state of play: 03/26/2024

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Pacewicz on Governing Hindered by Party Pluralism, Wilczak on Poczobut's Case Requiring More Than Just Outcry

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SHOUTING THAT A CRIME IS HAPPENING IN THE POCZOBUT CASE IS NOT ENOUGH - JAGIENKA WILCZAK ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: “Poczobut's freedom is not just a matter of one man, but a symbol of the fight for democracy and human rights in Belarus. Now, due to Russia's war against Ukraine, perhaps the world has even learned where the aforementioned Belarus is located. I dream that – and as soon as possible, even today – I will start another text with the words: Andrzej Poczobut has just been released from prison. He is healthy, whole, and has returned to his family in Grodno. He thanks everyone for not forgetting about him.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/2250179,1,andrzej-poczobut-od-trzech-lat-siedzi-w-lagrze-krzyczec-ze-dzieje-sie-zbrodnia-to-za-malo.read -- PIS STILL LEADS WP SURVEY: “According to the poll, Law and Justice would gain the most support in the regional assembly elections, with 29.4% of respondents nationwide intending to vote for them. This is a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the poll conducted a week ago. The Civic Coalition came in second place with 27.4% (down 0.7 percentage points). The Third Way, an alliance of Poland 2050 and the Polish People's Party, is supported by 10.5% of respondents (an increase of 2.6 percentage points). The Left would receive 8.4% support (up 0.6 percentage points), and Confederation along with the Independent Samorządowcy – 7.5% (down 1 percentage point).” https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/bitwa-o-sejmiki-mamy-najnowszy-sondaz-jedna-istotna-zmiana-7009837648145312a -- HOŁOWNIA LOSES GROUND, PRESIDENT RETURNS TO THE TOP OF CBOS TRUST SURVEY: “While Duda may have reasons to be pleased, as trust in him has increased by 6 percentage points and the percentage of respondents who distrust him has decreased by the same amount (down 6 pp.), Hołownia has lost as much as 11 pp., and the percentage declaring distrust towards him has risen by 8 pp. The podium is rounded out by the Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski of PO, whom 46% of respondents currently trust (up 1 pp.), while 36% distrust him (up 2 pp.). Just behind Trzaskowski is the Minister of National Defence, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, who enjoys the trust of 45% of respondents (down 6 percentage points). The Minister of Defence and leader of PSL is distrusted by 27% of those surveyed (up 4 pp.).” https://dorzeczy.pl/sondaz/566559/ranking-zaufania-cbos-na-czele-duda-i-holownia.html -- TRZASKOWSKI LEADS TRUST IN ONET SURVEY, HOŁOWNIA LOSES SIGNIFICANTLY: “Rafał Trzaskowski is at the top of the ranking for the second time in a row. In March, the Mayor of Warsaw is trusted by 48.8% of respondents (22.1% definitely, 26.7% rather). This is 2.3 pp. less compared to the IBRIS poll for Onet last month. Currently, 38.8% of people have a negative opinion of the politician (-0.7 pp.), and 11.8% have a neutral opinion (+2.4 pp.). Szymon Hołownia dropped from the leader's position in February, and his chances of a quick return are diminishing. The Marshal of the Sejm is currently trusted by 42.8% of respondents (11.2% definitely, 31.6% rather) – this is 5.3 pp. less compared to February. This means that in two months, he has lost as much as 11.6 pp. Distrust towards the leader of Poland 2050 is declared by 43.3% of people in the latest survey (+0.7 pp.). He has a neutral opinion from 13.5% (+4.7 pp.). Andrzej Duda maintains third position in the ranking, but as will be shown shortly, he has a serious competitor. In the latest poll, the President enjoys the trust of 39.7% of respondents (26.5% definitely, 14.4% rather). This is 1.2 pp. less than a month ago. Distrust towards the politician is expressed by 51.4% of people (+0.8 pp.), and 8.9% of poll participants have a neutral opinion about him (+0.4 pp.).” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/sondaz-zaufania-kryzys-notowan-holowni-wynik-tuska-ewenementem/f574vjl,79cfc278 -- ZANDBERG: I DID NOT SIGN THE MOTION FOR A NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE AGAINST GLAPIŃSKI, I DO NOT THINK THAT BLOWING AIR AND MAKING A STAND-UP COMEDIAN OF ONESELF IS A CONSTITUTIONAL OFFENSE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/03/26/ -- THE THESIS OF SUCCESSFUL FULFILLMENT OF CIVIC COALITION'S ELECTION PROMISES IS UNTENABLE - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO PRESS: “The thesis of the successful fulfillment of Civic Coalition's election promises is untenable. Did they promise? It's not there. Either there's only a little, or it's supposed to be. The main culprit is the person who added 'for the first 100 days of government' to the 100 concrete points. And for a better effect, they added an exclamation mark. This is absurdly short a period if we are talking about proper legislation, including regulations, and not a repeat of PiS's 'parliamentary projects'.” -- IT IS KNOWN THAT CAMPAIGNS HAVE THEIR RULES, BUT I CONSIDER A FLAT EXONERATION OF POLITICIANS FOR PULLING THE WOOL OVER PEOPLE'S EYES AS A DANGEROUS CONSENT TO THE CRISIS OF PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACY - PACEWICZ FURTHER IN OKO PRESS: “Przemysław Sadura and Sławomir Sierakowski, in Dominika Sitnicka's interview about populism, cited in OKO.press, the 'political science rule that parties create programs to win elections, but they do not win elections to implement programs.' Such a narrative provokes my old-fashioned, civic opposition. It is known that election campaigns have their rules, but I consider a blanket exoneration of politicians for pulling the wool over people's eyes as a dangerous consent to the crisis of parliamentary democracy. In the European Union, 21% of respondents declare trust in political parties according to Eurobarometer, while 75% do not trust them; in Poland, 22% trust them, and 74% do not. Accepting the logic of insincere promises, we will soon catch up with Latvia, where 90% do not trust parties. Politics is not juggling. The detachment of words from intentions demoralizes and dulls not only public opinion but also politicians themselves, as by entering the mode of confabulation, they unlearn serious conversation with citizens.” -- PARTY PLURALISM, EVEN WITH THE BEST COOPERATION, HINDERS GOVERNANCE BECAUSE THERE IS NO LONGER ROOM FOR APPOINTING DEPUTIES BASED PURELY ON MERIT FOR SPECIFIC WORK - WRITES PIOTR PACEWICZ: “The expanded government, to meet gender criteria, is the largest in the EU in terms of the number of ministers, and together with deputy ministers, it reaches gargantuan proportions. The leadership of the Ministry of National Education consists of six people from four parties, counting PSL and Poland 2050 separately and KO as a whole. This party pluralism, even with the best cooperation, hinders governance because there is no longer room for appointing deputies based purely on merit for specific work.” https://oko.press/rzad-tuska-w-pulapce-populistycznych-obietnic -- AFTER 100 DAYS, THERE IS NO DOUBT: THIS IS A DRAMATICALLY WEAK GOVERNMENT - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “This is an exceptionally weak team. Even astonishingly weak. A team that has no attractive vision for Poland. A team that is unable to resist external threats, especially related to the so-called Green Deal and its derivatives. This is a team that is consuming its political, post-election capital faster than the greatest optimists on the independence side expected. Media monopoly is the only chance for the four-party coalition. But it also has its limitations. This whole epic will last a bit longer, but it will end with the complete exposure of this cynical charade.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/686371-gdyby-ekipa-tuska-nie-ukradla-tvp-lezalaby-juz-na-deskach -- IF THE CHAIRMAN WERE TO POINT TO SOMEONE FROM US AS PRIME MINISTER TODAY, IT WOULD BE MATEUSZ - WE HEAR FROM NOWOGRODZKA - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “Morawiecki still has very good relations with Jarosław Kaczyński. - If the chairman were to point to someone from us as prime minister today, it would be Mateusz - we hear from Nowogrodzka. He has allies like Ryszard Terlecki or Joachim Brudziński; in the elections, he even gained a higher percentage of votes on the PiS list than Kaczyński and is mentioned in polls as PiS's main presidential candidate. It's not that Morawiecki is completely ingrained in the PiS fabric, but he is currently the second face of this party – after Kaczyński.” -- THE RUMOR THAT THE RULING CAMP WILL TRY TO PULL AT LEAST A DOZEN OR SO DEPUTIES FROM THE PIS CLUB, WHO WOULD FORM A SEPARATE CLUB – THEY WOULD BE PROOF OF PIS'S EROSION AND CONSTITUTE A KIND OF PURGATORY - GĄDEK FURTHER IN GAZETA.PL: “Within PiS – apart from the 'Morawiecki party' – there is also a rumor that the ruling camp will try to pull at least a dozen or so deputies from the PiS club, who would form a separate club – they would be proof of PiS's erosion and constitute a kind of purgatory. According to these rumors, Michał Dworczyk, former head of the Chancellery of the Prime Minister, could lead such a rebellion. This is what those in the PiS camp who would like to drive Dworczyk out of PiS are whispering. It seems impossible and sounds like a political fiction scenario for Dworczyk to lead a revolt within PiS. What is a fact is that Dworczyk is taking the electoral defeat and removal from power exceptionally hard.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30829740,najwazniejsze-aby-byc-pierwszym-i-to-3-z-przodu-nadchodzi.html -- 14 YEARS AGO Bronisław Komorowski defeated Radosław Sikorski in the primary elections for the Civic Platform candidate in the upcoming presidential elections. -- BIRTHDAYS: Tadeusz Wrona, Barbara Szczepuła.

Łukasz Mężyk