state of play: 03/18/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Gadomski: Europe Smells of War, While Polish Politics Revolves Around Abortion; Chwedoruk: It's Not the Coalition Facing Strategic Problems, But the Opposition

Łukasz Mężyk

-- JOE BIDEN'S CAMP IS FED UP WITH BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, BUT STILL GIVES HIM BOMBS - JERZY HASZCZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The risks of such a policy by Biden were evident in the Democratic primaries in Michigan, where 100,000 participants refrained from supporting the president. If a similar number of voters were to abstain from the November elections altogether or vote for another candidate, Trump would likely win in Michigan. The same could happen in other swing states, which would ultimately mean the current president losing power. Progressive voters and those of Arab descent will, of course, not vote for Trump, who, besides other views unacceptable to them, is also pro-Israel.” https://www.rp.pl/analizy/art40007191-jerzy-haszczynski-oboz-joe-bidena-ma-dosc-beniamina-netanjahu-ale-nadal-mu-daje-bomby -- GRABIEC: KACZYŃSKI MUST GET USED TO TESTIFYING, LESZCZYNA: 100 CONCRETE ACTIONS FOR 100 DAYS IN GOVERNMENT IS STILL VALID - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/03/18/ -- THEY ESTIMATE IN KO THAT THE DEMOCRATIC CAMP WILL WIN IN 15 REGIONAL ASSEMBLIES - IWONA SZPALA IN GW: “Three weeks before the elections, the Civic Coalition is leading in polls, and it will take the largest share of votes. In KO, they estimate that the democratic camp will win in 15 regional assemblies. - We only don't see a light yet in Podkarpacie. It's still a politically difficult terrain – says Marek Sowa. – In the remaining regional assemblies, we anticipate either an independent majority, for example, in the Pomeranian Voivodeship assembly, or coalition agreements.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30803712,partie-koalicji-spieraja-sie-o-aborcje-ale-licza-na-sukces.html -- THE DEMOCRATIC THEATRE - ROMAN IMIELSKI IN GW: “Donald Tusk's, Szymon Hołownia's, and Włodzimierz Czarzasty's ruling coalition will not fall apart over abortion, even though they are arguing about it loudly and publicly. (...) Because, ladies and gentlemen, democracy and politics are also theatre – and we are seeing that recently. The Left did not attack anyone so fiercely on abortion when it was negotiating with KO about a single list in the regional assembly elections. Once the negotiations failed, they launched their offensive. KO also did not attack Hołownia so ruthlessly before. And Hołownia did not so ostentatiously demonstrate that he is a conservative on the issue of abortion.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30803733,wielka-klotnia-o-aborcje-czyli-demokratyczny-teatr.html -- SINCE THERE IS NO CHANCE OF FULL ABORTION LIBERALIZATION AS LONG AS ANDRZEJ DUDA IS PRESIDENT, THERE IS NO REASON FOR THIS ISSUE TO CAUSE SUCH GREAT PASSIONS RIGHT NOW - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “Until the tenant of the Presidential Palace changes, nothing will change regarding abortion, unless for the worse, as a fierce quarrel between coalition partners could lead to a serious political crisis and give the pro-abortion right a chance to return to power.” -- EUROPE SMELLS OF WAR, AND POLISH POLITICS REVOLVES AROUND ABORTION - GADOMSKI FURTHER IN GW: “War psychosis is escalating. The Supreme Audit Office (NIK) reviewed shelters and found them to be in poor condition, stating that in the event of an airstrike or missile attack, the civilian population would have nowhere to hide. (...) But this is not the number one topic in discussions among politicians and publicists in the media. Military matters are important, but the most important topic is abortion.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30803137,pachnie-wojna-owszem-ale-o-aborcje.html -- THIS IS A MUCH MORE SERIOUS MATTER THAN ABORTION - DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ AND ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON HEALTH CONTRIBUTIONS - IN NEWSWEEK: “– Tusk isn't sending the Minister of Finance, but through a specialist deputy minister, he says: 'No, there is no possibility of a simple return to this.' For now, we have focused on the squabble around abortion. However, it is a ritualistic electoral ploy that has been going on in Poland for 30 years. Poles have gotten used to it. Everyone says: 'Don't argue, the Coalition cannot break up over abortion.' And of course, it won't break up over it. However, things like health contributions are no longer ritualistic exchanges. This is a discussion that will lead to even greater tensions in the coalition because everyone felt they had promised something in this regard – believes Długosz. Staniewicz: – Jarosław Kaczyński says this is one of the reasons PiS lost the elections. – This is a much more serious matter than abortion – assesses Długosz.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/sprawa-ktora-moze-zatrzasc-koalicja-kaczynski-widzial-tu-przyczyne-wyborczej-porazki/2qenw5m -- PIIS IS DROWNING IN POWERLESSNESS. IT IS CERTAINLY NOT THE COALITION THAT HAS STRATEGIC PROBLEMS NOW, BUT THE OPPOSITION - PROF. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK IN CONVERSATION WITH SZYMON PIEGZA ON ONET: “- There are no major problems with taking over power, in reality. I am thinking primarily of taking over public media, or state-owned companies and making gradual changes in the judiciary — he adds. Therefore, the expert believes that it is not the ruling camp that has serious problems now, but the opposition. - It is evident that the new government is also charting new courses in foreign policy, especially regarding relations with the European Union. It may sometimes be clumsy and ungraceful, but it is progressing step by step. On the other hand, PiS is sinking into powerlessness. It is certainly not the coalition that has strategic problems now, but the opposition – he notes.” -- THERE IS NO SIGN OF A PIIS VICTORY IN ANY OF THE NEAREST ELECTIONS - CHWEDORUK FURTHER ON ONET: “The political scientist also believes that 'PiS is experiencing for the first time something that Jarosław Kaczyński himself once called impossibilism.' - This party can do little today, and I think the longer this lasts, the harder it will be to calm this party down internally; some party structures will fall into passivity – he believes. - The fact is, there is no sign of a PiS victory in any of the nearest elections – he adds.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/powazne-problemy-pis-ekspert-partia-doswiadcza-tego-o-czym-mowil-kaczynski/ -- JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY CAN EXPECT 18 SEATS IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS. THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF APPLICANTS; THE PIS LEADER IS ALREADY REFUSING SOME CANDIDATES - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW. -- KONDZIŃSKA ON THE FIERCE FIGHT FOR LIST PLACEMENTS IN PIS IN MAŁOPOLSKA: “In the European Parliament elections, we elect in 13 constituencies. Assuming PiS does not lose any of its top positions, the party expects to gain additional seats in Małopolska (two) and Lower Silesia, Silesia, and Mazovia (one each). A fierce battle will unfold in Małopolska, where, according to preliminary arrangements, former Prime Minister Beata Szydło will open the list, followed closely by Patryk Jaki, Arkadiusz Mularczyk, and Dominik Tarczyński. - We will get three seats here, someone from this group will be dropped – analyzes a PiS politician.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30800538,wybory-do-europarlamentu-w-pis-zaczyna-sie-walka-o-miejsca.html -- THE FORMER PRIME MINISTER'S PERFORMANCE BEFORE THE COMMISSION MAY PROVE TO BE AN IMPORTANT TURNING POINT - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Firstly, it reinforces the conviction that Jarosław Kaczyński – or more precisely, only Jarosław Kaczyński – is capable of leading the camp of Polish independence towards further political victories. He can provide the diagnosis, then the prescription, and also, which is fundamentally important, elementary unity. Secondly, the spectacular (intellectual, legal, and political) defeat of MP Zembaczyński and MP Sroka is the first failure of the Great Lie, with which the December 13 Coalition came to power. They lied describing PiS's government, they lied during the campaign, exaggerating scandals that didn't exist, they lied about promises. They lied exceptionally cynically, and unfortunately, with impunity. Until now.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/685451-wielkie-klamstwo-po-zaczyna-sie-chwiac-w-koncu-upadnie -- WHO KNOWS, MAYBE IN A FEW MONTHS WE WILL SEE THE END OF SADNESS AND THE BEGINNING OF A BIG, GOOD WAVE FOR LAW AND JUSTICE IN THE EVENTS OF FRIDAY, MARCH 16 - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Diligently, for many years, this dream collision was built. And when it finally happened, Poles saw only the sensationalist nature of the accusations, the dramatic, sometimes embarrassing quality of the 'democratic' investigators-prosecutors, and the class and good assertiveness of the leader of the Polish right. This will have its political consequences. Who knows, maybe in a dozen or so months, in the events of Friday, March 16, we will see the end of sadness and the beginning of a big, good wave for Law and Justice.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/685372-triumf-kaczynskiego-na-komisji-wprowadzil-wladze-w-dygot -- TUSK AND SIKORSKI CAN NOW CHECK HOW MUCH CAN ACTUALLY BE ACHIEVED WHEN WE ARE AT THE TABLE – FRIENDLY RELATIONS ARE ONE THING, HARD RESULTS ARE ANOTHER - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “PiS's ideological and practical limitations meant that our foreign policy could not breathe freely. Donald Tusk's new government has an opportunity for a new opening in this regard. Meanwhile, Poland's voice is needed more than ever to influence the preparation of effective Western policy towards the threat from Russia. One can hope that Poland will use this time to the maximum of our capabilities. Tusk and Sikorski can now check how much can actually be achieved when we are at the table – friendly relations are one thing, hard results are another. It is in this vein that the prime minister recently wrote on the X portal: 'True solidarity with Ukraine? Fewer words, more ammunition.'” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/03/18/sawczuk-rewolucja-w-polityce-zagranicznej-co-ugraja-tusk-i-sikorski/ -- RUSSIAN MONEY, COMMUNIST ACTIVISTS, ILLEGALLY AWARDED DEGREES, ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED WITHOUT NECESSARY PERMITS - ANNA MIERZYŃSKA IN OKO.PRESS ON COLLEGIUM HUMANUM: “Russian money, communist activists, illegally awarded degrees, activities conducted without necessary permits, buying university diplomas – this is how the mentioned universities, with which Paweł C. and his school cooperated, operated. Today, he himself is accused of similar offenses.” -- OKO ON KAROL KARSKI AT COLLEGIUM HUMANUM: “As one can read in the official summary of the university's activities in 2016, a working meeting was held with 'representatives of the Higher School of Management from Warsaw: Paweł C. and Karol Karski.' Karski had been cooperating with both universities (Polish and Slovak) for two years. For this cooperation, like Dawidziuk, he was awarded an honorary doctorate. He received it on December 9, 2016, along with Paweł C., who received a medal. Symbolic – the ceremony took place in the hall named after Milan Čič.” https://oko.press/tajemnice-collegium-humanum -- FORMER PRIME MINISTER MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI WAS A GUEST ON "ŻURNALISTA". THE CONVERSATION LASTED OVER THREE HOURS. AMONG THE TOPICS DISCUSSED WAS HIS CHILDHOOD, ADOLESCENCE, AND THE FIRST "MILLIONS" EARNED. https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/morawiecki-u-zurnalisty-opowiadal-wielkich-milionach-7006883552864992a -- PUDELEK ON THE TOPIC OF ADOPTED CHILDREN IN CONVERSATION WITH MORAWIECKI ON YOUTUBE: “First of all, I am grateful to the biological parents for deciding to give birth to these little ones. And besides that, there is no difference for me here. Maybe my older children will get offended, but the younger ones are the greatest love of my life (...). My wife and I have contact with various orphanages.” https://www.pudelek.pl/mateusz-morawiecki-opowiedzial-o-adopcji-dwojki-dzieci-i-swojej-burzliwej-przeszlosci-kiblowalem-w-pierwszej-klasie-7006896637897600a -- "KORWIN OF THE LEFT" – WHY DOES ANNA MARIA ŻUKOWSKA EVOKE SO MUCH EMOTION? SHE BEHAVED PROPERLY – SAYS MI STAŚKO. SHE ALSO MENTIONS THAT ŻUKOWSKA HELPED HER MANY TIMES - ALEKSANDRA HERZYK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Internet users also blamed the MP for suggesting in 2022, when Maja Staśko was facing a flood of hate after appearing at the Women's Congress in a sweatshirt with a very deep neckline, that she wanted to draw attention to herself and her outfit. – But despite this, she went with me to the police to support me when I filed a report about the threats directed at me online. She behaved properly – Staśko tells me. She also mentions that Żukowska helped her many times when she was supporting victims of sexual violence. – She inquired about their needs and also offered to pay for a lawyer. The lawyer she put me in touch with was also very helpful.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/korwin-lewicy-dlaczego-anna-maria-zukowska-budzi-takie-emocje/ -- SECOND ANNIVERSARY OF THE DEATH OF PROF. MARIAN ZEMBALA. -- BIRTHDAYS: Edward Miszczak, Grzegorz Napieralski, Marek Kossakowski, Anna Sarzyńska, Jan Bajorek, Marek Dziubek.

Łukasz Mężyk