state of play: 04/04/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Skrzydłowska: Will a Lazy Campaign Translate to Low Turnout? Kalukin: Legal Necessities of Accountability are Undisputed, but Public Perception Seems to Be Fading

Łukasz Mężyk

-- TRZASKOWSKI: TODAY IT'S HARD FOR ME TO IMAGINE TUSK WANTING TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT, BUT IN POLITICS, EVERYTHING IS REALLY POSSIBLE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/04/ -- POLITICAL PLAN FOR THURSDAY: TUSK AND THE LEFT IN SILESIA, Duda's STATEMENT, KACZYŃSKI'S PRESS CONFERENCE, THE THIRD WAY IN MAŁOPOLSKA AND ŚWIĘTOKRZYSKIE VOIVODESHIPS, NITRAS ON SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPORTS INFRASTRUCTURE, MINISTRY OF EDUCATION ON "WILLA PLUS" https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/04/polityczny-plan-czwartku-tusk-i-lewica-na-slasku-trzecia-droga-w-woj-malopolskim-i-swietokrzyskim-nitras-o-wsparciu-rozwoju-infrastruktury-sportowej-men-o-willi-plus/ -- SINCE WIRTUALNA POLSKA DESCRIBED THE SCANDAL INVOLVING OUR FAVORITE HEROES, THIS JOURNALISTIC FREEDOM MUST END. BECAUSE WHO EVER HEARD OF SUCH A THING, SIR? - PROF. MARCIN MATCZAK IN GW: “We are pitiable in our emotionality. We react to every new political ‘scandal’ or ‘exaltation’ like small children seeing their father without a beard for the first time. We fall for propaganda tricks: if a judge stole a sausage, then of course the courts must be torn down. If Wirtualna Polska described a scandal involving our favorite heroes, this journalistic freedom must end. Because who ever heard of such a thing, sir?” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30851413,marcin-matczak-reakcja-na-ziobre-i-trzaskowskiego-z-zonami.html -- IF TURNOUT IS LOW, IT MAY TURN OUT THAT THE OPPONENTS OF PIS WILL HAVE TO PUT AWAY THE WHITE HANDKERCHIEFS THEY WAVED TO HIM AS HE DEPARTED - KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN: “Will the lazy campaign before the local elections translate into low turnout? If so, it may turn out that the opponents of PiS will have to put away the white handkerchiefs they waved to him as he departed. (...) The rule of the Civic Coalition, Third Way, and the Left may make those who wanted to overthrow PiS lazy and deprive them of the determination to fight for regional assemblies. PiS voters will then gain a natural advantage among them. In municipalities, elections follow a different logic; the fight does not occur between the main parties. Promises of local actions can mobilize voters.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/04/04/skrzydlowska-kalukin-wybory-samorzadowe-emocje-jak-na-rybach/ -- FOR THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION, IT IS PRIMARILY A CHANCE TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT POLITICAL DYNAMISM AND PUSH PIS INTO EVEN DEEPER DEFENSE - RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Each of the main actors had good reasons to take this campaign seriously. For the October 15 coalition, it is primarily a chance to maintain the current political dynamism and push PiS into even deeper defense. Incidentally, the cards within the ruling structure will be reshuffled, which should count in the preliminary stages for next year's presidential elections. On the other hand, Kaczyński's right wing may benefit from the elections to control internal chaos and re-mobilize the electorate, which has become disoriented after handing over power. The marginalized and divided Confederation is also looking for opportunities to return to serious play.” -- GENERAL POLLING TRENDS HAVE CLEARLY SLOWED DOWN. IT IS EVIDENT THAT THE CIVIC COALITION NO LONGER HAS SERIOUS RESERVES TO PERMANENTLY EXCEED 30 PERCENT - FURTHER FROM KALUKIN: “General polling trends have clearly slowed down, however. It is evident that the Civic Coalition no longer has serious reserves to permanently exceed 30 percent. In turn, the Third Way has lost several points after the abortion dispute, and its suggestions of winning over disappointed PiS voters remain an illusion. On the other hand, Kaczyński's party has probably survived the difficult post-election period, improved its mobilization capabilities, and is neck and neck with the Civic Coalition.” -- OF COURSE, THERE IS NO QUESTION OF THE RETURN OF GREAT EUPHORIA LIKE ON OCTOBER 15 - FURTHER FROM KALUKIN: “In a sense, it can already be argued that regardless of the final results, none of the major forces will be fully satisfied on Sunday. Of course, there is no question of the return of great euphoria like on October 15. That was a one-time experience, and the stakes have also decreased somewhat, and the prose of governing in a coalition has effectively washed away a significant part of the shared reflexes. The coalition partners have been playing primarily for themselves for some time now, escalating internal differences and divisions.” -- AFTER A MODERATELY SUCCESSFUL GOVERNMENT "PROM NIGHT," WILL TUSK MANAGE TO MOBILIZE SUPPORT ONCE AGAIN AROUND THE PROJECT OF HOLDING THE PIS GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABLE. THE LEGAL AND POLITICAL NECESSITIES MAY SEEM UNDISPUTED, BUT PUBLIC PERCEPTION SEEMS TO BE FADING - WRITES KALUKIN: “One can, of course, doubt whether, after a moderately successful government "prom night," Tusk will manage to mobilize support once again around the project of holding the PiS government accountable. The legal and political necessities may seem undisputed, but public perception seems to be fading. And even if such focus returns, for how long? By the way, such swords are always double-edged, as they also mobilize the voters of the opposing side, as Kaczyński, who was hunting for 'Russian influences,' learned not so long ago.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2251179,1,dziwne-wybory-samorzadowe-nie-czuc-dramaturgii-choc-od-wyniku-tak-wiele-zalezy-jakie-sa-prognozy.read -- WIPLER CATEGORICALLY RULES OUT COOPERATION BETWEEN THE CONFEDERATION AND SOLIDARNA POLSKA - AS HE TELLS PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ FOR GAZETA.PL: “- We don't see such prospects; we differ significantly because we are a party that wants to fight and is fighting for Polish entrepreneurs. And we have the impression that for Zbigniew Ziobro, a good entrepreneur is one sitting in investigative detention, according to the slogan that there's something for everyone if they sit. Moreover, this is how courts and the prosecution in Poland operate after eight years of his rule, how abuses are still possible – says Wipler for jedennewsdziennie.pl.” -- BUT WIPLER IS GRATEFUL FOR THE ATTACK ON MORAWIECKI - FURTHER FROM ŚMIŁOWICZ: “We are grateful that Patryk Jaki told the truth about how Mateusz Morawiecki harmed Poland in EU institutions, how he traded our sovereignty, and what deplorable mistakes he made. There are also other politicians from SP with whom we would agree on many issues, but it's not like there is a simple path to cooperation between these two formations – adds Wipler.” https://jedennewsdziennie.pl/article/218 -- JUST BEFORE THE ELECTIONS, JAŚKOWIAK'S TEAM EXPECTS A SECOND ROUND. AND PIS CAN HELP HERE - TOMASZ NYCZKA IN GW: “And further: - Fifty-fifty. Jacek might win in the first round, but only slightly. If there's a second round, it's hard to say who will be in it. Hopefully, it will be with a PiS candidate. We are doing everything to make that happen. It promises to be a lottery. (...) Jaśkowiak praises Czerwiński in an interview with "Głos." Plewiński immediately points this out, writing that Jaśkowiak is "buttering up the PiS candidate." He suggests that a second round of elections with Czerwiński would be a dream scenario for him.” https://poznan.wyborcza.pl/poznan/7,36001,30852817,w-ekipie-jaskowiaka-spodziewaja-sie-drugiej-tury-jest-jeden.html -- BANNING HOMEWORK WAS EASY. NOW THE MINISTER OF EDUCATION FACES A REAL CHALLENGE. HOW TO RATIONALLY BUILD A SCHOOL IN A POPULISM-RIDDEN POLAND - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GW: “Banning homework was easy. Now the Minister of Education faces a real challenge. How to rationally build a 21st-century school in a populism-ridden Poland and how to extract money from the Minister of Finance to fund it. How Barbara Nowacka handles this challenge will determine how she goes down in history.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30853603,reforma-szkoly-sama-likwidacja-prac-domowych-niczego-nie-rozwiazuje.html -- THE CASE OF EWA WRZOSEK MAY STRIP THE REFORMERS IN TUSK'S GOVERNMENT OF THE NIMBUS OF MORAL SUPERIORITY OVER THE CORRUPT AND POLITICIZED PROSECUTION FROM THE TIMES OF PIS AND ZIOBRO - TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: “In this dispute, Prosecutor General Adam Bodnar and his close associates from the Lex Super Omnia association previously held the moral high ground. They were supposed to bring normality to the prosecution, detach it from political influence, and ensure it operated according to the rule of law. The shadow that has fallen on Prosecutor Wrzosek may weaken the credibility of these plans in the eyes of public opinion.” -- ONE CANNOT TAKE SHORTCUTS - FURTHER FROM PIETRYGA: “There is an even deeper moral to be drawn from this story for some judicial and prosecutorial activists fighting for the rule of law during the PiS era, who may think that after the change of government they can do more, and that shortcuts are justified. They cannot. And let the case of Prosecutor Wrzosek serve as a warning against this.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art40104311-tomasz-pietryga-prokurator-ewa-wrzosek-juz-sporo-stracila-czy-straci-cala-prokuratura -- ENTREPRENEURS AND GROUPS REPRESENTING THEIR INTERESTS SHOULD DEMAND FINANCIAL STABILIZATION AND THE PRESENTATION OF A SCENARIO BY THE GOVERNMENT LEADING TO BUDGET BALANCE - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “Entrepreneurs, aware of the economic conditions, and the political groups representing their interests, should demand the stabilization of public finances and the presentation by the government of a scenario leading to budget balance. Tax reform is necessary, simplifying and lowering taxes, and eliminating taxes particularly harmful to the economy. But this must be preceded by expenditure reform – cutting those items that are costly and at the same time do not solve significant social or economic problems.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30854921,okiem-liberala-obnizenie-podatkow-to-tylko-polowa-rownania.html

Łukasz Mężyk