state of play: 02/21/2024
STATE OF PLAY: Janicki: If today's ruling parties took success for granted, they'd repeat Komorowski's mistake; Kuisz: Entire swaths of the far-right and far-left are on Moscow's leash
-- ON THE THIRD ANNIVERSARY OF THE TRAGIC DEATH OF JAN LITYŃSKI, MAREK BEYLIN REMEMBERS HIS ESSAY ON MIKOŁAJCZYK’S PSL: “Particularly valuable in this spirit was Jan Lityński’s essay ‘PSL. A Model of Resistance,’ which brought back to collective memory the immediate post-war actions of Stanisław Mikołajczyk's Polish People's Party (PSL), the opposition to the communist regime. Lityński, an important figure of the KOR opposition, while reconstructing the two-year epic of the peasant party, shows their defeat in collision with the growing Stalinist terror, yet simultaneously highlights the crucial role this formation played in spreading and strengthening democratic patterns in society.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30719526,nasz-demokratyczny-opor-w-trzecia-rocznice-smierci-jana-litynskiego.html
-- SIENKIEWICZ: I CHANGED THE RDC LIQUIDATOR TO A LESS CONTROVERSIAL PERSON - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/02/21/
-- ONLY WHEN WEAPONS AND AMMUNITION START MASSIVELY REACHING THE FRONT, WITHOUT ALL THE TALK ABOUT FEARS OF ESCALATING THE CONFLICT, CAN WE TALK ABOUT SOME BREAKTHROUGH IN THINKING - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN INTERIA: “Various summit meetings seem to be endless. Ukrainian politicians are pilgrimaging through European capitals. They beg, they threaten, they beg again. In practice, there is no coordination in Europe for supporting Ukraine’s military efforts. Only when weapons and ammunition start massively reaching the front, without all the talk about fears of escalating the conflict, can we speak of some breakthrough in thinking. At the beginning of the full-scale war, we uncovered the empty arsenals of European countries. The astonishment knew no bounds.”
-- ENTIRE SWATHS OF THE FAR-RIGHT OR FAR-LEFT ARE ON MOSCOW'S LEASH, ALMOST SURPASSING THE SCALE OF FORMER COMMUNIST PARTIES - KUISZ CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “Entire swaths of the far-right or far-left are on Moscow's leash, almost surpassing the scale of former communist parties. They oppose illegal immigration – going hand in hand with the same Moscow that orchestrates this illegal emigration through Belarus, Finland, and other places. Hard to connect these dots? Well, apparently the topic turns out to be intellectually too complex.”
-- WE IN COUNTRIES ADJACENT TO RUSSIA ARE STILL WAITING FOR A REAL CHANGE IN THE MENTALITY OF WESTERN SOCIETIES. AND PERHAPS WE WILL NEVER SEE IT - KUISZ CONTINUES: “However, we have too many grand words. Medial pathos and empty talk pour from the mouths of politicians and attack us from social media. We in countries adjacent to Russia are still waiting for a real change in the mentality of Western societies. And perhaps we will never see it.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-czy-smierc-aleksieja-nawalnego-przebudzi-zachod-nie-sadze,nId,7343242
-- "BODNAR'S PLAN" WELL RECEIVED IN BRUSSELS - TOMASZ BIELECKI ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA'S PORTAL: “Minister Adam Bodnar presented his rule of law plan to the remaining 26 EU member states. The European Commission has until the end of February to assess the government of Donald Tusk's application for the first, non-repayable payment from the multi-billion euro National Recovery Plan (KPO) frozen under the PiS government. (...) The European Commission has until the end of February to assess the Tusk government's application for the first non-repayable payment from the KPO. And – as we learn from EU institutions – it looks like this deadline will be met, although talks are ongoing between Warsaw and Brussels regarding legal details. The assessment date could be postponed by a few months, but this would mean there would be no quick disbursement of the first installment, which Warsaw expects in April (nearly 7 billion euros), and the unblocking of the rest of the KPO (around 60 billion euros). The remainder is to be disbursed in subsequent installments until 2026 after meeting standard conditions mainly related to green and digital transformation.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/2246241,1,plan-bodnara-dobrze-przyjety-w-brukseli-kiedy-polska-odzyska-zamrozone-miliardy-euro
-- IT IS EVIDENT THAT THIS IS A DECISIVE BATTLE WHOSE OUTCOME WILL SOLIDIFY THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT FOR YEARS OR REVIVE THE STRENGTH OF PIS - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The upcoming presidential campaign is therefore shaping up to be very difficult. For PiS, it means a fight for everything, for political survival, cohesion, and also for the possibility of pardons after anticipated trials and verdicts. The conviction that either Trzaskowski or Hołownia will win must be supported by effort, cooperation, and strong nerves. This will be a battle requiring at least the same commitment as in the last parliamentary elections. The old rule of political pragmatism states: say that the opponent is faltering and is already finished, but don't believe it yourself, because you will lose.”
-- "INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES" ARE UNLIKELY TO TAKE AWAY CORE SUPPORT FROM THE PIS CANDIDATE, BUT IF THE "JOKERS" PLAY THEIR CARDS RIGHT, LIKE KUKIZ IN 2015, WHO LAMBASTED BOTH PIS AND PO, THEN KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY WON'T LOSE ANYTHING FROM THEM - CONTINUES THE FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “'Independent candidates' are unlikely to take away core support from the PiS candidate, unless they are considered sufficiently aligned by a part of the party's electorate to be a competition for, for example, Bocheński. But as long as the jokers play their cards right, like Kukiz in 2015, who lambasted both PiS and PO, Kaczyński's party will not lose anything from them. On the other hand, non-PiS voters, those less determined and politically less sophisticated, may fall into various dilemmas. This whole mechanism was perfectly visible in 2015, when the 'new face of PiS' combined with an 'anti-system candidate,' who after a few years became Kaczyński's appendage, completely dismantled Komorowski's campaign, regardless of his own mistakes.”
-- THE SO-CALLED INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES MORE LIKELY HARMED THE ANTI-PIS CANDIDATES - CONTINUES MARIUSZ JANICKI: “The so-called independent candidates more likely harmed the anti-PiS candidates. After Kukiz came Szymon Hołownia, whose run in 2020 limited Trzaskowski's chances, but did not take votes away from Duda. As a result, the Civic Platform candidate achieved too weak a result in the first round (30.5%) to boost it to over 50% in the second. These nearly 14% for Hołownia proved crucial for Trzaskowski's weaker result, and transferring them in the second round to the victorious opponent was problematic. In 2025, the situation may be even more complicated. In one of the previous polls, Trzaskowski, Morawiecki, and Hołownia had similar results, around 27–28%, but this was before the potential entry of jokers, who can weaken Trzaskowski primarily, but also Hołownia, who is already considered part of the establishment.”
-- IN AN OPTION UNFAVORABLE TO THE DEMOCRATIC COALITION, THE PIS CANDIDATE'S RESULT WOULD BE ABOVE 30% - JANICKI ON THE UNITED SURVEYS POLL: “In an option unfavorable to the democratic coalition, both its candidates might get, for example, around 22–24% each, the PiS contender over 30%, and the rest for jokers and, for instance, the Left candidate. The latest poll from US shows the possibility of such a trend: Hołownia received 24.8%, Morawiecki 24.3%, and Trzaskowski 22.2%. Importantly, in the same survey, Beata Szydło appeared separately with 9% of mentions, and it is known that if it's Morawiecki, it's not Szydło; therefore, the PiS candidate's result would be prepared to be above 30%.”
-- IT IS PRECISELY BECAUSE IT IS SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHAT PEOPLE COULD LIKE ABOUT DUDA – IT IS PROBABLE THAT THIS PHENOMENON MAY REPEAT ITSELF - JANICKI STATES: “One would think that after Duda's case, this is not possible. But one must remember that Duda had a lenient approach for his entire two terms. Those among the non-PiS voters, including columnists, who were delighted with him in 2015, practically always forgave him a lot, constantly placed some hopes in him, claiming that this was still a different, better PiS. The mechanism of fascination with Duda still awaits academic study, as a simple description is powerless here. But it is precisely because it is so hard to understand what people could like about Duda – it is probable that this phenomenon may repeat itself.”
-- IF PIS DOES NOT START TO FALL APART DRAMATICALLY, THE RESULT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IS NOT DECIDED. IF THE PARTIES OF THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT CAMP WERE TO TAKE SUCCESS FOR GRANTED, THEY WOULD MAKE THE MISTAKE OF THE PLATFORM AND KOMOROWSKI'S CAMPAIGN TEAM FROM 2015 - MARIUSZ JANICKI CONTINUES IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “If PiS does not start to fall apart dramatically, the result of the presidential elections is not decided. If the parties of the current government camp were to take success for granted, they would make the mistake of the Platform and Komorowski's campaign team from 2015. Those elections were a terrible neglect by the democratic camp, a manifestation of unjustified arrogance and incompetence. The staged elections in 2020, after the envelope scandal, with a change of the Platform's candidate, turned out little better overall, even though Duda, after four years of 'Adrian-ism' and signing anti-democratic laws, seemed an easier target. But it must be remembered that PiS significantly lost support only once, in December 2020, after Kaczyński's unfortunate ruling by the Przyłębska Tribunal on abortion. Until the 2023 elections, PiS did not fall below that 8-point loss. Tusk and his coalition partners' main effort went into mobilizing their own voters, but they did not take supporters away from PiS. The governing coalition's resources are therefore defined; wasting them as a result of internal struggles and handing over the presidency would be political suicide.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2246079,1,czy-wyborcy-zlapia-sie-na-ten-sam-manewr-pis-4-kluczowe-pytania-przed-wyborami-prezydenckimi.read
-- PHOTOS FROM THE FARMERS' PROTEST WHERE UKRAINIAN GRAIN IS BEING DUMPED AT THE BORDER ARE A HUGE GIFT TO KREMLIN PROPAGANDA. THERE CAN BE NO SHADOW OF A DOUBT THAT POLISH AUTHORITIES SUPPORT SUCH ACTIONS BY PROTESTERS - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Just before the second anniversary of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, images are going out into the world of Polish farmers destroying grain from a country fighting Russia. For Kremlin propaganda, there can be nothing better. And it also reflects poorly on our country. After all, restoring Poland's image in the world was one of the promises of the October 15 coalition.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39872221-michal-szuldrzynski-wysypanie-zboza-na-tory-to-wizerunkowa-katastrofa-polski
-- PIS IS BETTING ON THE GLOBAL ALT-RIGHT, READY TO SWALLOW THE PRO-RUSSIAN FROG - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “This shift of PiS towards the alt-right, towards the pro-Russian, anti-European, climate-change-denying right, is deeply harmful to Poland for three reasons. Firstly, by betting on pro-Putin forces and completely ignoring their pro-Russian stance in the name of commonality within contemporary 'culture wars,' PiS is unleashing processes that will reduce Poland's short-term security on the crucial eastern flank. Secondly, by playing to build a faction in the European Parliament that will not so much 'fight EU centralization' as dismantle the European project from within, Kaczyński's party is acting against Poland's long-term, civilizational interest, which is the firm embedding of our country in the political and economic structures of the West.”
-- THE PLAN PRESENTED BY DOMINIK TARCZYŃSKI MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE ACTIVATION OF THE 20% PROTOCOL - MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “In turn, for the truly anti-European electorate, the party will simply be unbelievable – they remember Morawiecki too well agreeing to the recovery fund, the milestones, and the conditionality principle. In short, the plan presented by Dominik Tarczyński may turn out to be the activation of the 20% protocol and a path to losing not only the European elections but also the presidential elections in a year.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/pis-stawia-na-globalny-alt-right/
-- JUDGE IGOR TULEYA STATES THAT JUDGES, INCLUDING HIMSELF, MAY HAVE CONSENTED TO THE USE OF PEGASUS THROUGH THE MANIPULATION OF THE SERVICES - FRAGMENT OF A CONVERSATION WITH MATEUSZ MIŁKOWSKI IN RZ:
“How many decisions regarding the use of surveillance could you make?
- I've been in the profession for 14 years, so it could have been around a thousand decisions.
- Was consent for the use of Pegasus among that thousand?
- I believe I ruled on such cases. It is very likely that I gave consent for the use of Pegasus without being aware of which system would be used by the services.
- How do you feel about that?
- I feel exploited. The justice system has also been exploited. This is a dirty game by the services, state institutions, in which courts, but above all citizens, should have trust. This is a terrible decline in citizens' trust in institutions, a decline in the authority of the state. This matter is further proof of how courts were treated in the state and that one can actually doubt whether they were truly the third branch of power. (...) Judges learned about the existence of such a system only from the media. It must also be remembered that a court, when considering an application for the use of operational surveillance, relies on scant material provided by the services. Furthermore, there are no such evidentiary restrictions in these proceedings as in criminal proceedings.”
https://www.rp.pl/sady-i-trybunaly/art39874451-sedzia-igor-tuleya-mozliwe-ze-zgodzilem-sie-na-pegasusa
-- PRZEMYSŁAW CZARNEK'S RATINGS ARE RISING RAPIDLY IN PIS. - HE HAS SOMETHING HIS COLLEAGUES LACK: CHARISMA. HE KNOWS HOW TO MAKE THE PIS BASE LOVE HIM - KAMILA BARANOWSKA IN INTERIA: “- Czarnek has something that most PiS politicians lack: charisma. He knows how to make the PiS base love him. Unfortunately, he won't convince anyone else beyond that base, because he is too radical, and that is his main flaw – admits our interlocutor from PiS.”
-- KACZYŃSKI MAY CHOOSE A MUCH LESS COMPLICATED SCENARIO. HE WILL SIMPLY RETAIN THE TITLE OF HONORARY CHAIRMAN AND CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE PARTY - BARANOWSKA CONTINUES: “PiS MPs are discussing that the party chairman could be sent to such a Council in the PiS version, along with all the 'most deserving' comrades who today - in the opinion of many party colleagues - are more harmful to the party's image than helpful. - I would see all the Suskis, Terleckis, Krasulskis, Macierewiczs, and that whole crowd there – lists one PiS MP. However, Chairman Kaczyński may also choose a much less complicated scenario. He will simply retain the title of honorary chairman and will continue to control the party, even if he hands over the daily, current matters to someone younger.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-komu-prezes-pis-odda-partie-moze-byc-niespodzianka,nId,7345069
-- SUTRYK'S CAMPAIGN ANNOUNCES THAT TUSK'S SUPPORT IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS FOR WROCŁAW HAS BEEN AGREED UPON - MAGDALENA KOZIOŁ IN GW: “- We already know who Donald Tusk will support; after the call from Warsaw, everything became clear – says one of the close associates of Wrocław's Mayor Jacek Sutryk. He assures that this unofficial information will soon become an official fact. The PO board and national council are meeting this week, so the decision is expected to be final. A date has even been set: on Wednesday, February 21, Sutryk is to travel to Warsaw, where, in the flash of cameras at a conference, Civic Platform leader Donald Tusk is to name him as the candidate in the fight for the city hall. Supporters of the head of Lower Silesian PO, Michał Jaros, are skeptical about the dissemination of such news.”
https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,30718426,sztab-sutryka-przekonuje-ze-tusk-jego-poprze-na-prezydenta.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Jan Krzysztof Kelus (82), Czesław Fiedorowicz, Kazimierz Kleina, Małgorzata Potocka, Krzysztof Mroziewicz.
live
47 min
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„In My Opinion, Yes.” — Glapiński on Whether March is a Good Time for an Interest Rate Cut
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Glapiński: All Forecasts Indicate Inflation's Return to Target in Poland is Sustainable
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