state of play: 02/13/2024

POLITICAL GAME STATE: Interia: Shift in Leadership is Now a Trend, Sroczyński: Opposition is a Gigantic Asset for the Government, Szułdrzyński: PiS Out of the Duopoly After 20 Years? GW: Jaros Wins Against Sutryk

Łukasz Mężyk

-- POLAND WILL CERTAINLY NO LONGER BE THE POOR RELATION - BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI IN GW: “From the words of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Chancellor Olaf Scholz, it follows that Poland, Germany, and France are to be the engine of European defense. Poland will certainly no longer be the poor relation. (...) The international significance of the victory over PiS cannot be overestimated. It strengthens Poland's mandate in the EU, helps reformulate Poland's image”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,30693140,po-europejskim-tournee-tuska-i-sikorskiego-czy-ue-oprze-sie.html -- POLAND IN THE EUROPEAN ELITE LEAGUE - ANNA SŁOJEWSKA IN RZ: “Donald Tusk's visits to Berlin and Paris on the same day are a symbolic renewal of the Weimar Triangle, which has been paralyzed for the past few years by PiS's anti-German course. Poland is now where it belongs – on equal footing with France and Germany – an ambassador from an EU country told me recently in an unofficial conversation”. https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39821961-anna-slojewska-trojkat-weimarski-to-jeden-z-wielu-fortepianow-na-ktorych-polska-powinna-grac-w-ue -- MASTALEREK ON BOCHEŃSKI: HE WON'T COMPETE WITH TRZASKOWSKI, BUT RATHER WITH CANDIDATES FROM THE LEFT AND POLSKA 2050. THIS IS KACZYŃSKI'S POKER MOVE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/02/13/ -- IN THE FIRST ROUND, MICHAŁ JAROS WINS AGAINST JACK SUTRYK - GW DESCRIBES A NEW POLL: “To the question: 'For which of the candidates would you cast your vote in the election for the Mayor of Wrocław?' Jaros received the most support – 23.9 percent of the votes and slightly overtook Sutryk, who gained 22.7 percent of the votes. Such an outcome means that both would advance to the second round of the elections”. https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,30692836,jacek-sutryk-czy-michal-jaros-prezydentem-wroclawia-przedwyborczy.html -- CHANGE AT THE LEADER POSITION. THE LATEST POLL CONFIRMS THE TREND - ALEKSANDRA WIECZOREK IN INTERIA: “The Civic Coalition, achieving a result of 31.7 percent, overtakes Law and Justice and takes the lead – this is how the latest parliamentary poll, conducted by United Surveys, presents itself. According to the survey, Third Way, which is third in the poll, is experiencing a decline”. https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-zmiana-na-pozycji-lidera-najnowszy-sondaz-potwierdza-trend,nId,7328885 -- PRESIDENTIAL POLL 2025 – HOŁOWNIA AND TRZASKOWSKI IN THE SECOND ROUND. THIS WOULD BE A REVOLUTION ON THE POLISH POLITICAL SCENE - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “And this would be a dire situation for Jarosław Kaczyński. It would mean that after 20 years, his party is out of the duopoly that has divided Poland since 2005. Would PiS then support Hołownia in the second round? Or would they call on their electorate not to vote? Clearly, he would have no good move in such a situation. Kaczyński would have to prepare for political retirement, knowing that his party is ceasing to be a point of reference for Polish politics. But the depicted situation would also be unfavorable for Donald Tusk. We do not know who would win the duel – Trzaskowski or Hołownia. Regardless of the outcome of the second round, the campaign itself would deepen the divisions within the coalition. One cannot prepare for a second round by praising the opponent”. https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39821451-michal-szuldrzynski-sondaz-prezydencki-2025-holownia-i-trzaskowski-w-drugiej-turze-to-bylaby-rewolucja-na-polskiej-scenie-politycznej -- DO I ALONE SEE THE ABSURDITY OF THIS SITUATION? EVER SINCE THE GOVERNMENT'S ELECTION ON DECEMBER 13TH, THERE HAS BEEN A NATIONAL PLEA TO THE AUTHORITIES NOT TO HAMPER POLAND'S DEVELOPMENT - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Like dogs, we all stand on our hind legs by the Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland Donald Tusk's legs and collectively plead that he: not hinder the country's development by destroying the CPK project, not block the expansion of seaports, not halt essential investments in nuclear power plants, not demolish the army's expansion, which is crucial in the face of growing threat of attack, not give up the issue of war reparations from Germany – not sell off the remnants of national assets. We are noting some successes here, like a large wave of support for CPK, and defeats, like today's Berlin tribute that removes all pressure from Germany. We are mobilizing around these issues, arguing about what kind of argumentation will reach the ruler's mind and what will reach his heart, although the existence of the latter is uncertain”. https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/681612-jak-pieski-stoimy-na-dwoch-lapkach-przy-nogach-premiera --- THE GOVERNMENT'S GIGANTIC ASSET FOR NOW IS THE OPPOSITION, PIS IS DOING EVERYTHING TO MAKE IT EASIER FOR THE PO-TD-LEWICA COALITION TO MASK SHORTCOMINGS, THE COMMOTION WITH KAMIŃSKI AND WĄSIK, SHOUTS ABOUT TORTURE AND MURDER DIVERT PUBLIC ATTENTION - GRZEGORZ SROCZYŃSKI IN GAZETA.PL: “The government's gigantic asset for now is the opposition; PiS is doing everything to make it easier for the PO-TD-Lewica coalition to mask shortcomings. The commotions involving Kamiński and Wąsik, shouts about torture and murder, divert public attention from the CPK issue or the staffing of State Treasury companies. 'A brilliant plan,' writes Patryk Słowik ironically from Wirtualna Polska. 'Exactly this kind of opposition is Donald Tusk's and the ruling coalition's dream' – this is Michał Szułdrzyński in 'Rzeczpospolita.' Why is PiS perpetuating this obvious mistake? Because such a tactic benefits one person – Jarosław Kaczyński. Without patriotic fervor, shouts about torture and 'murders in the trash heap,' thunderings about Tusk-Hitler, without all this moral blackmail of its own ranks that we must be together now and 'bear witness,' Kaczyński would have a big problem. Someone at some PiS convention might stand up and finally start 'holding grandpa accountable' – as some more sensible PiS members say – for the election defeat. The uproar over Wąsik and Kamiński fell into Kaczyński's lap like a gift; he is using it for one purpose – to divert attention from PiS's election defeat, from discussions about the causes of this defeat, and also to nip in the bud any attempts at reform of the party's totalitarian leadership. And if, incidentally, such a strategy also serves the hated Tusk well, then too bad, I've known this enemy for 20 years, so it's better to support him out of necessity than to risk some tectonic shift and the whole duopoly falling apart.” -- WHOEVER BECOMES PRESIDENT IN 2025 WILL TAKE OFFICE COMPLETELY RUINED BY THE YEAR AND A HALF OF WILD UPHEAVALS BETWEEN THE TUSK GOVERNMENT AND Duda THAT AWAIT US. WHAT DUDA HAS TASTED SO FAR WAS JUST THE WARM-UP - SROCZYŃSKI FURTHER IN GAZETA.PL: “Whoever becomes president in 2025 will take office completely ruined by the year and a half of wild upheavals between the Tusk government and Duda that await us. What Duda has tasted so far was just the warm-up. It will be a year and a half of further attempts to curtail the presidency and retaliatory actions by Duda, increasingly desperate. Therefore, after Duda, there will be ruins; the office will be weakened, perhaps even deprived of the right of veto – not in a legal sense, because the veto will of course remain in the constitution, but I suspect that in the next 1.5 years, Professor Chmaj and his colleagues will find seven justifications that in certain cases the veto is 'non-existent.' Hołownia or anyone else will therefore take office in a state of bankruptcy, truly becoming just a 'guardian of the chandelier,' as Donald Tusk once aptly put it”. https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30688067,w-pis-chca-rozliczac-dziadziusia-ale-dziadzius-ma-na-to.html -- WE ARE NOT ALONE, BUT IF HALF OF POLISH CITIZENS SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS ON MIGRATION FROM AFRICAN COUNTRIES, WE UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE A PROBLEM - DR HANNA MACHIŃSKA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “We are not alone, but if half of Polish citizens support restrictions on migration from African countries, we undoubtedly have a problem. We see increasing reluctance among the societies of the Netherlands, Germany, and Sweden. In Poland, however, we must recognize demographic problems and acknowledge the need to increase the inflow of migrants. This requires proper migration policy and a change in social attitudes”. -- ONCE AN AMERICAN EXPERT SAID: PREPARE YOURSELVES FOR THE MOMENT WHEN THE FACE OF A POLISH WOMAN WILL NOT BE A WHITE FACE - DR MACHIŃSKA FURTHER IN AN INTERVIEW WITH PRZYBORSKA: “It is high time for the government to start influencing attitudes, to show that these people are coming and can bring a lot of good to Poland. Once an American expert said: prepare yourselves for the moment when the face of a Polish woman will not be a white face. Mentally, as a society, we are not prepared for this”. -- NO WALL, NO WIRE, NO BARRICADES WILL STOP MIGRATION. IT IS A NATURAL PHENOMENON WORLDWIDE - MACHIŃSKA FURTHER IN KP: “I am deeply convinced that the Ministry of Education will take such actions. Because no wall, no wire, no barricades will stop migration. It is a natural phenomenon worldwide. Did we not flee Poland, did we not trudge through swamps and meet with help from Western countries? We were offered jobs, schools, housing. Today, if it weren't for civil society, if it weren't for activists at the border, these people would have been thrown into the wilderness without any help. Activists not only save lives but also ensure that migrants and refugees can find their place in Poland. And this is difficult when Poland is associated with wires and tasers for them”. https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/machinska-o-polityce-migracyjnej-rzadu-wielkie-byly-nasze-oczekiwania/ -- 10TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE DEATH OF ZBIGNIEW ROMASZEWSKI. A website dedicated to the memory of the legendary anti-communist opposition activist: www.romaszewski.polskieradio24.pl -- 32 YEARS AGO, PROF. LECH KACZYŃSKI BECAME PRESIDENT OF THE SUPREME AUDIT OFFICE (NIK). -- 5TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE DEATH OF ANTONI KRAUZE. -- BIRTHDAYS: Agnieszka Kublik, Bogusława Matuszewska, Piotr Woźniak, Wojciech Piecha.

Łukasz Mężyk