state of play: 03/11/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Szułdrzyński: Tusk Can Raise Poland's Standing by Several Notches, Sawczuk: Tusk Has the Opportunity to Deliver Real Success for Farmers

Łukasz Mężyk

-- DUDA: SECURITY WITHOUT THE USA IS SADLY VERY FRAGILE, MASTALEREK: THE ONLY AGREEMENT THE PRESIDENT CONCLUDED WAS WITH THE PRIME MINISTER, AND HE WILL DISCUSS AMBASSADORS WITH THE PRIME MINISTER - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/03/11/ -- URSULA VON DER LEYEN WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE STAR OF LAST WEEK'S EUROPEAN PEOPLE'S PARTY DELIBERATIONS IN THE ROMANIAN CAPITAL, BUT DONALD TUSK STOLE HER SHOW - BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI IN GW: “– It's like a breath of fresh air – an EU diplomat tells me. We are standing in the Romexpo hall, a congress center in Bucharest. In the middle, on a large stage, under a giant screen, sit the leaders of the most important European Christian Democratic parties. Donald Tusk is speaking. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, who was nominated as the lead candidate for the European People's Party (EPP) in the upcoming European elections, was supposed to be the star of the two-day (March 6-7) deliberations in the Romanian capital. She was supposed to be, but the Polish Prime Minister stole her show.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30782296,gwiazda-tuska-jasno-swieci-w-europie.html -- HOW GREAT IS DONALD TUSK'S PERSONAL CAPITAL OF TRUST IN THE EUROPEAN UNION? IT WAS CLEARLY VISIBLE THIS WEEK AT THE EUROPEAN PEOPLE'S PARTY MEETING - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Indeed, how great is Donald Tusk's personal capital of trust in the European Union. It was clearly visible this week at the meeting of the European People's Party, to which Civic Platform belongs, in Bucharest. There wasn't a single important politician's speech – be it the head of the European Commission, the President of the European Parliament, or the head of the EPP, or others – where Tusk's name wasn't mentioned, either in the form of thanks or – as in von der Leyen's speech – with an expression of pride. One of my interlocutors in Bucharest, an important EPP politician, even said: 'Tusk saved not only Poland but also the European Union.'” -- TUSK MAY ACHIEVE THE GOAL OF RAISING OUR COUNTRY'S STANDING BY SEVERAL NOTCHES IN THE EUROPEAN HIERARCHY, PARADOXICALLY FULFILLING A GOAL PROMISED BY HIS POLITICAL OPPONENTS AND PREDECESSORS FROM PIS, WHO PROMISED POLAND'S ENTRY INTO THE FIRST EUROPEAN LEAGUE - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN RZ: “Will the farmers' protest become a catalyst for Donald Tusk to take the initiative in the EU? There are two fundamental questions here. Will Tusk be able to seize this window of opportunity that is appearing in the European landscape? And will he be able to use it in Poland's interest? If so, he will achieve the goal of raising our country's standing by several notches in the European hierarchy, paradoxically fulfilling a goal promised by his political opponents and predecessors from PiS, who promised Poland's entry into the first European league. The only difference is that they didn't know how to go about achieving this goal. And resolving the dispute with the farmers could become a catalyst for building this position.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39967861-michal-szuldrzynski-protest-rolnikow-i-polityczna-metoda-donalda-tuska -- NOW TUSK HAS THE OPPORTUNITY NOT ONLY TO SUPPORT THE PROTEST'S DEMANDS BUT TO ACTUALLY DELIVER SUCCESS - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Now Prime Minister Tusk has the opportunity not only to support the protest's demands but to actually deliver success – and to act on the European stage in the interests of Polish farmers. At the same time, he can clearly distinguish himself from Law and Justice, which, despite temporarily closing the border, was unable to negotiate lasting favorable solutions. If an agreement on changes to the Green Deal were reached in Brussels soon, it would happen just a few weeks after Tusk officially took up the issue – meaning remarkably quickly. This would be the second such success after unblocking funds for the National Reconstruction Plan, confirming the new government's strong position in the EU.” -- THERE IS A CLEAR DOMINANCE OF PIS AMONG FARMERS; CHANGING THIS STATE OF AFFAIRS WOULD BE A MAJOR EVENT - SAWCZUK CONTINUES: “There is a clear dominance of PiS among farmers, similar to the previous elections. Changing this state of affairs would be a major political event. The timing is not bad for the government. PiS is on the defensive, and for now, there's no sign of how that might change. Furthermore, the new government can show that Jarosław Kaczyński's party is responsible for the farmers' problems, while it, unlike PiS, listens to the farmers and wants to effectively solve these problems.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/03/11/sawczuk-czy-donald-tusk-zdobedzie-poparcie-rolnikow/ -- THE WEST CANNOT LOOK AT RUSSIA'S WAR WITH UKRAINE LIKE POPE FRANCIS - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “However, the West, and especially the countries in our part of Europe, cannot afford such naivety. This naivety is short-sighted even from the perspective of countries seemingly distant from the conflict, like Pope Francis's Argentina. The belief that Russia will stop at Ukraine is naive. Why would it stop if it can achieve its goals through brutal force again? The next targets might already be within NATO. And that means a global conflict, the consequences of which will be felt by both the Vatican and Argentina. And whose conclusion could pose an existential threat to us all. The Catholic Church doctrine states that the Pope is infallible in matters of faith. But it says nothing about the Pope's infallibility in matters of geopolitics. And on this specific issue, the Pope is simply mistaken.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39968201-artur-bartkiewicz-franciszek-i-biala-flaga-papiez-nie-jest-nieomylny-ws-geopolityki -- FRANCIS OFFENDS HIMSELF AGAIN ON THE ISSUE OF UKRAINE - MICHAŁ OLSZEWSKI IN GW: “The call for Ukraine to wave a white flag is another diplomatic and moral failure of the Pope. (...) The Vatican does not produce ammunition; it can only appeal to consciences, pray for peace, and clearly point out evil. Francis, however, suggests that Ukrainians bow their heads before the Kremlin devil. He does not realize the consequences of such a gesture for Ukraine and the world.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,30782166,diabel-na-kremlu-papiez-w-watykanie-franciszek-po-raz-kolejny.html -- FARMER PROTESTS: SPECIAL INTEREST GROUPS ARE FIGHTING FOR THEIR OWN INTEREST - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “Well-organized special interest groups influence not only political institutions but also society as a whole, convincing everyone that their interest is aligned with the interest of all.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30781510,rolnicze-protesty-grupy-specjalnego-interesu-walcza-o-wlasny.html -- WARSAW KO POLITICIANS WITH COLLEGIUM HUMANUM DIPLOMAS. THE LIST INCLUDES MPS AND DISTRICT MAYORS - ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI AND MICHAŁ WOJTCZUK IN GW: “Another local politician adds: – People went there because it was very cheap and it was known that without effort, you could get a paper that would allow you to sit on supervisory boards and in management of companies. They could also count on discounts – we hear. Our informant adds that 'a significant part of Warsaw PO obtained an MBA diploma from Collegium Humanum.' – It's rare to find someone from our ranks who hasn't taken advantage of this opportunity – she says.” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,30775823,warszawscy-politycy-ko-z-dyplomem-collegium-humanum-na-liscie.html -- MBA STUDIES. A FACTORY PRODUCING SPECIALISTS IN MANAGING ANYTHING - PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “So, the problem is not just the fraudulent MBA studies at Collegium Humanum, but MBA studies in general. Giving them any higher rank is harmful. The words of government members on the occasion of the February MBA Ranking gala, organized by the Perspektywy Educational Foundation, are incomprehensible. Minister of Science Dariusz Wieczorek stated that the ceremony is an 'excellent opportunity to debate on restoring the due prestige to MBA studies.'” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/gospodarka/studia-mba-fabryka-produkujaca-specjalistow-od-zarzadzania-czymkolwiek/ -- A TEAM OF SOCIOLOGISTS AND JOURNALISTS HAS FORMULATED RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PIS REGARDING LOCAL ELECTIONS. AND PRESENTED A CRITIQUE OF THE 2023 CAMPAIGN - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “The participants of the meeting concluded that if PiS does not engage in self-reflection and revise the assumptions of its election campaign, the party faces degradation. (...) Ideology prevails in PiS, pushing aside a realistic approach to reality and listening to the voices from the party's grassroots. PiS must highlight issues related to sovereignty and security, but it cannot close itself off to topics such as the future of the planet, new technologies, or personal freedom. (...) Nevertheless, the general conclusion is: at the end of the campaign, the message should have been softened to avoid mobilizing the opposing electorate. Tusk's staff reached similar conclusions before the elections. When I asked KO politicians during the campaign if complimenting Western Poland at the expense of Eastern Poland, for example, wouldn't harm them, they replied: 'Nothing can harm us anymore, we have a free hand, we can take risks because the smear campaign against Tusk has taken such an extreme form that any accusation against him loses its power.'” -- THE ATMOSPHERE AND EMOTIONS ARE STILL ON THE SIDE OF THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION, AND THIS CANNOT BE CHANGED OVERNIGHT - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES ON THE SOCIOLOGISTS' RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PIS: “The atmosphere and emotions are still on the side of the October 15 coalition, and this cannot be changed overnight. Radical rhetoric must be abandoned to avoid irritating and mobilizing the anti-PiS electorate. The occupation of buildings should be relinquished (slowly and imperceptibly).” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30780891,zespol-socjologow-sformulowal-rekomendacje-wyborcze-dla-pis.html -- AGGRESSION CAN GO FURTHER. LAW AND JUSTICE AND ITS SOCIAL BACKING MUST SERIOUSLY ADDRESS THE SECURITY OF ITS CHAIRMAN - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “The most important and urgent task is to draw conclusions from the tests conducted by aggressors to see how far they can go in attacking Jarosław Kaczyński. Tusk's government is sending them a signal that they can go very far. I am not surprised – the current Prime Minister has not an ounce of responsibility for the entire political community, he does not understand that his task is to protect the leader of the opposition as well. He has never condemned them – which some may interpret as encouragement. These attacks are on the current government's conscience; it has a duty to stop them. But it does not and will not do so. Aggression can therefore go further. Law and Justice and its social backing must seriously address the security of its chairman. It is a large party, with a deep and broad social base, with capable and young people who can take on this task. This must take a much more formalized form than it currently does. Such solutions are known in Polish political tradition.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/684685-pis-musi-powaznie-zajac-sie-bezpieczenstwem-swojego-prezesa -- NOW THE DISPUTE ALSO CONCERNS THE SCALE OF ZUS CONTRIBUTION REDUCTIONS. CZARZASTY AND HOŁOWNIA ARE CLASHING FIERCELY - LESZEK KOSTRZEWSKI IN GW: “The Left, and specifically the Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy, headed by it, has now come out against entrepreneurs. The labor ministry, in its position on contribution holidays, writes plainly that entrepreneurs are already treated better than employees.” https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,147880,30774155,o-ile-zmniejsza-sie-skladki-zdrowotne-i-na-zus-przedsiebiorcow.html -- MODEL NFZ PRESIDENT. HOW IZABELA LESZCZYNA STEPPED INTO ADAM NIEDZIELSKI'S SHOES - JUDYTA WATOŁA IN GW: “As the president of the National Health Fund (NFZ), Filip Nowak fulfilled every wish of Minister Adam Niedzielski. A year and a half ago, he agreed without hesitation to deprive the fund of PLN 13 billion. Now, Minister Izabela Leszczyna repeatedly praises him for exemplary cooperation. (...) Exemplary, because Nowak, who did not want many deputies, obediently announced a competition for a new vice-president. It was won by Marek Augustyn from Częstochowa, Leszczyna's hometown. He had previously managed several health care centers without success, but he is the husband of her friend, and Leszczyna announced his promotion to the NFZ on the second day of her tenure at the ministry, long before the competition. This did not prevent her from saying at a congress in Katowice: – There are no rigged competitions, I have no personal recommendations, we are waiting for people with open minds.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30782399,wzorowy-prezes-nfz-czyli-jak-izabela-leszczyna-weszla-w-buty.html -- HOŁOWNIA IS INTERESTED IN POSTPONING THE DEBATE ON ABORTION, POSITIONING HIMSELF AS A HERO WHO SAVED THE COHESION OF THE RULING COALITION, AND IN PEACE DURING THE LOCAL CAMPAIGN - AGNIESZKA WIŚNIEWSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Hołownia wants to lead to the projects being sent to a special committee. And then, as he announces, he will vote against the liberalization of anti-abortion regulations anyway. So let the Marshal's story not blind you into thinking that he wants to save all four projects and give them a chance for further consideration. He is interested in postponing the debate on abortion, in portraying himself as a hero who saved the cohesion of the ruling coalition, and in peace during the local campaign. Incidentally, he constantly talks about himself. The Marshal should be appreciated for his honesty. At least we know that Hołownia cares about Hołownia, and women will have to look for other politicians who will support them.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/co-powie-proboszcz-a-co-banka-jak-holownia-lawiruje-w-sprawie-aborcji/ -- ONE CAN HAVE REASONABLE DOUBTS WHETHER THE NBP PRESIDENT WOULD STICK TO THIS STRATEGY IF PIS STILL HAD A MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT - MAREK RABIJ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Both President Glapiński and the Monetary Policy Council have reasons to be satisfied, as the pace at which inflation is slowing down surprises even economists who have so far sharply criticized the NBP authorities for politicization and inaction. However, some forecasts made just a few months ago did not take into account the change in the ruling team, which has resulted in the central bank president returning to the role of guardian of the Polish currency's value, independent of power, as defined in the constitution. As a loyal son of Law and Justice, Adam Glapiński has no intention of helping the ruling coalition, which currently results in, among other things, maintaining interest rates at a level that curbs inflation. However, one can have reasonable doubts whether the president would stick to this strategy if PiS still held a majority in the Sejm.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/inflacja-nareszcie-pod-kontrola-ale-stopy-procentowe-nie-spadna-poleciec-moze-za-prezes-nbp-186471 -- BIRTHDAYS: Borys Budka, Bożena Borys-Szopa, Ewelina Owczarska, Anika Słowińska.

Łukasz Mężyk