-- ON THE SECOND ANNIVERSARY OF RUSSIA'S AGGRESSION AGAINST UKRAINE, 300POLITYKA PUBLISHES AN EXCERPT FROM A BOOK BY PAWEŁ RESZKA PUBLISHED BY WIELKA LITERA. THE BOOK CAN BE PURCHASED ON THE PUBLISHER'S WEBSITE. https://300polityka.pl/news/2024/02/24/fragment-ksiazki-pawla-reszki-wstrzymywano-ruch-bo-on-skonczyl-prace-na-kremlu-i-wyjezdzal-do-rezydencji-zatrzymywano-miasto-dla-jednego-czlowieka-tak-jest-zawsze-zmieniaja-si/ -- IF, AS I FEAR, THE NEW PRESIDENT DECIDES TO DISMANTLE THE POLICY OF SOLIDARITY WITH UKRAINE, AND INDIRECTLY WITH EUROPE, THE LAW AND JUSTICE PARTY (PiS) WILL BE PRESENTED AS CO-RESPONSIBLE FOR SUCH A TURN OF EVENTS - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “And what if Trump wins? Perhaps Tarczyński believes he is making a high bid. The Republican, flattered by this support, will want to reciprocate with a benevolent attitude towards Poland's interests. But, firstly, why would he grant anything to Tusk's Poland, which has shown it doesn't love him? Secondly, Trump has proven many times that gratitude is not his main virtue. If, as I fear, the new president decides to dismantle the policy of solidarity with Ukraine, and indirectly with Europe, PiS will be presented as co-responsible for such a turn of events. In light of greater integration with Western politicians like Marine Le Pen, everything will fall into a logical whole.” -- IT IS DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND WHY PiS IS GETTING INVOLVED IN AN ADVENTURE WITH UNKNOWN CONSEQUENCES, ONE OF WHICH MAY BE THE UNDERMINING OF WASHINGTON'S PRO-UKRAINIAN AND ANTI-RUSSIAN LINE - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN RZ: “It is difficult to understand why PiS is buying a pig in a poke. Why is it getting involved in an adventure with unknown consequences, one of which may be the undermining of Washington's pro-Ukrainian and anti-Russian line? As I understand it, in the name of a fictional sense of having bet on the winner. How useful is that in domestic politics?” -- FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF CURRENT THREATS, THE CHOICE BETWEEN BIDEN AND TRUMP SHOULD BE AT LEAST NEUTRAL FOR THE POLISH RIGHT, AND EVEN FAVOR THE DEMOCRATS - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN RZ: “From the perspective of current threats, the choice between Biden and Trump should be at least neutral for the Polish right, and even favor the Democrats. It is the Democratic president who seems to be seeking to maintain strong protection of NATO's eastern flank. He may have too few cards to maintain this line, but why participate in burying it? Trump, admittedly, gave us some new American soldiers during his term, but it is not a foregone conclusion that he will follow this path again, because he is unpredictable.” -- FOR THE "FRONT-LINE" STATES OF THE UNION, MAINTAINING THE CURRENT SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE A VITAL INTEREST. REPLACING IT WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS AN EXPERIMENT WITH UNKNOWN CONSEQUENCES - STATES ZAREMBA IN RZ: “At the moment, the USA bears 70 percent of the financial responsibility for common defense, while on the other hand, Germany is struggling with growing economic difficulties, and all Western EU states are struggling with a creeping immigration crisis. It is easier to break something than to find an effective equivalent for the current security system. For Spain, the Netherlands, or even Germany, the Russian threat is an abstraction. However, freeing oneself from American tutelage is a symbolic success, especially for Berlin. For the "front-line" states of the Union, maintaining the current system seems to be a matter of vital interest. Replacing it with another system is an experiment with unknown consequences.” https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39886261-donald-trump-utracony-sojusznik -- THE FARMERS' PROTESTS REMIND US, HOWEVER, THAT EVEN THE MOST SUCCESSFUL ACCOUNTING OF PiS, EVEN THE MOST SCANDALOUS "PAYSLIPS OF HORROR" FROM WORONICZ, FROM STATE-OWNED COMPANIES, FROM RIGHT-WING FOUNDATIONS AND ASSOCIATIONS - ALL THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH EVEN FOR A FEW MONTHS - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “However, the farmers' protests remind us that even the most successful reckoning with PiS, even the most scandalous 'pay slips of horror' from Woronicz, from state-owned companies, from right-wing foundations and associations - all this will not be enough even for a few months, especially in the eyes of less committed, undecided, and capricious voters. It won't be enough for local elections, let alone presidential elections or the survival of a coalition government for a full term.” -- THE EFFECTIVENESS OF HOLDING PiS ACCOUNTABLE FALLS TO SECOND PLACE, EVEN IF IT DOES NOT FALL FROM THE COALITION'S PRIORITY PODIUM - CEZARY MICHALSKI CONTINUES: “In this new (though not at all surprising) situation, the effectiveness of holding PiS accountable falls to second place, even if it doesn't fall from the coalition's priority podium. And Roman Giertych (with all due appreciation for all his talents) becomes a less key politician than an effective Minister of Agriculture, an effective Minister of Finance, and an effective Minister of Labor and Social Affairs.” -- IF TUSK FAILS TO GOVERN EFFECTIVELY, THE NEXT IN LINE FOR POWER WILL BE AN UNAMBIGUOUSLY ANTI-EUROPEAN, UNAMBIGUOUSLY ANTI-NATO RIGHT - MICHALSKI WRITES FURTHER IN INTERIA: “If Tusk fails to govern effectively, even the most successful reckonings with PiS will be of little use. If Tusk fails to govern effectively, the next in line for power will be an unambiguously anti-European, unambiguously anti-NATO right, unambiguously handing Poland over to Russia, even if it waves the banner of 'total sovereignty' along the way.” -- I MYSELF KEEP ASKING MYSELF IF THE THIRD WAY HAS SUCH POTENTIAL - CEZARY MICHALSKI'S CONCLUSION: “Of course, one can imagine a right-wing force that will replace Tusk, which will be more centrist, more pro-Western, even genuinely conservative, not alt-right. I myself keep asking myself if the Third Way has such potential, if someone from the presidential camp, or even someone in PiS, has such potential. I try to convince myself, but it doesn't work out well.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-miesiaca-miodowego-rzadu-tuska-nigdy-nie-bylo,nId,7349758 -- FOR KACZYŃSKI, THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS TO HAVE COMPLETE CONTROL OVER EVERY PART OF THE PiS CAMP. HENCE, THE CREATION OF A STRONG PRIVATE MEDIA IS SEEN AS A SIGNIFICANT RISK - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Many people wonder why the PiS leader did nothing for eight years to build a strong private television station within his sphere of influence. The reason is that for Kaczyński, the most important thing is to have complete control over every part of the PiS camp. Hence, he perceives the creation of a strong private media outlet as a significant risk. He is convinced that sooner or later it would grow into an alternative center of power to Nowogrodzka, if not intentionally, then naturally – simply, someone else, not him, would be responsible for communicating with PiS voters. Such a medium could review the president's actions and even attempt a dethronization. No, he did not want such a risk.” -- WHEN JACEK KURSKI, FORMER TVP PRESIDENT, LEARNED THAT MATYSZKOWICZ WAS CHARMING KACZYŃSKI WITH THE VISION OF A NEW TELEVISION, HE WENT ON THE ATTACK - WIELOWIEYSKA WRITES IN GW: “When Jacek Kurski, former TVP president, learned that Matyszkowicz was charming Kaczyński with the vision of a new television, he launched an attack. With a group of people from TVP, he wrote a report which indicated that PiS lost the elections partly due to Matyszkowicz, who poorly formatted the television message during the election campaign. The Gazeta.pl portal was the first to report on the report. The report is intended to bring Kurski back into the game and secure him a place on the PiS list for the European Parliament.” -- SOLORZ HAS ALREADY MET WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF THE NEW GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING MINISTER RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI, WHO OFFICIALLY RECEIVED HIM AT THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS - WIELOWIEYSKA WRITES: “For a long time, Polsat played such a role for the 'PiS light' circle – meaning viewers who supported PiS, but not uncritically, sympathizing with its ideas and message, but not fanatically loyal, expecting critical reporting from journalists. Dorota Gawryluk, associated with PiS, was the head of information and commentary there, but she was very reserved in expressing her opinions publicly. However, with the change of government, Polsat's owner, Zygmunt Solorz, dismissed her from her position to signal to Tusk's government that he was willing to negotiate. He has already met with representatives of the new government, including Minister Radosław Sikorski, who officially received him at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Sikorski spoke with the management of various television stations, officially – about the role of media in a situation of external threat.” -- IT IS MORE ABOUT PRESENTING VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES AVAILABLE TO SOLORZ THAN A REAL SCENARIO - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “Nowogrodzka was surprised by the information about Gawryluk's potential candidacy and considers the spread of this rumor a serious threat. Although Gawryluk currently received only 1% support in one poll – Stanowski has more, 3%, and intends to promote his Kanał Zero by running for president – if her name remains in circulation, it will solidify the association 'Gawryluk – candidate' in the public consciousness. And in subsequent polls, it will begin to harm the position of PiS politicians included in these surveys. Low ratings will negatively impact the morale of the apparatus. However, nothing is decided here yet. It is more about presenting various possibilities available to Solorz than a real scenario.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30714932,nie-sakiewicz-i-nie-karnowscy-co-bedzie-tajemnicza-duza-telewizja.html -- THE CLUMSINESS OF PROPAGANDA, BRUTAL ATTACKS ON THE OPPOSITION DETERRED MORE LUKEWARM SYMPATHIZERS OF THE RIGHT AND THE UNDECIDED, AND POWERFULLY MOBILIZED THE ANTI-PiS ELECTORATE, GREATLY CONTRIBUTING TO THE OPPOSITION'S VICTORY - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “PiS has an electorate of around 7.5 million (2023 elections) to 8.1 million (2019 elections). How can one assume that TVP could have influenced the result with its just over 2 million viewers? State television was watched by committed voters who would have supported Kaczyński's party anyway, no matter what. However, the clumsiness of the propaganda, the brutal attacks on the opposition, deterred more lukewarm right-wing sympathizers and the undecided, and powerfully mobilized the anti-PiS electorate, greatly contributing to the opposition's victory. This is indicated by the record turnout in the elections - 74%.” -- WHY DID THEY GO TO THE ELECTIONS EN MASSE TO CHANGE THE GOVERNMENT, ALTHOUGH THEY WERE MORE PASSIVE BEFORE? THERE WAS QUITE A LOT OF IT - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “The key to PiS's defeat is also the high turnout in last year's elections. What mobilized Poles against the Morawiecki government, apart from the events of 2020 and 2021? Why did they go to the polls en masse to change the government, although they were more passive before? There was quite a lot of it. - Lies and aggressive manipulations by TVP; - Women's fear seeing the consequences of the Przyłębska Tribunal's ruling. Due to cases of pregnant women dying, people realized that changing the law drastically increased the risk of medical malpractice in extreme cases; - The unchecked expansion of the apparatus, nepotism on an unprecedented scale, and the siphoning of public funds into the pockets of PiS activists; - The deepening conflict with the European Union and the blocking of funds from the KPO, while other countries had long been using these funds; - Worsening living conditions for many families due to high inflation; - Mateusz Morawiecki's "New Deal," which hit small businesses; - Lex Tusk;” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30732539,raport-o-tvp-ma-oczarowac-kaczynskiego-jacek-kurski-chce-wrocic.html -- WE HAVE 9 TO 10 MILLION VOTERS IN POLAND WITH RIGHT-WING, CONSERVATIVE, NATIONAL VIEWS (SOMETIMES WITH A LIBERTARIAN EDGE). THESE PEOPLE SHOULD HAVE THEIR OWN MEDIA, AND IF NOT, IT CANNOT END WELL, AS IT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING FRUSTRATION AND INCREASING AGGRESSION - MARIUSZ CIEŚLIK IN RZ: “If we sum up the electorates of PiS and Konfederacja, we get well over 9 million. And there are even more radical voters for whom both are too soft. So we have 9 to 10 million voters in Poland with right-wing, conservative, national views (sometimes with a libertarian edge). These people should have their own media. Their views should also be represented in TVP and Polish Radio, and the idea of their media exclusion is fundamentally anti-democratic. Moreover, this cannot end well, as it will result in increasing frustration and increasing aggression. And this will fuel a spiral of verbal violence even more extremely than today. And let's just hope it stays at the verbal level.” https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39886411-mariusz-cieslik-wyborcy-prawicy-powinni-miec-swoje-media -- THEY HAVE KACZYŃSKI'S FLAWS, BUT NOT HIS VIRTUES - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “I would summarize their candidacies with the remark I used to dismiss Ziobro's past ambitions: 'They have all of Kaczyński's flaws, but none of his virtues.' The current chairman is aging, doesn't always hit the mark, and too often allows himself to be provoked by Tusk. But he used to be a visionary. None of the politicians mentioned can be said to be that. One could even argue that these two, in particular, symbolize the face of PiS that lost the most: one strongly focused on ideology presented in a noisy manner. Of course, distinctiveness can be an advantage in today's tabloidized politics. But it must be accompanied by something more. It is possible that there is no one in the PiS leadership who combines distinctiveness with that something more.” -- THE REPORTS OF SOME GREAT FERMENT, SYSTEMATICALLY REPEATED IN "GAZETA WYBORCZA," "NEWSWEEK," OR "ONET," ARE EXAGGERATED - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “So does this mean that the PiS leader is currently evoking widespread enthusiasm in the party apparatus, in the parliamentary club? It is always difficult to find such positive emotions in a camp that has lost. Nevertheless, the reports of some great ferment, systematically repeated in "Gazeta Wyborcza," "Newsweek," or "Onet," are exaggerated.” -- KACZYŃSKI'S FACE, TOO OFTEN DISTORTED BY ANGER, PREVENTS THE UTILIZATION OF AREAS WHERE PiS ACTUALLY WON THE NARRATIVE WAR, SUCH AS THE DISPUTE OVER MAJOR INVESTMENTS, LED BY CPK - ZAREMBA WRITES: “There are areas where PiS has essentially won the narrative war, for example, in the dispute over major investments, led by CPK, where even some non-right-wing circles sided with them. But it is difficult to leverage this in a besieged fortress. Kaczyński's face, too often distorted by anger, prevents this from being utilized; his stories about the rulers being capable of political crimes reflect the intensity of the conflict, but do not lead to victory.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-kaczynski-na-emeryture-czarnek-lub-jaki-na-jego-miejsce,nId,7349503 -- CZARNEK IS EVEN MORE OF THE SAME, ONLY MORE SO - KATARYNA IN RZ: “And she is unlikely to be helped by Przemysław Czarnek, who is being promoted as a party reformer, even if he is very rhetorically skilled and intellectually surpasses most of the party mediocrities gathered around the president. With all due appreciation for the former Minister of Education's charisma, he does not give the impression of a person capable of deeper reflection, let alone deep transformation. And this is precisely what the party needs to first understand why it lost, and then convincingly show that if it ever gets another chance from the voters, it will know how to govern differently. Czarnek is even more of the same, only more so.” https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39886431-kataryna-andrzej-nowak-udowodnil-ze-prawica-nie-dysponuje-zadnym-intelektualnym-zapleczem\ -- POLES WERE MADE TO BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE NO COSTS OF WAR, AND THE POLISH GOVERNMENT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PUTINFLATION. FARMERS WERE INCITED BY STORIES OF THE AUTHORITIES' ALLEGED INACTIVITY - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Poles were told that there were no costs of war and that the Polish government was responsible for Putin-inflation. Farmers were incited by stories of the authorities' alleged inactivity towards the flood of Ukrainian grain – when that government had the courage to impose an import embargo against Brussels' wishes and managed to build a regional coalition around the issue. No one will tell the farmers openly that the people in power have already signed climate pacts and must repay electoral debts to Berlin and Brussels.” -- THIS IS, UNFORTUNATELY, ONLY THE BEGINNING OF A BLACK SERIES OF SUCH CUTS, THE BEGINNING OF THE ERA OF THE POLICE BATON. BECAUSE VIOLENCE IN POLITICS IS ADDICTIVE - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Today, this knot of lies and inflated expectations surrounding agriculture and the border cannot be untangled without facing the real and costly political price. It can only be attempted to be cut with a police baton. And this is happening before our eyes. This is, unfortunately, only the beginning of a black series of such cuts, the beginning of the era of the police baton. Because violence in politics is addictive.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/682779-czas-policyjnej-palki -- TO PREVENT THE UNITED RIGHT FROM FALLING APART, THE CHAIRMAN ANNOUNCED THAT HE IS READY TO REMAIN CHAIRMAN LONGER THAN PLANNED - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “PiS politician: - When Jarosław is gone, the party will fall apart because everyone will go their separate ways. There is no single person who can attract everyone. Others argue that the PiS camp has a path similar to that of Civic Platform. That is, sinking in polls, seeking to open up to new environments, building coalition capacity, rebranding (just as PO became present as Civic Coalition and changed its logo to a white and red heart).” -- WE ARE STILL ROLLING, BUT BY INERTIA - A WELL-KNOWN PiS POLITICIAN QUOTED BY GĄDEK: “A well-known PiS politician: - We will fall apart in a few years. Both as the United Right and as PiS itself. People are simply pissed off by what is happening. No longer upset, but pissed off. First about the Sejm lists and election results, now about the regional assembly lists and poll support. We are still rolling, but by inertia. Another, also from PiS: - Some people are now chickening out. And he adds with a laugh: - I expect departures from PiS, and a book titled 'The End of PiS' will certainly appear, but who will write it is not yet known. But don't worry, we'll survive.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30732754,to-juz-nie-zdenerwowanie-ale-wkur-w-pis-wrze-wiec-kaczynski.html -- NOW OUR POLITICIANS ALSO TRAVEL FOR INSTRUCTIONS, BUT TO BRUSSELS. AND BRUSSELS IS CLOSELY OBSERVING WHAT IS HAPPENING HERE, SIMILAR TO HOW MOSCOW USED TO - MICHAŁ STRĄK IN CONVERSATION WITH ELIZA OLCZYK IN RZ: “Now our politicians also travel for instructions, but to Brussels. And Brussels is closely observing what is happening here, similar to how Moscow used to. In essence, from a geopolitical perspective, there are not many differences between People's Poland and the Third Republic. We were and are a medium-sized country. We aspired and aspire to subjectivity. These two periods differ in their internal political and economic systems.” -- SUCH BREAKTHROUGHS AFFECT US APPROXIMATELY EVERY 30 YEARS – AND WE HAVE JUST REACHED THAT MOMENT. IN MY OPINION, THE FIGHT BETWEEN PiS AND PO WILL NOT LAST LONG - STRĄK CONTINUES WITH OLCZYK IN RZ: “The end of the duopoly that has governed Poland since 2005 is approaching. For now, no commentators – including those with professorial titles – are paying attention to this at all and are not considering what will happen next. Most observers of the political scene believe that what we have is a natural and eternal state. Meanwhile, this state must end, just as the independent rule of the PZPR ended in 1980. I think it will be soon. As I said, such breakthroughs affect us about every 30 years – and we have just reached that moment. In my opinion, the fight between PiS and PO will not last long.” https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39886561-michal-strak-z-punktu-widzenia-geopolityki-nie-ma-wielu-roznic-miedzy-prl-a-iii-rp -- BIRTHDAYS: Janusz Zemke, Krzysztof Garbaczewski. SUNDAY: Danuta Wałęsa, Paweł Piskorski, Andrzej Szarawarski, Zenon Kosiniak-Kamysz, Barbara Sobska.