state of play: 05/04/2024
STATE OF PLAY: Zaremba: What is the Third Way's position? Michalski: The Left Can't Do Anything, They Haven't Convinced Anyone, Majmurek: Magierowski Would Be a Decent Candidate, The Question Is Whether PiS Isn't Too Radical Today
-- POVERTY VISITED THE FIRST COMMUNION - FACT MAGAZINE COVER.
-- RZ POLL ON MINISTERS' RUN FOR EP: 25.2% of respondents rated this fact positively. 43.1% of respondents rated the participation of ministers and deputy ministers negatively. 31.7% of respondents declared indifference.
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40295291-sondaz-jak-polacy-ocenieja-start-ministrow-i-wiceministrow-w-wyborach-do-pe
-- MASS EXODUS FROM THE SEJM AND GOVERNMENT TO BRUSSELS IS A JOKE ON VOTERS - PIOTR PACEWICZ AND MAGDALENA CHRZCZONOWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “AS A CITIZEN, we feel cheated, and this saying takes on an additional meaning: because politicians, harnessed to parliamentary work, are suddenly abandoning the cart they were supposed to pull. It's about the fact that individuals elected as MPs to the Polish Sejm, and even holding ministerial positions, are resigning from these honorable roles and announcing their candidacy for the European elections.”
-- THE SUSPICION THAT IT'S ABOUT USING POSITIONS IN THE SEJM OR GOVERNMENT FOR ADVANCEMENT AND PROFIT IS CREPING INTO THE GAP OF DISTRUST - PACEWICZ AND CHRZCZONOWICZ FURTHER IN OKO.PRESS: “It's only a matter of time before Adam Bodnar or Andrzej Domański, pillars of the government, are chosen for Brussels. Or Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz… It sounds absurd, but perhaps there are no untouchable people anymore? An escape to Brussels, OK, a move to Brussels undermines the unwritten contract we make with the politician we vote for. We want to see him in the Sejm, and her in the government, not in Belgium and France. The suspicion that it's about using positions in the Sejm or government for advancement and profit is creeping into the gap of distrust. Because such a minister or MP has free promotion in the European Parliament elections, and a position in the European Parliament means good money.”
-- PARTIES ARE PETRIFYING - CHRZCZONOWICZ AND PACEWICZ WRITE FURTHER IN OKO: “Tolerance for the repeated use of the same politicians in successive elections leads to a vicious cycle mechanism. The party's fixation on a narrow group of leaders causes parties to further petrify, careers within them seem less attractive (because they are not), and public trust in parties declines.”
https://oko.press/polityk-wielokrotnego-uzytku-masowy-wymarsz-z-sejmu-i-rzadu-do-brukseli-to-zarty-z-wyborcow
-- THE GOVERNMENT IS THROWING CPK TO THE DUST - JERZY POLACZEK IN CONVERSATION WITH SALON24: “Unfortunately, concerns about the fate of this civilizational project are justified. Firstly, the ruling coalition led by Civic Platform (KO) had repeatedly expressed its public reluctance to build CPK even before coming to power. It directly declared that it would not implement the project, or would not implement it fully, concerning both the aviation and railway components. It is not by chance that declarations of expanding Chopin Airport in Warsaw's Okęcie by over PLN 2.5 billion are now being introduced into the media circulation. Something simply needs to be said to calm the aviation market and extinguish the political fire ignited by the rulers, as it has concrete business implications.”
-- AIR TRAFFIC PARAMETERS IN WARSAW WILL INCREASE BY HALF IN THE COMING YEARS. THIS ENTAILS THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL COMPENSATION DUE TO THE INTENSIVE NOISE IMPACT ZONE - JERZY POLACZEK FURTHER: “I would like to draw attention to the fact that neither the mayor of the capital, the vice-chairman of Civic Platform, Rafał Trzaskowski, nor Prime Minister Tusk, nor anyone from the government side has deigned to inform the residents of Warsaw that air traffic parameters in their city will increase by half in the coming years. This entails the need for additional compensation due to the intensive noise impact zone. This problem already affects about half a million residents of Warsaw, who have only now found out about everything, by chance.”
https://www.salon24.pl/newsroom/1375682,rzad-wyrzuca-cpk-do-piachu-dwie-dekady-wysilku-trafily-do-kosza-wywiad
-- ANNA MARIA ŻUKOWSKA ON TWITTER: I propose we first extradite the man who burned a family on the highway. We'll deal with Obajtek once he's charged.
https://x.com/AM_Zukowska/status/1786637724448907713
-- 8 OUT OF 10 MEDIA PUBLICATIONS HAD A NEGATIVE OR MIXED TONE TOWARDS THE GOVERNMENT - ANALYSIS BY POLITYKA W SIECI:
https://x.com/Polityka_wSieci/status/1786461343979016330
-- RECONSTRUCTION CAN EITHER REINFORCE THE SKEPTICISM THAT SOMETHING IS FALLING APART, OR THE IMPRESSION OF CONTROL OVER THE SITUATION - TOMASZ SAWCZUK FROM KULTURA LIBERALNA IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “In this context, one can raise a doubt: if a number of heavyweight politicians go to Brussels, who will look after the voters and governance? Who will ensure the implementation of this program? Will there be no strategy at all? And if there is no coherent plan, does the risk increase that PiS will simply return in 2027? Prime Minister Tusk announced a government reconstruction for May 10th. In this context, it will have some symbolic significance – it can either reinforce skepticism or the impression of control over the situation.”
-- IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHAT THE LONG-TERM GOVERNANCE PHILOSOPHY – THE GOVERNMENT'S PROGRAM STRATEGY – WILL BE. THIS IS CLEARLY VISIBLE IN THE CPK ISSUE - SAWCZUK FURTHER: “However, it seems that the exodus of front-line politicians to the EP is linked to a deeper fear. According to many observers, the process of holding the PiS governments accountable is proceeding somewhat chaotically. It is still unclear what the long-term governance philosophy – the government's program strategy – will be. This is clearly visible in the CPK issue, where there has been communication chaos for months.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2254899,1,exodus-ministrow-do-brukseli-czy-to-zaszkodzi-rzadowi-donalda-tuska.read
-- I AM KEEN ON DISCUSSING THE REDUCTION OF THE WEEKLY WORKING HOURS - AGNIESZKA DZIEKIEMIANOWICZ-BĄK IN CONVERSATION WITH JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Therefore, we should boldly set goals and not be afraid to discuss how to achieve them, because that is where change begins. That is why I am so keen on discussing the reduction of the weekly working hours. Because in the face of upcoming changes and challenges, this would be the next civilizational step after the introduction of the eight-hour workday.”
-- THE GOAL IS CLEAR: TO CLEAN UP THE LABOR MARKET AND SECURE THE PENSION FUTURE OF EMPLOYEES - DZIEKIEMIANOWICZ-BĄK FURTHER IN KP: “How we treat 'mandate contracts' (umowy o dzieło), which accompany, for example, employment contracts, is a matter for discussion. However, the goal is clear: to clean up the labor market and secure the pension future of employees, regardless of their employment form.”
-- I WOULD ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO JOIN TRADE UNIONS - DZIEKIEMIANOWICZ-BĄK FURTHER IN KP: “Therefore, on the occasion of May 1st, I would encourage people to join trade unions. And we in the ministry will do everything to create conditions for effective social dialogue – for both employers and employees.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/dziemianowicz-bak-tak-odsmieciowimy-polski-rynek-pracy/
-- IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE TIME OF PENANCE FOR PIS IS NOT YET OVER - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “PiS has strong arguments regarding EU policy in the new campaign. But Tusk responds with a wartime alert, warnings against the European right as 'Putin's' and criminal accusations against Kaczyński's associates. It is also possible that the time of penance for PiS is not yet over.”
-- PERHAPS THE GESTURES OF PIS LEADERS TOWARDS THE HUNGARIAN PARTY FIDESZ ARE TOO OSTENTATIOUS, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, HYSTERICALLY IMPLYING A COMMON AXIS WITH PUTIN FOR PIS MEMBERS IS SIMPLY UNTRUE - ZAREMBA FURTHER: “Perhaps the gestures of PiS leaders towards the Hungarian party Fidesz are too ostentatious. The same can be said about relations with Western eurosceptics or with Donald Trump, whose stance on Putin's war remains ambiguous and murky. He should not be confused with the voting of some American Republicans in favor of aid to Kyiv. The most Trumpian ones were against it until the end. But at the same time, hysterically insinuating a common axis with Putin for PiS members is simply untrue. And what's worse, this clamor absolves Tusk and his party from what should be most natural in this campaign: presenting their own view on the Green Deal, the Migration Pact, and finally, on changing EU treaties, thus answering the question of whether the transformation of the EU into a superpower is natural and desirable.”
-- THE THIRD WAY'S POSITION? BUT WHICH POSITION? THE SLIGHTLY EUROSECPTIC TONE OF THE PEASANT PARTY OR THE EURO-ENTHUSIASTIC OVERZEALOUSNESS OF SZYMON HOŁOWNIA? - ZAREMBA FURTHER: “While the KO's stance involves a series of contortions and evasions, what can be said about the message of its smaller coalition partners? The Third Way's position? But which position? The slightly eurosceptic tone of the peasant party or the euro-enthusiastic overzealousness of Szymon Hołownia? Who calls for the quickest possible adoption of the euro, and fields the only MEP from Poland 2050, Róża Thun. She, in turn, voted in the European Parliament for the revision of treaties, i.e., for a European superstate. For Hołownia, who did not manage to support such a radical change in the EU's system directly at the time, it was supposedly only a 'minor difference in changes.'”
-- ZAREMBA ON REAL OBSTRUCTION OF CPK: “Of course, Kaczyński is not entirely defenseless. He will, and already is, remind people of Tusk's unfulfilled election promises regarding Poland. Especially convincing explanations from the new government about what will happen with large investments, particularly the Central Communication Port (CPK), are a strong asset in his hands. Tusk is afraid to completely reject it, but the government's stories about having to build it cheaper, and also longer, since airport expansions in Warsaw, Modlin, or Radom are the priority, look like real obstruction of this civilizational project.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-kampania-o-unii-czy-o-przyjaciolach-putina-kto-uderzy-celnie,nId,7488660
-- IF DUDA AND MORAWIECKI ACTUALLY HAD INFLUENCE ON TRUMP AND USED HIM TO PROTECT POLAND, WHICH IS AGAIN CASTING A SHADOW OF RUSSIA – IT WOULD BE GREAT. SIMILARLY, IT WOULD BE IDEAL TO USE THE EU ONLY TO STRENGTHEN EUROPE AND POLAND, AND NOT TO ACCELERATE THE CHANGE OF OUR CONTINENT TOWARDS MORAL "PROGRESS" - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “Therefore, it is not the content of the two Polish foreign policies that is the problem for me, but the level of political dispute in Poland, the level of mutual hatred between factions. If Duda and Morawiecki actually had influence on Trump and used him to protect Poland, which is again casting a shadow of Russia – it would be great. Similarly, it would be ideal to use the EU only to strengthen Europe and Poland, and not to accelerate the change of our continent towards moral "progress", especially since increasingly bizarre self-proclaimed individuals are speaking in the name of such "progress" today. However, knowing Poland and Poles, I fear that if Trump starts dismantling the EU together with Putin, there will be people in the right-wing faction who want to help him.”
-- TODAY'S LEFT IN POLAND MAY HAVE GOOD MEDIA ACCESS, BUT WHEN IT COMES TO SOCIAL CHANGE, THEY CAN'T DO ANYTHING, THEY HAVEN'T CONVINCED ANYONE - CEZARY MICHALSKI FURTHER IN INTERIA: “Neither is the EU for that purpose, nor does it have anything to do with liberalism. Today's left in Poland, admittedly, has good media access, but when it comes to social change, it can't do anything, it hasn't convinced anyone. Not even women and young people, whom they so often invoke. So they often demand that the EU should carry out a revolution in Poland for them. And they lie that the EU was created for this purpose, that the EU is doing this. And this is grist to the mill of the anti-EU right in Poland. And there is enough of this water to keep the mill running.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-dwie-polskie-polityki-zagraniczne,nId,7488647
-- KACZYŃSKI FACES A HUGE PROBLEM, BECAUSE THERE IS NO CANDIDATE VISIBLE ON THE RIGHT WHO COULD WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. BUT THIS DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING YET, IN MAY 2014 IT SEEMED THAT KOMOROWSKI WOULD SECURE RE-ELECTION IN THE FIRST ROUND - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK.
-- NEXT YEAR'S ELECTIONS THEREFORE HAVE FUNDAMENTAL STAKES FOR KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY - MAJMUREK FURTHER: “If PiS loses the presidential elections, the coalition of October 15th will be able to dismantle the power system introduced by PiS to the end and introduce changes in Poland that the right-wing camp does not want to agree to – e.g., registered partnerships. A president from a different camp will also not save people associated with PiS from legal problems by using the right of pardon – and there is much to indicate that at least a few figures from the former power camp may need such assistance. Next year's elections therefore have fundamental stakes for Kaczyński's party.”
-- MAGIEROWSKI WOULD BE A DECENT CANDIDATE FOR THE RIGHT, THE QUESTION IS WHETHER PIS ISN'T TOO RADICAL A PARTY TODAY TO NOT BE A BURDEN FOR THIS CANDIDACY - MAJMUREK FURTHER: “However, PiS cannot count on a repeat of ten years ago. It has no one in reserve it could use in the same way as Duda. Perhaps they thought of Tobiasz Bocheński, but his result and campaign in Warsaw turned out to be deeply disappointing. Some more moderate PiS sympathizers suggest the party nominate Marek Magierowski, the current ambassador to the United States, formerly representing Poland in Israel. Magierowski would be a decent candidate for the right, the question is whether PiS isn't too radical a party today to not be a burden for this candidacy – so much so that it would preclude the chances of winning.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/kogo-wystawi-pis-w-wyborach-prezydenckich-2025-od-tej-decyzji-zalezy-przyszlosc/55fhce0
-- PUSHING FOR THE ELECTIONS WAS AN OBVIOUS RISK FOR THE STATE TO THROW MONEY DOWN THE DRAIN SIMPLY BECAUSE KACZYŃSKI BELIEVED IN SASIN'S DELUSIONS - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW ABOUT THE ENVELOPE ELECTIONS: “Sobon's email clearly shows that even if the Senate had proceeded faster, and local government officials – let's add, against the law – had provided voter lists, the envelope election would still have ended in disaster. In other words, pushing for the elections was an obvious risk for the state to throw money down the drain simply because Kaczyński believed in Sasin's delusions. Therefore, the main task of both Dworczyk and Sobon was to convince the investigation committee that they could not remember whether such correspondence had taken place.”
-- WIELOWIEYSKA CITES SASIN'S TESTIMONY BEFORE THE INVESTIGATION COMMITTEE:
“- Is it true that you laughed at the prime minister among your colleagues, saying that he would be responsible for everything because you signed nothing? - asked MP Tumanowicz.
- I thought I had come before a serious committee - Sasin cut him off.
- And did you sign anything in connection with the postal elections, any documents? - the MP did not back down.
- What specific ones?
- Any.
- I probably signed some.”
-- WHEN THE CONCEPT OF ENVELOPE ELECTIONS FINALLY FAILED, MORAWIECKI SCORED TWICE. FIRSTLY, HE WAS RIGHT: ORGANIZATION WAS IMPOSSIBLE, AND SECONDLY: HE WAS OBEDIENT TO THE PRESIDENT'S WILL UNTIL THE END - WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER IN GW: “Morawiecki, despite his skepticism, carried out Kaczyński's order. - He wanted Kaczyński to see how loyal the prime minister was and carried out even orders he was not convinced about. When the concept of envelope elections finally failed, Morawiecki scored twice. Firstly, he was right: organization was impossible, and secondly: he was obedient to the president's will until the end, although he also had the courage to say how things really were - a source from PiS explains to me.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30931519,odbyly-sie-takie-wybory-w-bawarii-wiec-moglyby-sie-udac-i.html
-- TODAY, HOWEVER, WE KNOW THAT ANY WELL-CONSTRUCTED INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK, EVEN ONE WITH CONSTITUTIONAL GUARANTEES, MUST LOSE IN A CONFRONTATION WITH BRUTAL POLITICAL FORCE, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT FINDS ITS LEGITIMACY IN PUBLIC CONSENT - PROF. MAREK SAFJAN IN GW: “A naive faith in the inviolability of our legal institutions, in the idea that they themselves create a sufficient protective barrier against anti-democratic ambitions, increased our weakness and vulnerability. Before our eyes, seemingly indestructible structures and edifices reflecting the rule of law crumbled like a house of cards. Surprised and unprepared, we watched this with amazement. Today, however, we know that any well-constructed institutional framework, even one with constitutional guarantees, must lose in a confrontation with brutal political force, especially when it finds its legitimacy in public consent authorizing such actions. In essence, knowledge of history should have sparked our imagination earlier; let us recall the 1930s, when the solid – seemingly – structure of the first Kelsenian Austrian Constitutional Court collapsed as a result of the emerging totalitarian state regime of Chancellor Kurt von Schuschnigg, just as the democratic guarantees of the German Weimar Republic had previously disintegrated.”
-- A LARGE PART OF OUR SOCIETY WAS DECEIVED BECAUSE IT DID NOT NOTICE THE RISK HIDDEN IN THE ACTIONS OF THE RULERS IN TIME AND WAS GENERALLY DISCOURAGED - SAFJAN FURTHER: “A large part of our society was deceived because it did not notice the risk hidden in the rulers' actions in time and was generally discouraged. Let's add, incidentally, that one of the reasons was the very clear collision in 2015 between two visions of Poland: the one seen from Europe until 2015, the 'model student and green island,' and the one seen from the perspective of many ordinary Polish men and women who felt a lack of fulfillment of their expectations, suffered hardship, were not heard, and above all, often did not understand a reality that no one even bothered to explain.”
-- AS LAWYERS, WE ALSO TOO EASILY ACCEPTED "TRASH" CONTRACTS AND CHARITY FOR AN HOURLY RATE, WHICH WAS IN COMPLETE CONTRADICTION WITH THE PRINCIPLE OF EQUAL AND FAIR TREATMENT OF PEOPLE - MAREK SAFJAN FURTHER IN GW: “But this was also a lesson for the so-called elites. We did not pass the test then, we remained in a state of intoxication with our own success, the myth of the end of history, and the conviction that the lessons had been learned more than sufficiently. Meanwhile, people must be convinced of law and democratic institutions, because this does not come automatically, but is the result of accumulated experience, real participation of civil society in public life. My reflection is directed at the legal community, because it is also co-responsible for the crisis of the rule of law, among other things, through excessive, sometimes thoughtless dogmatism and formalism in the interpretation and application of law not only by the administration but also by courts, lack of communication directed at ordinary, average people, treating our institutions and guarantees as a perfect abstraction that an ordinary person cannot grasp, and therefore it is not even worth explaining, a reluctance to take a functional view of the law, thoughtless application of criminal sanctions (a symbolic conviction for stealing a chocolate bar…), unpredictability and kaleidoscopic variability of laws, as well as a lack of stabilization in civil, criminal, and administrative jurisprudence. As lawyers, we also too easily accepted 'trash' contracts and charity for an hourly rate, which was in complete contradiction with the principle of equal and fair treatment of people.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30922547,czesc-spoleczenstwa-dala-sie-pis-owi-wywiesc-w-pole-ale-elity.html
-- TUSK HAS NO IDEA ABOUT PATRIOTISM IN THE POLISH WAY - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “However, after several months in power, there are no attempts to create or strengthen such institutions by the new government. But there were also few similar efforts during the eight years of PiS rule. For increasing national cohesion, Kaczyński's team's solidarity social policy did more, but the state remained rather weak. With some exceptions – the most significant being more effective fiscal policy. What does today's Sienkiewicz think about national community? It seems he has some influence on Tusk. However, Tusk himself avoids declaring his binding views or goals like fire. The value is supposed to be the movement itself, leading to the expansion of power.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art40281421-piotr-zaremba-donald-tusk-nie-ma-zadnego-pomyslu-na-patriotyzm-po-polsku
-- THOSE 99 MANDATES FOR THE REPRESENTATIVES OF OUR SIDE WERE A SHOCK TO THEM. THAT IS WHY JARUZELSKI SAID THEY LOST THROUGH THEIR OWN STUPIDITY - ALEKSANDER HALL IN CONVERSATION WITH ELIZA OLCZYK IN RZ: “This had already been agreed upon in Magdalenka, so we didn't discuss it. Even more so as it was an attractive offer. I don't recall anyone on our side protesting it. The Senate elections meant a true test. We know from literature that the PZPR assessed its chances in the Senate elections very optimistically. They knew they would lose in Gdańsk, Warsaw, Kraków, Silesia, but they counted on victory in provincial Poland. Mieczysław Rakowski apparently predicted they might lose 30 seats out of 100. So, those 99 mandates for the representatives of our side were a shock to them. That is why Jaruzelski said they lost through their own stupidity.”
-- IF EVENTS IN POLAND HAD TURNED OUT DIFFERENTLY OR HAD NOT HAPPENED, IT IS OBVIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL - HALL FURTHER TO OLCZYK IN RZ: “I think our internal disputes, including about the Round Table, and the internal struggle within the Solidarity family played a role. But frankly, Germany lies in the center of Europe, and the wall dividing Berlin attracted more attention. The fall of the wall and the liquidation of the GDR were of immense importance. But if the events that took place earlier in Poland had turned out differently or had not happened, it is obviously difficult to imagine the fall of the Berlin Wall.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art40281691-aleksander-hall-ja-bym-im-te-wodke-w-magdalence-darowal
-- BIRTHDAYS: Wojciech Mucha, Ryszard Zbrzyzny, Grzegorz Cydejko, Andrzej Kania, Piotr Tyma, Maciej Orzechowski. SUNDAY: Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, Witold Waszczykowski, Witold Kołodziejski, Kamil Dziubka, Justyna Kosela.
live
53 min
61 min
Kierwiński: Being Led by the Nose by a Certain Political Camp Doesn't Speak Well of the President's Independence
66 min
Kierwiński: Any Irregularity in Services Under the Ministry of Interior and Administration Will Be Burned Out with a Red-Hot Iron
67 min
„I'd gladly assess its value.” — Żurek Questions Bogucki on Presidential Bill
77 min
Kierwiński Hints at Further Personnel Changes within the State Protection Service
3 hours
Today We Pay Tribute to Polish Victims of Russian Crimes. Tusk Tweets from Bykivnia
4 hours
Kierwiński: Interior Ministry and Government Protection Bureau Had No Information About Threats from Any SOP Officer
4 hours
„Even the last few dozen hours show that things weren’t going well there.” — Kierwiński on the SOP Audit
5 hours
„I couldn't dismiss him because it requires the president's consent, and that wasn't given.” — Kierwiński on the suspension of the Head of the State Protection Service
5 hours
„There is no institution elected by more people in free elections than the Sejm.” — Siwiec Responds to Cenckiewicz
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