-- RUSSIANS HAVE UP TO A FIVE-FOLD ADVANTAGE IN FIREPOWER - WOJCIECH KONOŃCZUK IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “At the Kremlin, there is a growing conviction that deepening Western problems with further support for Ukraine will eventually lead to Russian victory. Because although the West has a multiple advantage in economic and military potential over Russia, it must have the political will to use it. Russia has less potential but the determination to use it.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/wojna-na-wirazu-rosjanie-maja-nawet-pieciokrotna-przewage-w-sile-ogniowej-186103 -- SOLORZ ENTERING POLITICS? - PIOTR MIĄCZYŃSKI AND LESZEK KOSTRZEWSKI IN GW: “The theory has also emerged that this is the beginning of Zygmunt Solorz entering the game, no longer just in media, but strictly in politics. And Dorota Gawryluk is his person in this race. Wyborcza.biz asked if this influenced Polsat's actions regarding TV Republika. - Nonsense - Tomasz Matwiejczuk from Grupa Polsat Plus replied to us.” https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,177151,30667501,solorz-wchodzi-w-polityke-media-obiega-informacja-ze-o-prezydenture.html -- WHO WILL BECOME THE NEW SZYMON HOŁOWNIA? THE RACE BEGINS - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Gawryluk, although she certainly knows more about Polish politics than Krzysztof Stanowski, would likely have lower chances than him at the start – because Stanowski moves like a fish in water in new media and is capable of conducting a campaign that is unlikely to lead him to the Presidential Palace, but could form the basis for creating some kind of rebellion movement. If only Stanowski has such a fantasy. Dorota Gawryluk herself denies thinking about running. But if she had some organizational backing, like Szymon Hołownia, she too would be able to stir up politics. Because, like Hołownia, she can appear on camera, although she is probably a smaller show(wo)man than the current Sejm Marshal.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39786091-artur-bartkiewicz-kto-zostanie-nowym-szymonem-holownia-wyscig-sie-rozpoczyna -- ZGORZELSKI: THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL IS INFECTED WITH ILLEGALITY. IT MUST BE DONE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/02/06 -- THE PRESIDENT OF POZNAŃ, JACEK JAŚKOWIAK, CANNOT SLEEP PEACEFULLY. REASON: THIRD WAY - TOMASZ NYCZKA IN GW: “Few people believe that Jacek will win in the first round – I hear from the Poznań city hall. Third Way politicians realize that their group is on the rise. There could be two rounds of elections in Poznań. – Few people believe that Jacek will win in the first round – I hear from President Jacek Jaśkowiak's circle. Third Way realizes it is on an upward trend. Agnieszka Lewandowska, a councilor from Polska 2050, admits: – We have already chosen a candidate. However, the party has not yet revealed the name, and will do so in the coming days.” -- IT IS ENTIRELY REALISTIC THAT THE TD CANDIDATE WILL SURPASS OURS, AND THAT WILL BE A DEFEAT – A PIS POLITICIAN TELLS NYCZKA IN GW: “The potential Third Way candidate is not just a scarecrow for Civic Coalition and Jaśkowiak. PiS is also very afraid of him. – It is entirely realistic that the TD candidate will surpass ours, and that will be a defeat – a PiS politician tells me. That's true.” https://poznan.wyborcza.pl/poznan/7,36001,30668033,prezydent-poznania-jacek-jaskowiak-nie-moze-spac-spokojnie.html -- WILL HANNA ZDANOWSKA'S TEAM RECLAIM THE VOIVODEHOOD SEJM FROM PIS? A SURPRISING PLAN FOR THE ELECTIONS IN ŁÓDŹ - TOMASZ MATUSIAK IN GW: “According to our anonymous informant, the idea of the deputy mayors running for the voivodeship sejm is attributed to officials from Hanna Zdanowska's immediate circle. The same ones who tried to promote Adam Pustelnik as a candidate for the mayor of Łódź. (...) Unofficially, deputy mayors of Łódź – Joanna Skrzydlewska and Adam Wieczorek – as well as Maciej Riemer, Director of the Department of Ecology and Climate at the Łódź City Hall, are also being discussed as sejm candidates. The names of Joanna Skrzydlewska and Maciej Riemer are also mentioned in unofficial circles in connection with the candidate for marshal. The former candidate seems particularly strong – after all, she is a former MP and MEP – although she has been politically inactive in recent months.” https://lodz.wyborcza.pl/lodz/7,35136,30666972,wiceprezydenci-lodzi-odbija-sejmik-pis-owi-zaskakujacy-plan.html -- WE ARE DEALING WITH A LONG TRANSITION PERIOD DURING WHICH DONALD TUSK AND HIS TEAM WILL TRY TO ESCAPE THE SYSTEM OF TRAPS SET BY JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI FOR HIS SUCCESSORS - PROF. RAFAŁ MATYJA IN CONVERSATION WITH JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “We are dealing with a long transition period during which Donald Tusk and his team will try to escape the system of traps set by Jarosław Kaczyński for his successors. It would be an exaggeration, however, to claim that Tusk rules in Kaczyński's state, because the changes are not that deep and only cover selected areas, but the coalition of October 15th is certainly operating in special circumstances. Today, we are seeing a completely different transfer of power than, for example, in 2015, when PiS took over a state that was much easier to seize. (...) The system of traps is constructed in such a way that it prevents the normal functioning of these institutions from being restored by ordinary means. Hence the need for drastic changes.” -- WE ARE DEALING WITH AN EXCEPTIONAL SITUATION WHERE EXCEPTIONAL MEASURES ARE NEEDED. THEY WILL NATURALLY BE BETTER AT TIMES, WORSE AT OTHERS - MATYJA TELLS MAJMUREK: “This is really not the same transfer of power as when AWS took over the state after SLD or SLD after AWS. Even when Platforma took over after PiS in 2007. We are dealing with an exceptional situation where exceptional measures are needed. They will naturally be better at times, worse at others.” -- I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ESSENTIAL MATTERS WILL BE ORDERED AT THE LEGISLATIVE LEVEL BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. PERHAPS SOME PARTIAL COMPROMISES ARE POSSIBLE - MATYJA CONTINUES AT MAJMUREK'S IN NEWSWEEK: “Everything depends on the attitude of the main players, but I do not believe that essential matters will be ordered at the legislative level before the presidential elections. Perhaps some partial compromises between the government majority and the president are possible, for example, regarding a change in the method of electing KRS members, without questioning the status of judges already appointed, but I see no room for legislative compromise around the Constitutional Tribunal.” -- SPRING 2016, WHEN COMMISSIONER FRANS TIMMERMANS CAME TO POLAND. AT THAT TIME, SOME COMPROMISE AROUND THE TRIBUNAL COULD HAVE BEEN REACHED, TODAY IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT - MATYJA CONTINUES IN NEWSWEEK: “We have a year and a half of very strong tension ahead of us. This will be a time filled with difficult moments, when disputes will arise over which court is actually a court, which law is constitutional and which is not. Such is the nature of the changes that began after 2015. I recently wondered when the break actually occurred, and based on the analysis of positions published in the press, I concluded that it was spring 2016, when Commissioner Frans Timmermans came to Poland. At that time, some compromise around the Tribunal could have been reached, today it will be very difficult.” -- THE QUESTION IS WHETHER IN POLAND TUSK WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD SUCH A STABLE MAJORITY AND CREATE STRONG EXTRA-CONSTITUTIONAL BLOCKADES GUARANTEEING THAT PIS WILL NOT RETURN TO POWER - MATYJA TELLS MAJMUREK: “Such a model can have quite strong democratic legitimacy – it existed for a long time in Italy. The condition is that long-lasting governments of such broad coalitions do not reinforce the ruling parties' dominance with additional, systemic means. In Scandinavian countries, after the war, we also had decades of social democrat rule, who did not need any systemic blockades for their competitors to ensure their complete dominance, e.g. in Sweden. The question is whether in Poland Tusk will be able to build such a stable majority and create strong extra-constitutional blockades guaranteeing that PiS will not return to power. Because embedding hard systemic safeguards into the system would be a serious limitation of democracy.” -- THE RESULT OF THE RADICAL RIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TUSK'S POSITION IN EUROPE AND GIVE THE GREEN LIGHT FROM BRUSSELS AND OTHER EUROPEAN CAPITALS TO CLEAN UP AFTER PIS - MATYJA FURTHER AT MAJMUREK'S: “I would bet that the result of the radical right will strengthen Tusk's position in Europe and give the green light from Brussels and other European capitals to clean up after PiS. Because how will the European mainstream interpret the good results of the far-right? As: the situation is serious, and in Poland we have a man who showed how to stop populists – he certainly deserves to at least not be hindered.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/tusk-w-labiryncie-pis-opozycja-nie-jest-pewna-ze-bedzie-miala-swojego-prezydenta/74gvse1 -- THIS IS THE DUDA TUSK WANTS - MAREK KĘSKRAWIEC IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “The president blocking the poorer part of the nation's access to money, plus further episodes of the saga of United Right politicians enriching themselves at the state's expense – this is precisely what Donald Tusk wants, for whom perhaps the commotion with Kamiński and Wąsik will not be detrimental either. Because PiS is still considering the option of forcefully bringing these politicians to the Sejm sessions.” -- HE CASTS HIM IN ROLES TO WHICH AN INTELLIGENT, TIMID PERSON FROM CRACOW WOULD SIMPLY NOT BE SUITED. STRESS STRONGLY BLOCKS HIM - KĘSKRAWIEC CONTINUES IN TP: “The president does not have the qualities of a warrior; he is rather a person of moderate views and a gentle character, so when he poses as a resolute head of state, he appears artificial. I am also not sure if the dynamic Marcin Mastalerek, who has revitalized the Palace after a period of stagnation and departures of important officials, will not ultimately become a problem for Duda. He casts him in roles to which an intelligent, timid person from Krakow would simply not be suited. Stress strongly blocks him, which is evidenced by surprising difficulties with English during public appearances, despite the president's increasingly fluent use of the language.” -- BOTH PROSECUTORS AND JUDGES HAVE, BY A DECISIVE MAJORITY, ACCEPTED THE CHANGES, TUSK WILL NOT LOSE THIS BATTLE – CLAIMS MAREK KĘSKRAWIEC IN TP: “One of the fronts is the prosecution service, where there is dual authority, and after the dismissal of 144 prosecutors associated with the old team from their delegations, it also faces chaos in investigations, which the RPO points out. In reality, however, all this is temporary. Both prosecutors and judges have, by a decisive majority, accepted the changes. They are reportedly visible even at the level of secretariats and administration. Tusk will not lose this battle.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/takiego-dudy-chce-tusk-186101 -- BIRTHDAYS: Paweł Orłowski, Agnieszka Grzybek.