprzednikow-aa-r81V-17Ss-cEms.html
-- 19 SEATS EACH FOR PIS AND KO - PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “My calculation resulted in the following seat distribution: PiS - 19, KO - 19, Trzecia Droga - 8, Nowa Lewica - 3, and Konfederacja - 4. This calculation takes the percentage results from the voivodeship elections and multiplies them by the turnout from 2019.”
-- IN MY ASSESSMENT, THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE THAT TURNOUT WILL SWAY TOWARDS LARGER CITIES, BECAUSE THERE ARE MORE PEOPLE THERE WHO ARE MOTIVATED TO VOTE JUST BY MEDIA ATTENTION - PROF. FLIS CONTINUES IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “For years, voter turnout in local elections was higher in smaller towns, but in parliamentary or European elections, it already leaned towards larger cities. Events from 2018-2023 have resulted in a decrease in the advantage of small municipalities over large cities in local elections. And since 2007, the turnout advantage of larger cities over the rest of Poland in national elections has been decreasing with each election. So the question now is whether this trend will be confirmed in these elections, or whether turnout will again tilt in one direction? In my assessment, there is a greater chance that turnout will sway towards larger cities, because there are more people there who are motivated to vote simply by media attention.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30935242,kto-wezmie-53-mandaty-do-europarlamentu-prof-flis-obajtek.html
-- ADAM BODNAR IS HOLDING BACKSTAGE TALKS WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE REGARDING THE NEW KRS LAW - TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK AND GRZEGORZ OSIECKI IN MONEY.PL: “Certain concessions regarding the so-called neo-judges are possible – so that Andrzej Duda does not veto the new regulations. Moreover, the Palace looks favorably upon one of the proposals. The issue of the KRS has been blocking EU funds for Poland. (...) According to Money.pl’s findings, unofficial negotiations on this matter also took place during the long May weekend. If both sides, the government and the president, reach an agreement, it will mean profound changes to the government’s bill – and this at the very end of the parliamentary work. Because senators, perhaps Adam Bodnar himself, who also sits in the upper house, could submit amendments this week.”
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/zwrot-w-sprawie-krs-zakulisowe-negocjacje-adama-bodnara-z-andrzejem-duda-news-money-pl-7024336298466240a.html
-- KIERWIŃSKI, WHEN ASKED WHY HE IS LEAVING THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR AND ADMINISTRATION: WE DECIDED WITHIN CIVIC PLATFORM THAT WE MUST SHOW HOW IMPORTANT THESE ELECTIONS ARE, SIEMONIAK: I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT KIERWIŃSKI WAS SOBER - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/05/06/
-- THE ZLOTY IS A SYMBOL OF INDEPENDENCE, STRENGTH, AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP, THE ZLOTY DRIVES THE ECONOMY, A SYMBOL OF SOVEREIGNTY AND STATEHOOD, THE ZLOTY SHAPES OUR FUTURE, FOR EACH OF US IT REPRESENTS CERTAINTY, PREDICTABILITY, AND EFFECTIVENESS - NBP IN A SPOT FOR THE 100TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE ZLOTY:
https://youtu.be/W0uJmyYWVPQ?si=-ChdWPljrEcx-yYh
-- PLATFORMA IS AFRAID OF DISCUSSING THE EURO. IT IS MAKING A MISTAKE - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “If PO does not explain why it is worth adopting the European currency, and does not counter absurd claims that Germany wants to take Poland’s gold reserves, only PiS demagoguery remains in the minds of Poles. (...) It is clear that they fear that the arguments of Adam Glapiński (Domański partially agreed with them in an interview) and PiS propagandists about the harm of adopting the common currency resonate with a large portion of voters. Therefore, they prefer to adopt a rhetoric similar to PiS rather than undertake the effort to convince Poles that the euro makes sense. I consider this a mistake.”
-- CONSEQUENTLY, XENOPHOBIC SENTIMENTS ARE GRADUALLY GROWING, AND PLATFORMA, INSTEAD OF OPPOSING THIS, CALLS OUT TO VOTERS: WE ARE ALSO A BIT XENOPHOBIC, JUST SMILING ONES - GADOMSKI CONTINUES IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “In the long term, this propaganda not only confuses the minds of voters, who are already economically poorly educated, but also makes them distrustful of the entire European Union. Consequently, xenophobic sentiments are gradually growing, and Platforma, instead of opposing this, calls out to voters: we are also a bit xenophobic, just smiling ones. Platforma clearly does not believe that voters can be convinced by rational arguments. This is a very pessimistic observation.”
-- THE LITHUANIAN ECONOMY, WHICH IS IN THE EUROZONE, GREW ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN POLAND'S – AN AVERAGE OF 3.0 PERCENT – GADOMSKI CONTINUES: “The Irish economy grew at an average rate of 7%, Malta's at 6%. Both of these countries have the euro. Great Britain, which not only retained its currency (it agreed to join the Union under this condition) but has been outside the Union for several years, had a GDP growth rate of 1.3%. The Lithuanian economy, which is in the eurozone, grew only slightly slower than Poland's – an average of 3.0%, and the Czech economy, which is outside the euro, grew at a rate of 1.7% – slower than neighboring Slovakia, which has been in the eurozone since 2009 – an average of 2.2%.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30939473,platforma-boi-sie-dyskusji-o-euro-robi-blad.html
-- THE MORE IMPORTANT THE MATTER FOR TUSK IS THAT THE RECONSTRUCTION IS PERCEIVED AS A CLEAR STRENGTHENING OF THE GOVERNMENT - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “Budka, Kierwiński, and Hetman will therefore have to contend with accusations throughout the campaign that they are abandoning the difficult work in the government, which they agreed to with voters, for easier and better-paid work in Brussels. Most likely, this will not prevent them from winning seats, but by betting on ministers who haven't even served half a year, KO and PSL have made a risky move. The more important the matter for Tusk is that the reconstruction is perceived as a clear strengthening of the government – substantive and political.”
-- ACCELERATION AS A TRANSITION TO A STAGE WHERE WE NO LONGER REFER TO PIS, BUT PRESENT OUR POLITICAL CONCEPTS, OUR STRATEGIES, AND PLANS? - MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “Acceleration can also be understood differently: as the next step in the new government's policy after settling accounts with PiS and rectifying the injustices that accumulated during eight years of that party’s rule – such as the lack of salary increases for teachers. As a transition to a stage where we no longer refer to PiS, but present our political concepts, our strategies, and plans, a certain holistic vision for the country in Europe. The EP elections are a good moment to begin such an acceleration, to pour new fuel into the government's tank, replacing that associated with 'restoring normality' after PiS – because that will soon cease to be sufficient.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/co-planuje-donald-tusk-przyspieszenie-ma-dwa-znaczenia/7kyr860
-- YES TO THE CONSTRUCTION OF CPK, HIGH-SPEED RAIL, PORTS. POLAND MUST DEVELOP - MARIUSZ JAŁOSZEWSKI ON OKO.PRESS: “Poland can afford to build a large airport and should have one. The new government should also build high-speed rail, expand ports, build nuclear power plants, develop Eastern Poland, and even rebuild the Saxon Palace. This is not a matter of dispute with PiS, but of the normal development of the country.”
-- THERE IS A LACK OF A CLEAR DECLARATION, INCLUDING FROM PRIME MINISTER DONALD TUSK, ON WHETHER CPK WILL BE BUILT. THERE ARE ALSO NO CLEAR DECLARATIONS ON WHAT INVESTMENTS THIS GOVERNMENT WANTS TO IMPLEMENT - JAŁOSZEWSKI CONTINUES ON OKO.PRESS: “Attacks on CPK play into the hands of Kaczyński's party because they distract attention from the scandals of previous years. And they provide PiS with fuel to criticize the new government for allegedly dismantling Poland. However, the ruling Coalition of October 15 is not without fault. There is a lack of a clear declaration, including from Prime Minister Donald Tusk, on whether CPK will be built. There are also no clear declarations on what investments this government wants to implement.”
-- YES, PIS SCANDALS MUST BE ACCOUNTED FOR, RULE OF LAW MUST BE RESTORED. BUT THE GOVERNMENT MUST ALSO PRESENT A PLAN FOR DEVELOPMENT - JAŁOSZEWSKI WRITES FURTHER ON OKO.PRESS: “The current authorities will not escape this discussion. Because every government must have a plan not only to maintain power but also for the country's development. And it should be a multi-year, cross-party plan that extends beyond one, two, or even three terms. Because large investments are not only costly but also take years. The Tusk government came to power with promises to settle accounts with PiS scandals and restore the rule of law. Indeed, PiS scandals must be accounted for, and the rule of law must be restored. But the government must also present a plan for Poland's development. It must also find funds for development, because power is about solving problems and finding money.”
https://oko.press/tak-dla-budowy-cpk-polska-musi-sie-rozwijac
-- PRESIDENTIAL DRAFT LAW ON NATIONAL SECURITY: THE DIRECTION IS GOOD, BUT REQUIRES AMENDMENTS - STANISŁAW KOZIEJ IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “The presidential draft law on the actions of state authorities in case of external threats to state security is moving in the right direction. It offers an opportunity to increase integration and improve cooperation among the most important state bodies in managing national security, including especially defense, creating better conditions for its continuity in times of peace, crisis, and war. The presidential initiative is also useful because it can lead to a broader discussion, not just parliamentary, on this extremely important topic.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30941850,prezydencki-projekt-ustawy-o-bezpieczenstwie-narodowym-kierunek.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Witold Bereś, Janusz Cieszyński, Stanisława Prządka, Marcin Zawiła, Krzysztof Sońta.
live
52 min
60 min
Kierwiński: Being Led by the Nose by a Certain Political Camp Doesn't Speak Well of the President's Independence
65 min
Kierwiński: Any Irregularity in Services Under the Ministry of Interior and Administration Will Be Burned Out with a Red-Hot Iron
66 min
„I'd gladly assess its value.” — Żurek Questions Bogucki on Presidential Bill
76 min
Kierwiński Hints at Further Personnel Changes within the State Protection Service
3 hours
Today We Pay Tribute to Polish Victims of Russian Crimes. Tusk Tweets from Bykivnia
4 hours
Kierwiński: Interior Ministry and Government Protection Bureau Had No Information About Threats from Any SOP Officer
4 hours
„Even the last few dozen hours show that things weren’t going well there.” — Kierwiński on the SOP Audit
5 hours
„I couldn't dismiss him because it requires the president's consent, and that wasn't given.” — Kierwiński on the suspension of the Head of the State Protection Service
5 hours
„There is no institution elected by more people in free elections than the Sejm.” — Siwiec Responds to Cenckiewicz
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