state of play: 03/20/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Sroczyński: It's good that the government isn't implementing its most harmful promises and is adjusting to the dramatically changing geopolitical situation; Machowski: One regional assembly certain for PiS

Łukasz Mężyk

-- KIERWIŃSKI: GLAPIŃSKI HAS FAILED TO FULFILL HIS CONSTITUTIONAL DUTIES, HE IS A PIS FUNCTIONARY - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/03/20/ -- 56% FOR A REFERENDUM - SE'S 'JEDYNKA' POLL: “According to the latest poll by the Pollster Research Institute commissioned by "SE," 56% of respondents believe there should be an abortion referendum. Interestingly, nearly three-quarters of citizens declare their intention to participate in such a plebiscite. - This will close this pressing issue for a long time and end the discussion – says Urszula Pasławska (47) from PSL”. https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/chcemy-referendum-o-aborcji-wynik-tego-sondazu-nie-pozostawiaja-zadnych-watpliwosci-aa-wa5e-AwAn-8RLL.html -- LET'S DEMAND GREAT THINGS FROM THE TUSK GOVERNMENT, SUCH AS PREPARING THE COUNTRY FOR A POTENTIAL WAR SHOCK, AND LET'S FORGET ABOUT SMALL THINGS – LIKE FOOLISH TAX CUTS – EVEN IF THERE ARE MANY OF THEM AND THEY WERE RECKLESSLY PROMISED – WRITES GRZEGORZ SROCZYŃSKI IN GAZETA.PL: “Friday marks 100 days of the Tusk government, so the festival of reckoning and complaints about the poor implementation of Civic Platform's "100 specific actions" has begun. We hear moans about how little the government has "eased the burden on entrepreneurs," not lowering taxes or contributions, and "following the path of PiS's budgetary recklessness," and so on. PiS will also have its say, lining up its youth wing with signs saying "Concrete action #4: Raise the tax-free allowance to PLN 60,000. It's not there and it won't be! They've lied to Poles!". Meanwhile, it is precisely good that the government is not implementing its most harmful promises and is adjusting to the dramatically changing geopolitical situation”. -- PLATFORMA KNEW THAT AFTER POSSIBLY TAKING POWER IT WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO DELIVER EVERYTHING, BECAUSE WE HAVE NOT ONLY THE WAR ON OUR HANDS, BUT ALSO GIGANTIC EXPENSES RELATED TO THE ENERGY TRANSFORMATION, AND MEANWHILE THE PO PROGRAM CAN BE SUMMARIZED BRIEFLY: REDISTRIBUTION AIMED AT WILANÓW - CONTINUES SROCZYŃSKI: “Full implementation of the "100 actions for 100 days" would bring the Polish state to its knees. Even then, by signing its populist wish list, Platform knew that after possibly taking power, it would not be able to deliver everything, because we have not only the war on our hands, but also gigantic expenses related to the energy transformation. Meanwhile, the PO program can be summarized briefly: redistribution aimed at Wilanów. Starting from small ideas – not very smart, but harmless – like lower taxes for the beauty sector (cost: PLN 2.2 billion) – to large and more harmful ideas, like raising the tax-free allowance to PLN 60,000. 70 percent of this higher tax-free allowance would end up in the pockets of wealthier citizens. If someone earns PLN 4,500, they would gain PLN 100 a month from such a change, while someone earning PLN 15,000 would gain PLN 300 a month. What sense does that make? Increasing the production of French cheeses and Italian salami?” -- DO YOU SERIOUSLY THINK THAT IN THE CONTEXT OF A THREATENING RUSSIA-NATO CONFLICT, WE SHOULD REDUCE FUNDING FOR HOSPITALS IN POLAND AND REDIRECT THAT MONEY TO EXPENDITURES IN LUXURY PUBS? - CONTINUES SROCZYŃSKI: “Hołownia and Kosiniak-Kamysz want the return of this Vistula tax haven (a term coined by Marek Belka) so much that they are putting it on the line, saying "it's our be-all or end-all in the coalition." And this is particularly sad. Here we have the Marshal of the Sejm and the Minister of National Defense of a country threatened by war who want to deprive the healthcare system of contribution revenue. Hello, gentlemen! It may be necessary to send Polish soldiers to defend Lithuania or Estonia! Do you seriously think that in the context of a threatening Russia-NATO conflict, we should reduce funding for hospitals in Poland and redirect that money to expenditures in luxury pubs?” -- LET'S DEMAND GREAT THINGS FROM THE TUSK GOVERNMENT, SUCH AS PREPARING THE COUNTRY FOR DIFFICULT TIMES, AND LET'S FORGET ABOUT SMALL THINGS – CONCLUSION BY SROCZYŃSKI: “A resilient state invests more in the public sphere, if only so that citizens feel it is worth defending that state. Important for our resilience to a potential war shock are not only billions for howitzers and planes; billions for decent salaries for officials, transport, railways, but also for large projects like CPK or nuclear power plants are equally important. Everything that strengthens our potential and makes us independent of the whims of this or that Trump. Let's demand from the Tusk government something great, which is preparing the country for difficult times, and let's forgive it for small things – like foolish tax cuts – even if there are many of them and they were recklessly promised”. https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30805476,100-konkretow-ko-no-i-dobrze-ze-tusk-nie-realizuje-rozdawnictwa.html -- LAW AND JUSTICE IS NEGOTIATING WITH ALPAC CAPITAL FUND TO INVEST IN A NEW, CONSERVATIVE POLISH TELEVISION CLOSE TO KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY. IT CAN BE NAMED "TV PIS". THE FUND HAS ROOTS IN PORTUGAL BUT IS CONNECTED TO VIKTOR ORBÁN, THE PRIME MINISTER OF HUNGARY. ALPAC CAPITAL ALREADY OWNS EURONEWS - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL. https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30809081,najtajniejszy-projekt-pis-na-nowa-telewizje-chca-zdobyc-ponad.html -- PIS WOULD HAVE TO SETTLE FOR AN INDEPENDENT VICTORY ONLY IN THE PODKARPACKIE VOIVODESHIP; IN THREE (LUBLIN, ŚWIĘTOKRZYSKIE, AND MAŁOPOLSKIE), TO GOVERN, IT WOULD HAVE TO FORM A COALITION WITH KONFEDERACJA - ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI IN GW: “Now – with the support indicated by averaged polls from CBOS and Opinia24 – the democrats can count on 331 seats (KO – 220; TD – 84; Lewica – 27), and the right-wing on 221 (PiS – 176; Konfederacja – 45). These polls indicate a victory for the democrats in 11 regional assemblies. PiS would have to settle for an independent victory only in the Podkarpackie Voivodeship; in three (Lublin, Świętokrzyskie, and Małopolskie), to govern, it would have to form a coalition with Konfederacja. In the Podlaskie regional assembly, we would have a tie: democrats and the right-wing would most likely win half of the seats each”. -- MACHOWSKI ON THE BALANCE OF POWER IN PODLASIE: “It is enough that in the constituency covering Białystok, Trzecia Droga – with a turnout of around 60%, it can count on about 25.5 thousand votes – receives 100 (!) votes less, and it loses its second mandate in this constituency to PiS. Thus, PiS together with Konfederacja gains a majority in the Podlaskie regional assembly”. -- HOŁOWNIA'S INCLUSION OF THE ABORTION ISSUE INTO THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT CAMPAIGN – WHICH ARE THE CONSEQUENCES OF HIS DECISION – WILL CAUSE THE LEFT TO TAKE OVER SOME OF TD'S VOTERS - CONTINUES MACHOWSKI: “Hołownia's inclusion of the abortion issue into the local government campaign – which are the consequences of his decision – will cause the rivalry between Lewica and TD to take on sharp political colors. Lewica has stronger arguments in this dispute. And it is possible that it will succeed (as will KO) in taking over some of TD's voters. However, Hołownia and Kosiniak-Kamysz's coalition is not entirely at a disadvantage. I have already written that Trzecia Droga – precisely because it emphasizes, among other things, a conservative stance towards abortion liberalization – can be effective in winning over PiS voters”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30807578,ile-sejmikow-zdobeda-demokraci-a-ile-pis.html -- PLATFORMA HAS DISGRACEFULLY ABANDONED WROCŁAW. IT WILL COME BACK TO HAUNT THEM - FORMER UW MP LUDWIK TURKO IN GW: “And what about the residents of Wrocław, who are not subject to party discipline, the former voters of PO – who should they vote for? Platform has left them to themselves, the consequences of which they will surely feel soon. In my opinion, this is an act of staggering political thoughtlessness. It always comes back to haunt you. As for voting for the mayor, if it's up to me, I'll wait for the second round, which is very likely in this situation. It's too early to choose the mythical lesser evil. Because the greater one has already happened”. https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,30809361,platforma-odpuscila-sobie-wroclaw-w-kompromitujacy-sposob.html -- AND MASTALEREK WILL RESPOND EVERY TIME, WITHOUT MINCING WORDS - STATEMENT OF AN ANONYMOUS RIGHT-WING POLITICIAN IN A TEXT BY KAMILA BARANOWSKA IN INTERIA: “Mariusz Błaszczak unnecessarily engaged in speculation about Morawiecki's and Mastalerka's new party, so the latter responded to him. And he will respond every time, without mincing words. Such verbal skirmishes will not help us build cohesion in the camp – predicts one of the PiS politicians. Jarosław Kaczyński's formation considers Marcin Mastalerka, the head of the president's political cabinet, to be unpredictable and fears him somewhat, considering that he has too much influence on the head of state. – Everyone on the right is already arguing with everyone. If we don't come to our senses, disaster is looming – admits one of our contacts from the right. – We are dealing with some inflation of ambitions – he complains. – As usual, now all hope is in the leader, who alone can stomp his foot and put it all together. Can you imagine what would happen now if the leader weren't here? – asks another of our contacts. And he answers himself: – We would all kill each other”. ​​https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-wielka-awantura-w-pis-kazdy-kloci-sie-juz-z-kazdym,nId,7399412 -- THE "SMILING" CRIMINAL POLICY IS A RISKY IDEA - TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: “The minister must be aware of the responsibility she is taking upon herself by making such declarations. What will happen if a prisoner released into freedom as a result of liberal currents in the ministry commits a brutal crime, e.g., rape? Will the modern, Norwegian approach to punishment still be relevant in such a situation? I fear that no government will allow itself to undermine the foundations of citizen security, even experimentally”. https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art40021051-tomasz-pietryga-usmiechnieta-polityka-karna-to-ryzykowny-pomysl -- GW ON OBAJTEK'S TAPES - AS WRITTEN BY MARCIN RYBAK: “– About a year ago, a sound file reached Obajtek through an acquaintance. It was about an hour-long recording, a compilation of all or parts of a dozen or so meetings of the then-Orlen president from 2018 and 2019 – one of the informers tells "Wyborcza". Among them was a conversation with Piotr Nisztor, a journalist from "Gazeta Polska Codziennie" – recently revealed by Onet. There is also a recording of a meeting with another person associated with the media, and fragments of Obajtek's conversations with employees of the energy company”. https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,30810131,afera-tasmowa-pis-kto-zalozyl-podsluch-w-gabinecie-prezesa.html -- BY ANNOUNCING THE EXCHANGE OF AMBASSADORS, MINISTER RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI IS ACTING IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LETTER AND SPIRIT OF THE CURRENT REGULATIONS - JACEK CZAPUTOWICZ IN OPINIE RZ: “By announcing the exchange of ambassadors, Minister Radosław Sikorski is acting in accordance with the letter and spirit of the current regulations. The question arises whether he will want to use the spoils system created by his predecessors, or whether he will return to the principle that diplomats become ambassadors. This doubt could be clarified by an amendment to the Act on Foreign Service”. https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40019661-jacek-czaputowicz-spor-o-wymiane-ambasadorow -- CAREER OF THE HEALTH MINISTER'S FRIEND. HER HUSBAND WAS PROMOTED TO THE NFZ, TAKING OVER HIS POSITION - JUDYTA WATOŁA IN GW: “After the Christmas meeting of Silesian hospital directors, the information about Marek Augustyn's imminent promotion was not the only one that quickly spread. – He let us know that his wife's acquaintance with the new Minister of Health would also result in other promotions for people from the hospital in Parkitka – one of the Christmas Eve attendees tells us”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30811406,kariera-przyjaciolki-minister-zdrowia-jej-maz-awansowal-do.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Andżelika Możdżanowska.

Łukasz Mężyk