-- SIEMONIAK: WE ARE URGING WIDESPREAD PARTICIPATION IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS, IT WOULD BE GREAT TO RUN WITH THE PSL. ONE CAN IMAGINE CIVIC COALITION RUNNING TOGETHER WITH THE THIRD WAY - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/08/ -- PIS'S ANOTHER ASYMPTOMATIC ELECTORAL VICTORY, BUT TUSK CANNOT SLEEP PEACEFULLY - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “The largest opposition formation is still very strong after eight years in power, relinquishing it, and internal disputes. This situation has never happened in Poland before, where a grouping moving to opposition maintains such high support. (...) PiS remains strong. And yet the party has lost public media, largely positions in state-owned companies, and influence in parliament. (...) Above all, PiS has no potential coalition partner, nor a positive message for voters. But the fact is that Kaczyński’s party is still strong and has something to build upon. The specter of PiS rule still hovers over Poland.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40125021-jacek-nizinkiewicz-kolejne-bezobjawowe-zwyciestwo-wyborcze-pis-ale-tusk-nie-moze-spac-spokojnie -- TUSK FAILED TO MOBILIZE A NATIONWIDE ELECTORATE, WHILE RAFAL TRZASKOWSKI SOMEHOW (BY SOME MIRACLE?) MANAGED TO MOBILIZE - MICHAŁ PŁOCIŃSKI IN RZ: “Why didn't this happen? Donald Tusk failed to mobilize a nationwide electorate, and the local government elections were at least even – if not outright victorious for PiS, as indicated by the initial exit poll surveys. Meanwhile, Rafał Trzaskowski, somehow (by some miracle?), managed to mobilize voters in Warsaw. And it wasn't even apparent that he was making a particular effort, in all honesty. He didn't concede ground to a theoretically dangerous rival from the left, nor did he lose to good weather – and to say that Warsaw empties out on a sunny weekend is an understatement.” -- TRZASKOWSKI SIMPLY SHOWED THAT HE IS GETTING STRONGER WITH EVERY ELECTION - PŁOCIŃSKI FURTHER IN RZ: “Trzaskowski simply showed that he is getting stronger with every election and handles himself excellently even in difficult conditions. If his result were to determine his chances in next year's presidential election, the answer is unequivocal: he is an ironclad candidate for Civic Coalition's nomination for the presidential election.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40125401-michal-plocinski-w-warszawie-nokaut-rafal-trzaskowski-jeszcze-silniejszy-niz-wczesniej -- TRZASKOWSKI IS DEFINITELY STRENGTHENING HIS NATIONWIDE POSITION - PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS IN CONVERSATION WITH JACK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “He is definitely strengthening his nationwide position. Trzaskowski won in the first round with a significant margin, which increases his chances of being a candidate for president of Poland next year.” -- RUMORS OF PIS'S DEMISE ARE CERTAINLY EXAGGERATED, BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN THE PARTY ISN'T IN CRISIS - PROF. FLIS FURTHER: “Rumors of PiS's demise are certainly exaggerated, but that doesn't mean the party isn't in crisis. Kaczyński's dreams diverge from reality. Kaczyński has become more humble after the rumors of PiS's demise. The question is whether now, when he ceases to be humble because he has just achieved this result, he won't fall into a trap set by himself?” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40125521-prof-jaroslaw-flis-trzaskowski-umocnil-pozycje-i-moze-byc-kandydatem-na-prezydenta-rp -- PIS'S BIGGEST WEAKNESS REMAINS ITS COMPLETE LACK OF COALITION ABILITIES, AND THE LACK OF A SOLID BASE IN LARGE CITIES, WHICH PIS HAS SURRENDERED ALMOST WITHOUT A FIGHT THIS TIME, IS ALSO EVIDENT - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “PiS’s biggest weakness remains its complete lack of coalition abilities, which will likely result in Jarosław Kaczyński’s party losing power in most regional assemblies. The lack of a solid base for PiS in large cities, which the Law and Justice party surrendered almost without a fight this time, is also evident. A symbol of this is Warsaw, where Patryk Jaki fought fiercely for many months in 2018, and although he clearly lost to Rafał Trzaskowski, he achieved a much better result than Tobiasz Bocheński, who was nominated at the last minute and was anonymous to most voters both at the time of his candidacy announcement and on election day. In other large cities, one would also look in vain for heavyweight politicians nominated by PiS.” -- PERHAPS THE SIGNAL IS THAT SIMPLY HOLDING PIS ACCOUNTABLE SATISFIES THE HARDCORE ELECTORATE OF TODAY'S MAJORITY, BUT IT WON'T CONVINCE UNSURE VOTERS - BARTKIEWICZ FURTHER IN RZ: “For the ruling majority, the 2024 local government elections are a warning: although their results confirm that the coalition of four parties forming the government still has a mandate to govern, the results indicate a certain stagnation of this support, and they do not show a bonus for achievements to date. Perhaps this is the price for the fact that the nicely sounding promise of Civic Coalition’s 100 concrete actions in 100 days of government turned out to be merely a rhetorical device; perhaps it's the bill for the abortion dispute on the eve of the local government elections between the coalition partners, or perhaps it's a signal that simply holding PiS accountable will satisfy the hard-core electorate of today's majority, but it won't convince previously unconvinced voters. Spectacles in the form of investigative committees or decisive actions, such as the ABW entering the homes of Sovereign Poland politicians, do not broaden the electorate of the ruling majority – neither as a whole nor any of the parties forming it.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40122881-artur-bartkiewicz-wyniki-wyborow-samorzadowych-pokazuja-ze-pis-nie-powiedzial-ostatniego-slowa -- THIS TIME THERE WAS NO POLARIZATION, NO PLAYING ON EMOTIONS, AND WE HAVE A RESULT ABOVE EXPECTATIONS - SAYS ONE OF THE MPS - IN KAMILA BARANOWSKA'S ARTICLE IN INTERIA: “From conversations with PiS politicians, one can also infer that the party has a lot to think about after these elections. – It is clear that the negative campaign in the parliamentary elections was a mistake and lessons must be learned. This time there was no polarization, no playing on emotions, and we have a result above expectations – says one of the MPs.” -- TUSK EFFECTIVELY MOBILIZED OUR SYMPATHIZERS - THIS IS ALSO ONE OF THE VOICES FROM WITHIN PIS - BARANOWSKA FURTHER IN INTERIA: “PiS's good result does not end the discussion about the direction the party should be heading. Even on election night, there were discrepancies in the commentary. Some interpret the electoral result as the effect of a milder campaign, others as a great anti-Tusk mobilization. – This result is largely thanks to Donald Tusk and his recent actions towards us, all these accountability measures. He effectively mobilized our sympathizers – this is also one of the voices from within PiS.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/raport-wybory-samorzadowe-2024/news-w-pis-wielka-ulga-i-niespodziewany-bohater-na-scenie,nId,7436944 -- POPULISTS REMOVED FROM POWER LIKE TO RETURN. PIS IS ALSO NOT OVER YET - BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI IN GW: “Some felt disappointed by the scandalous dispute within the coalition over abortion, others – outraged by the slow pace of change. Democrats promised a different, better Poland, after all. It is clearly visible that without voter mobilization, there will be no better Poland. In several countries, less or more broad coalitions emerged, which managed to push populists out of power. When the post-election enthusiasm subsided, it turned out that they were unable to govern effectively, and voters quickly forgot what it was like under their predecessors. As a result, populists returned to power, demolished democracy and the rule of law with even greater impetus.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30866516,odsunieci-od-wladzy-populisci-lubia-wracac-pis-tez-jeszcze.html -- WE STILL HAVE THE PROBLEM OF PIS, A TURNING POINT HAS NOT OCCURRED - WŁADYSŁAW FRASYNIUK IN CONVERSATION WITH BEATA MACIEJEWSKA IN GW: “I don't see that [October in April] won't be repeated; voters were not motivated to fight like on October 15th. The turnout nationwide was 51.5% this time, compared to 74.38% in the parliamentary elections. Even compared to the 2018 local government elections, more voters stayed home. Mobilization and real action were lacking. This result will likely improve, as large cities are counted at the end, but it could be better. We still have the problem of PiS; a turning point has not occurred.” -- IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A MARCH, BUT WE DIDN'T ACHIEVE IT - FRASYNIUK FURTHER IN GW: “It was supposed to be a march that would strengthen democratic forces before the European Parliament elections and lead to a good result in the presidential elections. But we didn't achieve that. Because – as I've already said – I have the impression that politics is focused on portal X and interviews, and in reality, there's a problem.” -- WHEN YOU ADD UP WHO GOT WHAT, IT TURNS OUT THAT CONSERVATIVE FORCES WON THE ELECTIONS - FRASYNIUK TELLS MACIEJEWSKA IN GW: “Worldview issues are important, which is why this election result worries me. Because when you add up who got what, it turns out that conservative forces won the elections.” https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,30866802,wladyslaw-frasyniuk-mial-byc-marsz-sil-demokratycznych-ale.html -- IT APPEARS THAT NEITHER THE PARTY'S ADOPTION OF A HARD LINE AFTER THE OCTOBER PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS NOR THE PROCESS OF HOLDING THE PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABLE HAS SO FAR DEEPLY HARMED PIS - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Another thing: if you look at the nationwide results in the provincial assembly elections, PiS came in first place, ahead of Civic Coalition. Jarosław Kaczyński's party achieved a similar result nationwide as in 2018 (then it was 34.1 percent). It appears that the party's adoption of a hard line after the October parliamentary elections, as well as the process of holding the previous government accountable, have not so far deeply harmed PiS. Meanwhile, Civic Coalition increased its support from 27 percent to 31.9 percent. This is objectively a good result. In practice, it means that KO will govern in most provinces, and PiS will reduce its holdings compared to previous elections. But among the formation's politicians, there will certainly be some dissatisfaction.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/04/07/sawczuk-wybory-samorzadowe-exit-poll-komentarz/ -- THIS IS A BITTER PILL FOR DONALD TUSK AND HIS GROUPING, WHICH SEEMED TO BE ACHIEVING HEGEMONY - ŁUKASZ LIPIŃSKI ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA'S PORTAL: “Regarding the results of individual parties, Civic Coalition will have to wait at least until the European elections to surpass PiS. This is a bitter pill for Donald Tusk and his grouping, which seemed to be achieving hegemony on the Polish political scene. On the other hand, KO will govern or co-govern in about ten provincial assemblies, which is a significant improvement since 2018.” -- PIS'S DOWNWARD TREND – ALBEIT SLOWER THAN SOME EXPECTED – IS STILL HOLDING - LIPIŃSKI FURTHER: “It is most difficult to assess PiS's results. On the one hand, maintaining a nationwide lead over other parties and at least five provincial assemblies means that the mood in Kaczyński's party will be less panicked than before. A total defeat in cities and a result worse than in the parliamentary elections – not to mention the 2018 local government elections (34.1 percent) – shows that the party's situation is still not good. And the downward trend – although slower than some expected – is still holding. PiS will try to present the election results as a success, but it is certainly not a success.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2251839,1,wybory-samorzadowe-2024-wszyscy-mieli-wygrac-a-wszyscy-troche-przegrali-najtrudniej-ocenic-wyniki-pis.read -- ONE CAN, IN A SINGLE CAMPAIGN, PROGRESSIVELY SMILE AT WOMEN, PROMISING THEM LEGAL ABORTION, AND AT THE SAME TIME SCARE THEM WITH REFUGEES, SATISFYING THE EMOTIONS OF RACIST, ALBEIT NOT EUROPSYPTIC, PATRIOTS - PAULINA JANUSZEWSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Thus, one can, in a single campaign, progressively smile at women, promising them legal abortion, and at the same time scare them with refugees, satisfying the emotions of racist, albeit not eurosceptic, patriots. In large cities, on the other hand, one doesn't need to do anything, because the dominant educated middle class or those aspiring to it will not vote for PiS.” -- IF NEW LEFT WANTS POWER AND CHANGE, IT SHOULD BE A TRULY NEW QUALITY IN POLISH POLITICS. THIS REQUIRES FOCUSING ON RADICALISM - JANUSZEWSKA FURTHER IN KRYTYKA: “That is precisely why I said in my immediate election commentary that New Left, if it wants power and change, should be a truly new quality in Polish politics. This requires focusing on radicalism and distinguishing itself from neoliberals, who are directly stealing some progressive, convenient postulates for themselves, and with them, voters to their center-right agenda. But does the Polish left really want to be different from Tusk?” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/archiwum/po-prostu-niemrawa-taka-jest-samorzadowa-polska-i-lewica/ -- A GREAT SUCCESS FOR KACZYŃSKI, A WARNING FOR THE TUSK REGIME - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “A ninth consecutive victory at the national level – regardless of how it ultimately translates into regional power – has its strength. The idea that it is enough to take away PiS’s positions in state-controlled companies and strip them of all influence in the media, and the formation will collapse like a rotten kennel, was a great illusion of the opposition. The plan that through force and resolutions, sometimes sheer terror, imprisoning decent people, gassing protesting farmers, annihilates the opposition, has failed. After April 7, 2024, it will be slightly easier for the opposition, and a bit harder for those in power.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/687827-duzy-sukces-kaczynskiego-ostrzezenie-dla-rezimu-tuska -- THE "DEMOCRATIC CAMP", GOVERNING BY "GAS, RESOLUTIONS, AND FORCE", IS ASTONISHINGLY QUICKLY LOSING MOMENTUM - JANUSZ KARNOWSKI: “We don't have full results yet. We don't know in how many provincial assemblies PiS will govern or co-govern. But we know that the "democratic camp", governing by "gas, resolutions, and force", is astonishingly quickly losing momentum. Returning to the schemas from before 2015, drenched in brutality and cynicism, turns out to be a suicidal course for the four-party coalition. Because if, after winning the parliamentary elections, the parties of December 13th are at best maintaining their holdings, it means that the iceberg is already looming on the horizon.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/687799-oboz-demokratyczny-rzadzacy-uchwala-i-pala-traci-impet -- THE ELECTIONS ARE A DEFEAT FOR THE COALITION. PIS ALSO RECEIVED A WARNING - DANIEL PERS IN ONE: "We pointed out that voter turnout would decide the results. We have a flop in this area, and from the vote distribution, we can see whose electorate let them down in these elections. Throughout the campaign, we wrote about how withdrawn this campaign was. This has the greatest impact on the coalition's electorate" – writes Pers. "These are the first elections in years that are not a plebiscite on PiS's governance. And it is evident that the coalition partners were absolutely not communicatively prepared for these new conditions. For the liberal voter in the fall, the task was accomplished" – he comments. "Nevertheless, one must also draw attention to the scale of mobilization of the Law and Justice electorate and the nominal number of votes resulting from the survey results. The formation also received a warning in this regard; there was no general uprising against the ruling party. It was a thaw – simply put, the coalition's electorate failed even more than PiS voters.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/wybory-2024-koalicja-musi-sie-obudzic-a-tusk-nauczyc-ze-to-nie-2011-r/4p72kb5,79cfc278 -- PIS'S LOSSES MAY TURN OUT TO BE MUCH SMALLER THAN IT SEEMED EVEN TWO WEEKS AGO. FANCIES THAT KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY "WILL ONLY BE LEFT WITH SUB-CARPATHIA" WILL BE VERIFIED SIMILARLY TO THOSE THAT BRONISŁAW KOMOROWSKI WOULD WIN IN 2015 IN THE FIRST ROUND - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “PiS also has a loyal, disciplined electorate that supports the party in elections. It is not large enough for PiS to seize power independently in the country with its help alone, but it weighs more in elections the lower the mobilization of the other parties' electorates. It was in the interest of the October 15th coalition forces to maximize turnout on Sunday, which is why Donald Tusk strongly urged his sympathizers to mobilize, participate in the elections, and complete the work that began during the parliamentary elections. It is unlikely that with such results PiS will be able to win new provincial assemblies, but the party's losses may turn out to be much smaller than it seemed just two weeks ago. Fancies that Kaczyński's party "will only be left with Podkarpacie" will be verified similarly to those that Bronisław Komorowski would win in 2015 in the first round. It cannot even be ruled out that PiS will retain power – if not alone, then with Konfederacja – in all the provincial assemblies it currently controls.” -- AS IT TURNED OUT, THE MESSAGE REDUCED TO FINISHING THE CLEANUP AFTER PIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO MOBILIZE KO VOTERS - MAJMUREK'S CONCLUSION: “One might get the impression that Civic Coalition, in particular, assumed victory in the provincial assemblies due to the momentum from the October 15th elections, and that the mobilization in the fall was so great that its effects would still be felt until now. If this was the assumption, it proved to be incorrect. The governing parties, especially KO and the left, also presented no vision for regional policy in the provinces – it looked much better in cities – their main message was: "Let's finish what we started on October 15th." Although even here Tusk – the most effective leader of the ruling coalition today – only woke up with a strong, pro-turnout message really in the last week of the campaign. As it turned out, the message reduced to finishing the cleanup after PiS was not enough to mobilize KO voters.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/zaskakujacy-sukces-pis-tusk-przegrywa-na-wlasne-zyczenie-analiza/mzckhvy,452ad802 -- 11 YEARS AGO, MARGARET THATCHER DIED. -- 5 YEARS AGO, THE NATIONWIDE TEACHERS' STRIKE BEGAN. -- BIRTHDAYS: Marek Sawicki, Dorota Warakomska, Renata Kim, Bogdan Pęk, Danuta Hübner.