state of play: 03/13/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Wieliński: Watching the President and Prime Minister Sit Together in the White House Made Me Dream of Normalcy, Kuisz: In the Face of an Existential Crisis, They Restrained Their Animosities

Łukasz Mężyk

-- TUSK ON THE SUDDEN WEIMAR TRIANGLE SUMMIT AND MASSIVE AMBASSADOR EXCHANGE, DUDA ANNOUNCES VETO ON THE "DAY AFTER" PILL AND OPPOSITION TO AN ABORTION REFERENDUM [NIGHT SUMMARY] https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/03/13/tusk-o-naglym-szczycie-trojkata-weimarskiego-i-masywnej-wymianie-ambasadorow-duda-zapowiada-weto-do-tabletki-dzien-po-i-sprzeciw-wobec-referendum-aborcyjnego-podsumowanie-nocy/ -- CZARZASTY ON DUDA: THERE'S NO POINT IN LOOKING THROUGH THE RELUCTANCE OF ANY FORMATION WHEN IT COMES TO FOREIGN AFFAIRS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/03/13/ -- DUDA AND TUSK IN THE USA WITH ONE VOICE. THIS WON'T HAPPEN AGAIN SOON - BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI IN GW: “Please remember March 12th. This is the first time in many years that a PiS politician and a politician from the democratic coalition have done a lot of good for their country, for our country, together. Stay, moment, you are beautiful. I watched President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk sitting next to each other in the White House and dreamed of normalcy.” -- NOW I LOOK AT THE JOINT PHOTOS OF DUDA, TUSK, AND PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN, AND I HOPE THIS DEGENERATION IS IN THE PAST - WIELIŃSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “The last eight years have been a dark time in the history of Polish diplomacy, when the previous prime minister threatened the European Union with a third world war and received the lackeys of Vladimir Putin in Warsaw with the honors due to a head of state. Unfortunately, Andrzej Duda also contributed to this degeneration. I pointed this out many times. Now I look at the joint photos of Duda, Tusk, and President Joe Biden, and I hope that this is in the past.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,30790901,duda-i-tusk-w-usa-jednym-glosem-to-sie-szybko-nie-powtorzy.html -- THERE SHOULD BE NO SURPRISE THAT IN THE FACE OF AN EXISTENTIAL CRISIS FOR THE COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE, PRIME MINISTER DONALD TUSK AND PRESIDENT ANDRZEJ DUDA HAVE RESTRAINED THEIR ANIMOSITIES - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN INTERIA: “We are one of the countries with post-traumatic sovereignty. And this, as a rule, determines our view of the ongoing war and the decisions of politicians. Therefore, there should be no surprise that in the face of an existential crisis for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Andrzej Duda have restrained their animosities and traveled together to allied Washington. Against the backdrop of historical analogies that shape our understanding of the geopolitical world, this is simply how it should be. 'If you want peace, prepare for war' – ancient wisdom has lost none of its relevance.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-dlaczego-zolnierze-krajow-nato-powinni-byc-na-ukrainie-o-his,nId,7385396 -- THIS IS ALSO AN IMPORTANT SIGNAL WE ARE SENDING TO OUR ADVERSARIES FROM THE EAST: WE CAN ARGUE, BUT YOU WILL NOT DIVIDE US ON THIS ONE ISSUE - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “This is also an important signal we are sending to our adversaries from the East: we can argue, but you will not divide us on this one issue. We know which side of the map our allies are on, and which side our enemies are on. And in the face of threat from the enemy, we temporarily forget about various 'scores to settle.' It is known that in the arsenal of the hybrid war that Russia is waging against the West, the polarization of Western societies plays an important role. It is therefore good to show Moscow that it cannot achieve full success here.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39984521-artur-bartkiewicz-co-wynika-dla-polski-ze-spotkania-donalda-tuska-i-andrzeja-dudy-z-joe-bidenem -- POOR FEED FOR INFLATION. A 5% VAT WILL NOT DRAMATICALLY INCREASE PRICES. RESTORING VAT TO BASIC FOODSTUFFS TO A NORMAL LEVEL WILL NOT IMPACT INFLATION AS MUCH AS FEARED - RZ: https://www.rp.pl/dane-gospodarcze/art39984081-slaba-pozywka-dla-inflacji-5-procentowy-vat-nie-podniesie-dramatycznie-cen -- MORAWIECKI'S GOVERNMENT WANTED TO ABANDON THE ZERO VAT RATE ON FOOD FROM JANUARY THIS YEAR – SO THAT THE 2024 BUDGET WOULD AT LEAST HOLD TOGETHER - PIOTR MIAĄCZYŃSKI IN GW: “Morawiecki's government itself wanted to abandon the zero VAT rate on food from January this year – so that the 2024 budget would at least hold together. For the purposes of this text, I will only note that the condition of the most important Polish financial act is very poor, and the projected VAT revenues are downright jubilantly optimistic. And it is this tax that provides the most to the budget.” -- A MAJOR AMENDMENT AWAITS US IN MID-YEAR - MIAĄCZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “What conclusions can be drawn from all of this? That a major amendment awaits us in mid-year to this collection of wishes, currently called the budget, held together with zip ties.” -- SO BREAD MAY BE MORE EXPENSIVE THAN BEFORE, BUT MANICURES WILL BE CHEAPER. TUSK'S GOVERNMENT IS SHOOTING ITSELF IN THE FOOT IN THIS WAY - PIOTR MIAĄCZYŃSKI WRITES FURTHER IN GW: “Donald Tusk's government has immense problems understanding the consequences of certain decisions. Raising the tax on food right before the local elections is as impressive an achievement as the debate in the Sejm on March 20th, just before Donald Tusk's government completes its first 100 days, on Konfederacja's draft to increase the tax-free allowance to PLN 60,000. Perhaps the planned reduction of VAT for the beauty sector from April 1st corresponds to this. So bread may be more expensive than before, but manicures will be cheaper. Tusk's government is shooting itself in the foot in this way.” -- THE REAL BLOW WILL BE THE UNFREEZING OF ELECTRICITY AND GAS PRICES. AND THAT WILL HIT THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT WITH FULL FORCE - PIOTR MIAĄCZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “Higher VAT rates will hurt us. Probably around PLN 500 per year for a standard family (these were previous calculations of savings from the shield's introduction). The real blow will be the unfreezing of electricity and gas prices. And that will hit the current government with full force.” https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,147582,30789734,kto-klamie-w-sprawie-podniesienia-vat-na-jedzenie-morawiecki.html -- LARGE SEGMENTS OF THE ELECTORATE MAY NOT UNDERSTAND THIS AND MAY JUSTIFIABLY BE IRRITATED WITH THE GOVERNMENT; MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW THE SELLERS APPROACH THE MATTER, ESPECIALLY LARGE CHAINS - JAKUB SZYMCZAK IN OKO.PRESS: “It's easy to get the impression that the government isn't coordinating these actions and can't narratively prepare them. Many things are done from day to day, without prior announcements. And ultimately, it looks as if the government wants to raise VAT on such a basic product as food, in order to provide relief to those who profit from their capital. Large segments of the electorate may not understand this and may justifiably be irritated with the government. Even if the losses for the average household are not significant – much depends on how sellers, and especially large retail chains, approach the matter.” -- AN INCREASE OF 50-100 PLN IN MONTHLY FOOD EXPENSES FOR SOME HOUSEHOLDS MAY BE UNNOTICEABLE, BUT FOR THE POOREST IT CAN BE PAINFUL - SZYMCZAK CONTINUES IN OKO.PRESS: “An increase in monthly food expenses by PLN 50-100 for some households may be unnoticeable, but for the poorest it can be painful. Especially at a time when the poorest spend a larger portion of their household budget on food than the rich. And they will also benefit from the potential abolition of the Belka tax. Even if we assume that, according to many economists, VAT on food should finally be restored, this change could have been prepared much better.” https://oko.press/od-kwietnia-vat-na-zywnosc-znow-5-proc-co-rzad-zrobi-z-dodatkowymi-wplywami -- THE GOVERNMENT IS PREPARING US FOR EITHER COLD HOMES OR EMPTY WALLETS - IRENEUSZ SUDAK IN GW: “PiS promoted gas for home heating, the new government promotes nothing. The effect? In a few years, we will face either 15 degrees in our homes or gigantic heating bills. Experts are urging support for heat pumps and photovoltaics, but little is happening here.” https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,179190,30787706,co-dalej-z-rachunkami-za-ogrzewanie-rzad-zykuje-nam-albo-zimne.html -- ON THE LACK OF WOMEN AT THE HEAD OF KO AND TRZECIA DROGA LISTS IN POZNAŃ - TOMASZ NYCZKA WRITES IN GW: “Trzecia Droga did not deem it appropriate to give any 'number one' spot on their lists to a woman. The Civic Coalition gave one 'number one' spot to a woman in Poznań - it's held by councilwoman Małgorzata Dudzic-Biskupska. This is also not a reason to be proud, especially since Tusk, even before the October 15th elections, announced parity on the lists. Mayor Jacek Jaśkowiak advocated for more women to be in the 'number one' spots, but achieved little - the shape of the lists was decided by the PO authorities in Poznań and Wielkopolska and internal party games.” https://poznan.wyborcza.pl/poznan/7,36001,30788292,ta-decyzja-trzeciej-drogi-w-poznaniu-wpisuje-sie-w-ogolnopolski.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Bartłomiej Wróblewski, Artur Soboń, Łukasz Pawłowski (from the city hall), Piotr Borawski.

Łukasz Mężyk