state of play: 02/20/2024

POLITICAL GAME: Trzaskowski: I am an enemy of moves that could further deepen polarization. I certainly have no intention of doing anything with those monuments. Śmiłowicz: It's possible the European Parliament elections will be PiS's last in its current f

Łukasz Mężyk

-- POLITICAL PLAN FOR TUESDAY: THE GOVERNMENT ON THE NATIONAL COUNCIL OF THE JUDICIARY, NITRAS TO ANNOUNCE GENDER PARITY IN SPORTS ASSOCIATIONS AND ACCESS TO SCHOOL GYMS AND FIELDS AFTER HOURS, TRZASKOWSKI TO SIGN AGREEMENT FOR CONSTRUCTION OF TRAM LINE TO DWORZEC ZACHODNI, INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEE, KO CONFERENCE WITH LESZCZYNA AND WIELICHOWSKA - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/02/20/ -- FIVE YEARS AGO – PARADOXICALLY – IT WAS EASIER. AT THAT TIME, THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS WERE A MOMENT WHEN IT WAS POSSIBLE TO SHOW THE LAW AND JUSTICE PARTY THAT POLES ON A LOCAL LEVEL CHOOSE DEMOCRACY - RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “It is natural that I would like to achieve the best possible result, but we will see what the determination of Warsaw residents will be – what the turnout will be. Everything depends on it. Five years ago – paradoxically – it was easier. At that time, the local government elections were a moment when it was possible to show the Law and Justice party that Poles on a local level choose democracy. There was total mobilization, which is why such good results were possible for many local government officials. If there is similar mobilization and turnout today, I hope for a good result. It also depends on whether we manage to convince voters that local government elections are as important as the elections on October 15 – that it is another stage of regaining democracy and that winning these elections will be an opportunity for the complete disintegration of PiS and populist circles. PiS is so focused on positions and money that if the current ruling coalition and independent candidates win in all regions, most cities and towns, and in rural Poland, PiS will start to crumble. Mobilization in large cities will give us much-needed momentum.” -- WARSAW IS A TRENDSETTER – WE SET THE TRENDS WHEN IT COMES TO FREE NURSERIES, FIGHTING AND HELPING YOUTH AMIDST THE COLLAPSE OF CHILD PSYCHIATRY, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES - TRZASKOWSKI CONTINUES AT NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “I will answer by saying what these elections mean to me. After the stage of tidying up the mess and destroying democracy by PiS, we must deal with solving real problems. Warsaw is a trendsetter – we set the trends when it comes to free nurseries, fighting and helping youth amidst the collapse of child psychiatry, renewable energy sources, and many other issues.” -- I AM AN ENEMY OF MOVES THAT COULD FURTHER DEEPEN POLARIZATION. I CERTAINLY HAVE NO INTENTION OF DOING ANYTHING WITH THOSE MONUMENTS - TRZASKOWSKI ALSO STATES IN RZ: “I am an enemy of moves that could further deepen polarization. I certainly have no intention of doing anything with those monuments – they stand there, and let them continue to stand. Any moving of them would stir up immense, unnecessary emotions and deepen the rift that politics has dug in Polish society.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39866351-rafal-trzaskowski-naprawde-nie-mamy-sie-czego-wstydzic-warszawa-jest-trendsetterem -- ANDRZEJ NOWAK'S APPEAL IS EVEN MORE PAINFUL FOR KACZYŃSKI BECAUSE IT IS GARNISHED WITH ALL THE PHRASES PLEASING TO THE RIGHT-WING EAR - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Andrzej Nowak's appeal is even more painful for Kaczyński because it is garnished with all the phrases pleasing to the right-wing ear – about how evil Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform are, about how the "coalition of December 13" is breaking the constitution, etc. But the worst thing for Kaczyński is that from the perspective of the right-wing's interests, Professor Nowak is right. If PiS had chosen another, younger leader, it might have had a chance to distance itself from the "mistakes and distortions" of 2015–2023 and build a completely new image for the party before the 2025 elections, and certainly before the 2027 elections.” -- KRAKOW HISTORIAN ANDRZEJ NOWAK IS RIGHT: THE SOONER JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI LEAVES, THE GREATER CHANCES PIŚ WILL HAVE TO WIN ELECTIONS AGAIN - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN RZ: “After October 15, PiS continues to make only mistakes, and if it continues like this, it will suffer a shameful defeat in the local and European elections, and will have a fatal starting point before the presidential elections – another poll shows that a PiS candidate would not even make it to the second round. After such defeats, the party will be in complete disarray, and the person who takes over its helm will have to build everything anew. Therefore, if Jarosław Kaczyński wants his party to win again someday, he should listen to Nowak's appeal as soon as possible and step down.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39866641-michal-szuldrzynski-dlaczego-krytyka-prof-nowaka-jest-dla-jaroslawa-kaczynskiego-szczegolnie-bolesna -- KACZYŃSKI CHANGES HIS MIND ON TVP. HE GAVE THE GREEN LIGHT TO PARTY RANKS - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “As "Wyborcza" has unofficially learned, Jarosław Kaczyński has just given the green light to visits to public media. For now, at the regional level. Especially since the election campaign for the local government elections in April is underway. - In many towns, regional television or radio, alongside the local Polska Press newspaper, are the only media. We are harming ourselves with this boycott, says our source from PiS.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30717340,kaczynski-zmienia-zdanie-w-sprawie-tvp-dal-zielone-swiatlo.html -- MONIKA PAWŁOWSKA RETURNS TO THE SEJM. AGAINST KACZYŃSKI'S DEMAND - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “Former PiS MP Monika Pawłowska is returning to the Sejm. According to Gazeta.pl's information, Pawłowska is to inform the Sejm Chancellery quickly that she accepts the parliamentary mandate after Mariusz Kamiński (PiS). Our sources in the Law and Justice party firmly state that Pawłowska will not be admitted to the PiS parliamentary club. Pawłowska will also not join the PSL club or Poland 2050 – these formations have already ruled out such a possibility.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30715846,monika-pawlowska-wraca-do-sejmu-wbrew-zadaniu-kaczynskiego.html -- WAITING IN BRUSSELS. A WAR IS UNDERWAY IN PIŚ FOR SPOTS ON THE LISTS FOR THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “The European Parliament becomes additionally attractive in a situation where the political future of one's parent party is uncertain. Today, this applies most of all to the Law and Justice party, which after giving up power has found itself in a deep crisis, and the clear confusion of its leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, makes the prospect of regaining power more than vague. Hundreds of activists who are today saying goodbye to their positions in offices and well-paid sinecures in companies, funds, and agencies – know that returning to them will not be quick and they need to find new employment.” -- THOSE WHO HAVE NOT YET TASTED BEING AN MP IN BRUSSELS, BUT WOULD LIKE TO, ARE ALSO THINKING ABOUT RUNNING - TERLECKI, SUSKI, KUCHCIŃSKI, AS WELL AS FORMER PRESIDENTIAL AIDES - ŚMIŁOWICZ CONTINUES: “This group includes prominent PiS politicians: Ryszard Terlecki, Marek Suski, Marek Kuchciński, as well as former presidential aides Marcin Przydacz and Paweł Szrot. There are also former ministers of foreign affairs and their deputies: Zbigniew Rau, Szymon Szynkowski vel Sęk, Paweł Jabłoński, and Arkadiusz Mularczyk.” -- IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS ON JUNE 9, 2024, WILL BE THE LAST ELECTIONS FOR THE LAW AND JUSTICE PARTY IN ITS CURRENT FORM - ŚMIŁOWICZ'S CONCLUSION: “Of course, we should not forget about several other influential politicians in the party. However, regardless of how many factions emerge in PiS, all of them may recognize Jarosław Kaczyński as their leader for some time, but if the president's form remains as it has been recently, it could end quickly. It is possible that the European Parliament elections on June 9, 2024, will be the last elections for the Law and Justice party in its current form.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/przeczekac-w-brukseli-w-pis-trwa-wojna-o-miejsca-na-listach-do-europarlamentu-186285 -- EXPLAINING THE PEGASUS AFFAIR WILL BE A PUBLIC EMBARRASSMENT FOR PIŚ - EWA SIEDLECKA ON THE TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: “Although since the disclosure of the "Dworczyk's emails" we know that the ruling party, fearing internal coalition surveillance, used private email accounts to communicate amongst themselves. The revelation now of who spied on whom will therefore not be a major surprise for them. However, it will be a public embarrassment for both PiS as an organization and its individual, until recently very prominent members. Because if they don't trust each other, how can anyone else trust them?” -- WHAT WILL BE MOST INTERESTING IN THIS REVELATION IS LEARNING THE MECHANISMS OF SUCH SURVEILLANCE - SIEDLECKA CONTINUES: “Who ordered it, to whom, whether any procedure was followed at all (after all, one can only legally conduct surveillance in connection with an ongoing investigation). Finally: who and on what basis had access to the material from this surveillance.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2246017,1,rozpoczelo-sie-wyjasnianie-afery-pegasusa-to-bedzie-publiczna-kompromitacja-pis-z-kilku-powodow -- FARMERS WOULD LIKE THEIR ACTIVITIES TO BE COMPLETELY EXCLUDED FROM CLIMATE POLICY, EVEN THOUGH THEY ALSO LOSE OUT FROM CLIMATE CHANGE – IF NOT PRIMARILY - PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Farmers would like their activities to be completely excluded from climate policy, even though they also lose out from climate change – if not primarily. "The value of crops lost annually due to drought could be as high as PLN 6.5 billion. With better field irrigation, grain yields could be 20% higher, and root crops even 30% higher. Negative effects of climate warming are also visible. Due to temperature fluctuations, we lose an average of 7% of crops annually, and we will lose at least 14% if the average temperature rises by 2°C" – states the PIE report "Economic costs of drought for Polish agriculture".” -- KOŁODZIEJCZAK BEHAVES AS IF HE WERE ONE OF THE PROTESTERS - WÓJCIK CONTINUES IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Farmer protests are sweeping across Europe, but in Poland, they are taking on a particularly intense form. Burning tires and straw bales, blocking roads with agricultural machinery, spilling grain from trucks – these are images not seen for a long time. The situation becomes all the more peculiar as farmers are de facto supported by part of the government. Deputy Minister Kołodziejczak behaves as if he were one of the protesters. He demands greater activity from the Minister of Agriculture – his superior – and even accuses ministry employees of bribery. Kołodziejczak travels to the border with Ukraine, demonstratively inspects various transports personally, and even announces inspections of all trucks from the East. In doing so, he undermines the work of the relevant services.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/nie-mozna-utozsamiac-interesow-rolnikow-z-interesami-calego-kraju/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Krzysztof Mroziewicz, Łukasz Grass, Marcin Cieślak, Wiola Paprocka, Błażej Lenkowski, Adam Rogacki.

Łukasz Mężyk