state of play: 04/18/2024

STATE OF PLAY: GW Poll Shows Giant Lead for Civic Candidate in Gdynia, Kalukin: The Systematic Disappearance of The Left Could Reach Critical Mass, Leading to a Panic Exodus to Civic Platform

Łukasz Mężyk

-- DUDA-TRUMP DINNER IN NYC. MASTALEREK: FRIENDLY ATMOSPHERE. EXCELLENT CONVERSATION: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/18/kolacja-duda-trump-w-nyc-mastalerek-przyjacielska-atmosfera-doskonala-rozmowa/ -- TRUMP VS. BIDEN CLASH WILL BE POLISH PRIMARIES. BUT THE PRICE WILL BE HIGH - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ: “Donald Tusk’s unequivocal support for Joe Biden means that the fight for the White House, which will unfold six months before the Polish presidential election, will become a kind of primary for our country. If Donald Trump wins, PiS will consider that Jarosław Kaczyński’s party is also riding the wave on the Vistula. If Joe Biden wins, Civic Platform will see it as confirmation that by saving democracy, Poles are on the right side of history. But the price for Poland’s relations with the USA could be high.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40185631-jedrzej-bielecki-starcie-trumpa-z-bidenem-bedzie-polskimi-prawyborami-ale-cena-tego-bedzie-wysoka -- GIANT LEAD FOR INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE IN GDYNIA IN OPINIA24 POLL FOR GW: “According to the poll, among Gdynia residents who have already decided on their preferences, as many as 68% intend to support Aleksandra Kosiorek in the second round – the candidate for the Gdynia Dialogue, an independent community activist and legal advisor, co-organizer of the Women's Strikes and protests in front of the courts in Gdynia. This would mean that Kosiorek would win both the first and second rounds of the election, having managed to double her electorate in the meantime (she received 34.43% of the votes in the first round).” https://trojmiasto.wyborcza.pl/trojmiasto/7,35612,30896128,sondaz-wyborczej-przed-druga-tura-w-gdyni-jest-zdecydowany.html -- FRASYNIUK SUPPORTS SUTRYK - AS HE SAYS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH BEATA MACIEJEWSKA IN LOCAL GW: “Władysław Frasyniuk: – This is a time when decisions must be made, not heads buried in the sand. The poll is worrying from the perspective of Wrocław, its traditions and values. The candidate who represents a conservative-right-wing party and who is increasingly surrounded by politicians and voters from right-wing groups is a negation of Wrocław’s liberal-democratic traditions, developed by August ’80 and subsequent presidents. Wrocław has been and is perceived as an open, tolerant, and friendly city for everyone. This is a value that distinguishes us on the map of Poland and Europe.” https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,30895321,frasyniuk-po-sondazu-wyborczej-wyniki-przed-ii-tura-sa-dla.html -- POLITICAL SCHEDULE FOR THURSDAY: TUSK AT THE RE SUMMIT, DUDA STILL IN THE USA, KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ AND HOŁOWNIA SUPPORTING BODNAR, MORAWIECKI IN GLIWICE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/18/ -- THE SPECTER OF WAR LOOMS OVER EUROPE - BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI IN GW: “The good times are over. We must be prepared. Not only for war, but for Russian hybrid or cyber attacks. An open conflict with Russia could concern energy sources, it could take place in the Arctic or in space.” https://wyborcza.pl/AkcjeSpecjalne/7,191950,30889155,nad-europa-zawislo-widmo-wojny.html -- THE JOKE THAT POLES WOULD ACCEPT A SIGNIFICANT PART OF PiS'S POLICY, AS LONG AS IT'S NOT CONDUCTED BY PiS, TUSK HAS FOLLOWED THE PATH OF THIS JOKE IN MANY AREAS OF HIS POLICY - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Even during the United Right’s rule, a bitter joke circulated in their circles (from Kaczyński’s perspective) that Poles would accept a significant part of PiS’s policy, as long as it wasn’t conducted by PiS, whose leaders were increasingly associated with actual immaturity, ineffectiveness, masked by brutality and radical language. Tusk has followed the path of this joke in many areas of his policy.” -- ON THE CIVIC PLATFORM SIDE, RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI WON SLIGHTLY MORE THAN DONALD TUSK - CONTINUED BY CEZARY MICHALSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Tusk’s future is determined today by the coalition’s result in the first round of local government elections. While Leszek Miller’s joke that ‘everyone won these elections except Czarzasty’ is generally accurate, the truth is, of course, nuanced. For example, on the Civic Platform side, Rafał Trzaskowski won slightly more than Donald Tusk. Since there was no ‘passing’ of PiS in these elections, Tusk had to somewhat cover his success with Trzaskowski’s at the election night event. At the same time, however, he bestowed one of his typical, slightly poisoned compliments upon the Mayor of Warsaw. Calling him the ‘leader of democratic Poland...’, but ‘...local government.’” -- IN CIVIC PLATFORM, IT IS SAID THAT APART FROM THE PRESIDENTIAL PLAN B OF RUNNING HIMSELF IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, TUSK ALSO HAS PLANS C, WHICH ARE TO PROPOSE RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI OR ADAM BODNAR AS CIVIC PLATFORM CANDIDATES - CONTINUED BY MICHALSKI: “If the leaders of PSL have trouble with this offer, it is only because – as a cautious agrarian told me – ‘Donald Tusk hugs so tightly that he can suffocate.’ In Civic Platform, it is said that apart from the presidential plan B of running himself in the presidential elections, Tusk also has plans C, which are to propose Radosław Sikorski or Adam Bodnar as Civic Platform candidates.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2252895,1,strestest-tuska-po-wyborach-ma-problem-z-ktorym-musi-sie-bardzo-szybko-zmierzyc.read -- ANOTHER LEFT CONGRESS. IT IS STUCK IN A TRAP, FACING BAD AND EVEN WORSE SCENARIOS - RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The Left, battered in successive elections, already knows that it is spinning its wheels and at best faces further drift. But it will continue to spin, as it only has bad and even worse scenarios to choose from.” -- TODAY, WLODZIMIERZ CZARZASTY CARES MOST ABOUT NURTURING FRIENDLY RELATIONS WITHIN THE ENTIRE COALITION - CONTINUED BY KALUKIN: “After the elections, the desire to give away lucrative positions to partners for a pittance in the name of good relations decreases. The Left is rather aware of this, so it does not expect gifts. Moreover, today Włodzimierz Czarzasty cares most about nurturing friendly relations within the entire coalition. This means that he himself does not intend to open tough negotiations. Although theoretically, he could put the matter to a knife-edge and play his golden card in the regional assembly of Łódź, demanding that Tusk include it at the table in the distribution of positions in the West Pomeranian region.” -- ABORTION WILL NOT BECOME A PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT POLITICAL FUEL IN THE NEAR FUTURE; THE MAJORITY OF VOTERS HAVE LIKELY SENSED ITS FALSEHOOD, ITS INAPPLICABILITY TO THE SPECIFICS OF LOCAL ELECTIONS - CONTINUED BY KALUKIN: “However, abortion will not become a particularly important political fuel in the near future. All four bills passed to the parliamentary committee will likely get stuck there for long months and are unlikely to leave it before the presidential elections. Then, perhaps, with better results for the Left than recently. In the local government campaign, however, it was an exceptionally misguided investment. The majority of voters have likely sensed its falsehood, its inapplicability to the specifics of local elections, and the illusory hope for a swift resolution in a situation of a sharp political stalemate.” -- THE SYSTEMATIC DISAPPEARANCE OF THE LEFT MAY REACH CRITICAL MASS, AND THEN NOTHING WILL STOP THE PANIC EXODUS TO CIVIC PLATFORM - CONTINUED BY KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “However, while Czarzasty has so far mostly found understanding within his formation for his conciliatory stance, doubts have begun to emerge after the local government fiasco. It is now clearly visible that the path indicated by the leader no longer guarantees even stagnation. The systematic disappearance of the Left may, at some point, reach critical mass, and then nothing will stop divisive actions or a panic exodus to Civic Platform.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2252897,1,kolejny-zjazd-lewicy-tkwi-w-pulapce-a-przed-nia-scenariusze-zle-i-jeszcze-gorsze.read -- FOR THE RULING COALITION, THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS PROMISE TO BE EASY, WHICH AUTOMATICALLY RAISES THE BAR - MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “For the ruling coalition, the European elections promise to be easy, which automatically raises the bar. On the one hand, the European significance and leadership of Donald Tusk – evident in the recent series of visits by numerous EU country leaders to Warsaw. On the other hand, ‘securing’ funds from the KPO, fulfilling one of the flagship promises from before October 15th. All this creates an atmosphere of a good result.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40187161-michal-kolanko-kampania-europejska-kogo-tym-razem-zabija-nadmierne-oczekiwania -- IN THE PODKARPACKIE CONSTITUENCY, FORMER ORLEN CEO DANIEL OBAJTEK HAS BEEN GUARANTEED THE "NUMBER ONE" SPOT BY PIS, AND FORMER TVP CEO JACEK KURSKI IS ALSO SAID TO BE RUNNING FROM THERE - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN GAZETA.PL. -- SZCZERBA HIGH ON THE LIST IN WARSAW - CONTINUED BY ŚMIŁOWICZ: “It is almost certain that in Warsaw, Civic Platform will put MEP Andrzej Halicki first on the list, although Michał Szczerba may also be high up if he decides to run. In PiS, there is a competition for the 'number one' spot between Jacek Saryusz-Wolski and Małgorzata Gosiewska.” -- SIENKIEWICZ VS. SZYDŁO - CONTINUED BY ŚMIŁOWICZ: “In the Małopolska-Świętokrzyskie constituency, former Prime Minister Beata Szydło is to open the PiS list, while the current Minister of Culture, Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz, will open the Civic Platform list. In Third Way, there is competition for the top spot between two MEPs – Róża Thun from Poland 2050 and Adam Jarubas from PSL. The Left is fielding Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrzej Szejna there, and Confederation is fielding MP Konrad Berkowicz.” -- ŚMIŁOWICZ CONFIRMS WĄSIK AND KAMIŃSKI ARE RUNNING: “It is also known that Mariusz Kamiński and Maciej Wąsik will run for PiS. The former will run either from the first position in the Lublin constituency or in Wielkopolska, and the latter most likely in the Mazovian constituency.” https://jedennewsdziennie.pl/article/228 -- GRODZKI IS TO RUN FOR THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT BUT FROM A DIFFERENT CONSTITUENCY THAN ARŁUKOWICZ - JOLANTA KOWALEWSKA IN GW: “– Senator Grodzki has gained great recognition. However, on the West Pomeranian-Lubusz list, he would probably only take third place, as second place would likely go to a representative from Lubusz, Elżbieta Polak, an MP and former marshal of Lubusz. That is why I recommended to the national board that Tomasz Grodzki should strengthen another constituency and be the 'number one' there – says Geblewicz. – Grodzki has a good chance of being the number one in another constituency, as strong names are needed – another PO politician tells 'Wyborcza'.” https://szczecin.wyborcza.pl/szczecin/7,34939,30897383,arlukowicz-i-grodzki-lokomotywami-list-do-europarlamentu-jest.html -- TWO PROSECUTORS REVEAL THE BEHIND-THE-SCENES PRESSURE IN THE GIERTYCH CASE - PIOTR ŻYTNICKI IN GW: “When Ziobro heard at a meeting that the prosecutor from Wrocław was not eager to file charges against Giertych, he said goodbye and left. Kaleciński continued the conversation with Barski. 'I remember Barski making a statement: "This is weak," which I took as his assessment that the material and these findings were so uncertain that they offered no chance of success if they proceeded to the next stage of the investigation,' Kaleciński now testifies.” https://poznan.wyborcza.pl/poznan/7,36001,30896128,dwoch-prokuratorow-obciazylo-zeznaniami-ziobre-i-jego-ludzi.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Jan Rulewski.

Łukasz Mężyk