state of play: 01/31/2024
STATE OF PLAY: GW: Constitutional Tribunal 'going all out', Janicki: Escalation is sometimes unavoidable and for the good of democracy, Dziubka: Tusk decided he can overtake PiS on his own at the finish line
-- KIERWIŃSKI ON LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS: THE OPTIMAL SOLUTION WILL BE THE VARIANT WE USED DURING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/01/31/
-- WE ARE GOING ALL OUT. THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL WILL NOT BE IN ITS CURRENT COMPOSITION – IMPORTANT COALITION POLITICIAN QUOTED BY IWONA SZPALA AND ŁUKASZ WOŹNICKI IN GW: “At the next Sejm session, starting on February 7, the ruling coalition intends to address the reform of the Constitutional Tribunal – 'Wyborcza' has learned. – Without going into details, I will say that after the decisions made by the coalition leaders, we are going all out. The Constitutional Tribunal will not be in its current composition – a prominent coalition politician, who wishes to remain anonymous, tells us”.
-- THE PLAN IS FOR THIS TO BE THE CLOSEST SEJM SESSION. DEPUTIES CONVENE ON FEBRUARY 7 – SZPALA AND WOŹNICKI FURTHER IN GW: “The events are to unfold in the Sejm chamber. The plan is for this to be the closest Sejm session. Deputies convene on February 7 and will work for three days. Our contact at the Ministry of Justice confirms that draft Sejm resolutions regarding the Tribunal are ready. This is information shared by Adam Bodnar with his officials, but he did not provide details”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30648125,po-mediach-i-prokuraturze-rzad-bierze-sie-za-trybunal-pojdziemy.html
-- ESCALATION IS SOMETIMES UNAVOIDABLE AND FOR THE GOOD OF DEMOCRACY – MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Escalation is sometimes unavoidable and for the good of democracy. There is a fairly widespread belief that reducing social tension is always a priority and everything should be subordinated to it. But it doesn't have to be that way. Patching up fundamental systemic and civilizational differences, reducing them to personal conflicts, trivializing systemic disputes, not only does not accelerate so-called reconciliation, but actually pushes it further away”.
-- AS A RESULT, THE IMPRESSION WAS TO BE CREATED THAT TWO BANDS, SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER, WERE FIGHTING, PUSHING THEIR WAY TO THE TROUGH. KACZYŃSKI ALWAYS LIKED SUCH A VISION OF POLITICS, BECAUSE IT DISCOURAGED LESS INFORMED VOTERS – JANICKI FURTHER: “As a result, the impression was to be created that two bands, similar to each other, were fighting, pushing their way to the trough. Kaczyński always liked such a vision of politics, because it discouraged less informed voters, and he could always count on his army. In this context, perhaps the most falsified concept of the last decade was created, namely 'two warring tribes' that spoil the atmosphere, therefore Tusk and Kaczyński should finally free the country from themselves. The PiS leader has always been in favor of this, although he did not intend to step down. Because PiS is considered a cultural phenomenon, permanently fused with the landscape and therefore eternal. The rest is incidental and subject to change. How often do we hear that 'PiS will not disappear anyway'. This is not said about PO, Third Way, or The Left”.
-- THIS CHOICE IS BLACK AND WHITE AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR THE SAKE OF CLARITY – MARIUSZ JANICKI'S CONCLUSION: “However, a tendency is already visible, and it may intensify, towards diluting the conflict, presenting it as a 'legal dispute', 'parallel justice system', 'constitutional crisis', where both sides have valid points and they need to be reconciled for the national interest. But it is precisely this interest that requires that these incompatible political and ideological systems not be reconciled, but rather that the differences be maintained and emphasized. There is no no man's land between PiS and the democratic parties; the silently treated, condescendingly perceived, silent majority does not inhabit it. This choice is black and white and should remain so for the sake of clarity”.
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2243539,1,mit-pojednania-kaczynski-sie-nigdy-nie-cofa-to-niech-sie-cofnie-tusk-komu-ma-to-sluzyc.read
-- SOME CENTER AND MODERATE CIVIC COALITION VOTERS WHO, DISGUSTED BY COOPERATION WITH CZARZASTY AND COMPANY, COULD JOIN THE THIRD WAY ELECTORATE – KAMIL DZIUBKA IN ONET: “- Maybe Tusk will throw us under the bus this way? I don't know if that was the intention. I doubt it. This alliance really paid off for us, but the sum of our support and KO's support could have yielded a truly impressive result – we hear from a Left MP. Meanwhile, critics of cooperation with the Left in Civic Platform believed it could be the opposite. They argued that 30% for KO and 9% for the Left could ultimately result in, for example, 34% instead of 39% support. This would be due to the discouragement of some center and moderate Civic Platform voters, who, put off by cooperation with Czarzasty and company, could join the Third Way electorate. This was supposed to be confirmed by recent surveys commissioned by PO”.
-- PRE-ELECTION FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE THIRD WAY CAN COUNT ON OVER 120 REGIONAL ASSEMBLY COUNCILORS. CURRENTLY, PSL HAS JUST OVER 60 SEATS – DZIUBKA WRITES IN ONET: “PSL and Poland 2050 are growing stronger. Pre-election forecasts indicate that the Third Way can count on over 120 regional assembly councilors. Currently, PSL has just over 60 seats at this level of local government. This, combined with PiS's expected loss of up to 70 seats in regional assemblies, could give the ruling camp control over the vast majority of regions. Therefore, by deciding to run independently, Donald Tusk is also trying not to inflame the situation within the coalition”.
-- RECENT POLLS HAVE CONVINCED TUSK THAT KO CAN INDEPENDENTLY OVERTAKE PIS – DZIUBKA FURTHER IN ONET: “As we hear, the head of government decided on such a move for another reason. Recent polls have convinced him that KO is capable of independently overtaking Law and Justice in the local government elections. Because it is very likely that Jarosław Kaczyński will be stripped of power in almost all regional assemblies, and this will happen regardless of the configuration in which the ruling parties run”.
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/kulisy-wyborczej-wolty-donalda-tuska-wrzuci-nas-pod-pociag/edwwp8d,79cfc278
-- EVERYONE WANTS TO GO TO the EP EXCEPT KACZYŃSKI AND MORAWIECKI – AGATA KONDZIŃSKA QUOTES A PiS POLITICIAN IN GW: “PiS is not lacking in candidates to run in the June European Parliament elections. - However, the leader has already announced that he does not want to weaken the parliamentary club, in which many MPs have government experience – we hear in Jarosław Kaczyński's party. An MEP has a five-year term with a monthly salary of over 7.5 thousand euros net, which is over 33,000 PLN, plus money for running an office, accommodation, and travel reimbursement, among other things. - Who from us wants to go to the EP? Everyone, except the leader and maybe Morawiecki, although even with him it's uncertain – a PiS politician jokes”.
-- KONDZIŃSKA ON THE INEVITABLE LOSS OF EP SEATS BY PiS: “PiS may lose its second seat in Łódź, in Gorzów Wielkopolski, in Lublin, in Poznań. And although politicians of Kaczyński's party assure that there are still a few months until the elections, there are whispers of informal arrangements. For example: Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, who opened the list in Warsaw five years ago, might be a candidate from Łódź. - Now he could be the leader there, and Małgorzata Gosiewska in the capital – a PiS politician tells us. Joanna Kopcińska, former spokesperson for Beata Szydło's government, is expected to lose her chance of re-election. - She lost the favor of Janina Goss, but she also doesn't stand out in any way – jokes a politician from the region. Goss, a friend of the Kaczyński family, is the grey eminence of Łódź PiS”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30648295,politycy-pis-chca.html
-- THE PiS PUSH-BACK IS NO DIFFERENT FROM THE SMILING, EUROPEAN PUSH-BACK – MAGDALENA CHRZCZONOWICZ IN OKO.PRESS QUOTES ZANDBERG: “In this chamber, the most widespread disease is one-eyed blindness. The PiS push-back is no different from the smiling, European push-back; the violence, harm, and death are exactly the same” – Adrian Zandberg from Razem (The Left) said in the Sejm”.
https://oko.press/w-sejmie-o-granicy-z-bialorusia-pis-owski-push-back-nie-rozni-sie-od-usmiechnietego-push-backu
-- 66%, BELIEVE THAT KACZYŃSKI SHOULD RESIGN AS CHAIRMAN OF PiS AND SHOULD ACCELERATE HIS DECISION – RZ POLL: “The majority of respondents in an IBRiS poll, as many as 66%, believe that Kaczyński should resign as chairman of PiS and should accelerate his decision and announce it this year. 26.9% of those surveyed are of the opposite opinion, and 7.1% have no opinion”.
-- MORAWIECKI AND CZARNEK HAVE THE MOST VOTES: “14.2% of respondents believe that the former Prime Minister should be the new leader of the largest opposition party. Less popular than the former head of government is Przemysław Czarnek, who is the second choice of respondents (7.3%) for the future leader of the formation. In subsequent places are Mariusz Błaszczak, former Minister of National Defense (4.8%), Beata Szydło (3.8%), and Joachim Brudziński (1.5%). As many as 33.9% would choose someone else, and 34.6% do not know who should become the new leader of PiS”.
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39764791-sondaz-jaroslaw-kaczynski-powinien-juz-odejsc-mateusz-morawiecki-na-prezesa-pis
-- WE KNOW THIS FROM THE HISTORY OF THE SOVIET UNION AND THE STORY OF THE KIM FAMILY IN KOREA; WHEN THE LEADER AND THE PARTY FORM A UNITY, ONE IS A LEADER UNTIL DEATH – BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “One can, of course, blame him for monopolizing leadership and not raising a successor, but it is hard to doubt that this time too, responsibility for the party will win in his political conscience, and he will not step down. We know this from the history of the Soviet Union and the story of the Kim family in Korea; when the leader and the party form a unity, one is a leader until death. And I think this is what awaits us”.
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39762191-boguslaw-chrabota-czy-jaroslaw-kaczynski-bedzie-wodzem-do-smierci
-- WE ARE FACING EIGHT YEARS OF PROSPEROUS CIVIC COALITION RULE AND EIGHT YEARS OF LEAN PIS RULE; THE GREATEST HARM TO THE POLITICAL SCENE IS CAUSED BY ONESELF – JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “If the predictions of the PiS leader are confirmed and the current coalition governs for eight years, then at the age of 82, which Kaczyński will be after Tusk's second term, it will be difficult for him to regain power. The leader's only hope lies in the mistakes made by the current team. Because PESEL (Poland's national identification number) is not Kaczyński's ally, and without the leader, PiS faces political twilight”.
-- TUSK'S POLICY IS NOT AIMED AT DESTROYING PIS, BUT AT ENSURING THAT KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY NEVER RETURNS TO POWER – NIZINKIEWICZ FURTHER IN RZ: “It will not disappear from the political scene, it will not disintegrate, and it will probably not split before the European elections, but its chances of returning to power are diminishing. Moreover, Donald Tusk's policy is not aimed at destroying PiS, but at ensuring that Kaczyński's party never returns to power”.
https://www.rp.pl/analizy/art39761661-czeka-nas-osiem-lat-tlustych-koalicji-obywatelskiej-i-osiem-lat-chudych-pis
-- PIS HAS RECOVERED, BUT MUST BE PREPARED FOR FURTHER WAVES OF LAWLESSNESS AND VIOLENCE – MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “October 15th was a national catastrophe. Polish affairs are going very badly. At the same time, however, Law and Justice – having endured a series of powerful blows – has regained its footing. The formation led by Jarosław Kaczyński remains the only real center that can change the unfavorable course we are on (although they are already preparing another diversion from the right flank). It also has a chance to broaden its base, appealing to groups and environments that will be victims of Tusk's government. It must be with the persecuted every day, everywhere, with everyone, politically and economically, like the people from the timber industry recently. In Poland, power usually erodes quite slowly. But Tusk's government has done and is doing everything to make this process faster this time. The moment signs of this appear, Law and Justice should be ready for a real counter-offensive, appropriately prepared for that moment”.
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/680180-prawo-i-sprawiedliwosc-ustalo-na-nogach
-- SPREADING "SEMANTIC CHAOS" AND DISTORTING THE MEANINGS OF BASIC WORDS WAS THE HALLMARK OF THE LAST EIGHT YEARS – JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN INTERIA: “Does this mean, however, that Jarosław Kaczyński has lost touch with reality, as some wish? In fact, from a certain point of view, this is irrelevant. Spreading 'semantic chaos', distorting the meanings of basic words was the hallmark of the last eight years – today we have only the premium version”.
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-czy-jaroslaw-kaczynski-na-serio-stracil-kontakt-z-rzeczywist,nId,7301300
-- THE NEW GOVERNMENT FACES THE OPPORTUNITY TO END THE PATHOLOGY OF "MILK COWS" IN STATE-OWNED COMPANIES – TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: “The new coalition promised to curb pathologies so that state giants would no longer be 'milk cows' for the chosen few. So far, however, apart from declarations, no steps have been taken to create a legal framework and criteria for employing professional staff. One can only hope that the settlements in, among others, the fuel and energy companies and the accompanying personnel carousel will be accompanied by reflection that it is high time to break this vicious cycle”.
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art39762271-tomasz-pietryga-trzeba-przerwac-bledne-kolo-w-panstwowych-spolkach
live
21 min
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Zandberg: The US Ambassador Seems to Have Forgotten Where He Works. Poland is Not a Colony
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