-- AN EVENTUAL RUSSIAN AGGRESSION IS UNLIKELY TO PROVOKE ANYONE OR CHANGE ANYTHING TODAY - ANNE APPLEBAUM IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “An eventual Russian aggression is unlikely to provoke anyone or change anything today. Nobody is talking about it. Life goes on as normal. Presidential elections are underway in Finland and Romania. Farmers are on strike in Germany. Lithuania is organizing an international Festival of Light. All this will change the moment Ukrainians start losing. For the past few months, Western observers have been fumbling around the word 'stalemate' as if the Russian invasion of Ukraine had sunk into some boring, permanent stagnation. (...) But on the ground, in the southern and eastern parts of their country, they are rationing ammunition. They never had enough rockets and shells, and now there is a risk that they won't have enough to continue fighting at all.” -- THIS IS THEIR CHANCE FOR AMERICA TO BE SERIOUS AGAIN. DO THEY HAVE THE COURAGE TO SEIZE IT? - APPLEBAUM FURTHER IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Elected lawmakers don't get many opportunities to make their mark on the world. But currently, the actions of just a few Republican members of Congress can help stop a series of bad decisions from turning into even worse ones. This is their chance for America to be serious again. Do they have the courage to seize it?” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30642737,anne-applebaum-na-zachodzie-ewentualna-rosyjska-agresja-raczej.html -- PIS IS NARROWING ITS FIELD OF ACTION RATHER THAN BROADENING ITS POTENTIAL VOTER BASE - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The main doubt is that if PiS exclusively scares people with German dominance and Tusk's dictatorship, it is narrowing its field of action rather than broadening its potential voter base. Meanwhile, an increase in support could potentially be achieved in two ways. First, by understanding that Polish society is liberalizing in terms of worldview – and therefore moderating its conservatism on cultural issues. Second, by boasting about selected economic achievements and pointing out the new government's shortcomings.” -- KACZYŃSKI IS TRYING TO HARDEN THE PARAMETERS OF THE CONFLICT, THUS INVESTING POLITICALLY RATHER IN THE LONG TERM - SAWCZUK FURTHER: “PiS may be experiencing a decline now, but worrying about it is again more of an expression of a more contemporary, short-term vision of politics, in which politicians surf the waves of public opinion. Meanwhile, Kaczyński is trying to hard-define the parameters of the conflict, thus investing politically rather in the long term. He assumes that if PiS bends now, gives in – it will be weaker later than if it stands its ground now, even if such a position currently appears overly radical.” -- IT TURNED OUT THAT HOLDING PIS ACCOUNTABLE IS POPULAR. THEREFORE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PIS WOULD NOT HAVE COUNTED ON HIGHER SUPPORT AT THIS MOMENT ANYWAY - SAWCZUK FURTHER IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Finally, there is an element over which PiS currently has no control, regardless of whether the party chose a more or less radical course. The new government is simply on the offensive for the moment. It has turned out that holding PiS accountable is popular. Therefore, it is possible that PiS would not have counted on higher support at this moment anyway. All this collectively reduces the chances of an open rebellion against Kaczyński.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2244069,1,kaczynski-vs-pis-czy-prezes-ciagnie-partie-na-dno-i-czy-zobaczymy-jakis-otwarty-bunt.read?src=mt -- PRESIDENT DUDA IS RIGHT. WHAT HE LACKS? DIVISIONS - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “This does not change the fact that in legal disputes – regarding the pardon of Kamiński and Wąsik or the dismissal of the national prosecutor requiring the president's consent – the head of state is right. He is right, but he doesn't have divisions. A situation known from history. Mocking this is not very elegant, but let's not expect elegance from those who engage in politics in Poland.” -- IT PROBABLY REVEALS POWERLESSNESS - ZAREMBA FURTHER IN INTERIA: “Does the fact that the president is not using the ultimate weapon, i.e., real vetoes, but only scarecrows, which are likely ineffective, compromise him? It probably reveals his powerlessness. So, what methods should he use to defend his own competencies, which are ostentatiously not respected, and at the same time to stigmatize illegal actions?” -- THEY WOULD MOST LIKELY HAVE NOTHING ELSE TO DO BUT TO HOLD NEW ELECTIONS - ZAREMBA FURTHER IN INTERIA: “The president theoretically has one effective weapon in reserve against the new coalition. He could veto every law as illegally passed. So far, the Tusk government and Marshal Hołownia have not openly questioned the legitimacy of the presidential veto. Would they do so? They would most likely have nothing else to do but to hold new elections. This can be achieved by a parliamentary resolution requiring a three-fifths majority. Since PiS declares it would support such a motion, it is possible.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-prezydent-duda-ma-racje-czego-nie-ma-dywizji,nId,7308091 -- IT IS EASIER FOR HIM TO STAND ONCE AGAIN UNDER THE BANNER OF "WOMEN'S RIGHTS" THAN TO EXPLAIN THE CUTTING OF THE CENTRAL COMMUNICATION PORT PROJECT - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “When sketching scenarios for the coming years, he places ideological debates with PiS outside the grand spectacle of legal and political warfare. It is easier for him to stand once again under the banner of 'women's rights' than to explain the trimming of the Central Communication Port project, not to mention his own promises to double the tax-free allowance. The debate on abortion is a recipe for months of noise that will drown out questions about consent to the European Union taking over issues related to migration and the dictate of the migration pact. From his point of view, it is worth taking advantage of this opportunity. Regardless of what consequences this noise ultimately leads to.” -- CONSTANT PRESSURE NOT ON TUSK, BUT ON HESITANT OR EVEN INDEPENDENT MPS FROM PSL OR POLSKA 2050 REGARDING THIS ISSUE - ZAREMBA FURTHER IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “One last remark. Such a long and noisy debate means constant pressure not on Tusk, but on hesitant or even independent MPs from PSL or Polska 2050 regarding this issue. They will be bombarded with questions from journalists rallying around the liberal agenda or from influential circles described earlier. Their recent 'liberal' stance on in vitro (even part of PiS adopted it) or regarding the 'day-after' pill is no longer enough.” https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39774591-poreczny-sztandar-donalda-tuska -- COMPLETELY OUTMANEUVERED BY DONALD TUSK. WHO WILL CLEAN UP THE MESS LEFT BY THESE TWO GENTLEMEN? THE GIRLS. TYPICAL - AGNIESZKA WIŚNIEWSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Robert Biedroń and Włodzimierz Czarzasty were authorized to negotiate with Civic Coalition and were completely outmaneuvered by Donald Tusk. Who will clean up the mess left by these two gentlemen? The girls. Typical. (...) Local elections will be held on April 7th. The clock is ticking. Next week, we are supposed to find out in what configuration Nowa Lewica and Lewica Razem will go to the elections. Whatever these parties decide, Nowa Lewica should consider whether their two co-leaders are the right people in the right place. After the parliamentary election defeat, no one in Nowa Lewica took responsibility. Will it be the same this time?” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/przed-wyborami-samorzadowymi-lewica-jest-w-centrum-chaosu/ -- TUSK CAN ONLY BE PLEASED BY THE FACT THAT FORCES AGAINST HIM ARE INCREASING AGAIN. PERSONALLY, IT'S PROBABLY NOTHING PLEASANT, BUT AT THE SAME TIME IT'S A SIGNAL THAT THE RIGHT WILL REMAIN STERILE FOR A LONGER TIME - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “Focusing attention on Tusk is also counterproductive. The right has lost every time it has made him its main enemy. That's why it lost in 2007, 2011, and 2023. When Tusk was not in the country in 2015, PiS had to change its narrative. It hid Jarosław Kaczyński and successfully put forward Andrzej Duda and Beata Szydło. When PiS won in 2019, Tusk was also not involved in Polish politics. When he returned, PiS directed all its energy against him. And it had to give up power. From a political point of view, Donald Tusk can only be pleased by the fact that forces against him are increasing again, that they are writing about the 'red crow' on the walls. Personally, it's probably nothing pleasant, but at the same time it's a signal that the right will remain sterile for a longer time.” https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39774671-tusk-i-inne-obsesje-prawicy -- THE ENTIRE PRESIDENTIAL CENTER DANCES TO THE RHYTHM SET BY KACZYŃSKI, AND ULTIMATELY EVEN KONFEDERACJA FEELS THE NEED TO STAY WITHIN THAT RHYTHM - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “Kaczyński remains at the helm of the right. And the entire presidential center dances to the rhythm set by Kaczyński, and ultimately even Konfederacja feels the need to stay within that rhythm. This is a typical scenario for Kaczyński – a radical spectacle and apocalyptic fiction, concealing a very realistic practice of tough management of an increasingly cynical apparatus and electorate. On the one hand, declaring that the Sejm does not exist, and on the other, receiving a parliamentary salary by Kaczyński himself and his entire club.” -- IT ELIMINATES FROM THE GAME AND STRIPS OF AGENCY BOTH THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMP AND CONFEDERATES - MICHALSKI FURTHER: “No one but Kaczyński can maintain this range between hysterical apocalyptic language and realistic, pragmatic, if not to say cynical, practice, which – as we have already discussed – eliminates from the game and strips of agency both the presidential camp and the Confederates.” -- TUSK FACES NO MAJOR POLITICAL RISKS - WRITES CEZARY MICHALSKI: “If the Tusk government, with at least relative success, manages to implement a specific mix of 'holding PiS accountable' (i.e., demolishing the Kaczyński and Ziobro formation both in image and through ongoing prosecutorial proceedings and personnel purges of the United Right) and real governance ('delivering' a significant portion of electoral promises and, more importantly, 'delivering' energy prices that are bearable for Poles, the shape of the state budget, raises, cuts, and redistribution), governing for the next year 'in the grey zone' (without legislation and sometimes with disputed legal basis) would not carry major political risks.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-najbardziej-jalowy-scenariusz-polskiej-polityki,nId,7307938 -- BIRTHDAYS: Zbigniew Rau, Andrzej Kosiniak-Kamysz, Michał Kołodziejczyk, Błażej Poboży, Rafał Muchacki. SUNDAY: Joachim Brudziński, Stefan Niesiołowski, Elżbieta Bieńkowska, Marek Sowa, Arkadiusz Mularczyk, Grzegorz Jarzyna.