state of play: 04/23/2024
STATE OF PLAY: Gawryluk Cannot Commit 'Yes' or 'No', Beylin: PiS Becoming a Fortress-East, RZ Poll: PiS Returns to Lead
-- RZ POLL - CIVIC COALITION NO LONGER LEADING. CHANGE AT THE TOP: “In the latest Sejm poll conducted by IBRiS for „Rzeczpospolita,” Law and Justice is in first place. Jarosław Kaczyński's party can count on 31.4% support. The poll was conducted on April 19–20, concurrently with the second round of local elections. Compared to a similar poll from March, PiS gained 1.4 percentage points. Civic Coalition had 31.9% support in March, which dropped to 28.9% in April. There are no major changes in the subsequent positions. Third Way can count on 13.5%, which is an increase compared to the March poll when the alliance of PSL and Poland 2050 – renewed for the European elections – had 10.7%. In the following positions are Lewica (8.8%) and Konfederacja (8.2%). Undecided voters in this poll account for 5.7%.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40222141-sondaz-ibris-koalicja-obywatelska-juz-nie-prowadzi-zmiana-na-pozycji-lidera
-- POLITICAL PLAN FOR TUESDAY: TUSK WITH SUNAK AND STOLTENBERG, TRZASKOWSKI TO INVITE TO THE FOURTH CAMPUS, GOVERNMENT ON SIKORSKI'S EXPOSÉ, COMMISSION ON ABORTION LAW, KAMIŃSKI FACING ANOTHER INVESTIGATIVE COMMISSION, DUDA STILL IN CANADA: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/23/polityczny-plan-wtorku-tusk-z-sunakiem-i-stoltenbergiem-trzaskowski-zaprosi-na-czwarty-campus-rzad-o-expose-sikorskiego-komisja-o-prawie-aborcyjnym-kaminski-przed-kolejna-komisja-sledcza-duda-da/
-- TOMCZYK ON LISTS FOR EP: THERE WILL BE SURPRISES, THERE WILL BE SERIOUS FIGURES – THIS IS HOW IT HAS TO BE BECAUSE WE WANT TO WIN THESE ELECTIONS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/23/
-- I AM UNABLE TO MAKE A "YES" OR "NO" DECLARATION – DOROTA GAWRYLUK ASKED BY ANNA KALITA ON GAZETA.PL ABOUT POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL RUN: “The whole problem is that today I am being asked for a clear declaration of "yes" or "no," while I am unable to make one, not only regarding this issue but also my plans. Who knows what the future will bring. Perhaps in a few years, the situation will require me to pilot fighter jets? I treated the media reports about my presidential run as a joke, but it is true that many people took the matter very seriously.”
-- I CANNOT BELIEVE NO ONE APPRECIATED THE WORK OF ALL THOSE PEOPLE WHO BUILT THE POWER OF THE PRL FOR YEARS – GAWRYLUK ON KALITA'S STATEMENT ABOUT STATE-OWNED FARMS (PGRs): “Undeniably! It was pure evil. I cannot believe that no one appreciated the work of all those people who built the power of the PRL for years. The debt to them has not been repaid to this day.”
-- IT MUST BE HONESTLY SAID THAT A REVOLUTION TOOK PLACE IN THE PRL: EDUCATION WAS MADE UNIVERSAL, THE PATH TO UNIVERSITIES WAS OPENED FOR ALL CITIZENS, SOCIAL ADVANCEMENT BECAME POSSIBLE – DOROTA GAWRYLUK CONTINUES WITH ANNA KALITA: “Regarding the leveling of social inequalities, it must be honestly said that a revolution took place in the PRL: education was made universal, the path to universities was opened for all citizens, and social advancement became possible. These are my views, and I ask why they must be confined to narrow "left-wing–right-wing" boxes? It is something more. What we are discussing shows what kind of people we are.”
-- I BELIEVE THAT EVERY CASE OF AN UNWANTED PREGNANCY SHOULD BE CONSIDERED INDIVIDUALLY. THERE ARE TRAGEDIES WE CANNOT EVEN IMAGINE – DOROTA GAWRYLUK CONTINUES WITH ANNA KALITA ON GAZETA.PL: “When does a person begin? If we assume at 12, 13, or 15 weeks of pregnancy, why am I listening at a six-week ultrasound about my daughter's heart beating? But I will also never agree to call women who participated in the Black Marches "murderers," or to claim that all abortion supporters are bad people who want to "kill children." I do not agree with such an aggressive narrative. I also believe that every case of an unwanted pregnancy should be considered individually. There are tragedies we cannot even imagine, and the state cannot then strip doctors of their dignity and agency. A doctor must fight for the woman's life until the end. There are situations beyond our control, and then abortion comes into play, but it should be the doctor who decides. Along with the woman, of course.”
https://weekend.gazeta.pl/weekend/7,177333,30901989,gawryluk-jestem-feministka.html
-- SIENKIEWICZ'S START IS ALMOST CERTAIN, BUDKA IS POSSIBLE, AND LESZCZYNA'S NAME ALSO APPEARS IN THE CORRIDORS – PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ ON GAZETA.PL: “The final names of ministers from Civic Coalition will only be known after Wednesday's meeting of PO's board and its National Council. It is already known today that Minister of Culture Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz's start is almost certain, Minister of State Assets Borys Budka's is possible, and Izabela Leszczyna's name also appears in the corridors, although she herself categorically denies her participation.”
https://jedennewsdziennie.pl/article/231
-- SCHEURING-WIELGUS TO HEAD THE LEWICA LIST IN WIELKOPOLSKA – TOMASZ NYCZKA IN GW: “The idea is for the Lewica list in the Poznań district no. 7, which covers the entire voivodeship, to be opened by MP from Toruń Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus, one of Lewica's brightest stars, the party's deputy leader, and deputy minister of culture. The party has just announced that Scheuring-Wielgus will be responsible for communication in the campaign headquarters. She is also being considered for a run for the European Parliament from Poznań.”
-- LEWICA MP COUNTERS SCHEURING-WIELGUS'S START FROM WIELKOPOLSKA – CONTINUED IN NYCZKA IN GW: “However, MP Ueberhan does not like the scenario of her running from a district other than Poznań. - Everyone should run from where they ran before, where they achieved results. So, if Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus won a Sejm seat from Kuyavian-Pomeranian, why shouldn't she take a seat in the European Parliament from there – Katarzyna Ueberhan tells 'Wyborcza'.”
https://poznan.wyborcza.pl/poznan/7,36001,30902764,ukladanka-przed-eurowyborami-gwiazda-lewicy-z-poznania-poznanska.html
-- TUSK, SHAKEN BY THE RESULTS OF THE REGIONAL ELECTIONS, ANNOUNCES A TRIUMPH. BUT THIS IS NOT THE TRUE AND FULL PICTURE – MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “This scale of effort won't be repeated a second time. They ran around, traveled, blabbered about the need to politically finish off PiS – they didn't finish them off, nobody listened to them. Besides, it's natural, because how many times can you fool young people with a dorm room for a zloty, entrepreneurs with voluntary ZUS, drivers with fuel at 5.19? No government has so quickly become a company of such brazen cheats in the eyes of ordinary people after an election. This government is afraid of this truth; this fear is visible in the eyes of Tusk and others.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/689351-ten-strach-widac-w-oczach-tuska-i-innych
-- WASSERMANN DECIDED WHO WON IN KRAKOW. "SHE CAUSED A STIR IN PIŚ" – JACEK GĄDEK ON GAZETA.PL: “Elections in Krakow. The fact that Aleksander Miszalski from Civic Coalition was elected mayor, not Łukasz Gibała, was partly decided by the vote of PiS MP Małgorzata Wassermann. - She caused a stir in PiS. Our campaign direction was: "anything but Civic Coalition" – says a PiS politician. (...) The difference between them is only 5,434 votes. For comparison: in 2023, Wassermann received 125,786 votes. (...) Another politician from the PiS camp: - She handed Miszalski the victory. This will probably affect her own result in Krakow in the next Sejm elections.”
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30909156,malgorzata-wassermann-przesadzila-kto-wygral-w-krakowie-wywolala.html
-- PIŚ IS TRANSFORMING FROM A TOP NATIONAL FORMATION INTO AN INCREASINGLY REGIONAL PARTY. A FORTRESS-EAST WHOSE DEFENSES ARE CRUMBLING – MAREK BEYLIN ON GW: “PiS is thus increasingly transforming from a leading national formation into a regional party. A Fortress-East whose defensive walls are crumbling. In this state, there is no chance of regaining power, unless the Coalition of October 15 suddenly collapses, which, despite internal tensions within the ruling camp, is unlikely.”
-- KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY WILL THUS REMAIN A BESIEGED FORTRESS FOR SOME TIME – BEYLIN CONTINUES ON GW: ‘Kaczyński's party will thus remain a besieged fortress for some time. It still has a pool of local government positions for its cadres and has a president who, through vetoes and declarations, wants to maintain at least part of the former PiS state. Andrzej Duda is thus protecting his party by taking on the role of deputy to Kaczyński. This sustains the hope of the party apparatus and some of its voters for a successful battle for power in the future. At least for another PiS presidency, around which the party could regain its strength.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30909422,wybory-samorzadowe-2024-pis-slabnie-i-przesuwa-sie-na-wschod.html
-- CIVIC COALITION WON IN CITIES, BUT HAS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT BEFORE THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON RZ: “Only very decided voters went to the polls. But both PO's coalition partners and Donald Tusk's party itself, like PiS and Konfederacja, will have to consider another important factor: declining mobilization. A turnout of just over 44% in the second round means that only very decided voters went to the polls. The hesitant, moderate ones stayed home, seeing no reason to go to the polling station.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40223421-michal-szuldrzynski-gorzka-pigulka-wyborcza
-- SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PEOPLE VOTE IN LOCAL ELECTIONS THAN IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS – ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI ON GW: “The truth is also that slightly different people vote in local elections than in parliamentary elections. According to an exit poll conducted by Ipsos, turnout dropped the most among the youngest voters (18-29 years old) – by as much as 44%. I tried to assign weights to the results in individual age groups according to the turnout in the October 15 elections, and it turned out that the result for all voters practically did not differ from what the National Electoral Commission (PKW) reported.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30909671,analiza-glosowania-do-sejmikow-czyich-wyborcow-zabraklo.html
-- ERASING INVESTMENT AND DEVELOPMENT, AMBITIONS AND NATIONAL PRIDE, SECURITY AND SOVEREIGNTY – MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Erasing, crossing out – these words have been used almost daily since December 13. The government cuts with an axe, often a saw, sometimes a scalpel, but it is consistent. With some masochistic pleasure, they inform their voters about what they have cut again, what Poland will not build, what they will give up, what we will say goodbye to. There will be no CPK (Central Communication Port), no nuclear power, no truly strong army, no list of required readings conveying the Polish cultural code, beautiful museums, cultural institutions. Etc., etc. Entire industries are being scrapped, powerful plants are winding down production. Again, supposedly there is no money for anything. It will only be for German windmills and heat pumps (Germany no longer has Russian gas, so gas is no longer ecological).”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/689434-skreslanie-polski-to-istota-tych-rzadow
-- THE LOW PARTICIPATION IN LOCAL DEMOCRACY STEMS FROM ARCHAIC VOTING PRINCIPLES AND AN UNINSPIRING ELECTION CAMPAIGN – AGNIESZKA WIŚNIEWSKA ON KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Local elections are by their nature easier for people deeply connected to their local communities. However, this will inevitably become increasingly rare. Integration and social ties are possible thanks to technological development regardless of distance, and the work and personal lives of young people will increasingly require mobility. I think it is necessary to facilitate voter registration in new places, online and without additional formalities. An information campaign is also necessary so that everyone who wants to has the opportunity to take advantage of this possibility.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/dlaczego-mlodzi-nie-poszli-na-wybory-powody-sa-przyziemne/
-- BIRTHDAYS: Anda Rottenberg, Anna Kalczyńska-Maciejowska, Jakub Bodziony.
live
46 min
54 min
Kierwiński: Being Led by the Nose by a Certain Political Camp Doesn't Speak Well of the President's Independence
59 min
Kierwiński: Any Irregularity in Services Under the Ministry of Interior and Administration Will Be Burned Out with a Red-Hot Iron
60 min
„I'd gladly assess its value.” — Żurek Questions Bogucki on Presidential Bill
70 min
Kierwiński Hints at Further Personnel Changes within the State Protection Service
3 hours
Today We Pay Tribute to Polish Victims of Russian Crimes. Tusk Tweets from Bykivnia
4 hours
Kierwiński: Interior Ministry and Government Protection Bureau Had No Information About Threats from Any SOP Officer
4 hours
„Even the last few dozen hours show that things weren’t going well there.” — Kierwiński on the SOP Audit
4 hours
„I couldn't dismiss him because it requires the president's consent, and that wasn't given.” — Kierwiński on the suspension of the Head of the State Protection Service
4 hours
„There is no institution elected by more people in free elections than the Sejm.” — Siwiec Responds to Cenckiewicz
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