state of play: 02/02/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Tusk Has Taken All the Chips in Political Poker, Jarosław Kurski: Mr. President, You Are No Longer Relevant, Szczęśniak: Tusk Believes KO Can Defeat PiS Alone

Łukasz Mężyk

-- GRABIEC: THE PRESIDENT, DESPITE HIS VERBAL DECLARATIONS, IS PURSUING A POLICY OF CONFRONTATION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/02/02/ -- TUSK HAS TAKEN ALL THE CHIPS IN POLITICAL POKER - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “Andrzej Duda and PiS took their opposition to Donald Tusk's coalition to an extreme, and in the end, they tucked their tails between their legs: despite their lamentations about dictatorship, the fall of democracy, and a Parliament that doesn't exist, they didn't want to risk early elections. This was an inevitable and costly retreat.” -- THE TRIBUNAL WILL BECOME A SPECTER INSTITUTION UNTIL THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN 2025 - DANIELEWSKI FURTHER IN OKO.PRESS: “Without prejudging the extent to which the above-mentioned resolution will be effective and legal, it will certainly have a very simple political effect: the ruling majority will consider all rulings of the Przyłębska Tribunal made with the participation of Mariusz Muszyński, Justyna Piskorski, Jarosław Wyrembak, Krystyna Pawłowicz, and Stanisław Piotrowicz to be non-existent. The Tribunal will thus become a specter institution until the presidential elections in 2025. Only after them will it be possible to swear in new judges, and then implement possible legislative solutions, or – in the short term, the least likely scenario – attempt to amend the constitution regarding constitutional judiciary.” -- THE NEW AUTHORITIES WILL TAKE KEY INSTITUTIONS FROM PiS WITHIN A FEW MONTHS - DANIELEWSKI FURTHER IN OKO: “Thus, within a few months, the new authorities will take key institutions previously seized by Jarosław Kaczyński's party (public media and the prosecutor's office) from PiS, or at least paralyze them (the Constitutional Tribunal). President Duda and Law and Justice will protest vehemently from time to time, but their resources and political capabilities are pure illusion. To the famous question of how many divisions they have, one can answer today that the president possibly has at his disposal a fleet of paper airplanes (such as the Council of Ministers summoned for mid-February). In the twilight, they may cast menacing shadows on the wall, but their combat value is zero.” https://oko.press/samoloty-z-papieru-prezydent-duda -- THE RULING CAMP IS PREPARING TO DEAL WITH JULIA PRZYŁĘBSKA'S TRIBUNAL DURING ANDRZEJ DUDA'S PLANNED FOREIGN TRIP - KAMIL DZIUBKA IN ONET: “The ruling camp is preparing to deal with Julia Przyłębska's tribunal during Andrzej Duda's planned foreign trip. Our source from Donald Tusk's circle confirms that a blow to the Constitutional Tribunal may be delivered at the next Sejm session. The government has been mobilized by the president's latest decision.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/napiecie-na-szczytach-wladzy-rosnie-andrzej-duda-nas-prowokuje/jpn1v2y,79cfc278 -- MR. PRESIDENT, YOU ARE NO LONGER RELEVANT. YES, YOU CAN STILL CAUSE TROUBLE AND OBSTRUCT, BUT YOU CANNOT STOP THE FLOW OF THE RIVER. YOUR FORMATION IS THE PAST, AND YOU YOURSELF ARE THE PAST - JAROSŁAW KURSKI IN GW: “During his pathetic attempt to prolong PiS's rule and entrust Morawiecki with forming a two-week government, Donald Tusk advised calm. He said: they are no longer relevant. The same must be said about Duda: he is no longer relevant. The President from PiS has fifteen months left. He can continue to waste them or fight for his future. It's not about any bonus. It's about mitigating circumstances that will influence a milder sentence for the thirteen constitutional offenses he has committed.” -- HE WOULD BE BETTER OFF TAKING CARE OF MITIGATING CIRCUMSTANCES BY SUPPORTING THE REBUILDING OF DEMOCRACY IN POLAND - KURSKI FURTHER: “The president has just announced the convocation of the Council of Ministers, where he intends to question ministers about the government's plans. Instead of posing as the supreme commander, he would be better off taking care of mitigating circumstances by supporting the rebuilding of democracy in Poland.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30657455,andrzej-duda-zywa-skamielina-pisowskiej-polski.html -- OUTSIDE OF OFFICIAL SITUATIONS, THE PRESIDENT HAS NOT SPOKEN WITH JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI FOR YEARS - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: "Nowogrodzka [PiS headquarters], with the chairman at the helm, often learns about Duda's moves from the media. The PiS central office is, in fact, furious with Duda.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30658284,wiadomo-od-kiedy-duda-nie-rozmawia-z-kaczynskim-zaskakujace.html -- THE DEMOCRATIC CAMP IS TRYING TO RIDICULE THE PRESIDENT - RAFAŁ WOŚ IN INTERIA: “Their goal is to neutralize the president, whose very existence is a crack in their sense of omnipotence. Elected by 10.5 million fellow citizens, Andrzej Duda is a real symbol that the power of the victors of October 15 is not and cannot be absolute. And that even they must reckon with the fact that someone will tell them 'stop,' that they will block their actions. They don't want this. They fear it. It doesn't fit their increasingly absurd conviction that they are 'fixing democracy.' The consequences? They will be obvious. What is happening now is taking us light-years back in building a civilized, democratic, and just state. But does any of the mobbers of democracy, convinced of their absolute moral rightness, still care even a little? And did they ever care?” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-oboz-demokratyczny-probuje-osmieszyc-prezydenta,nId,7305671 -- PO ACTIVISTS IN SOME REGIONS ARE SAID TO BE CONVINCED THAT THEY LOST PARLIAMENTARY SEATS DUE TO THE THIRD WAY. AND IF SO, THE SAME MISTAKE SHOULD NOT BE REPEATED WITH NEW LEFT IN THE LOCAL ELECTIONS - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO.PRESS: “'Poland 2050 might not have had a mandate in Gdańsk. Agnieszka Buczyńska owes her mandate to Platforma' – we hear. Another PO politician offers us a witticism: 'We were too kind to the animals.' PO activists in some regions are reportedly convinced that they lost parliamentary seats due to the Third Way. And if so, the same mistake should not be repeated with New Left in the local elections. Especially since the political situation is beginning to shape up into a dream scenario for both Platforma and the entire Civic Coalition. Law and Justice is clearly on the defensive, most polls show KO drawing with Kaczyński's party, and a CBOS survey from the end of January even shows a so-called overtake: Tusk's formation is several points ahead of its eternal enemy.” -- THERE IS NO DOUBT IN PO – IF TUSK PERSONALLY BELIEVES THAT KO CAN DEFEAT PiS ALONE IN THE REGIONAL ELECTIONS, THEN THAT IS SIMPLY HOW IT WILL BE - SZCZĘŚNIAK FURTHER: “There are no doubts in PO – if Tusk personally believes that KO is capable of defeating PiS alone in the regional elections and does not need the help of Czarzasty and Biedroń for this, then that is simply how it will be. 'If Donald came to that conclusion, then I have no more questions. He was right on so many issues in the past campaign that we have to trust him on this too' – we hear from a Platforma politician.” https://oko.press/dlaczego-ko-i-nowa-lewica-nie-wystartuja-razem -- WE ARE RAPIDLY SLIDING TOWARDS BRUTAL DICTATORSHIP - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “With each passing day, this 'limited state of emergency' forcefully introduced by Tusk becomes less limited. We are rapidly sliding towards brutal dictatorship. Not only TVP, the National Bank of Poland, the National Council of the Judiciary, and the National Prosecutor's Office are being taken over by the authorities through police action. A minister enters, without legal basis, with some hastily concocted resolution tucked under his arm, and replaces locks, evicts people appointed for terms. The media chirp with delight that no one has ever thought of this, that Tusk is so efficient. They don't know history: Bierut and Jaruzelski did this, all occupiers did this. In every African country plagued by coups, a warlord triumphing at another turn of history acts this way. This is what every tyranny and all lawlessness entails.” -- IN FACT, THE SYSTEM OF POLAND FUNDAMENTALLY SHAPED AFTER 1989 – AND MORE OR LESS RESPECTED BY ALL GOVERNMENTS – NO LONGER EXISTS - KARNOWSKI FURTHER: “In fact, the system of Poland fundamentally shaped after 1989 – and more or less respected by all governments – no longer exists. We have a new, incredibly primitive, cruel country that is destroying the nation: the victor takes everything, cuts down his predecessors to the bone, and is not limited by any rules. After just seven weeks of Tusk's government, the Constitution is now a piece of paper. This was done to Poland by people who even wrote the word on their underwear. What is astonishing is their conviction that they have harnessed Poland forever, that nothing will ever happen here again, that power will never change, and that there will be no punishment for crimes against democracy and the rule of law.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/680438-szybko-osuwamy-sie-ku-brutalnej-dyktaturze -- SZYMON HOŁOWNIA'S PLAN IS WORKING FOR NOW - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “What primarily threatens Hołownia at the moment is that his successes are coming too early. There is a year and a half until the presidential elections – that's a lot of time to make mistakes, get involved in some costly political conflict, or simply become overexposed to public opinion and create a sense of saturation. Hołownia has experienced this before – after the 2020 presidential elections and his bold entry into politics, at one point Poland 2050 began to catch up with and overtake PO, but then Donald Tusk returned, and Hołownia's party lost momentum to such an extent that just two months before the elections, the scenario where Poland 2050, even with PSL, would not cross the 8% threshold was seriously considered. But if what doesn't kill us makes us stronger – then in a year and a half, we can expect a fierce battle between Trzaskowski and Hołownia, the outcome of which is becoming increasingly uncertain.” https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art39774131-artur-bartkiewicz-sondazowe-sukcesy-marszalka-sejmu-plan-szymona-holowni-na-razie-dziala -- ONLY 24% OF THIRD WAY VOTERS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A REFERENDUM. ALMOST 65% WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LAW PASSED CONSISTENT WITH THE KO AND LEFT'S PROPOSALS - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “The most determined are Left voters: 100% of them indicated passing a law ensuring legal abortion up to the 12th week. The views of people voting for KO differ slightly: 85% want a change in the law by the Sejm, 11% would prefer a referendum, and 4% have no opinion. Interestingly, the option of passing laws proposed by the Left and KO clearly prevails among Third Way voters: 64% of respondents in this group favor the legislative option, and 24% favor a referendum.” https://www.rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art39775831-sondaz-ponad-polowa-polakow-chce-legalnej-aborcji-do-12-tygodnia-ciazy -- THE PRIME MINISTER WILL SOON, PROBABLY IN FEBRUARY, VISIT FRANCE AND GERMANY – “RZECZPOSPOLITA” LEARNS. THE WEIMAR TRIANGLE IS BECOMING THE HEART OF POLISH FOREIGN POLICY - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ: https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39777011-znamy-plany-najblizszych-podrozy-zagranicznych-donalda-tuska -- 18 YEARS AGO: Leaders of PiS, Samoobrona RP, and LPR signed the so-called stabilization pact. The ceremony was broadcast live only by Telewizja Trwam, in response to which other media refused to participate in the re-signing of the pact, which was later staged for them. -- BIRTHDAYS: Marcin Libicki, Piotr Naimski, Małgorzata Wypych, Roman Imielski.

Łukasz Mężyk