state of play: 04/27/2024
POLITICAL GAME: Kondzińska: Kurski Performed Worst in PiS Polls, Romaszewska: TVP Leadership Composed of Former SLD Members, Szczęśniak: Biedroń Feared Olko, Will Be Held Accountable for Not Resigning His Mandate in Favor of Prof. Płatek
-- SATURDAY'S POLITICAL AGENDA: LEFT'S EURO-CONVENTION AND PIS CONFERENCE ON CHANGES TO EU TREATIES - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/27/
-- TURNOUT MAY REACH, FOR EXAMPLE, 30 PERCENT - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “However, the situation then was diametrically different than it is today. The European elections were held before the parliamentary elections and were a kind of prelude to the crucial autumn vote. Now, domestic emotions have subsided, as shown by the local government elections, so mobilization may be lower. Turnout may reach, for example, 30 percent.”
-- IT WILL BE A DUEL OF HARD ELECTORATES. AND IN THE CASE OF PIS, IT IS THE LARGEST, AND IT IS DETERMINED - WIELOWIEYSKA STATES: “It will be a duel of hard electorates. And in the case of PiS, it is the largest, and furthermore, it is determined to support its party in difficult times for it. Civic Coalition ranks second in this regard. Therefore, it is not surprising that both parties are betting on loud names, enjoying the greatest popularity among their most loyal supporters.”
-- THEY ARE NOT WELL-LIKED IN THE PARTY, BUT NO ONE RUSHES TO CRITICIZE SO AS NOT TO SOW DOUBT IN THE HEARTS OF PIS SUPPORTERS - WIELOWIEYSKA WRITES IN GW: “Kaczyński could not leave Kamiński and Wąsik in the lurch either; they have the status of martyrs in PiS. They are not well-liked in the party, but no one rushes to criticize them for fear of sowing doubt in the hearts of PiS supporters. When the prosecutor's office sent letters to 31 people regarding Pegasus, summoning them for questioning as witnesses, the addressees from the current ruling coalition immediately boasted about it.”
-- TUSK NEEDS LOUD NAMES ON THE LISTS TO MOBILIZE THE HARD ELECTORATE - WIELOWIEYSKA WRITES: “Meanwhile, Prime Minister Donald Tusk has decided on a risky maneuver by sending three of his important ministers to the European Parliament. The KO leader – just like Kaczyński – needs loud names on the lists to mobilize the hard electorate of the KO.”
-- KIERWIŃSKI'S START IN WARSAW MAY ALSO HIDE A TEST. TUSK WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHAT RESULT THIS MINISTER CAN ACHIEVE IN WARSAW UNDER DIFFICULT CONDITIONS - WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER IN GW: “Tusk would like to see what result this minister can achieve in Warsaw under difficult conditions. The Civic Coalition must prepare for various scenarios: if Rafał Trzaskowski were to become a candidate for President of the Republic of Poland, Tusk's party must have a ready scenario for the elections in Warsaw, which is why it is worth testing potential successors to Trzaskowski, and there is much to suggest that Kierwiński would be eager to fight for the capital. Of course, this is only one of the scenarios.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30919289,wielowieyska-kaczynski-nie-mogl-zostawic-na-lodzie-kaminskiego.html
-- THE WAVE CARRYING THE NEW COALITION IS NOT AS OVERWHELMING AS IT SEEMED, YET PIS STILL RESEMBLES A DROWNING PERSON WHO, STRUGGLING TO STAY AFLOAT, SHOUTS: "I WON!" - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “Tusk's first speeches or Sienkiewicz's statements indicate that the dominant tone will be one of wartime alarm, of threat from Russia, which is justified. The response to the threat of apocalypse will be general calls for European unity, without delving into those elements of EU policy that are particularly troublesome. However, it is easier to accuse Kaczyński of the temptation of Polexit than of conspiracies with the European Commission. Will it work? The wave carrying the new coalition is not as overwhelming as it seemed, yet PiS still resembles a drowning person who, struggling to stay afloat, shouts: 'I won!'”
-- THIS WILL TEACH OTHERS THAT THE MORE LOYAL THEY ARE IN MECHANICALLY FOLLOWING ORDERS, THE GREATER HOPES THEY CAN HAVE - ZAREMBA FURTHER WRITES: “Jarosław Kaczyński has perfected the system of treating the European Parliament as a luxury reward. For this, perhaps Tusk has developed a taste for distributing party rewards, albeit meager. After all, it will teach others that the more loyal they are in mechanically following orders, the greater hopes they can have. Kierwiński is the very embodiment of a sergeant's style in politics, thus becoming a benchmark for Tuska's entire camp.”
-- SIENKIEWICZ IS ONE OF THE FEW CANDIDATES ON THESE LISTS WHO, IF THEY WANTED TO, COULD DO REAL POLITICAL WORK IN BRUSSELS - ZAREMBA FURTHER IN RZ: “Sienkiewicz is one of the few candidates on these lists who, if they wanted to, could do real political work in Brussels. In a spirit that does not particularly appeal to me, but at least his technical side, he probably wouldn't need to be taught.”
-- THE STORY OF PROFITABLE SERGEANTISM, AND IN THE WORST POSSIBLE MANNER - ZAREMBA FURTHER IN RZ: “I would draw attention to two grotesque details. Dariusz Joński is to get the first place in the Łódź region, and Michał Szczerba further down in Warsaw. This, as in Kierwiński's case, is a story of profitable sergeantism, and in the worst possible way. Now we know why these MPs turned the two investigative committees they led into a spectacle of hate, why Joński, clearly violating the ruling of the Constitutional Tribunal from 2006 on parliamentary inquiry rules, did everything to insult Kamiński.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40242791-piotr-zaremba-sienkiewicz-wagi-ciezkiej-z-rzadu-na-unijne-salony
-- THIS CONDEMNS PIS TO THE ROLE OF A MORE OUTRAGED OBSERVER THAN A PLAYER IN THE EU - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “He might even think that politicians who are too proficient and have too many contacts begin to represent the EU to the Polish right more than the right to the EU. That's precisely what he thinks about Szymański. At the same time, this condemns PiS to the role of a more outraged observer than a player. Although, on the other hand, MEPs from other Polish groupings, who are, after all, euroenthusiasts, are also largely still statisticians.”
-- TARCZYŃSKI MANAGED TO IMPRESS KACZYŃSKI AS SOMEONE WHO IS NOT ONLY ACTIVE BUT ALSO BREAKING NEW GROUND FOR PIS - ZAREMBA WRITES IN INTERIA: “The case of pushing MEP Legutko out is interesting. He had excellent qualifications, for example, linguistic ones. But his colleagues accused him of being burnt out and passive. He was supposed to be more interested in his books on Greek philosophy than in political games, even within the European Conservatives and Reformists faction, to which PiS belongs. He was replaced by the ubiquitous MEP Dominik Tarczyński. He managed to impress Kaczyński as someone who is not only active but also breaking new ground for PiS.”
-- SIKORSKI'S EXPOSÉ, AS WELL AS THE SPEECHES OF TUSK AND SIENKIEWICZ, INDICATE THAT THE TONE OF WARTIME ALARM WILL DOMINATE - ZAREMBA WRITES: “Sikorski's exposé, as well as the speeches of Tusk and Sienkiewicz, indicate that the tone of wartime alarm, the narrative of a threat from Russia, will dominate. The response to the threat of apocalypse will be general calls for European unity, without delving into those elements of EU policy that are particularly troublesome. Certainly, another theme will emerge. Sikorski ridiculed Mateusz Morawiecki for his trip to Budapest for another conference of the eurosceptic right. He called the circles gathered there 'pro-Putin nationalists'. The former prime minister responded by reminding Tusk and Sikorski of the reset with Russia after 2007. This mutual reduction of the opponent *ad Putinum* will continue throughout the campaign.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-listy-wyborcze-gotowe-tylko-po-co-pis-owi-europarlament,nId,7475781
-- FOUR BOMBS ARE TICKING UNDER POLAND'S MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU - KONRAD SZYMAŃSKI IN RZ: “The status of a net contributor to the EU budget, Ukraine's accession, climate transformation, and the growing interdependence in the Western world are four ticking bombs under Poland's membership in the EU. They must be defused before it's too late. To do so, we need not only to organize our thinking at home, reject disinformation and propaganda, but also to gain understanding in the major Western capitals.”
-- EFFECTIVELY GLUING TOGETHER THE FAILED AND OFTEN PROVOCATIVE JUSTICE SYSTEM REFORMS OF ZBIGNIEW ZIOBRO WITH SOVEREIGNTY SETS THE RIGHT-WING A FALSE ALTERNATIVE – EITHER SOVEREIGNTY, OR THE EU - SZYMAŃSKI FURTHER IN RZ: “Effectively gluing together the failed and often provocative justice system reforms of Zbigniew Ziobro with sovereignty sets the right-wing a false alternative – either sovereignty, or the EU. The polarizing potential of the dispute over the rule of law may push Donald Tusk's government into such overzealousness in coordinating this matter with Brussels that the impression of this false alternative may intensify. Therefore, defusing this topic requires imagination and strategic communication from both the government and the European Commission.”
-- SOCIAL SUPPORT FOR POLISH MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN FOR GRANTED OR AS PERMANENT - SZYMAŃSKI FURTHER IN RZ: “Social support for Polish membership in the EU should not be taken for granted or as permanent. This is due to the uncertainty engulfing the entire West as a result of numerous crises and changes in the global trade and political order. We are part of this world. Therefore, we feel similar fears. The EU – for years perceived by us as political anesthesiology – does not exempt anyone from calculations and the effort of shaping their own destiny. Its role in public governance will, however, grow due to the increasing complexity and interdependence of today's world – between economies, states, in the digital sphere, environment, climate, or health.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art40243901-konrad-szymanski-cztery-bomby-tykaja-pod-czlonkostwem-polski-w-ue
-- "KURSKI PERFORMED WORST IN THE POLLS," WHICH "SURPRISED EVERYONE" - A PIS POLITICIAN TO AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “- In addition, we commissioned polls to check the potential of the most sensitive candidates, namely Kurski, Wąsik, Kamiński, and Obajtek - says a PiS MP. He adds that 'Kurski performed the worst in them,' which 'surprised everyone.'”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30924134,komitet-polityczny-pis-zaakceptowal-listy-do-europarlamentu.html
-- FOR RAZEM, THIS IS TO BE ANOTHER STEP IN DEVELOPMENT - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO PRESS: “Why was the Together party so keen on this top spot? According to politicians of this party, with whom we spoke, it is not just about Maciej Konieczny's personal commitment to international affairs. 'We are counting on a seat that guarantees a mandate,' said a member of Razem's leadership. Our interlocutors claim that Razem was not attached to Silesia; the point was a position that would guarantee a mandate. For Razem, this is to be another step in its development: 'It's time to have an MEP.' At the same time, the leadership of New Left's goal was for the Razem party to be as actively involved as possible in the European Parliament campaign. If Razem did not field its popular politicians, it could 'give up' this campaign.”
-- BIEDROŃ WILL HAVE TO FACE THE ACCUSATION THAT IN 2019 HE DID NOT RESIGN HIS MANDATE IN FAVOR OF PROF. MONIKA PŁATEK - SZCZĘŚNIAK FURTHER IN OKO: “Biedroń will likely have to face the accusation that in 2019 he did not resign his mandate in favor of Prof. Monika Płatek (although he promised to do so) and went to Brussels himself. This could also give a bonus to the first woman on the list. Provided she was very involved in the campaign and known to a significant portion of voters. Biedroń has a terrible result in the 2020 presidential elections (2.22 percent) to his name. At the same time, he remains one of the most recognizable politicians of the Left.”
https://oko.press/wybory-do-parlamentu-europejskiego-lewica-zdecydowala-kto-wystartuje
-- THEY DISCUSSED THE MATTER OF THE GREAT ORCHESTRA OF CHRISTMAS CHARITY: HOW TO CONTRIVE NOT TO MENTION IT ON AIR AT ALL, PACZUSKA, THEN HEAD OF "WIADOMOŚCI," PROTESTED - AGNIESZKA ROMASZEWSKA IN A CONVERSATION WITH DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Plans for how the television should look were to be hatched there. I attended these Monday meetings three times; the fourth time, they didn't invite me. I remember they discussed the matter of the Great Orchestra of Christmas Charity: how to figure out how not to mention it on air at all. Marzena Paczuska, then head of "Wiadomości," protested that she couldn't do that because she would simply be laughed at. Jacek agreed, but suggested not reporting on WOŚP immediately, but the next day and briefly. Absurd.”
-- THE EFFECT WILL BE THAT PUBLIC TELEVISION WILL SHRINK IRREVOCABLY AND YIELD GROUND TO TVN. WHATEVER ONE MAY SAY ABOUT KURSKI, HE PUT THIS TELEVISION ON ITS FEET - ROMASZEWSKA FURTHER AT WIELOWIEYSKA'S: “I believe that the actions are being carried out energetically and radically, but without a plan. They are restoring some formats from prehistoric times, like '100 Questions to...'. When Iran attacked Israel, TVP Info did not switch to a live program, but showed '100 Questions to Leszek Miller' – which, in my opinion, is a disgrace. There is a dramatic lack of money, and mass transfers are being made from the headquarters of the news programs on Plac Powstańców, where completely new studios are being dismantled, and 'Wiadomości,' 'Panorama,' and TVP Info are being moved to Woronicza, where there are no – at least for now – sensible conditions for news work. The effect will be that public television will shrink irrevocably and yield ground to TVN. Whatever one may say about Kurski, he put this television on its feet, he expanded it enormously, even to excess.”
-- TVP LEADERSHIP IS COMPOSED OF PEOPLE FROM THE FORMER SLD - ROMASZEWSKA STATES AT WIELOWIEYSKA'S IN GW: “Besides, they are politically subordinate to the current authorities, they are at the mercy of the government, which can dismiss them at any moment. And they know it, so they adapt to the requirements. After all, the leadership of TVP is composed of people from the former SLD, the post-communist Ordynacka association; they have always functioned that way. Perhaps they showed Tobiasz Bocheński better because they risked nothing; they knew he wouldn't win in Warsaw anyway.”
-- KURSKI BELIEVED THAT WE, MEANING BELSAT, BROADCAST TO SOME INSIGNIFICANT PEOPLES. HE HAD NO RESPECT FOR THESE PEOPLE. HE TREATED THEM PATRONIZINGLY - ROMASZEWSKA TELLS WIELOWIEYSKA: “Jacek clearly showed his attachment to this imperial vision of Poland from sea to sea. I am very sensitive on this point because there has never been a Poland (in the sense we understand it today) from sea to sea. And the emotions that our lands remained in the east are foreign to me. I consider it an anachronism. But Jacek did not. He believed that we, meaning Belsat, broadcast to some insignificant peoples. He had no respect for these people. He treated them patronizingly.”
-- THE EXPLANATIONS OF A GROUP OF ANONYMOUS RUSSIAN VOLUNTEER SPECIALISTS, OPERATING UNDER THE PSEUDONYM FLANKER 16, ULTIMATELY CONVINCED ME THAT THERE WAS NO ACCIDENT AT SMOLENSK - ROMASZEWSKA SAYS: “The most convincing theory is what Mark Sołonin, a Russian videoblogger and prominent historian of World War II who debunked Soviet historiography myths, now in exile in Ukraine, a man endowed with outstanding precision of thought and a gift for conveying his ideas, presented some time ago. Sołonin, an aircraft design engineer by training, did not force an explanation of what happened, but took the official Russian MAK report and, point by point, dismantled its theses. In such a simple and accessible way that I always regretted that no one in Poland could do it like that, but a Russian oppositionist could. He used another report – from a group of anonymous Russian volunteer specialists operating under the pseudonym Flanker 16. It was their explanations that ultimately convinced me that there was no accident at Smolensk.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30914587,agnieszka-romaszewska-co-by-nie-powiedziec-o-kurskim-on-postawil.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Stanisław Dziwisz, Magdalena Kopka, Paweł Kasprzyk, Zbigniew Babalski, Andrzej Barcikowski, Piotr Zychowicz. SUNDAY: Marek Biernacki, Jacek Piechota, Andrzej Szejna, Mariusz-Orion Jędrysek, Konrad Gołota.
live
50 min
58 min
Kierwiński: Being Led by the Nose by a Certain Political Camp Doesn't Speak Well of the President's Independence
63 min
Kierwiński: Any Irregularity in Services Under the Ministry of Interior and Administration Will Be Burned Out with a Red-Hot Iron
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„I'd gladly assess its value.” — Żurek Questions Bogucki on Presidential Bill
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Kierwiński Hints at Further Personnel Changes within the State Protection Service
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Today We Pay Tribute to Polish Victims of Russian Crimes. Tusk Tweets from Bykivnia
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Kierwiński: Interior Ministry and Government Protection Bureau Had No Information About Threats from Any SOP Officer
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„Even the last few dozen hours show that things weren’t going well there.” — Kierwiński on the SOP Audit
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