state of play: 02/14/2024
POLITICAL GAME: Matczak: Prosecuting Trump Without an Offer for His Electorate Lets Him Win Again, Janicki: PiS Sympathizers Can Still Return to Democracy and Will Be Enthusiastically Welcomed
-- POLITICAL AGENDA FOR WEDNESDAY: WITEK BEFORE THE INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEE, PRESENTATION OF THE LEFT'S CANDIDATE FOR WARSAW MAYOR, MASTALEREK ON DUDAS MEETING WITH BOSAK - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/02/14/
-- THE THIRD WAY IS GAINING, PIS IS LOSING. A TRANSFER? - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “The 4 percentage point gain for the October 15th Coalition is mainly due to the improved standings of the Third Way, which turned out to be the dark horse of the elections (14.4%), and led by the impressive rider Szymon Hołownia, it galloped another 2.2 percentage points further (to 16.6%). The Left's growth (by 1 percentage point) is within the margin of error and also within the limits of disappointment, which was the 8.6% election result. The significant political activity of the Civic Coalition government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk and frontline ministers Adam Bodnar and Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz, brought an increase in standings of only 0.9 percentage points, certainly below expectations.”
-- WEAKENING OF THE DUOPOLY? IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT WE ARE WITNESSING VOTERS SEARCHING FOR A NEW POLITICAL CONFIGURATION - PACEWICZ CONTINUES IN OKO: “As can be seen, from 2007, when PO took power from PiS, until 2019, which was the peak of Kaczynski's reign, support for these two main forces hovered around 70% combined, and they constituted the DNA of Polish politics (the intersecting lines of PiS and PO even resemble a DNA strand we remember from school). In the 2023 elections, the duopoly gathered only 66%, and according to the latest polls, it has dropped to 58%, not much more than in the 2005 elections, after which PiS had to share power with the rogue affiliates LPR and Samoobrona. It is therefore not impossible that we are witnessing voters searching for a new political configuration.”
-- A SIGNAL TO THE MEDIA THAT THE EXCITING BATTLE TO LIQUIDATE POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS AND LAWS INTRODUCED BY PIS CANNOT OVERSHADOW THE DEBATE ABOUT WHAT KIND OF COUNTRY POLAND SHOULD BECOME - ARGUES PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “A record 21.6 million people voted in the 2023 elections, almost 10 million more than in 2005 (11.8 million). These additional voters were looking for options other than KO and PiS. Polls show that this trend continues. This is a signal to the ruling party that the supporters of the ruling coalition are a conglomerate with diverse political, social, and generational composition, with varied needs and expectations. They are united by the hope of reversing the changes introduced in Poland by Law and Justice, but this bond will weaken. The share of KO supporters among the October 15th Coalition voters is only slightly over half (55%). This is also a signal to the media that the exciting battle to liquidate political institutions and laws introduced by PiS cannot overshadow the debate about what kind of country Poland should become.”
https://oko.press/kap-kap-kap-wycieka-kaczynskiemu-elektorat-odchodza-z-pis-do-trzeciej-drogi
-- THE "WYBORCZA" BAROMETER. MUCH INDICATES THAT IN THE UPCOMING LOCAL ELECTIONS, THANKS TO THE THIRD WAY AND CONFEDERATION, PIS WILL NO LONGER HAVE A MAJORITY IN THE PODLASKIE REGIONAL ASSEMBLY.
https://bialystok.wyborcza.pl/bialystok/7,35241,30687667,barometr-wyborczej-pis-w-drodze-do-utraty-sejmiku-podlaskiego.html
-- WE HAVE AN EXAMPLE IN THE USA, WHERE PROSECUTING TRUMP WITHOUT AN OFFER FOR HIS ELECTORATE ALLOWS HIM TO WIN ELECTIONS AGAIN AFTER FOUR YEARS - PROF. MARCIN MATCZAK IN POLEMICS WITH MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Let's repeat: de-escalation of tensions is needed as an action to be taken towards the PiS electorate, not towards PiS. The PiS party is anti-democratic, but its electorate is certainly not entirely so. We simultaneously need decisive accountability for PiS officials and proposals for that part of the PiS electorate that can vote for democratic parties. Only this will push away the specter of the populist PiS returning to power. We have an example in the USA, where prosecuting Trump without an offer for his electorate allows him to win elections again after four years. Let's not make that mistake in Poland.”
-- DISTINGUISH BETWEEN POPULIST POLITICIANS WHO DESERVE ACCOUNTABILITY AND THE PEOPLE VOTING FOR THEM, WHO DESERVE A BETTER POLITICAL OFFER THAN THE ONE OFFERED BY KACZYŃSKI WITH HIS HATRED - PROF. MATCZAK CONTINUES TO JANICKI: “In conclusion, it is not reconciliation and de-escalation that serve Kaczyński, but articles that convince that the more conflict there is in public life, the better for democracy. Unfortunately, no – this is a completely erroneous diagnosis. It would be better to write a text titled 'The Myth of the War of All Against All' and consider who such a myth serves. It is easy to understand who, when one distinguishes between populist politicians who deserve accountability and the people voting for them, who deserve a better political offer than the one offered by Kaczyński with his hatred for everyone and everything.”
-- THE CANON OF RULES AND PROCEDURES MUST BE CLEAR, DEFENDED, AND PROTECTED - MARIUSZ JANICKI RESPONDS TO MATCZAK IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Marcin Matczak accuses me of promoting an 'atmosphere of war,' of being mistaken in believing that 'polarization and conflict are tools for spreading democracy and the rule of law,' and of expressing a 'disturbing conviction about the irreparability of the other side'; I will not even mention the impolite remarks about my 'colonial' inclinations. No, I do not believe that a state of tension and permanent conflict is desirable or a final goal. I hope that Poland will eventually return to democratic stability and normal competition between political groups – within the framework of universally accepted systemic principles. However, for this to happen, the canon of these rules and procedures must be clear, defended, and protected.”
-- LIBERAL DEMOCRACY, WITH THE SEPARATION OF POWERS, CHECKS AND BALANCES, AND CIVIL LIBERTIES, IS NON-NEGOTIABLE - JANICKI CONTINUES TO MATCZAK: “Everyone has the opportunity to 'fix themselves,' no one has to support Kaczyński, Orbán, Erdoğan, or Trump their entire lives. But I firmly maintain the thesis that there is no 'no man's land here,' no systemic average derived from liberal democracy and the autocratic vision of PiS-like groups. And this is how I interpret Matczak's suggestions – that in the name of so-called de-escalation, reducing social polarization, we should somehow systemically let go, retreat, 'compromise.' At the end of such a compromise, there must be at least partial acceptance of the systemic solutions of Kaczyński, Ziobro, and Duda. This would mean that liberal democracy, with the separation of powers, control institutions, and civil liberties, is to some extent negotiable, and the point is that it is not.”
-- IN POLAND, PiS SYMPATHIZERS CAN STILL RETURN TO THE WORLD OF LIBERAL DEMOCRACY AND WILL BE ENTHUSIASTICALLY WELCOMED THERE. THEY SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED, NOT DETERRED - WRITES MARIUSZ JANICKI FURTHER IN HIS POLEMICS WITH MARCIN MATCZAK: “In Poland, PiS sympathizers can still return to the world of liberal democracy and will be enthusiastically welcomed there. They should be encouraged, not deterred, but also not treated as voters requiring special care. And there is no 'moral and cultural superiority' in this, which, along with many other negative traits, Matczak attributes to me; it is a proposal to participate in the Western civilizational model.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2245183,1,matczak-kontra-janicki-spor-o-pojednanie-symetryzm-i-elektorat-pis.read
-- THE PRESIDENT WANTED TO SHOW THAT HE IS CAPABLE OF PUTTING DONALD TUSK AND HIS MINISTERS IN THEIR PLACE. HE COMPLETELY FAILED - WITOLD GŁOWACKI IN OKO.PRESS: “Rhetorically, Duda aimed to assume the role of a teacher disciplining a rowdy class for an unannounced pop quiz. However, Tusk did not allow himself to be reduced to this role. He stated that the expenditures preceding the construction of CPK raise many doubts. He listed that PLN 2.7 billion was spent, of which PLN 286 million went to salaries, and PLN 500 million to the railway component, within which 'not a single kilometer of track was built.' And then he launched a frontal attack. He promised to hand over documents to the president concerning the illegal surveillance of politicians using Pegasus software during the PiS government.”
-- TO PUT IT MILDLY – IT WAS NOT A DAY OF TRIUMPH. AND FOR THE FUTURE, THE PRESIDENT WILL PROBABLY THINK SEVERAL TIMES BEFORE ANNOUNCING A DECISION TO CONVENE A CABINET COUNCIL - GŁOWACKI CONTINUES IN OKO: “To put it mildly – it was not a day of triumph. And for the future, the president will probably think several times before announcing a decision to convene a Cabinet Council. Because while it is very easy to convene one, it may be much harder to answer the question of why one should do it in the first place.”
https://oko.press/duda-raczej-niepredko-zwola-kolejna-rade-gabinetowa
-- IT WAS TUSK WHO PUT DUDA IN THE POSITION OF A STUDENT WHO DID NOT FULLY KNOW WHAT WAS HAPPENING IN THE COUNTRY RULED BY HIS POLITICAL ALLIES - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Donald Tusk decided to upset the pawns on Andrzej Duda's chessboard. And he reversed the roles – he placed Andrzej Duda in the position of a student who did not fully know what was happening in the country ruled by his political allies, so the prime minister took pity on him and decided to tell him what was really going on. Tusk used the phrase several times that President Duda probably didn't know about something, which were painful barbs directed at the head of state, referencing how Robert Górski once portrayed Andrzej Duda in 'Ucho prezesa' (The President's Ear).”
-- IT WAS ANDRZEJ DUDA, NOT DONALD TUSK, WHO HAD TO EXPLAIN HIMSELF - BARTKIEWICZ CONTINUES IN RZ: “The president's subsequent reply no longer allowed a return to the situation originally defined by the president, because it was Andrzej Duda, not Donald Tusk, who had to explain himself. And it was supposed to be the other way around. Both sides are probably ready for peace. But it is to be a peace after the unconditional surrender of the other side. And this means that the political war in Poland will continue.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39827791-artur-bartkiewicz-rada-gabinetowa-czyli-pokoju-miedzy-donaldem-tuskiem-a-andrzejem-duda-nie-bedzie
-- EUROPE WILL NOT DEFEND ITSELF AGAINST RUSSIA WITHOUT THE USA - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ: “While it is obvious that an American from New York will die for one from Los Angeles, the dilemma of whether a Spaniard will do so for a Pole is much more difficult. After all, it is for this reason that Poland spent 3.9% of its GDP on defense last year, while Spain only 1.26%. And until a sense of solidarity among all Europeans emerges, it will be very difficult for our continent to defend itself on its own.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39831201-jedrzej-bielecki-europa-nie-obroni-sie-przed-rosja-bez-usa
-- FORMER HEAD OF SLD RETURNS TO STATE BUSINESS - BUSINESS INSIDER: “A grand return of the former head of the Democratic Left Alliance is in the making. This time not to politics, but to state business. Wojciech Olejniczak has received the green light to assume key managerial positions in State Treasury companies. Wojciech Olejniczak's name was on the list of individuals who received a positive opinion from the Council for State Treasury Companies and State Legal Entities on February 13th. He is thus among those who can be appointed to supervisory boards or management boards of key state enterprises.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/wiadomosci/szykuje-sie-powrot-bylego-szefa-sld-ma-zielone-swiatlo-by-rzadzic-spolka/98h0lpg
-- "IT WAS A POLITICAL EXECUTION" - WE HEAR FROM MEETING PARTICIPANTS - ANDRZEJ GAJCY ON ONET: “- We were all shocked, listening to President Kaczyński and his attack on Ryszard Legutko, who was forced to resign as head of the PiS delegation in the European Parliament. It was a political execution - politicians participating in the meeting at Nowogrodzka admit in an interview with Onet.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/kaczynski-dokonal-egzekucji-wierny-general-odchodzi-upokorzony/8h3ypq9,79cfc278
-- ARDANOWSKI ATTACKS PIS - INTERIA QUOTES HIS STATEMENTS: “- If we do not face the truth and present new ideas, we will slide towards an insignificant, ten-percent party, a bit geriatric and couch-potato-like,' he assessed. 'I will not lecture the leadership – they think they know everything best,' he quipped ironically. Ardanowski confessed that in Law and Justice – especially during its second term in government – idealistic people were overshadowed by 'fat cats,' 'crooks,' and 'schemers,' who cynically mocked the party members who had ambitions for real change.”
-- ARDANOWSKI DEFENDS LEPPER AGAINST THE THEN CBA: “- I can say with full responsibility that there were never any actions in the Ministry of Agriculture that would indicate that Lepper was willing to accept bribes for de-zoning. De-zoning was handled by Henryk Kowalczyk for a long time, and Lepper directly said: 'I do not want to be involved in the de-zoning of land' – Ardanowski stated.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-posel-pis-nie-zostawil-suchej-nitki-na-swojej-partii-to-jest,nId,7329376
-- THE PURGE AT ORLEN GROUP DID NOT INCLUDE A HIGHLY TRUSTED MAN OF PIS CHAIRMAN JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI AND MARIUSZ KAMIŃSKI: ZBIGNIEW LASEK, DIRECTOR OF THE SECURITY DIVISION - JACEK GĄDEK ON GAZETA.PL: “The new management consists of nominees of Donald Tusk's government. However, the security of the Orlen Group – as the director of the security division – is still overseen by a man highly trusted by PiS, Jarosław Kaczyński, as well as Mariusz Kamiński. According to our information, Zbigniew Lasek has neither been fired nor has he resigned. Within PiS, there are many voices saying that Lasek should leave the company in protest against the new authorities, and at the same time in solidarity with the already dismissed CEO Daniel Obajtek.”
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30696440,zaufany-czlowiek-jaroslawa-kaczynskiego-uniknal-czystki-a-jest.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Luiza Zalewska-Karłowska, Grzegorz Schreiber, Anna Budzanowska, Jacek Cholewiński, Aleksander Bentkowski, Bożenna Bukiewicz.
live
47 min
38 min
„In My Opinion, Yes.” — Glapiński on Whether March is a Good Time for an Interest Rate Cut
44 min
Glapiński: All Forecasts Indicate Inflation's Return to Target in Poland is Sustainable
2 hours
„Led to Positive Changes in Historical Polish-Ukrainian Relations.” — Tusk Praises Zelensky's Commitment
2 hours
„More Than a Prelude to Practical Cooperation.” — Tusk on the Signed Letter of Intent in Kyiv
2 hours
„There is no just, safe Europe without an independent Ukraine.” — Tusk in Kyiv
2 hours
„You Will Not Be Alone.” — Tusk in Kyiv with a Message to Ukrainians
2 hours
„We are available.” — Tusk declares aid for Ukraine following Russian attacks on energy infrastructure
4 hours
Żurek: We will ask the USA for the classified part of the Epstein files
4 hours
„We Already Have the Personnel,” — Żurek on the Team Investigating Polish Links to the Epstein Affair
state of play
STATE OF PLAY: Wielowieyska: Not just Braun, but the moderate PSL is also nibbling at PiS; Kolanko: PiS is tempting Kosiniak using the USA
state of play
today
STATE OF PLAY: Tusk Needs a New Program, an Exit from the Grey, and a Renewed Contract with Voters; Doda's Ordeal in the TVP Studio
state of play
yesterday
STATE OF PLAY: Braun's Crown - Destination: China and Russia; Skrzydłowska-Kalukin: The Far-Right is Not a Margin; Stanley: Take Euroskepticism's Concerns Seriously
state of play
02/03/2026
Gruszczyński: Morawiecki and Sikorski's Positions Similar Within Their Parties, Żukowska's Strong Entrance to the Political Season, Szczęśniak: Will Pełczyńska Programmatically Threaten the Left? WM: InPost Triumphs in Dispute with Allegro
state of play
02/02/2026
Polish Political Landscape: Hołownia's Allies, Kaczynski's Health, Electoral Shifts, and Societal Divisions
state of play
01/31/2026
POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: RZ: 18 Maternity Wards Closed in Four Weeks of the New Year, Skrzydlewska: Konfederacja No Longer Terrifying, Braun Makes it Part of the Mainstream
state of play
01/30/2026