-- KACZYŃSKI SQUANDERED WHAT BROUGHT HIM TO POWER - PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “It is safer, therefore, to see this change as another swing of the pendulum – not as dramatic as it might seem to those most heated, enraged by Jarosław Kaczyński's antics. It is enough to recall that as late as 2001, left-wing voters outnumbered right-wing voters by a ratio of 3:2. The leaders of the SLD then believed that their firm entrenchment in key institutions would ensure them a decade and a half of peaceful rule. However, something went wrong. Today, we are richer by over 20 years of experience. Let this most recent experience only reinforce our conviction that any advantage can be squandered.” -- PARADOXICALLY, MAKING UNNECESSARY ENEMIES, PRIDE, AND ARROGANCE SEEM TO BE THE KEY ARGUMENTS IN IDEOLOGICAL TRANSFORMATIONS - PROF. FLIS CONTINUES IN TYGODNIK: “This entire change can have two causes and two interpretations. It can be explained by objective social phenomena – increasing wealth and mobility contribute to a reduced need for community support and ties; secularization also plays a role. But why have processes that have been ongoing for almost two decades only resulted in such a breakthrough now? Perhaps it's a matter of the ground on which the seed fell, generously fertilized later by the overzealousness, clumsiness, and dishonesty of those in power? Making unnecessary enemies, pride, and arrogance – paradoxically, these seem to be the key arguments in ideological transformations. According to another interpretation, the past eight years are the 'swan song' of conservatism, and from now on, everything will smoothly move towards a bright future designed by progressive technocrats. However, this could be just as illusory as many previous 'no-alternative' convictions.” -- PiS PLUNGED ITSELF FOR FOUR YEARS INTO THE ABYSS OF INTERNAL DISPUTES AND MISSED INITIATIVES. ALL THIS IN AN ATMOSPHERE OF UNFETTERED AGGRESSION - WRITES PROF. FLIS IN TP: “This masked the changes that were already beginning to appear in the electorate. The right-wing, solidarity-based side somewhat diminished in 2019, although it was still larger than in the years 2007-2011. Meanwhile, the left-liberal segment of the electorate grew by half, even if only at the expense of the center. In total, the advantage shifted from 3:1 to 2:1 – still substantial, but no longer as much as before. Ignoring this warning, PiS plunged itself for four years into the abyss of internal disputes and missed initiatives. All this in an atmosphere of unfettered aggression towards opponents, especially when they pointed out the government's successive abuses of power.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/jaroslaw-kaczynski-przehulal-co-wynioslo-go-do-wladzy-co-pis-zmienil-w-naszych-glowach-186205 -- DUDA DECIDED TO DRAW A LINE UNDER JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI – IN A POLITICAL SENSE – AND THINK ANEW ABOUT THE RIGHT-WING? - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Valentine's Day, and the Presidential Palace – instead of sending the PiS leader a red heart – is sticking another pin into Kaczyński. This is undoubtedly linked to a broader plan. It appears that the President is beginning to understand that his parent political camp is condemned to losing support. Therefore, if he wants to have any political backing, he should 'detach' himself from PiS in the eyes of public opinion. Does this mean that President Andrzej Duda has decided that a line must now be drawn under Jarosław Kaczyński – in a political sense – and that we must think anew about the right-wing? https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39834751-michal-szuldrzynski-trudna-milosc-dudy-i-kaczynskiego-walentynek-w-obozie-prawicy-nie-bedzie -- SOCIETY IS NOT BUYING THE RIGHT-WING'S NARRATIVE, EVEN IF IT DOESN'T QUITE BELIEVE THE GOVERNMENT'S ASSERTIONS THAT THE TAKEOVER OF MEDIA AND THE NATIONAL PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE WAS DONE LEGE ARTIS. VOTERS, ALTHOUGH CONFUSED BY CONTRADICTORY LEGAL INTERPRETATIONS, STILL MOSTLY BELIEVE IT COULDN'T HAVE BEEN DONE OTHERWISE - MAREK KĘSKRAWIEC IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “For now, however, PiS is in a polling slump; no one there has the strength to stop the leader from making constant accusations against Donald Tusk – this, in turn, prevents serious talks with the opposition. At the same time, it is also convenient for the new government, as society is not buying the right-wing's narrative, even if it doesn't quite believe the government's assertions that the takeover of media and the National Prosecutor's Office was done lege artis. Voters, although confused by contradictory legal interpretations, still mostly believe it couldn't have been done otherwise. They understand the actions of Adam Bodnar, who did not want to accept a situation where, as the Prosecutor General, he had (thanks to PiS's legislative machinations) less authority than his subordinate Dariusz Barski. That was unhealthy.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/reka-kosiniaka-czy-jest-szansa-na-kompromis-w-wymiarze-sprawiedliwosci-186205 -- IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT THE PRESIDENT WOULD ACT THIS WAY: SWAPPING THE IMPOSSIBLE CANDIDATES FOR LEGAL JUDGES. HOWEVER, THE POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF SUCH A MOVE ARE VERY DANGEROUS FOR THE CURRENT COALITION - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “However, the Third Way's scenario of only dealing with the 'imposters' has many drawbacks. Some time ago, the president reportedly said at an informal meeting that if the Sejm passed a resolution on the need to revoke the oath from three legal judges, he would do it. Because he generally implements Sejm resolutions. This would also be an excuse for his previous decisions to accept the oath from the 'imposters'. As he said: 'The Sejm passed a resolution, so I had to accept the oath because I don't have the authority to refuse.' This is the only – albeit strained – line of defense if someone wanted to hold Andrzej Duda accountable. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the president would act this way: swap the 'imposters' for legal judges. However, the political consequences of such a move are very dangerous for the current coalition. And this is what the government fears: that Duda would unexpectedly cooperate with them. Why is this dangerous? Because it would, in a way, legitimize Julia Przyłębska's Constitutional Tribunal, where obedient PiS appointees from Nowogrodzka would still have a majority and torpedo the government's actions, completely disregarding the law or the constitution.” -- THE ENTIRE OPERATION WITH THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL WAS TO BE CARRIED OUT AT THE SEJM SESSION ON FEBRUARY 21-23 - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES IN GW: “The resolution will effectively state that the Tribunal is not functioning. Furthermore, the government will present a draft law to regulate the Tribunal's affairs and a draft constitutional amendment that brings about a sort of reset of this institution. (...) The resolution on the Constitutional Tribunal will not, however, mention the unlawful appointment of Krystyna Pawłowicz and Stanisław Piotrowicz to the Tribunal due to their exceeding retirement age. Some experts have argued that their selection could be considered invalid. Ultimately, however, the decision was made that this issue is not as legally clear-cut as the case of the 'imposters' or Przyłębska's presidency. The entire operation concerning the Constitutional Tribunal was to be carried out at the Sejm session on February 21-23.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30699036,rzad-sie-obawia-sie-ze-w-sprawie-trybunalu-konstytucyjnego.html -- SCHETYNA: THE IDEA OF A CONSTITUTIONAL RESET IS INDEED NOBLE, BUT I CONSIDER IT VERY DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/02/15/ -- DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN KO AND LEWICA HAVE WEAKENED TRUST IN COALITION RELATIONS, BUT IT IS STILL FAR FROM RUINING THEM - RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Disagreements between KO and Lewica have weakened trust in coalition relations, but it is still far from ruining them. The partners are aware that finishing the showdown with PiS remains key. A mechanism for institutional coordination of campaigns by KO, Lewica, and Trzecia Droga at the local level is also planned, so that coalition partners do not get in each other's way and avoid tensions. However, in national politics, Lewica is announcing greater assertiveness in presenting its point of view, even at the cost of the entire coalition's narrative coherence.” -- IT'S ANOTHER MATTER THAT LEWICA HAS LITTLE ROOM FOR ASSERTIVENESS TODAY - WRITES KALUKIN IN POLITYKA: “It's another matter that Lewica has little room for assertiveness today. Some of its flagship issues, like limiting church privileges, have temporarily lost importance. Others have been taken over by the stronger Civic Platform. This is the case with abortion: the liberalization projects submitted by both parties differ only in details, and the real counterweight has become the resistant Third Way. Furthermore, it was the Minister of Health from PO, Izabela Leszczyna, who began to fight the conscience clause blocking legal abortions, and also introduced the 'day after' pill without a prescription. Similarly, it is with registered partnerships, even if the left-wing minister for equality, Katarzyna Kotula, is working on a draft law. The Prime Minister himself was the first to announce this initiative, in a sense taking it under his patronage.” -- STARTING IN A FORCED SOLO FORMULA PRACTICALLY DOOMS LEWICA TO A SHODDY SELECTION OF CANDIDATES - CONTINUES KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “This does not change the fact that the local government test remains a significant challenge for Lewica. Cadre shallowness was already revealed in the parliamentary campaign, and in some places, there were even problems with filling the lists and collecting signatures. It may be even more difficult now, as the local government campaign is starting at the last minute, in a rush, and the fruitless talks with KO consumed some time. Starting in a forced solo formula practically dooms Lewica to a shoddy selection of candidates for local representative bodies. There is no question of promoting distinctive candidacies in cities – perhaps except for Biejat. The greatest concern, however, will be the percentage result in the elections to regional assemblies, allowing them to save face. However, even with relatively favorable winds, this will translate at most into a dozen or so individual mandates in the regions.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2245175,1,tusk-nagle-zlozyl-parasol-co-teraz-czeka-porzucona-lewice.read -- WHY WILL THE POLITICIANS OF THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION NOT LAUNCH A POSITIVE AND THOROUGH INFORMATION OFFENSIVE ABOUT THE CHANGES TO THE EU TREATIES, WHICH WILL ONCE AND FOR ALL PUT AN END TO THE LIES OF THEIR PREDECESSORS? – EUROPEAN AFFAIRS SPECIALIST KAROLINA BOROŃSKA-HRYNIEWIECKA IN OKO.PRESS: “The question then arises as to why those who wish well for both Poland and the EU, holding the view that a strong Poland can only be secure within a strong and integrated Union, do not point out the real benefits that the proposed changes will bring to ordinary citizens? In other words, why, instead of adopting a defensive stance, do Polish politicians not launch a positive and thorough information offensive that will put an end to their predecessors' lies once and for all?” https://oko.press/zmiany-w-traktatach-europejskich-dlaczego-tusk-nas-straszy -- IT MAY TURN OUT THAT IN SUCH A SCENARIO, THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE WOULD POTENTIALLY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE. HOWEVER, THIS WOULD REQUIRE A CEASEFIRE IN THE COUNTRY - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN INTERIA: “In this situation, our – Polish – realism should suggest that the raison d'état is to pursue a policy in 2024 that takes into account both Biden's and Trump's victories. It may turn out that in such a scenario, the Presidential Palace would potentially play an important role. However, this would require a ceasefire in the country. And at this point, of course, our Vistula realism ends: because can we expect self-restraint in conducting the competition on the Polish-Polish stage in the near future? To play on two pianos in the USA at the right moment? You already know the answer.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-czy-donald-trump-majaczyl,nId,7329263 -- BIRTHDAYS: Andrzej Wiszniewski, Anna Kornecka.