state of play: 02/27/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Przyborska: With a "compromise" and abortion referendum, Trzecia Droga is playing to weaken Lewica, Szułdrzyński: Tusk needs exactly this kind of Kaczyński, aggressive, enraged

Łukasz Mężyk

-- MACRON HAS NOT RULED OUT EUROPE SENDING SOLDIERS TO UKRAINE. DURING A MEETING OF 20 EUROPEAN LEADERS IN PARIS, FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON SPOKE ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF EUROPEAN COUNTRIES SENDING SOLDIERS TO UKRAINE. https://www.rp.pl/dyplomacja/art39906241-emmanuel-macron-nie-wykluczyl-ze-europa-wysle-zolnierzy-na-ukraine -- POLITICAL PLAN FOR TUESDAY: TUSK AT THE V4 SUMMIT IN PRAGUE, HOŁOWNIA IN KRAKOW, FURTHER HEARINGS BEFORE THE ETHICS COMMITTEE ON THE VISA AFFAIR - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/02/27/ -- LEADERSHIP CHANGE: CIVIC COALITION SURPASSES PIS - RZ SURVEY: “In a new IBRiS poll for Rzeczpospolita, Civic Coalition is in first place, garnering 32.6 percent support. PiS's ratings are falling. Back in January, Jarosław Kaczyński's party could count on 33.9 percent support. Now – 30.1 percent, meaning a drop of 3.8 percentage points. In third place, unchanged – it's still Trzecia Droga, but with a result 2.2 percentage points lower compared to January, currently at 14.7 percent. In February, Lewica can count on 8.7 percent (in January, 9.3 percent, a drop of 0.6 percentage points). Konfederacja closes the field with 7.6 percent. This means an increase of 1.3 percentage points. 6.3 percent are undecided.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39902391-nowy-sondaz-i-zmiana-lidera-koalicja-obywatelska-wyprzedza-pis -- POLL HEAD-TO-HEAD BETWEEN PO AND PIS. HOŁOWNIA HAS REASONS TO WORRY - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Trzecia Droga has failed to permanently convince that it will be a different quality worth investing in. In this sense, Donald Tusk needs exactly this kind of Jarosław Kaczyński, aggressive, enraged, frustrated, as a counterweight to the October 15 coalition. But the fact that Kaczyński remains a reference point for Platforma and Tusk himself means that PiS is still holding strong. A too-rapid collapse of PiS could cause a portion of the moderately right-wing electorate to shift to Trzecia Droga, which is not at all convenient for Platforma. Therefore, in the coming months, it will invest in polarization, which will certainly be served by the work of parliamentary committees, providing fuel for grilling PiS.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39902971-michal-szuldrzynski-sondazowa-mijanka-po-i-pis-holownia-ma-powody-do-niepokoju -- RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI HAS UNDERGONE AN AMAZING METAMORPHOSIS. TODAY HE CAN BE COMPARED TO CHURCHILL, PERHAPS IT IS TIME TO CONSIDER HIS PRESIDENTIAL RUN? - PAWEŁ ŁEPKOWSKI IN RZ: “Many people will likely be outraged by this lofty comparison of Radosław Sikorski to Winston Churchill, but I see in the head of Polish diplomacy the seed of a new potential that our political class needs. Sikorski in the 2.0 version from 2024 is nothing like the smug know-it-all from the time of the Civic Coalition presidential primaries in March 2010. He is a developed politician, excellent at using factual and rational arguments. (...) Would I want Poland to have such a president? Given the flood of mediocrity in Polish public life and the commonness and stereotyping of the Polish political class, I see in Sikorski a personality that stands out.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39902641-pawel-lepkowski-radoslaw-sikorski-przeszedl-niesamowita-metamorfoze-dzis-mozna-go-porownywac-do-churchilla -- WHEN DONALD TUSK WRITES "WE HAVE IT!" TODAY, ANNOUNCING NEARLY PLN 600 BILLION FOR POLAND, PIS PUTS ON THE FACE OF A NEIGHBOR WHO HARDLY HIDES ENVY SEEING A NEW CAR UNDER HIS BLOCK - MAREK RABIJ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “When Donald Tusk writes 'we have it!' today, announcing nearly PLN 600 billion for Poland, PiS puts on the face of a neighbor who hardly hides envy seeing a new car under his block. Politicians from the former ruling camp still maintain that the €60 billion allocated for Poland in the KPO and an additional €76 billion blocked from EU cohesion funds will not have the same significance for the economy and Polish social life as EU funds had in the early years of membership. 'Brukselka' – to use the famous term of the then head of PSL – covered expenditure on new investments even up to 80 percent at that time. Poland can indeed afford more than 20 years ago, but €137 billion is still close to $149 billion, which is conservatively speaking 20 percent of Poland's GDP last year.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/krajowy-plan-odbudowy-na-co-pojda-pieniadze-186338 -- WITH A "COMPROMISE" AND ABORTION REFERENDUM, TRZECIA DROGA IS PLAYING TO WEAKEN LEWICA - KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “The proposals for a 'compromise' and a referendum, and on the other hand, the bill presented by Civic Coalition, are politically very unfavorable for Lewica. (...) Holding onto long-submitted bills for another month, postponing consideration of the abortion issue, presenting a 'compromise' as a life-saving bill – all of this is a visible game to politically weaken Lewica, whose every action turns out to be ineffective. Civic Coalition taking over Lewica's postulates, a poor election result, no provisions regarding issues crucial for Lewica in the coalition agreement, Razem not joining the government, Lewica's abortion bills not being considered, and finally, Donald Tusk's withdrawal from the coalition agreement before the local government elections – all of this, despite a few good ministerial positions, does not look like a string of successes.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/z-kompromisem-i-referendum-aborcyjnym-trzecia-droga-gra-na-oslabienie-lewicy/ -- ELECTORAL GAME IN PO. GRUPIŃSKI HAS A PLAN, JAŚKOWIAK IS UNSATISFIED, WARSAW IS IMPROVING LISTS - TOMASZ NYCZKA IN GW: “His party rivals, the head of PO in Poznań, MP Bartosz Zawieja, and the head of Wielkopolska PO, Senator Rafał Grupiński, had a decisive influence on the shape of the lists. As politicians told us, judging by the list, it was evident that Jaśkowiak's people were cut out of it. In turn, Zawieja's people received good positions, precisely at the expense of Jaśkowiak's collaborators.” https://poznan.wyborcza.pl/poznan/7,36001,30739087,wyborcza-rozgrywka-w-po-grupinski-ma-plan-jaskowiak-niezadowolony.html -- MANY OF THE FARMERS' DEMANDS ARE JUSTIFIED, BUT NOT ALL. THE GOVERNMENT MUST THEREFORE CLEARLY STATE WHAT IT CAN ACHIEVE AND WHEN, AND WHAT IS A DEMAND CURRENTLY UNREALISTIC TO FULFILL - KRYSTYNA NASZKOWSKA IN GW: “It is not Siekierski's role to wander around blockades; he has a whole staff of deputy ministers for that, they can talk to the farmers and explain the situation. Siekierski should be sitting in Brussels and sorting things out there. I understand the government's concerns about incurring the farmers' displeasure, especially just before the elections. But such ostrich politics leads to nothing good. It must be stated plainly to the farmers what the government can achieve and within what timeframe, and what is a demand that is currently unrealistic to fulfill. Simply and clearly, that's what farmers expect. Merely agreeing with them that their demands are justified only earns points for various extremists and fuels anti-Ukrainian sentiments.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30739485,protesty-rolnikow-dosc-przytakiwania-zacznijmy-rozmawiac-powaznie.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Paweł Szefernaker, Roman Giertych, Robert Socha, Andrzej Folwarczny.

Łukasz Mężyk