state of play: 03/04/2024
POLITICAL SCENE: GW on a Better Pegasus in the Prosecutor's Office, Szułdrzyński: PiS Wants to Become a Party of Smiles, Pacewicz on the Ipsos Poll for Oko.press: Surprisingly Popular Strong Statement that 'Nothing Has Changed'
-- HERMES, OR PEGASUS BIS, IN THE NATIONAL PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE - WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: “The current leadership of the National Prosecutor's Office learned about the existence of Hermes in an unusual way. According to "Gazeta Wyborcza" sources, last week a bill arrived for the periodic subscription fee for using the system.
– That's when we became interested in what it was. The matter looks outrageous. For now, we are gathering materials – says our informant from the National Prosecutor's Office. There is no official statement from the National Prosecutor's Office on this matter yet. "Gazeta Wyborcza" received information about the National Prosecutor's Office having "its own Pegasus" two weeks ago. Initially, the whole story sounded unbelievable. Prosecutors do not have the authority to conduct operational surveillance on their own. They commission wiretaps, email surveillance, and data acquisition from the police or special services. They were the ones using Pegasus. However, the informant provided detailed information (names, dates, designations) which we later confirmed from other sources”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30757242,wyborcza-ujawnia-hermes-czyli-pegasus-bis-w-prokuraturze.html
-- WHEN ONE TIME DOCTORS DID NOT WANT TO DISCHARGE HIM HOME BETWEEN DIALYSES, EXPLAINING THAT HE MIGHT DIE, HE LEFT AGAINST MEDICAL ADVICE, SIGNING A STATEMENT: "I HAVE BEEN DYING FOR A LONG TIME" - ANNA BIKONT ON JACK KURON'S 90TH BIRTHDAY, WHICH WAS ON SUNDAY: “He ran for president in 1995 and received 9.22 percent of the votes. Television showed him looking at his election results and crying. He was already very ill then, and during the campaign he fell off his bicycle and never recovered afterwards. Prison took not only nine and a half years of his life, but also his entire health. He had to spend three days a week in the hospital connected to dialysis. When one time doctors did not want to discharge him home between dialyses, explaining that he might die, he left against medical advice, signing a statement: "I have been dying for a long time." He appeared in public for the last time, in a wheelchair, wearing a kippah, on the anniversary of the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising. He died two months later, in the hospital. It will be 20 years on June 17th”.
https://wyborcza.pl/alehistoria/7,121681,30758573,90-lat-temu-urodzil-sie-jacek-kuron-mial-najpopularniejszy.html
-- CZARZASTY: EVERYTHING IS GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION IN THE COALITION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/03/04/
-- THE PREVAILING OPINION IS THAT POLAND HAS CHANGED FOR THE BETTER SINCE OCTOBER 15, 2023, BUT ONLY 38% HOLD THIS VIEW. SURPRISINGLY OFTEN, VOTERS OF THE COALITION, ESPECIALLY THE THIRD WAY, BELIEVE THAT NOTHING HAS CHANGED. YOUNG PEOPLE ARE ALSO WAITING FOR OTHER CHANGES - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: ““In your opinion, has there been a change for the better, for the worse, or has nothing changed in Poland since the last parliamentary elections on October 15, 2023?” – we asked in the latest Ipsos poll for OKO.press and TOK FM*. The three answers were relatively even:
"for the better" (38 percent) had a slight advantage over
"for the worse" (32 percent),
and the strong statement that "nothing has changed" (23 percent) turned out to be surprisingly popular”.
-- AS MANY AS 29% OF TWENTY-YEAR-OLDS AND 37% OF THIRTY-YEAR-OLDS SEE NO CHANGES - PACEWICZ FURTHER ON THE IPSOS POLL: “As can be seen, younger people (under 50) more often see a change "for the better" than "for the worse" (36 vs. 27 percent), but as many as 29% of them believe that nothing has changed yet. Older people are polarized in their assessments (40 vs. 39 percent), and only 15% question the changes. More precisely, as many as 29% of twenty-year-olds and 37% of thirty-year-olds see no changes, while only 12% of people aged 60 plus”.
-- A CLEAR DIFFERENCE IS EMERGING WITH THE THIRD WAY, WHOSE VOTERS ARE PERHAPS MORE DISTANT TOWARDS DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT THAN THE LEADERS - PACEWICZ FURTHER ON THE IPSOS POLL: “72% of the PiS electorate assesses the changes as "for the worse," and 14% believe that "nothing is changing" (this could be a defense mechanism, so as not to see what is). The KO electorate is "for it" in as many as 85%, and the Left also, although only 71%. A clear difference is emerging with the Third Way, whose voters are perhaps more distant from Donald Tusk's government than the leaders: 58% see a change "for the better," but as many as 32% do not see any changes”.
https://oko.press/sondaz-ipsos-o-polsce-po-wyborach
-- THE END OF THE DISARMAMENT PENSION IS THE END OF THE EUROPEAN LIFESTYLE. NEW PRIORITIES ARE NEEDED - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “The world is at a turning point today. This also applies to Europe and, of course, Poland. Europe has behind it several decades of peaceful, prosperous life, which we also dream of in our country. Some of this European lifestyle can be saved, but in the face of military threats, growing defense spending, demographic changes, and global shifts in economic competitiveness – not everything. A new social model is needed for new times. Let's not defend the old one, let's discuss the new one”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30757242,koniec-renty-rozbrojeniowej-to-koniec-europejskiego-stylu-zycia.html
-- WE HAVE STOOD OUR GROUND, WE ARE FIGHTING ON. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE POLLS, WHICH, WITH MINOR EXCEPTIONS, SHOW RELATIVELY SMALL LOSSES AND A STABLE POSITION - JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI IN A CONVERSATION WITH JACEK AND MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “We have stood our ground, we are fighting on. This is also evident in the polls, which, with minor exceptions, show relatively small losses and a stable position for Law and Justice. This is a positive signal for a party that, given its inability to form a government, lost the election. This is always a difficult moment and in a parliamentary democracy often leads to a further radical outflow of voters”.
-- OUR POLITICAL CAMP NOW NEEDS UNITY, DECISIVE LEADERSHIP, AND A QUICK TRANSITION TO THE OFFENSIVE. THAT IS WHY I CHANGED MY POLITICAL PLANS - KACZYŃSKI FURTHER TELLS THE KARNOWSKIS: “We are more united and stronger, better prepared for further struggle than our opponents think. But of course, this is a difficult moment. There are weaker people who react to the loss of power nervously, thoughtlessly, there are those who may simply want to join the stronger, pursuing the simplest life strategy. Our political camp now needs unity, decisive leadership, and a quick transition to the offensive. That is why I changed my political plans. Earlier, I estimated that leading the party until 2025 would be enough”.
-- I ALSO HEAR ABOUT SOME PLANS TO CREATE INITIATIVES THAT, IN MY OPINION, BASED ON LONG-TERM EXPERIENCE, CAN ONLY CONTRIBUTE TO WASTING VOTES THAT WILL GO TO THE RIGHT - KACZYŃSKI FURTHER WITH THE KARNOWSKIS: “I also hear about some plans to create initiatives that, in my opinion, based on long-term experience, can only contribute to wasting votes that will go to the right. Either by not crossing the 5% threshold, in which case the votes are completely wasted, or results slightly above 5%, but it can even be 10%, where the "efficiency" of 1% of voters is 4.5 times lower than with results in the tens of percent. So, we also have a wasting effect. This must be known, but it does not mean that we are closed to expanding our camp. There is only one condition: partners must have a realistic assessment of the situation, so as not to lower the result through ill-considered ideas. As for ourselves, it is possible, as I mentioned, that in the next parliamentary elections we will be part of a broader camp, which would certainly seek a different, one might say – a broader name”.
-- RETURN TO SUPPORT ABOVE 40%. 7% MORE THAN WE RECEIVED - KACZYŃSKI ON HIS PLANS: “Returning to support above 40% – 7% more than we received on October 15, 2023 – was the minimum to be able to govern further with that vote distribution, with that turnout. This would almost certainly give us over 230 seats”.
-- WE ARE FOCUSING ON CREATING SOMETHING THAT WOULD BE A RECONSTRUCTION OF TRUE PUBLIC TELEVISION - KACZYŃSKI FURTHER WITH THE KARNOWSKIS: “I can say this: we will come. We will definitely come – full agreement here. For now, we are focusing on creating something that would be a reconstruction of true public television”.
https://wpolityce.pl/tygodniksieci/683797-kaczynski-zostaje-walczymy-dalej-bo-stawka-jest-polska
-- PIS CHANGES ITS MESSAGE BY 180 DEGREES AND WANTS TO BECOME A PARTY OF SMILES - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “But – as can be seen – Jarosław Kaczyński decided that Poles prefer to hear about love, smiles, about positive promises. Therefore, his main speech sounded like it was from a motivational meeting for "fajni Polacy" (cool Poles). But by formulating such a message, he himself admitted that the entire strategy adopted by PiS a year ago was a catastrophic mistake. (...) PiS formulated the [referendum] questions in such a way that the preferred answer was "No," and ran a campaign under the slogan 4xNo. By announcing today that it is "for," it is trying to change the message by 180 degrees”.
-- AFRAID OF LOSING EVERYTHING, KACZYŃSKI IS TRYING TO IMITATE TUSK TODAY - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI FURTHER IN RZ: “Afraid of losing everything, Kaczyński is trying to imitate Tusk today, even pretending to be Tusk. But besides the unexpected change, there is also the question of the credibility of PiS's new course. On Saturday, at the convention of Jarosław Kaczyński's party, it was argued that local elections are not about politics. That local government should not be political”.
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39933681-michal-szuldrzynski-kaczynski-przebiera-sie-za-tuska-i-chce-polski-na-tak-co-moze-pojsc-nie-tak
-- PIS WANTS TO BE A "YES" PARTY. HOW LONG WILL PRESIDENT KACZYŃSKI LAST? - JAKUB MAJMUREK ON NEWSWEEK PORTAL: “And here comes the second problem: how long will President Kaczyński be able to stick to the "yes" message? On Saturday, unusually for his speeches in recent months, he basically didn't talk about a "coup d'état" or plans to "turn Poland into a territory inhabited by Poles." He didn't even scare people with Germany and Tusk. However, will the leader of PiS be able to impose similar communication discipline on himself or significantly limit his participation in the campaign over the next month?”
-- THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS CHANGE IS NOT TOO LATE TO SAVE PIS FROM A REALLY PAINFUL DEFEAT - MAJMUREK FURTHER ON NEWSWEEK PORTAL: “The only question is whether this change is not too late to save PiS from a truly painful defeat in the local elections. And whether, with Jarosław Kaczyński at the helm, PiS will actually manage to convince anyone that it is truly a "party for yes".
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/najwieksza-przeszkoda-w-nowym-przekazie-pis-jest-prezes-z-trzech-powodow/q4gs084
-- BIRTHDAYS: Adam Daniel Rotfeld (turning 86), Dorota Gawryluk, Marta Kuligowska, Barbara Bubula, Joanna Sokolińska, Michał Kania, Piotr Markiewicz
live
43 min
34 min
„In My Opinion, Yes.” — Glapiński on Whether March is a Good Time for an Interest Rate Cut
40 min
Glapiński: All Forecasts Indicate Inflation's Return to Target in Poland is Sustainable
97 min
„Led to Positive Changes in Historical Polish-Ukrainian Relations.” — Tusk Praises Zelensky's Commitment
99 min
„More Than a Prelude to Practical Cooperation.” — Tusk on the Signed Letter of Intent in Kyiv
2 hours
„There is no just, safe Europe without an independent Ukraine.” — Tusk in Kyiv
2 hours
„You Will Not Be Alone.” — Tusk in Kyiv with a Message to Ukrainians
2 hours
„We are available.” — Tusk declares aid for Ukraine following Russian attacks on energy infrastructure
4 hours
Żurek: We will ask the USA for the classified part of the Epstein files
4 hours
„We Already Have the Personnel,” — Żurek on the Team Investigating Polish Links to the Epstein Affair
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state of play
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