state of play: 04/17/2024

POLITICAL GAME: Szułdrzyński: Duda's relations with Trump could prove useful to Poland in a critical moment, Kuisz: Thousands of dead Ukrainians still don't make enough of an impression on Western allies, Czaputowicz: Germany is rebuilding Mariupol for the

Łukasz Mężyk

-- IRAN'S ATTACK ON ISRAEL GIVES HOPE TO UKRAINE, JACEK CZAPUTOWICZ IN RZ: “Paradoxically, Iran's attack on Israel gives hope to Ukrainians. If it leads to the unblocking of American aid for Ukraine, it will be proof that the consequences of armed actions are unpredictable.” -- GERMAN COMPANIES – KNAUF AND WKB SYSTEMS – ARE PARTICIPATING IN THE RECONSTRUCTION OF MARIUPOL AT THE REQUEST OF THE RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENCE – CZAPUTOWICZ CONTINUES: “We remember well the bombing of the theatre in Mariupol, which killed 300 civilians seeking shelter there. This attack was rightly recognized as a war crime. Shortly thereafter, Mariupol was annexed by Russia, which plans to resettle 300,000 of its citizens to the city. They need to live somewhere, and many buildings have been destroyed. And here come German companies – Knauf and WKB Systems – which, at the request of the Russian Ministry of Defence, are participating in the city's reconstruction. In Poland, the cooperation of our companies with the Russian occupier in territories legally belonging to Ukraine would likely cause a political earthquake. But not in Germany!” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40177371-jacek-czaputowicz-atak-iranu-na-izrael-daje-nadzieje-ukrainie -- IF THE USA, GREAT BRITAIN, FRANCE, EVEN JORDAN, ALONG WITH ISRAEL, WERE ABLE TO SHOOT DOWN ALMOST ALL OBJECTS, ALMOST 99 PERCENT, WHY IS THE POPULATION OF UKRAINE NOT PROTECTED IN THE SAME WAY? - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN INTERIA: “A British politician gave another reason: 'it would create a risk of escalation and the outbreak of a full-scale war.' I cite these words just in case someone has forgotten that this argument about escalation is still in circulation. These words sound as if London is deciding the intensity of the Ukrainian war. Someone might say that this is nonsense for the mass media. A fair point. Nevertheless, Cameron and many other politicians seem to a certain extent to believe that they are deciding about escalation, not President Putin. So this would be as much deceiving us as deceiving themselves – with a clear purpose: to gain international prestige (incidentally, they have been gaining international prestige in various ways in recent days, for example, President Emmanuel Macron explained that the French armed forces neutralized Iranian missiles at the request of Jordan).” -- PERHAPS THIS IS A DRASTIC STATEMENT OF THE MATTER, BUT THE TRUTH IS THAT THOUSANDS OF DEAD UKRAINIANS STILL DO NOT MAKE ENOUGH OF AN IMPRESSION ON WESTERN ALLIES - KUISZ CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “Perhaps this is a drastic statement of the matter, but the truth is that thousands of dead Ukrainians still do not make enough of an impression on Western allies. On the same allies who, in the 90s, in exchange for Kyiv relinquishing its nuclear warheads, guaranteed the inviolability of Ukrainian borders. This is a painful conclusion, but it is heard from Ukrainian friends. If they had not given up their nuclear weapons then, or at least not entirely, perhaps an iron dome like in Israel would not be needed today. Perhaps Russian aggression would not have happened at all, and if it had, Kyiv would also have had something to say about the potential escalation of the war.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-dwie-rozne-wojny,nId,7454864 -- SUTRYK IS GAINING, BUT CAN STILLNOT BE SURE OF VICTORY - ACCORDING TO A POLL CONDUCTED FOR GW BY THE OPINIA 24 AGENCY: “It seems that part of the voters, including a considerable percentage who voted for Bodnar in the first round, have bought into his promises. According to a poll by Pracownia Opinia 24, Sutryk has now increased his lead over Bodnar to 7 points. 35% of respondents declare their vote for him, while 28% for Bodnar. However, 37% are still hesitating about whom to support between the two. (...) But if we consider only decided voters, then Sutryk is clearly pulling away from Bodnar, winning 56:44.” https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,30892897,sondaz-wyborczej-jacek-sutryk-blizej-wygranej-z-izabela.html -- THE "START UP" PROGRAM, OR CHAOS IN THE HOUSING MARKET. AND THE MINISTERS ARE ALREADY PACKING THEIR BAGS - ANETA GAWRONSKA IN RZ: “The government is accelerating work on the 'Na start' cheap loan program. Clients and sellers are pondering what strategies to adopt. Should they decide on transactions today, or wait for subsidies? Developers are adding fuel to the fire, preparing offers for program beneficiaries. Meanwhile, its creators, the heads of the Ministry of Development and Technology, Krzysztof Hetman and Krzysztof Kukucki, are preparing for departure. The former is running for the European Parliament elections, the latter will fight for the office of mayor of Włocławek on Sunday, April 21 (he made it to the second round). The chaos in the housing market may therefore deepen.” https://www.rp.pl/nieruchomosci/art40177821-program-na-start-czyli-chaos-na-rynku-mieszkan-a-ministrowie-pakuja-juz-walizki -- ANYTHING ABOVE THESE 19 SEATS WILL BE A SUCCESS; BELOW – A FAILURE – A LONG-TIME POLITICIAN OF LAW AND JUSTICE IN A CONVERSATION WITH INTERIA – WITH KAMILA BARANOWSKA AND ŁUKASZ ROGOSZ: “Our interlocutors indicate that current polls give PiS between 15 and 21 seats. This is little compared to the 27 seats PiS secured after the 2019 elections. Losses are inevitable. Politicians from the largest opposition party also recall that in 2014, the party won 19 seats in the European Parliament, exactly the same as Civic Platform. The number 19 is not mentioned incidentally in this context. – Now, anything above these 19 seats will be a success; below – a failure. It will certainly be harder than in the past, because besides us, there are four more parties to divide the seats among – predicts one of the long-time party politicians.” -- IN PIS, THERE IS GENERALLY AGREEMENT THAT A CALM CAMPAIGN YIELDS BETTER RESULTS THAN AN AGGRESSIVE ONE – BARANOWSKA AND ROGOSZ CONTINUE: “Here we return to the dilemma considered in PiS: should we opt for a mild campaign, which led to victory in April, or a sharp one, because the most loyal electorate needs to be driven to the polls? In PiS, there is generally agreement that a calm campaign yields better results than an aggressive one, but on the other hand, one can hear that European elections have a different specificity than local government elections and will require the party to adopt a sharper course.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/raport-wybory-do-parlamentu-europejskiego-2024/news-trzy-nazwiska-spedzaja-sen-z-powiek-prezesowi-moga-polozyc-k,nId,7454976 -- IF "SECURITY, YOU FOOL" IS TO BE OUR MOTTO, DUDA'S GOOD RELATIONS WITH TRUMP MAY PROVE USEFUL TO POLAND IN A CRITICAL MOMENT – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Although if Trump actually becomes president, paradoxically, it might be convenient for Tusk to have Duda as an intermediary in relations with the new-old host of the White House for another six months (the new US president will take office in January 2025). Some will call it playing good cop, bad cop, others playing multiple pianos at once. Well, if 'Security, you fool' is to be our motto, Duda's good relations with Trump may prove useful to Poland in a critical moment.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40179651-michal-szuldrzynski-rada-ministrow-plus-czyli-bezpieczenstwo-glupcze -- THE FACT THAT PRESIDENT ANDRZEJ DUDA WILL MEET WITH DONALD TRUMP TODAY, ALBEIT IN A MORE PRIVATE, RATHER THAN OFFICIAL CAPACITY, SHOULD NOT CONSTITUTE A PROBLEM IN RELATIONS WITH JOE BIDEN IN ANY WAY – SAID DEPUTY MINISTER OF DEFENCE PAWEŁ ZALEWSKI IN A CONVERSATION WITH RMF FM. https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40183341-wiceminister-obrony-chwali-pomysl-spotkania-andrzeja-dudy-z-donaldem-trumpem -- A PILGRIMAGE OF THE POLISH PRESIDENT TO DONALD TRUMP WOULD BE HARMFUL AND DANGEROUS. IT WILL HARM POLAND, AND WILL NOT HELP ANDRZEJ DUDA IN ANYTHING – BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI IN GW: “Duda's meeting with Trump will be a slap in the face to the administration of the incumbent President Joe Biden, and Americans will be able to do much more, and they don't need to figure out who is who in Poland to do so.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,30893224,spotkanie-dudy-z-trumpem-bedzie-policzkiem-dla-administracji.html -- WHEN ASKED ABOUT SUCH A POSSIBILITY, US STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESPERSON MATTHEW MILLER POINTED OUT THAT CONTACTS BETWEEN FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS AND CANDIDATES FROM MAJOR US PRESIDENTIAL PARTIES IS A PRACTICE FOLLOWED FOR MANY YEARS. https://tvn24.pl/swiat/andrzej-duda-donald-trump-czy-dojdzie-do-spotkania-rzecznik-departamentu-stanu-usa-komentuje-st7873166 -- IN 3.5 YEARS' TIME, IT MAY TURN OUT THAT THIS TIME THE YOUNG ELECTORATE WILL NOT VOTE FOR THE LEFT NOT BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO COME HOME FOR ELECTIONS. BUT BECAUSE THEY DON'T BELIEVE THE LEFT WILL GET ANYTHING DONE FOR THEM – GALOPUJĄCY MAJOR IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “The good news for the Left is that these elections are already in the past and more young people will probably vote in the parliamentary elections (but how many of them?). The bad news is that even a political volte-face and leaving the coalition with Tusk will hardly help the Left in the next local government elections. The Left is dependent on the young electorate, especially women. Therefore, in the short term, it should do everything to mobilize this group. At the same time, there is information that Biedroń will be the campaign manager for the European Parliament elections, Gawkowski might be a presidential candidate, and Hołownia is flushing the Left's government and parliamentary postulates down the toilet. So in 3.5 years, it may turn out that this time the young electorate will not vote for the Left not because they don't want to come home for elections. But because they don't believe the Left will get anything done for them. And then this political project may truly be at an end.” https://galopujacymajor.wordpress.com/ -- THE LEFT IS PALE INSTEAD OF BLUSHING. IT'S THE LAST MOMENT FOR CHANGES - JAN WOŹNIAK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Meanwhile, the Left, instead of blushing, is paling, and the proletarians, precarious workers, the poor, the unemployed, those without their own homes (or, for example, those who view international affairs differently) are most often left to themselves and do not go to the polls – or vote for the populist-Christian-nationalist PiS. As opinion polls show, potentially left-wing voters, including, in addition to the aforementioned, various minorities, women, and often forgotten inmates – are increasingly less likely to cast their votes for the Left. Without a clear message, supported by genuine connection with broad social groups and attention paid to their life and material needs – the Left may also eventually find itself alone, outside representative bodies of power. It's high time to wake up from sleep.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/lewica-blednie-zamiast-sie-czerwienic-to-ostatni-moment-na-zmiany-list/ -- PRODUCTION IN POLAND IS BECOMING UNPROFITABLE. ONE OF THE IMPORTANT COMPETITIVE FACTORS OF OUR ECONOMY IS DISAPPEARING. MOREOVER, THE RULING TEAM, CONTROLLED BY IDEOLOGICAL MADMEN, INTENDS TO IMPLEMENT FURTHER NONSENSE THAT ONLY SERVES GERMAN PRODUCERS OF FURTHER INVENTIONS - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “However, energy prices are the most important thing – Western capital, which analyzes business prospects coolly, already knows that energy prices in Poland will skyrocket. The Tusk government is abandoning the line of the Morawiecki government, which protected consumers and producers from Brussels' demands. This means that production in Poland is becoming unprofitable. One of the important competitive factors of our economy is disappearing. In addition, the ruling team, controlled by ideological madmen, intends to implement further nonsense that only serves German producers of further inventions. That's precisely why major manufacturing companies are fleeing. More precisely, they say: the Tusk regime is driving them away, acting on Berlin's demand, which wants to put a brake on Poland's development. That's why they threw all their European and German might into the elections in Poland, to support the then opposition. Now the time has come to pay the bills – Poles will pay them.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/688829-czy-tusk-na-zadanie-niemiec-niszczy-polska-gospodarke -- LESZCZYNA ON THE "DAY AFTER" PILL: IT WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM MAY 1, AS I PROMISED, WITHOUT ANY RADICAL CHANGES - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/17 -- BIRTHDAYS: Marcin Święcicki, Adam Gierek, Michał Wójcik.

Łukasz Mężyk